Is our understanding of aquatic ecosystems sufficient to quantify ecologically driven climate feedbacks?

The Earth functions as an integrated system-its current habitability to complex life is an emergent property dependent on interactions among biological, chemical, and physical components. As global warming affects ecosystem structure and function, so too will the biosphere affect climate by altering atmospheric gas composition and planetary albedo. Constraining these ecosystem-climate feedbacks is essential to accurately predict future change and develop mitigation strategies; however, the interplay among ecosystem processes complicates the assessment of their impact. Here, we explore the state-of-knowledge on how ecological and biological processes (e.g., competition, trophic interactions, metabolism, and adaptation) affect the directionality and magnitude of feedbacks between ecosystems and climate, using illustrative examples from the aquatic sphere. We argue that, despite ample evidence for the likely significance of many, our present understanding of the combinatorial effects of ecosystem dynamics precludes the robust quantification of most ecologically driven climate feedbacks. Constraining these effects must be prioritized within the ecological sciences for only by studying the biosphere as both subject and arbiter of global climate can we develop a sufficiently holistic view of the Earth system to accurately predict Earth's future and unravel its past.

La Terre fonctionne comme un système intégré­son habitabilité pour une vie complexe est une propriété émergente qui dépend des interactions entre les composantes biologiques, chimiques et physiques. Le réchauffement climatique affecte la structure et la fonction des écosystèmes, et en retour, la biosphère affecte également le climat en modifiant la composition des gaz atmosphériques et l'albédo planétaire. Il est essentiel de quantifier ces rétroactions entre les écosystèmes et le climat afin de prédire avec précision les changements futurs et élaborer des stratégies d'atténuation; cependant, l'interaction entre les processus écologiques complique l'évaluation de leurs impacts. Dans cet article, nous examinons l'état des connaissances sur la façon dont les processus écologiques et biologiques (par exemple, la concurrence, les interactions trophiques, le métabolisme, l'adaptation) affectent la directionnalité et l'ampleur des rétroactions entre les écosystèmes et le climat à l'aide d'exemples issus du monde aquatique. Nous soutenons que, malgré les nombreuses preuves de l'importance de plusieurs de ces rétroactions, notre compréhension limitée des effets additifs des processus écosystémiques empêche de faire une quantification robuste de la plupart des rétroactions climatiques d'origine écologique. Circonscrire ces effets doit être une priorité pour les sciences aquatiques, car ce n'est qu'en étudiant la biosphère en tant que sujet et arbitre du climat planétaire que nous pourrons développer une vision suffisamment holistique du système terrestre pour prédire avec précision l'avenir de la Terre et élucider son passé.

Change in body size in a rapidly warming marine ecosystem: Consequences of tropicalization.

Climate change is profoundly affecting the physical environment and biota of the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf ecosystem. To understand adaptations to climate change, in particular warming temperatures, we used bottom trawl survey data to describe the size of individual fish and macroinvertebrates. Using species distribution models to estimate abundance and biomass, we determined body size in weight for all modeled species. We demonstrate a tendency for increased abundance and biomass and a concomitant decline in body size over time. An analysis of length frequency data supports this assertion. There was no trend in the combined anthropogenic removals from the ecosystem, i.e. catches, suggesting a limited role of fisheries in influencing these changes. The changes in the fish and macroinvertebrate communities are consistent with the hypothesis of a tropicalization of this ecosystem, where the ecosystem experiences a change in diversity, abundance, biomass, and the size of individuals consistent with lower latitudes. The changes in how productivity is expressed in the ecosystem factors into how human populations relate to it; in a practical sense, change in body size will likely influence the strategies and efficiencies of harvest procedures and the industries built to support them.

Decadal-scale phenology and seasonal climate drivers of migratory baleen whales in a rapidly warming marine ecosystem.

Species' response to rapid climate change can be measured through shifts in timing of recurring biological events, known as phenology. The Gulf of Maine is one of the most rapidly warming regions of the ocean, and thus an ideal system to study phenological and biological responses to climate change. A better understanding of climate-induced changes in phenology is needed to effectively and adaptively manage human-wildlife conflicts. Using data from a 20+ year marine mammal observation program, we tested the hypothesis that the phenology of large whale habitat use in Cape Cod Bay has changed and is related to regional-scale shifts in the thermal onset of spring. We used a multi-season occupancy model to measure phenological shifts and evaluate trends in the date of peak habitat use for North Atlantic right (Eubalaena glacialis), humpback (Megaptera novaeangliae), and fin (Balaenoptera physalus) whales. The date of peak habitat use shifted by +18.1 days (0.90 days/year) for right whales and +19.1 days (0.96 days/year) for humpback whales. We then evaluated interannual variability in peak habitat use relative to thermal spring transition dates (STD), and hypothesized that right whales, as planktivorous specialist feeders, would exhibit a stronger response to thermal phenology than fin and humpback whales, which are more generalist piscivorous feeders. There was a significant negative effect of western region STD on right whale habitat use, and a significant positive effect of eastern region STD on fin whale habitat use indicating differential responses to spatial seasonal conditions. Protections for threatened and endangered whales have been designed to align with expected phenology of habitat use. Our results show that whales are becoming mismatched with static seasonal management measures through shifts in their timing of habitat use, and they suggest that effective management strategies may need to alter protections as species adapt to climate change.