Energy-socio-economic-environmental modelling for the EU energy and post-COVID-19 transitions.

Relevant energy questions have arisen because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic shock leads to emissions' reductions consistent with the rates of decrease required to achieve the Paris Agreement goals. Those unforeseen drastic reductions in emissions are temporary as long as they do not involve structural changes. However, the COVID-19 consequences and the subsequent policy response will affect the economy for decades. Focusing on the EU, this discussion article argues how recovery plans are an opportunity to deepen the way towards a low-carbon economy, improving at the same time employment, health, and equity and the role of modelling tools. Long-term alignment with the low-carbon path and the development of a resilient transition towards renewable sources should guide instruments and policies, conditioning aid to energy-intensive sectors such as transport, tourism, and the automotive industry. However, the potential dangers of short-termism and carbon leakage persist. The current energy-socio-economic-environmental modelling tools are precious to widen the scope and deal with these complex problems. The scientific community has to assess disparate, non-equilibrium, and non-ordinary scenarios, such as sectors and countries lockdowns, drastic changes in consumption patterns, significant investments in renewable energies, and disruptive technologies and incorporate uncertainty analysis. All these instruments will evaluate the cost-effectiveness of decarbonization options and potential consequences on employment, income distribution, and vulnerability.

Revisiting the role of steam methane reforming with CO2 capture and storage for long-term hydrogen production.

Road transport is associated with high greenhouse gas emissions due to its current dependence on fossil fuels. In this regard, the implementation of alternative fuels such as hydrogen is expected to play a key role in decarbonising the transport system. Nevertheless, attention should be paid to the suitability of hydrogen production pathways as low-carbon solutions. In this work, an energy systems optimisation model for the prospective assessment of a national hydrogen production mix was upgraded in order to unveil the potential role of grey hydrogen from steam methane reforming (SMR) and blue hydrogen from SMR with CO2 capture and storage (CCS) in satisfying the hydrogen demanded by fuel cell electric vehicles in Spain from 2020 to 2050. This was done by including CCS retrofit of SMR plants in the energy systems model, as a potential strategy within the scope of the European Hydrogen Strategy. Considering three hypothetical years for banning hydrogen from fossil-based plants without CCS (2030, 2035, and 2040), it was found that SMR could satisfy the whole demand for hydrogen for road transport in the short term (2020-2030), while being substituted by water electrolysis in the medium-to-long term (2030-2050). Furthermore, this trend was found to be associated with an appropriate prospective behaviour in terms of carbon footprint.

Long-term production technology mix of alternative fuels for road transport: A focus on Spain.

Road transport is one of the main sources of greenhouse gas emissions due to the current dependence on fossil fuels such as diesel and gasoline. This situation needs to be changed through the retirement of fossil fuels and the implementation of alternative fuels and vehicles such as biofuels, battery electric vehicles, and fuel cell electric vehicles fuelled by hydrogen. Nevertheless, the environmental suitability of alternative fuels is conditioned by how they are produced. Through the case study of Spain, this article prospectively assesses - from a techno-economic and carbon footprint perspective- the production technology mix of alternative fuels from 2020 to 2050. The proposed energy systems optimisation model includes a large number of production technologies regarding biofuels (bioethanol, biodiesel, synthetic diesel/gasoline, and hydrotreated vegetable oil), electricity, and hydrogen. The combined study of these fuels provides a relevant framework to discuss the targets established for the road transport sector with a high level of detail not only regarding fuel type but also technology breakdown. The results show the relevance of second-generation biofuel production technologies in fulfilling the future biofuel demand. Regarding the extra electricity demand associated with the penetration of electric vehicles, the results suggest a key role of wind- and solar-based technologies in meeting such a need. Concerning hydrogen as an option to decarbonise the transport system, even though steam methane reforming is the most mature and cost-competitive production technology, hydrogen production would be satisfied through electrolysis in order to avoid relying on fossil resources as the main feedstock. Overall, this integrated approach to the long-term production technology mix of alternative fuels for road transport is expected to be relevant to a wide range of decision-makers willing to prospectively assess road transport systems from a technology perspective.

Life-cycle consequences of internalising socio-environmental externalities of power generation.

Current national energy sectors are generally unsustainable. Within this context, energy policy-makers face the need to move from economy- to sustainability-oriented schemes. Beyond the integration of the sustainability concept into energy policies through the implementation of techno-economic, environmental and/or social restrictions, other approaches propose the use of externalities -based on life-cycle emissions- to deeply take into account sustainability in the design of the future energy system. In this sense, this work evaluates the consequences of internalising socio-environmental externalities associated with power generation. Besides the calculation of external costs of power generation technologies and their implementation in an energy systems optimisation model for Spain, the life-cycle consequences of this internalisation are explored. This involves the prospective analysis of the evolution of the sustainability indicators on which the externalities are founded, i.e. climate change and human health. For the first time, this is done by endogenously integrating the life-cycle indicators into the energy systems optimisation model. The results show that the internalisation of externalities highly influences the evolution of the electricity production mix as well as the corresponding life-cycle profile, hastening the decarbonisation of the power generation system and thus leading to a significant decrease in life-cycle impacts. This effect is observed both when internalising only climate change externalities and when internalising additionally human health external costs.