Integrating socio-economic vulnerability factors improves neighborhood-scale wastewater-based epidemiology for public health applications.

Wastewater Based Epidemiology (WBE) of COVID-19 is a low-cost, non-invasive, and inclusive early warning tool for disease spread. Previously studied WBE focused on sampling at wastewater treatment plant scale, limiting the level at which demographic and geographic variations in disease dynamics can be incorporated into the analysis of certain neighborhoods. This study demonstrates the integration of demographic mapping to improve the WBE of COVID-19 and associated post-COVID disease prediction (here kidney disease) at the neighborhood level using machine learning. WBE was conducted at six neighborhoods in Seattle during October 2020 - February 2022. Wastewater processing and RT-qPCR were performed to obtain SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration. Census data, clinical data of COVID-19, as well as patient data of acute kidney injury (AKI) cases reported during the study period were collected and the distribution across the city was studied using Geographic Information System (GIS) mapping. Further, we analyzed the data set to better understand socioeconomic impacts on disease prevalence of COVID-19 and AKI per neighborhood. The heterogeneity of eleven demographic factors (such as education and age among others) was observed within neighborhoods across the city of Seattle. Dynamics of COVID-19 clinical cases and wastewater SARS-CoV-2 varied across neighborhood with different levels of demographics. Machine learning models trained with data from the earlier stages of the pandemic were able to predict both COVID-19 and AKI incidence in the later stages of the pandemic (Spearman correlation coefficient of 0·546 - 0·904), with the most predictive model trained on the combination of wastewater data and demographics. The integration of demographics strengthened machine learning models' capabilities to predict prevalence of COVID-19, and of AKI as a marker for post-COVID sequelae. Demographic-based WBE presents an effective tool to monitor and manage public health beyond COVID-19 at the neighborhood level.

Case Study: Impact of Diurnal Variations and Stormwater Dilution on SARS-CoV-2 RNA Signal Intensity at Neighborhood Scale Wastewater Pumping Stations.

Wastewater based epidemiology (WBE) has emerged as a tool to track the spread of SARS-CoV-2. However, sampling at wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) cannot identify transmission hotspots within a city. Here, we sought to understand the diurnal variations (24 h) in SARS-CoV-2 RNA titers at the neighborhood level, using pump stations that serve vulnerable communities (e.g., essential workers, more diverse communities). Hourly composite samples were collected from wastewater pump stations located in (i) a residential area and (ii) a shopping district. In the residential area, SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration (N1, N2, and E assays) varied by up to 42-fold within a 24 h period. The highest viral load was observed between 5 and 7 am, when viral RNA was not diluted by stormwater. Normalizing peak concentrations during this time window with nutrient concentrations (N and P) enabled correcting for rainfall to connect sewage to clinical cases reported in the sewershed. Data from the shopping district pump station were inconsistent, probably due to the fluctuation of customers shopping at the mall. This work indicates pump stations serving the residential area offer a narrow time period of high signal intensity that could improve the sensitivity of WBE, and tracer compounds (N, P concentration) can be used to normalize SARS-CoV-2 signals during rainfall.

SARS-CoV-2 Viral Load on Admission Is Associated With 30-Day Mortality.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) viral load on admission was associated with a significantly increased 30-day mortality (odds ratio [OR], 4.20; 95% CI, 1.62-10.86), and anti-SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapisid IgG seropositivity on admission trended toward a reduced 30-day mortality (OR, 0.43; 95% CI, 0.15-1.26). Reporting of quantitative SARS-CoV-2 viral load and serologic assays may offer prognostic clinical information.