Ecological associations distribution modelling of marine plankton at a global scale.

Marine plankton communities form intricate networks of interacting organisms at the base of the food chain, and play a central role in regulating ocean biogeochemical cycles and climate. However, predicting plankton community shifts in response to climate change remains challenging. While species distribution models are valuable tools for predicting changes in species biogeography under climate change scenarios, they generally overlook the key role of biotic interactions, which can significantly shape ecological processes and ecosystem responses. Here, we introduce a novel statistical framework, association distribution modelling (ADM), designed to model and predict ecological associations distribution in space and time. Applied on a Tara Oceans genome-resolved metagenomics dataset, the present-day biogeography of ADM-inferred marine plankton associations revealed four major biogeographic biomes organized along a latitudinal gradient. We predicted the evolution of these biome-specific communities in response to a climate change scenario, highlighting differential responses to environmental change. Finally, we explored the functional potential of impacted plankton communities, focusing on carbon fixation, outlining the predicted evolution of its geographical distribution and implications for ecosystem function.This article is part of the theme issue 'Connected interactions: enriching food web research by spatial and social interactions'.

Genome-scale community modelling reveals conserved metabolic cross-feedings in epipelagic bacterioplankton communities.

Marine microorganisms form complex communities of interacting organisms that influence central ecosystem functions in the ocean such as primary production and nutrient cycling. Identifying the mechanisms controlling their assembly and activities is a major challenge in microbial ecology. Here, we integrated Tara Oceans meta-omics data to predict genome-scale community interactions within prokaryotic assemblages in the euphotic ocean. A global genome-resolved co-activity network revealed a significant number of inter-lineage associations across diverse phylogenetic distances. Identified co-active communities include species displaying smaller genomes but encoding a higher potential for quorum sensing, biofilm formation, and secondary metabolism. Community metabolic modelling reveals a higher potential for interaction within co-active communities and points towards conserved metabolic cross-feedings, in particular of specific amino acids and group B vitamins. Our integrated ecological and metabolic modelling approach suggests that genome streamlining and metabolic auxotrophies may act as joint mechanisms shaping bacterioplankton community assembly in the global ocean surface.