Spectrally refined unbiased Monte Carlo estimate of the Earth's global radiative cooling.

The Earth's radiative cooling is a key driver of climate. Determining how it is affected by greenhouse gas concentration is a core question in climate-change sciences. Due to the complexity of radiative transfer processes, current practices to estimate this cooling require the development and use of a suite of radiative transfer models whose accuracy diminishes as we move from local, instantaneous estimates to global estimates over the whole globe and over long periods of time (decades). Here, we show that recent advances in nonlinear Monte Carlo methods allow a paradigm shift: a completely unbiased estimate of the Earth's infrared cooling to space can be produced using a single model, integrating the most refined spectroscopic models of molecular gas energy transitions over a global scale and over years, all at a very low computational cost (a few seconds).

Coupling radiative, conductive and convective heat-transfers in a single Monte Carlo algorithm: A general theoretical framework for linear situations.

It was recently shown that radiation, conduction and convection can be combined within a single Monte Carlo algorithm and that such an algorithm immediately benefits from state-of-the-art computer-graphics advances when dealing with complex geometries. The theoretical foundations that make this coupling possible are fully exposed for the first time, supporting the intuitive pictures of continuous thermal paths that run through the different physics at work. First, the theoretical frameworks of propagators and Green's functions are used to demonstrate that a coupled model involving different physical phenomena can be probabilized. Second, they are extended and made operational using the Feynman-Kac theory and stochastic processes. Finally, the theoretical framework is supported by a new proposal for an approximation of coupled Brownian trajectories compatible with the algorithmic design required by ray-tracing acceleration techniques in highly refined geometry.

Modeling bee movement shows how a perceptual masking effect can influence flower discovery.

Understanding how pollinators move across space is key to understanding plant mating patterns. Bees are typically assumed to search for flowers randomly or using simple movement rules, so that the probability of discovering a flower should primarily depend on its distance to the nest. However, experimental work shows this is not always the case. Here, we explored the influence of flower size and density on their probability of being discovered by bees by developing a movement model of central place foraging bees, based on experimental data collected on bumblebees. Our model produces realistic bee trajectories by taking into account the autocorrelation of the bee's angular speed, the attraction to the nest (homing), and a gaussian noise. Simulations revealed a « masking effect ¼ that reduces the detection of flowers close to another, with potential far reaching consequences on plant-pollinator interactions. At the plant level, flowers distant to the nest were more often discovered by bees in low density environments. At the bee colony level, foragers found more flowers when they were small and at medium densities. Our results indicate that the processes of search and discovery of resources are potentially more complex than usually assumed, and question the importance of resource distribution and abundance on bee foraging success and plant pollination.

Are general circulation models obsolete?

Traditional general circulation models, or GCMs-that is, three-dimensional dynamical models with unresolved terms represented in equations with tunable parameters-have been a mainstay of climate research for several decades, and some of the pioneering studies have recently been recognized by a Nobel prize in Physics. Yet, there is considerable debate around their continuing role in the future. Frequently mentioned as limitations of GCMs are the structural error and uncertainty across models with different representations of unresolved scales and the fact that the models are tuned to reproduce certain aspects of the observed Earth. We consider these shortcomings in the context of a future generation of models that may address these issues through substantially higher resolution and detail, or through the use of machine learning techniques to match them better to observations, theory, and process models. It is our contention that calibration, far from being a weakness of models, is an essential element in the simulation of complex systems, and contributes to our understanding of their inner workings. Models can be calibrated to reveal both fine-scale detail and the global response to external perturbations. New methods enable us to articulate and improve the connections between the different levels of abstract representation of climate processes, and our understanding resides in an entire hierarchy of models where GCMs will continue to play a central role for the foreseeable future.

Analyzing time-to-first-spike coding schemes: A theoretical approach.

Spiking neural networks (SNNs) using time-to-first-spike (TTFS) codes, in which neurons fire at most once, are appealing for rapid and low power processing. In this theoretical paper, we focus on information coding and decoding in those networks, and introduce a new unifying mathematical framework that allows the comparison of various coding schemes. In an early proposal, called rank-order coding (ROC), neurons are maximally activated when inputs arrive in the order of their synaptic weights, thanks to a shunting inhibition mechanism that progressively desensitizes the neurons as spikes arrive. In another proposal, called NoM coding, only the first N spikes of M input neurons are propagated, and these "first spike patterns" can be readout by downstream neurons with homogeneous weights and no desensitization: as a result, the exact order between the first spikes does not matter. This paper also introduces a third option-"Ranked-NoM" (R-NoM), which combines features from both ROC and NoM coding schemes: only the first N input spikes are propagated, but their order is readout by downstream neurons thanks to inhomogeneous weights and linear desensitization. The unifying mathematical framework allows the three codes to be compared in terms of discriminability, which measures to what extent a neuron responds more strongly to its preferred input spike pattern than to random patterns. This discriminability turns out to be much higher for R-NoM than for the other codes, especially in the early phase of the responses. We also argue that R-NoM is much more hardware-friendly than the original ROC proposal, although NoM remains the easiest to implement in hardware because it only requires binary synapses.

The "teapot in a city": A paradigm shift in urban climate modeling.

Urban areas are a high-stake target of climate change mitigation and adaptation measures. To understand, predict, and improve the energy performance of cities, the scientific community develops numerical models that describe how they interact with the atmosphere through heat and moisture exchanges at all scales. In this review, we present recent advances that are at the origin of last decade's revolution in computer graphics, and recent breakthroughs in statistical physics that extend well-established path-integral formulations to nonlinear coupled models. We argue that this rare conjunction of scientific advances in mathematics, physics, computer, and engineering sciences opens promising avenues for urban climate modeling and illustrate this with coupled heat transfer simulations in complex urban geometries under complex atmospheric conditions. We highlight the potential of these approaches beyond urban climate modeling for the necessary appropriation of the issues at the heart of the energy transition by societies.

Single-cell imaging of the cell cycle reveals CDC25B-induced heterogeneity of G1 phase length in neural progenitor cells.

Although lengthening of the cell cycle and G1 phase is a generic feature of tissue maturation during development, the underlying mechanism remains poorly understood. Here, we develop a time-lapse imaging strategy to measure the four cell cycle phases in single chick neural progenitor cells in their endogenous environment. We show that neural progenitors are widely heterogeneous with respect to cell cycle length. This variability in duration is distributed over all phases of the cell cycle, with the G1 phase contributing the most. Within one cell cycle, each phase duration appears stochastic and independent except for a correlation between S and M phase duration. Lineage analysis indicates that the majority of daughter cells may have a longer G1 phase than mother cells, suggesting that, at each cell cycle, a mechanism lengthens the G1 phase. We identify that the CDC25B phosphatase known to regulate the G2/M transition indirectly increases the duration of the G1 phase, partly through delaying passage through the restriction point. We propose that CDC25B increases the heterogeneity of G1 phase length, revealing a previously undescribed mechanism of G1 lengthening that is associated with tissue development.

Addressing the gas kinetics Boltzmann equation with branching-path statistics.

This article proposes a statistical numerical method to address gas kinetics problems obeying the Boltzmann equation. This method is inspired by Monte Carlo algorithms used in linear transport physics, where virtual particles are followed backwards in time along their paths. The nonlinear character of gas kinetics translates, in the numerical simulations presented here, into branchings of the virtual particle paths. The obtained algorithms have displayed in the few tests presented here two noticeable qualities: (1) they involve no mesh and (2) they allow one to easily compute the gas density at rarefied places of the phase space, for example, at high kinetic energy.

A model of resource partitioning between foraging bees based on learning.

Central place foraging pollinators tend to develop multi-destination routes (traplines) to exploit patchily distributed plant resources. While the formation of traplines by individual pollinators has been studied in detail, how populations of foragers use resources in a common area is an open question, difficult to address experimentally. We explored conditions for the emergence of resource partitioning among traplining bees using agent-based models built from experimental data of bumblebees foraging on artificial flowers. In the models, bees learn to develop routes as a consequence of feedback loops that change their probabilities of moving between flowers. While a positive reinforcement of movements leading to rewarding flowers is sufficient for the emergence of resource partitioning when flowers are evenly distributed, the addition of a negative reinforcement of movements leading to unrewarding flowers is necessary when flowers are patchily distributed. In environments with more complex spatial structures, the negative experiences of individual bees on flowers favour spatial segregation and efficient collective foraging. Our study fills a major gap in modelling pollinator behaviour and constitutes a unique tool to guide future experimental programs.

Long-Term Dietary Restriction Leads to Development of Alternative Fighting Strategies.

In competition for food, mates and territory, most animal species display aggressive behavior through visual threats and/or physical attacks. Such naturally-complex social behaviors have been shaped by evolution. Environmental pressure, such as the one imposed by dietary regimes, forces animals to adapt to specific conditions and ultimately to develop alternative behavioral strategies. The quality of the food resource during contests influence animals' aggression levels. However, little is known regarding the effects of a long-term dietary restriction-based environmental pressure on the development of alternative fighting strategies. To address this, we employed two lines of the wild-type Drosophila melanogaster Canton-S (CS) which originated from the same population but raised under two distinct diets for years. One diet contained both proteins and sugar, while the second one was sugar-free. We set up male-male aggression assays using both CS lines and found differences in aggression levels and the fighting strategies employed to establish dominance relationships. CS males raised on a sugar-containing diet started fights with a physical attack and employed a high number of lunges for establishing dominance but displayed few wing threats throughout the fight. In contrast, the sugar-free-raised males favored wing threats as an initial aggressive demonstration and used fewer lunges to establish dominance, but displayed a higher number of wing threats. This study demonstrates that fruit flies that have been raised under different dietary conditions have adapted their patterns of aggressive behavior and developed distinct fighting strategies: one favoring physical attacks, while the other one favoring visual threats.

Ant Foragers Compensate for the Nutritional Deficiencies in the Colony.

Achieving nutritional homeostasis is crucial for the fitness of all living organisms [1]. Using "collective wisdom," ants have been shown to excel at making rapid and appropriate decisions under various contexts [2, 3], including foraging [4-7]. Ants often use pheromone trails to share information about food resources [8-10], a process allowing them to focus their foraging activity on the best food source available [7, 11-14]. However, what constitutes the best food source depends on the nutritional context of the colony in relation to its food environment [15]. In this study, we exposed ant colonies to various nutrient deficiencies and observed their compensatory nutritional responses. Ants were deprived of carbohydrate, sterol, protein, a subset of amino acids, or a single amino acid. We found that ants were rapidly able to match their foraging decisions to their nutritional needs, even if the deficiency concerned a single amino acid. An individual-based model demonstrates that these impressive feats of nutritional compensation can emerge from the iterative process of trail-laying behavior, which relies on a simple individual decision: to eat or not to eat. Our results show that, by adjusting their feeding behavior at the individual level, ants sustain homeostasis at the colony level.

Experimental investigation of ant traffic under crowded conditions.

Efficient transportation is crucial for urban mobility, cell function and the survival of animal groups. From humans driving on the highway, to ants running on a trail, the main challenge faced by all collective systems is how to prevent traffic jams in crowded environments. Here, we show that ants, despite their behavioral simplicity, have managed the tour de force of avoiding the formation of traffic jams at high density. At the macroscopic level, we demonstrated that ant traffic is best described by a two-phase flow function. At low densities there is a clear linear relationship between ant density and the flow, while at large density, the flow remains constant and no congestion occurs. From a microscopic perspective, the individual tracking of ants under varying densities revealed that ants adjust their speed and avoid time consuming interactions at large densities. Our results point to strategies by which ant colonies solve the main challenge of transportation by self-regulating their behavior.

Timing the spinal cord development with neural progenitor cells losing their proliferative capacity: a theoretical analysis.

In the developing neural tube in chicken and mammals, neural stem cells proliferate and differentiate according to a stereotyped spatiotemporal pattern. Several actors have been identified in the control of this process, from tissue-scale morphogens patterning to intrinsic determinants in neural progenitor cells. In a previous study (Bonnet et al. eLife 7, 2018), we have shown that the CDC25B phosphatase promotes the transition from proliferation to differentiation by stimulating neurogenic divisions, suggesting that it acts as a maturating factor for neural progenitors. In this previous study, we set up a mathematical model linking fixed progenitor modes of division to the dynamics of progenitors and differentiated populations. Here, we extend this model over time to propose a complete dynamical picture of this process. We start from the standard paradigm that progenitors are homogeneous and can perform any type of divisions (proliferative division yielding two progenitors, asymmetric neurogenic divisions yielding one progenitor and one neuron, and terminal symmetric divisions yielding two neurons). We calibrate this model using data published by Saade et al. (Cell Reports 4, 2013) about mode of divisions and population dynamics of progenitors/neurons at different developmental stages. Next, we explore the scenarios in which the progenitor population is actually split into two different pools, one of which is composed of cells that have lost the capacity to perform proliferative divisions. The scenario in which asymmetric neurogenic division would induce such a loss of proliferative capacity appears very relevant.

Traveling pulse emerges from coupled intermittent walks: A case study in sheep.

Monitoring small groups of sheep in spontaneous evolution in the field, we decipher behavioural rules that sheep follow at the individual scale in order to sustain collective motion. Individuals alternate grazing mode at null speed and moving mode at walking speed, so cohesive motion stems from synchronising when they decide to switch between the two modes. We propose a model for the individual decision making process, based on switching rates between stopped / walking states that depend on behind / ahead locations and states of the others. We parametrize this model from data. Next, we translate this (microscopic) individual-based model into its density-flow (macroscopic) equations counterpart. Numerical solving these equations display a traveling pulse propagating at constant speed even though each individual is at any moment either stopped or walking. Considering the minimal model embedded in these equations, we derive analytically the steady shape of the pulse (sech square). The parameters of the pulse (shape and speed) are expressed as functions of individual parameters. This pulse emerges from the non linear coupling of start/stop individual decisions which compensate exactly for diffusion and promotes a steady ratio of walking / stopped individuals, which in turn determines the traveling speed of the pulse. The system seems to converge to this pulse from any initial condition, and to recover the pulse after perturbation. This gives a high robustness to this coordination mechanism.

Addressing nonlinearities in Monte Carlo.

Monte Carlo is famous for accepting model extensions and model refinements up to infinite dimension. However, this powerful incremental design is based on a premise which has severely limited its application so far: a state-variable can only be recursively defined as a function of underlying state-variables if this function is linear. Here we show that this premise can be alleviated by projecting nonlinearities onto a polynomial basis and increasing the configuration space dimension. Considering phytoplankton growth in light-limited environments, radiative transfer in planetary atmospheres, electromagnetic scattering by particles, and concentrated solar power plant production, we prove the real-world usability of this advance in four test cases which were previously regarded as impracticable using Monte Carlo approaches. We also illustrate an outstanding feature of our method when applied to acute problems with interacting particles: handling rare events is now straightforward. Overall, our extension preserves the features that made the method popular: addressing nonlinearities does not compromise on model refinement or system complexity, and convergence rates remain independent of dimension.

Neurogenic decisions require a cell cycle independent function of the CDC25B phosphatase.

A fundamental issue in developmental biology and in organ homeostasis is understanding the molecular mechanisms governing the balance between stem cell maintenance and differentiation into a specific lineage. Accumulating data suggest that cell cycle dynamics play a major role in the regulation of this balance. Here we show that the G2/M cell cycle regulator CDC25B phosphatase is required in mammals to finely tune neuronal production in the neural tube. We show that in chick neural progenitors, CDC25B activity favors fast nuclei departure from the apical surface in early G1, stimulates neurogenic divisions and promotes neuronal differentiation. We design a mathematical model showing that within a limited period of time, cell cycle length modifications cannot account for changes in the ratio of the mode of division. Using a CDC25B point mutation that cannot interact with CDK, we show that part of CDC25B activity is independent of its action on the cell cycle.

Stigmergic construction and topochemical information shape ant nest architecture.

The nests of social insects are not only impressive because of their sheer complexity but also because they are built from individuals whose work is not centrally coordinated. A key question is how groups of insects coordinate their building actions. Here, we use a combination of experimental and modeling approaches to investigate nest construction in the ant Lasius niger. We quantify the construction dynamics and the 3D structures built by ants. Then, we characterize individual behaviors and the interactions of ants with the structures they build. We show that two main interactions are involved in the coordination of building actions: (i) a stigmergic-based interaction that controls the amplification of depositions at some locations and is attributable to a pheromone added by ants to the building material; and (ii) a template-based interaction in which ants use their body size as a cue to control the height at which they start to build a roof from existing pillars. We then develop a 3D stochastic model based on these individual behaviors to analyze the effect of pheromone presence and strength on construction dynamics. We show that the model can quantitatively reproduce key features of construction dynamics, including a large-scale pattern of regularly spaced pillars, the formation and merging of caps over the pillars, and the remodeling of built structures. Finally, our model suggests that the lifetime of the pheromone is a highly influential parameter that controls the growth and form of nest architecture.

Imitation Combined with a Characteristic Stimulus Duration Results in Robust Collective Decision-Making.

For group-living animals, reaching consensus to stay cohesive is crucial for their fitness, particularly when collective motion starts and stops. Understanding the decision-making at individual and collective levels upon sudden disturbances is central in the study of collective animal behavior, and concerns the broader question of how information is distributed and evaluated in groups. Despite the relevance of the problem, well-controlled experimental studies that quantify the collective response of groups facing disruptive events are lacking. Here we study the behavior of small-sized groups of uninformed individuals subject to the departure and stop of a trained conspecific. We find that the groups reach an effective consensus: either all uninformed individuals follow the trained one (and collective motion occurs) or none does. Combining experiments and a simple mathematical model we show that the observed phenomena results from the interplay between simple mimetic rules and the characteristic duration of the stimulus, here, the time during which the trained individual is moving away. The proposed mechanism strongly depends on group size, as observed in the experiments, and even if group splitting can occur, the most likely outcome is always a coherent collective group response (consensus). The prevalence of a consensus is expected even if the groups of naives face conflicting information, e.g. if groups contain two subgroups of trained individuals, one trained to stay and one trained to leave. Our results indicate that collective decision-making and consensus in (small) animal groups are likely to be self-organized phenomena that do not involve concertation or even communication among the group members.

Residence times and boundary-following behavior in animals.

Many animals in heterogeneous environments bias their trajectories displaying a preference for the vicinity of boundaries. Here we propose a criterion, relying on recent invariance properties of residence times for microreversible Boltzmann's walks, that permits detecting and quantifying boundary-following behaviors. On this basis we introduce a boundary-following model that is a nonmicroreversible Boltzmann's walk and that can represent all kinds of boundary-following distributions. This allows us to perform a theoretical analysis of field-resolved boundary following in animals. Two consequences are pointed out and are illustrated: A systematic procedure can now be used for extraction of individual properties from experimental field measurements, and boundary-curvature influence can be recovered as an emerging property without the need for individuals perceiving the curvature via complex physiological mechanisms. The presented results apply to any memoryless correlated random walk, such as the run-and-tumble models that are widely used in cell motility studies.