Risk factors for short-term all-cause mortality in patients with end stage renal disease: a scoping review.

OBJECTIVES: There is a lack of prognostic information to guide the prediction of short-term all-cause mortality in patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD). The aim was to review the risk factors that influenced the risk of short-term all-cause mortality in patients with ESRD. METHODS: MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, CINAHL, the Cochrane Library and Web of Science databases were searched for articles published between 2000 and 2020. Articles describing risk factors predicting short-term mortality (≤ 3 years) in patients with ESRD were included. Four reviewers independently performed title, abstract, full text screening and data extraction. Assessment of risk of bias was assessed using the Quality In Prognosis Studies (QUIPS) tool checklist. RESULTS: 20,840 articles were identified and 113 papers were included for this review. Of the 113 papers, 6.2% included only peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients, 67.3% included only hemodialysis (HD) patients, 20.4% included both PD and HD patients, with the remaining papers featuring patients on conservative management or awaiting renal transplant. Risk factors were categorised into 13 domains: 1)demographics/ lifestyle, 2) comorbidities 3)intradialytic blood pressure, 4)biomarkers, 5)cardiovascular measurements, 6)frailty status, 7)medications, 8)treatment related indicators, 9)renal related parameters, 10)health status, 11)cause of ESRD, 12)access to healthcare care/ information and, 13)proxy measures for poor health. C-reactive protein(CRP), age, and functional status were observed to have higher percentage of instances of being significantly associated with all-cause mortality. CONCLUSION: Commonly examined risk factors observed from this review may be used to build a general prognostic model for patients with ESRD, with specific treatment related risk factors added on to enhance the accuracy of the models.

Prognostic Factors of Mortality in Nonchronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Chronic Lung Disease: A Scoping Review.

Introduction: Patients with chronic lung disease (CLD) experience a heavy symptom burden at the end of life, but their uptake of palliative care is notably low. Having an understanding of a patient's prognosis would facilitate shared decision making on treatment options and care planning between patients, families, and their clinicians, and complement clinicians' assessments of patients' unmet palliative needs. While literature on prognostication in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has been established and summarized, information for other CLDs remains less consolidated. Summarizing the mortality risk factors for non-COPD CLDs would be a novel contribution to literature. Hence, we aimed to identify and summarize the prognostic factors associated with non-COPD CLDs from the literature. Methods: We conducted a scoping review following published guidelines. We searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, CINAHL, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science for studies published between 2000 and 2020 that described non-COPD CLD populations with an all-cause mortality risk period of up to three years. Only primary studies which reported associations with mortality adjusted through multivariable analysis were included. Results: Fifty-five studies were reviewed, with 53 based on interstitial lung disease (ILD) or connective tissue disease-associated ILD populations and two in bronchiectasis populations. Prognostic factors were classified into 10 domains, with pulmonary function and disease being the largest. Older age, lower forced vital capacity, and lower carbon monoxide diffusing capacity were most commonly investigated and associated with statistically significant increases in mortality risks. Conclusions: This comprehensive overview of prognostic factors for patients with non-COPD CLDs would facilitate the identification and prioritization of candidate factors to predict short-term mortality, supporting tool development for decision making and to identify high-risk patients for palliative needs assessments. Literature focused on patients with ILDs, and more studies should be conducted on other CLDs to bridge the knowledge gap.

A social ecological approach to identify the barriers and facilitators to COVID-19 vaccination acceptance: A scoping review.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 is an infectious disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus that has caused substantial impact on population health, healthcare, and social and economic systems around the world. Several vaccines have been developed to control the pandemic with varying effectiveness and safety profiles. One of the biggest obstacles to implementing successful vaccination programmes is vaccine hesitancy stemming from concerns about effectiveness and safety. This review aims to identify the factors influencing COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy and acceptance and to organize the factors using the social ecological framework. METHODS: We adopted the five-stage methodological framework developed by Arksey and O'Malley to guide this scoping review. Selection criteria was based on the PICo (Population, Phenomenon of interest and Context) framework. Factors associated with acceptance and hesitancy were grouped into the following: intrapersonal, interpersonal, institutional, community, and public policy factors using the social ecological framework. RESULTS: Fifty-one studies fulfilled this review's inclusion criteria. Most studies were conducted in Europe and North America, followed by Asia and the Middle East. COVID-19 vaccine acceptance and hesitancy rates varied across countries. Some common demographic factors associated with hesitancy were younger age, being female, having lower than college education, and having a lower income level. Most of the barriers and facilitators to acceptance of the COVID-19 vaccines were intrapersonal factors, such as personal characteristics and preferences, concerns with COVID-19 vaccines, history/perception of general vaccination, and knowledge of COVID-19 and health. The remaining interpersonal, institution, community, and public policy factors were grouped into factors identified as barriers and facilitators. CONCLUSION: Our review identified barriers and facilitators of vaccine acceptance and hesitancy and organised them using the social ecological framework. While some barriers and facilitators such as vaccine safety are universal, differentiated barriers might exist for different target groups, which need to be understood if they are to be addressed to maximize vaccine acceptance.

The World Health Organization (WHO) Integrated Care for Older People (ICOPE) Framework: A Narrative Review on Its Adoption Worldwide and Lessons Learnt.

The World Health Organization (WHO) recently published guidelines on the implementation of a new Integrated Care for Older People (ICOPE) framework in 2017-2019. It is an integrated care framework for the screening, assessment, and management of intrinsic capacity (IC) declines. We aimed to examine where the early adopters of ICOPE are across the world, how these study teams and sites plan to apply the framework or have applied it, and the lessons learnt for future adopters. We systematically searched electronic medical and social sciences databases and grey literature published between 31 October 2017 and 31 March 2022. Records were systematically selected using precise inclusion criteria. There were 18 ICOPE study teams and sites across the 29 selected records. Of the 18 study teams and sites, seven were in the development stage, seven conducted feasibility studies, and four have commenced implementation of interventions that applied the ICOPE framework. Future ICOPE adopters may need to make certain decisions. These include whether to adopt ICOPE in the community setting or other settings, whether to adopt only Step 1 on IC screening or additional ICOPE Steps, whether the ICOPE IC screening tool requires modifications, and whether to use digital health technology. We propose the key factors needed to make these decisions and future research needed.

Temporal changes of haematological and radiological findings of the COVID-19 infection-a review of literature.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 is a systemic viral infection which mainly targets the human respiratory system with many secondary clinical manifestations especially affecting the hematopoietic system and haemostasis. Few studies have highlighted the prognostic value of blood findings such as lymphopenia, neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio, platelet/lymphocyte ratio, LDH, CRP, cardiac troponin, low-density lipoproteins and chest radiographic abnormality. A study of progressions of blood and radiological results may help to identify patients at high risk of severe outcomes. This systematic review aimed to assess the temporal progression of blood and radiology findings of patients with COVID-19. METHODS: Comprehensive systematic literature search was conducted on Medline, Embase and Cochrane databases to identify articles published for peripheral blood investigation and radiological results of COVID-19 patients. RESULTS: A total of 27 studies were included in this review. The common laboratory features reported include lymphopenia, elevated levels of C-reactive proteins and lactate dehydrogenase. For radiological signs, ground-glass opacifications, consolidations, and crazy paving patterns were frequently reported. There is a correlation between lymphocyte count, neutrophil count and biomarkers such as C-reactive proteins and lactate dehydrogenase; at a later phase of the disease (more than 7 days since onset of symptoms), lymphopenia worsens while neutrophil count, C-reactive protein levels and lactate dehydrogenase levels increase. Frequencies of ground-glass opacifications and ground-glass opacifications with consolidations decrease at a later phase of the disease while that of consolidation and crazy paving pattern rises as the disease progresses. More extensive lung involvement was also seen more frequently in the later phases. CONCLUSION: The correlation between temporal progression and the reported blood and radiological results may be helpful to monitor and evaluate disease progression and severity.

Prognostication in Home-Dwelling Patients with Advanced Dementia: The Palliative Support DEMentia Model (PalS-DEM).

OBJECTIVE: Difficulties with prognostication prevent more patients with advanced dementia from receiving timely palliative support. The aim of this study is to develop and validate a prognostic model for 6-month and 1-year mortality in home-dwelling patients with advanced dementia. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: The data set of 555 home-dwelling patients with dementia at Functional Assessment Staging Test stage 7 was split into derivation (n = 275) and validation (n = 280) cohorts. METHODS: Cox proportional hazards regression modeled survival in the derivation cohort using prognostic variables identified in univariate analysis. The model was validated internally and using 10-fold cross-validation. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve measured the accuracy of the final model. RESULTS: Four hundred nineteen (75.5%) patients died with a median follow-up of 47 days [interquartile range (IQR) 161]. Prognostic variables in the multivariate model included serum albumin level, dementia etiology, number of homecare admission criteria fulfilled, presence of moderate to severe chronic kidney disease, peripheral vascular disease, quality of life in late-stage dementia scores, housing type, and the Australian National Sub-Acute and Non-Acute Patient palliative care phase. The model was refined into a parsimonious 6-variable model [Palliative Support DEMentia Model (PalS-DEM)] consisting of age, dementia etiology, Functional Assessment Staging Test stage, Charlson Comorbidity Index scores, Australian National Sub-Acute and Non-Acute Patient palliative care phase, and 30-day readmission frequency for the prediction of 1-year mortality. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.65 (95% confidence interval 0.59-0.70). Risk scores categorized patients into 3 prognostic groups, with a median survival of 175 days (IQR 365), 104 days (IQR 246), and 19 days (IQR 88) for the low-risk (0‒1 points), moderate-risk (2‒4), and high-risk (≥5) groups, respectively. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: The PalS-DEM identifies patients at high risk of death in the next 1 year. The model produced consistent survival results across the derivation, validation, and cross-validation cohorts and will help healthcare providers identify patients with advanced dementia earlier for palliative care.

Cost-utility analysis of hearing aid device for older adults in the community: a delayed start study.

BACKGROUND: Hearing aids (HA) is the primary medical intervention aimed to reduce hearing handicap. This study assessed the cost-effectiveness of HA for older adults who were volunteered to be screened for hearing loss in a community-based mobile hearing clinic (MHC). METHODS: Participants with (1) at least moderate hearing loss (≥40 dB HL) in at least one ear, (2) no prior usage of HA, (3) no ear related medical complications, and (4) had a Mini-Mental State Examination score ≥ 18 were eligible for this study. Using a delayed-start study design, participants were randomized into the immediate-start (Fitted) group where HA was fitted immediately or the delayed-start (Not Fitted) group where HA fitting was delayed for three months. Cost utility analysis was used to compare the cost-effectiveness of being fitted with HA combined with short-term, aural rehabilitation with the routine care group who were not fitted with HA. Incremental cost effectiveness ration (ICER) was computed. Health Utility Index (HUI-3) was used to measure utility gain, a component required to derive the quality adjusted life years (QALY). Total costs included direct healthcare costs, direct non-healthcare costs and indirect costs (productivity loss of participant and caregiver). Demographic data was collected during the index visit to MHC. Cost and utility data were collected three months after index visit and projected to five years. RESULTS: There were 264 participants in the Fitted group and 163 participants in the Not Fitted group. No between-group differences in age, gender, ethnicity, housing type and degree of hearing loss were observed at baseline. At 3 months, HA fitting led to a mean utility increase of 0.12 and an ICER gain of S$42,790/QALY (95% CI: S$32, 793/QALY to S$62,221/QALY). At five years, the ICER was estimated to be at S$11,964/QALY (95% CI: S$8996/QALY to S$17,080/QALY) assuming 70% of the participants continued using the HA. As fewer individuals continued using their fitted HA, the ICER increased. CONCLUSIONS: HA fitting can be cost-effective and could improve the quality of life of hearing-impaired older individuals within a brief period of device fitting. Long term cost-effectiveness of HA fitting is dependent on its continued usage.

Is there scope for expanding the optometrist's scope of practice in Singapore? - A survey of optometrists, opticians in Singapore.

PURPOSE: In Singapore, optometrists' roles are limited compared to their counterparts elsewhere. The purpose of the survey is to investigate optometrists' current roles, views on extended roles, self-reported primary eye care knowledge, needs for continuing professional education (CPE) and views on suitable modes for CPE. METHODS: Members of the Optometrist and Optician Board (OOB) were invited via email to take part in an anonymous online survey. The survey questions covered the following areas: current scope of practice, self-rated primary eye care knowledge, confidence in screening, co-managing minor eye conditions, CPE and referral behavior. RESULTS: A total of 230 optometrists completed the survey (response rate 30%). Their current roles were limited to diagnostic refraction (92%), colour vision assessment (65%), contact lens fitting and dispensing (62%) amongst others. The average self-rated score for primary eye care knowledge was 8.2 ± 1.4; score range 1-10 (1-Very poor, 10-Excellent). Self-rated confidence scores for screening for cataract, diabetic retinopathy, chronic glaucoma and age-related macular degeneration were 2.7 ± 1.5, 3.7 ± 1.9, 4.0 ± 1.9 and 3.8 ± 1.8, respectively. 71% of the optometrists felt that they should undertake regular CPE to improve their primary eye care knowledge. Blended learning (eLearning and traditional face-to-face lectures) (46.1%) was the most preferred mode for CPE delivery. CONCLUSION: Optometrists in Singapore represent a skilled underutilized primary eye care provider. Though their self-reported primary eye care knowledge is high, their confidence in screening and co-managing chronic eye conditions is low. Enabling them for extended primary eye care role would require further training. SIGNIFICANCE: Singapore ageing population has led to greater eye care demands. Task-shifting from ophthalmologists to optometrists has been proposed in the literature to handle this growing care demands. At this juncture, this study provides evidence based answers to issues revolving around optometrists' readiness for a role expansion in Singapore.

Online Digital Education for Postregistration Training of Medical Doctors: Systematic Review by the Digital Health Education Collaboration.

BACKGROUND: Globally, online and local area network-based (LAN) digital education (ODE) has grown in popularity. Blended learning is used by ODE along with traditional learning. Studies have shown the increasing potential of these technologies in training medical doctors; however, the evidence for its effectiveness and cost-effectiveness is unclear. OBJECTIVE: This systematic review evaluated the effectiveness of online and LAN-based ODE in improving practicing medical doctors' knowledge, skills, attitude, satisfaction (primary outcomes), practice or behavior change, patient outcomes, and cost-effectiveness (secondary outcomes). METHODS: We searched seven electronic databased for randomized controlled trials, cluster-randomized trials, and quasi-randomized trials from January 1990 to March 2017. Two review authors independently extracted data and assessed the risk of bias. We have presented the findings narratively. We mainly compared ODE with self-directed/face-to-face learning and blended learning with self-directed/face-to-face learning. RESULTS: A total of 93 studies (N=16,895) were included, of which 76 compared ODE (including blended) and self-directed/face-to-face learning. Overall, the effect of ODE (including blended) on postintervention knowledge, skills, attitude, satisfaction, practice or behavior change, and patient outcomes was inconsistent and ranged mostly from no difference between the groups to higher postintervention score in the intervention group (small to large effect size, very low to low quality evidence). Twenty-one studies reported higher knowledge scores (small to large effect size and very low quality) for the intervention, while 20 studies reported no difference in knowledge between the groups. Seven studies reported higher skill score in the intervention (large effect size and low quality), while 13 studies reported no difference in the skill scores between the groups. One study reported a higher attitude score for the intervention (very low quality), while four studies reported no difference in the attitude score between the groups. Four studies reported higher postintervention physician satisfaction with the intervention (large effect size and low quality), while six studies reported no difference in satisfaction between the groups. Eight studies reported higher postintervention practice or behavior change for the ODE group (small to moderate effect size and low quality), while five studies reported no difference in practice or behavior change between the groups. One study reported higher improvement in patient outcome, while three others reported no difference in patient outcome between the groups. None of the included studies reported any unintended/adverse effects or cost-effectiveness of the interventions. CONCLUSIONS: Empiric evidence showed that ODE and blended learning may be equivalent to self-directed/face-to-face learning for training practicing physicians. Few other studies demonstrated that ODE and blended learning may significantly improve learning outcomes compared to self-directed/face-to-face learning. The quality of the evidence in these studies was found to be very low for knowledge. Further high-quality randomized controlled trials are required to confirm these findings.

Virtual Reality for Health Professions Education: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis by the Digital Health Education Collaboration.

BACKGROUND: Virtual reality (VR) is a technology that allows the user to explore and manipulate computer-generated real or artificial three-dimensional multimedia sensory environments in real time to gain practical knowledge that can be used in clinical practice. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this systematic review was to evaluate the effectiveness of VR for educating health professionals and improving their knowledge, cognitive skills, attitudes, and satisfaction. METHODS: We performed a systematic review of the effectiveness of VR in pre- and postregistration health professions education following the gold standard Cochrane methodology. We searched 7 databases from the year 1990 to August 2017. No language restrictions were applied. We included randomized controlled trials and cluster-randomized trials. We independently selected studies, extracted data, and assessed risk of bias, and then, we compared the information in pairs. We contacted authors of the studies for additional information if necessary. All pooled analyses were based on random-effects models. We used the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations (GRADE) approach to rate the quality of the body of evidence. RESULTS: A total of 31 studies (2407 participants) were included. Meta-analysis of 8 studies found that VR slightly improves postintervention knowledge scores when compared with traditional learning (standardized mean difference [SMD]=0.44; 95% CI 0.18-0.69; I2=49%; 603 participants; moderate certainty evidence) or other types of digital education such as online or offline digital education (SMD=0.43; 95% CI 0.07-0.79; I2=78%; 608 participants [8 studies]; low certainty evidence). Another meta-analysis of 4 studies found that VR improves health professionals' cognitive skills when compared with traditional learning (SMD=1.12; 95% CI 0.81-1.43; I2=0%; 235 participants; large effect size; moderate certainty evidence). Two studies compared the effect of VR with other forms of digital education on skills, favoring the VR group (SMD=0.5; 95% CI 0.32-0.69; I2=0%; 467 participants; moderate effect size; low certainty evidence). The findings for attitudes and satisfaction were mixed and inconclusive. None of the studies reported any patient-related outcomes, behavior change, as well as unintended or adverse effects of VR. Overall, the certainty of evidence according to the GRADE criteria ranged from low to moderate. We downgraded our certainty of evidence primarily because of the risk of bias and/or inconsistency. CONCLUSIONS: We found evidence suggesting that VR improves postintervention knowledge and skills outcomes of health professionals when compared with traditional education or other types of digital education such as online or offline digital education. The findings on other outcomes are limited. Future research should evaluate the effectiveness of immersive and interactive forms of VR and evaluate other outcomes such as attitude, satisfaction, cost-effectiveness, and clinical practice or behavior change.

Effect of multimorbidity on survival of patients diagnosed with heart failure: a retrospective cohort study in Singapore.

OBJECTIVE: Multimorbidity in patients with heart failure (HF) results in poor prognosis and is an increasing public health concern. We aim to examine the effect of multimorbidity focusing on type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) on all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD)-specific mortality among patients diagnosed with HF in Singapore. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Primary and tertiary care in three (out of six) Regional Health Systems in Singapore. PARTICIPANTS: Patients diagnosed with HF between 2003 and 2016 from three restructured hospitals and nine primary care polyclinics were included in this retrospective cohort study. PRIMARY OUTCOMES: All-cause mortality and CVD-specific mortality. RESULTS: A total of 34 460 patients diagnosed with HF from 2003 to 2016 were included in this study and were followed up until 31 December 2016. The median follow-up time was 2.1 years. Comorbidities prior to HF diagnosis were considered. Patients were categorised as (1) HF only, (2) T2DM+HF, (3) CKD+HF and (4) T2DM+CKD+HF. Cox regression model was used to determine the effect of multimorbidity on (1) all-cause mortality and (2) CVD-specific mortality. Adjusting for demographics, other comorbidities, baseline treatment and duration of T2DM prior to HF diagnosis, 'T2DM+CKD+HF' patients had a 56% higher risk of all-cause mortality (HR: 1.56, 95% CI 1.48 to 1.63) and a 44% higher risk of CVD-specific mortality (HR: 1.44, 95% CI 1.32 to 1.56) compared with patients diagnosed with HF only. CONCLUSION: All-cause and CVD-specific mortality risks increased with increasing multimorbidity. This study highlights the need for a new model of care that focuses on holistic patient management rather than disease management alone to improve survival among patients with HF with multimorbidity.

Evaluation of an integrated primary care-led dementia shared care program in Singapore: An effectiveness and cost-effectiveness study.

AIM: With an aging Singapore population, there is an increasing demand for dementia care. The present study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the Primary Care Dementia Clinic (PCDC) in comparison with the Memory Clinic (MC; hospital-based) and other polyclinics. METHODS: A quasi-experimental design was implemented. Effectiveness of PCDC was assessed through caregiver satisfaction, quality of life (caregiver-rated) and adverse events rates. Quality-of-Life measures using the EuroQol 5 Dimension Questionnaire (EQ-5D) at baseline, 6 months and 12 months was assessed. Costs were calculated from a societal perspective. The incremental cost-effectiveness of the PCDC was compared with MC and other polyclinics. RESULTS: The present study showed that quality of life and the rate of adverse events at 12 months were similar between the three groups. Caregiver satisfaction at 12 months was higher in the PCDC group when compared with other polyclinics. There were no observed differences in societal cost between the three groups. At 6-month follow up, direct medical costs for PCDC were significantly lower that of other polyclinics. At 12-month follow up, PCDC patients had higher Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) compared with the MC group. CONCLUSION: PCDC provided effective care, similar to care at MC and better than care at other polyclinics. Caregiver satisfaction was higher for the PCDC group, and PCDC patients had lower direct medical costs at 6-month follow up. Given these findings, adopting a PCDC model in other polyclinics in Singapore can be beneficial for optimal right siting of patients. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2018; 18: 479-486.

Singapore's regional health systems-a data-driven perspective on frequent admitters and cross utilization of healthcare services in three systems.

INTRODUCTION: With population health management being a priority in the Singapore, this paper aims to provide a data-driven perspective of the population health management initiatives to aid program planning and serves as a baseline for evaluation of future implemented programs. METHODS: A database with information on patient demographics, health services utilization, cost, diagnoses and chronic disease information from 2008 to 2013 for three regional health systems in Singapore was used for analysis. Patients with three or more inpatient admissions were considered as "Frequent Admitters." Health service utilization was quantified, and cross utilization of services was studied. One-year readmission rate for inpatients was studied, and a predictive model for readmission or death was developed. RESULTS: There were a total of 2.8 M patients in the database. Frequent admitters accounted for 0.9% of all patients with an average cost per patient of S$29 547. Of these, 89% had chronic diseases. Cross utilization of health services showed that 8.2% of the patients utilized services from more than one hospital with 19.6% utilizing hospital and polyclinic services in 2013. The highest risk of readmission or death was for those patients who had five or more inpatient episodes in each of the preceding 2 years. CONCLUSION: By understanding the profile of the patients and their utilization patterns in the three regional health systems, our study will help clinicians and decision makers design appropriate integrated care programs for patients with the aim of covering the healthcare needs for the enitre population across the healthcare spectrum in Singapore. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Evaluation of a disease management program for COPD using propensity matched control group.

BACKGROUND: Disease management programs (DMPs) have proliferated recently as a means of improving the quality and efficiency of care for patients with chronic illness. These programs include education about disease, optimization of evidence-based medications, information and support from case managers, and institution of self-management principles. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in Singapore and worldwide. DMP aims to reduce mortality, hospitalizations, and average length of stay in such patients. This study assesses the outcomes of the DMP, comparing the propensity score matched DMP patients with controls. METHODS: DMP patients were compared with the controls, who were COPD patients fulfilling the DMP's inclusion criteria but not included in the program. Control patients were identified from Operations Data Store (ODS) database. The outcomes of interest were average length of stay, number of days admitted to hospital per 100 person days, readmission, and mortality rates per person year. The risk of death and readmission was estimated using Cox, and competing risk regression respectively. Propensity score was estimated to identify the predictors of DMP enrolment. DMP patients and controls were matched on their propensity score. RESULTS: There were 170 matched DMP patients and control patients having 287 and 207 hospitalizations respectively. Program patient had lower mortality than the controls (0.12 vs. 0.27 per person year); cumulative 1-year survival was 91% among program patient and 76% among the control patients. Readmission, and hospital days per 100 person-days was higher for the program patients (0.36 vs. 0.17 per person year), and (2.19 vs. 1.88 per person year) respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Participation in "DMP" was associated with lower all-cause mortality when compared to the controls. This survival gain in the program patients was paradoxically associated with an increase in readmission rate and total hospital days.

Burden of Wet Age-Related Macular Degeneration and Its Economic Implications in Singapore in the Year 2030.

PURPOSE: To estimate the prevalence of wet age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in Singapore in the year 2030. This projection will help in planning appropriate care provision and build health services capacity to cater to the increasing healthcare demand in 2030. METHODS: The number of AMD patients aged 40-79 years from all Singaporeans was estimated using prevalence rates from a local study and using the United Nations population projections for Singapore to 2030. Age-specific mortality was accounted for. Additionally, two main scenarios were presented: (1) Projected number of wet AMD cases if patients were not taking preventive antioxidant vitamins; (2) projected number of wet AMD cases if patients were taking preventive antioxidant vitamins. Based on these scenarios, the economic burden was calculated. The number of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained as a result of improvement in visual acuity (VA) due to anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) treatment was also calculated. RESULTS: An estimated growth of 42% in the number of wet AMD cases is expected by 2030. The estimated economic burden of wet AMD in 2030 for scenarios 1 and 2 is Singapore $203.1 million and $162.9 million, respectively. The QALYs gained as a result of improved VA from wet AMD treatment ranged from 10,114.4 to 14,058.8 over a 5-year period for the 2030 cohort. CONCLUSION: The burden of wet AMD is set to increase over the next 15 years. Appropriate measures to build healthcare capacity and plan for this expected surge in patients should be a priority in Singapore.

Cost-effectiveness of anti-oxidant vitamins plus zinc treatment to prevent the progression of intermediate age-related macular degeneration. A Singapore perspective.

PURPOSE: To determine if providing high dose anti-oxidant vitamins and zinc treatment age-related eye disease study (AREDS formulation) to patients with intermediate age-related macular degeneration (AMD) aged 40-79 years from Singapore is cost-effective in preventing progression to wet AMD. METHODS: A hypothetical cohort of category 3 and 4 AMD patients from Singapore was followed for 5 calendar years to determine the number of patients who would progress to wet AMD given the following treatment scenarios: (a) AREDS formulation or placebo followed by ranibizumab (as needed) for wet AMD. (b) AREDS formulation or placebo followed by bevacizumab (monthly) for wet AMD. (c) AREDS formulation or placebo followed by aflibercept (VIEW I and II trial treatment regimen). Costs were estimated for the above scenarios from the providers' perspective, and cost-effectiveness was measured by cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted with a disability weight of 0.22 for wet AMD. The costs were discounted at an annual rate of 3%. RESULTS: Over 5400 patients could be prevented from progressing to wet AMD cumulatively if AREDS formulation were prescribed. AREDS formulation followed by ranibizumab was cost-effective compared to placebo-ranibizumab or placebo-aflibercept combinations (cost per DALY averted: SGD$23,662.3 and SGD$21,138.8, respectively). However, bevacizumab (monthly injections) alone was more cost-effective compared to AREDS formulation followed by bevacizumab. CONCLUSION: Prophylactic treatment with AREDS formulation for intermediate AMD patients followed by ranibizumab or for patients who progressed to wet AMD was found to be cost-effective. These findings have implications for intermediate AMD screening, treatment and healthcare planning in Singapore.

The methodological quality of systematic reviews comparing intravitreal bevacizumab and alternates for neovascular age related macular degeneration: A systematic review of reviews.

OBJECTIVE: To systematically collate and evaluate the evidence from recent SRs of bevacizumab for neo-vascular age related macular degeneration. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Literature searches were carried out in Medline, Embase, Cochrane databases for all systematic reviews (SRs) on the effectiveness of bevacizumab for neo-vascular age related macular degeneration, published between 2000 and 2013. Titles and abstracts were assessed against the inclusion/exclusion criteria using Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) study eligibility form. Data was extracted using the JBI data extraction form. The quality of the SRs was assessed using JBI critical appraisal checklist for SRs. Decisions on study eligibility and quality were made by two reviewers; any disagreements were resolved by discussion. RESULTS: Nine relevant reviews were identified from 30 citations, of which 5 reviews fulfilled the review's inclusion criteria. All 5 reviews showed bevacizumab to be effective for neovascular AMD in the short-term when used alone or in combination with PDT or Pegaptanib. The average quality score of the reviews was 7; 95% confidence interval 6.2 to 7.8 (maximum possible quality score is 10). The selection and publication bias were not addressed in all included reviews. Three-fifth of the reviews had a quality score of 7 or lower, these reviews had some methodological limitations, search strategies were only identified in 2 (40%) reviews, independent study selection and quality assessment of included studies (4 (80%)) were infrequently performed. CONCLUSION: Overall, the reviews on the effectiveness of intravitreal/systemic bevacizumab for neovascular  age-related macular generation (AMD) received good JBI quality scores (mean score = 7.0 points), with a few exceptions. The study also highlights the suboptimal reporting of SRs on this topic. Reviews with poor methodology may limit the validity of the reported results; hence efforts should be made to improve the design, reporting and publication of SRs across all journals.

Offline eLearning for undergraduates in health professions: A systematic review of the impact on knowledge, skills, attitudes and satisfaction.

BACKGROUND: The world is short of 7.2 million health-care workers and this figure is growing. The shortage of teachers is even greater, which limits traditional education modes. eLearning may help overcome this training need. Offline eLearning is useful in remote and resource-limited settings with poor internet access. To inform investments in offline eLearning, we need to establish its effectiveness in terms of gaining knowledge and skills, students' satisfaction and attitudes towards eLearning. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review of offline eLearning for students enrolled in undergraduate, health-related university degrees. We included randomised controlled trials that compared offline eLearning to traditional learning or an alternative eLearning method. We searched the major bibliographic databases in August 2013 to identify articles that focused primarily on students' knowledge, skills, satisfaction and attitudes toward eLearning, and health economic information and adverse effects as secondary outcomes. We also searched reference lists of relevant studies. Two reviewers independently extracted data from the included studies. We synthesized the findings using a thematic summary approach. FINDINGS: Forty-nine studies, including 4955 students enrolled in undergraduate medical, dentistry, nursing, psychology, or physical therapy studies, met the inclusion criteria. Eleven of the 33 studies testing knowledge gains found significantly higher gains in the eLearning intervention groups compared to traditional learning, whereas 21 did not detect significant differences or found mixed results. One study did not test for differences. Eight studies detected significantly higher skill gains in the eLearning intervention groups, whilst the other 5 testing skill gains did not detect differences between groups. No study found offline eLearning as inferior. Generally no differences in attitudes or preference of eLearning over traditional learning were observed. No clear trends were found in the comparison of different modes of eLearning. Most of the studies were small and subject to several biases. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that offline eLearning is equivalent and possibly superior to traditional learning regarding knowledge, skills, attitudes and satisfaction. Although a robust conclusion cannot be drawn due to variable quality of the evidence, these results justify further investment into offline eLearning to address the global health care workforce shortage.

Online eLearning for undergraduates in health professions: A systematic review of the impact on knowledge, skills, attitudes and satisfaction.

BACKGROUND: Health systems worldwide are facing shortages in health professional workforce. Several studies have demonstrated the direct correlation between the availability of health workers, coverage of health services, and population health outcomes. To address this shortage, online eLearning is increasingly being adopted in health professionals' education. To inform policy-making, in online eLearning, we need to determine its effectiveness. METHODS: We performed a systematic review of the effectiveness of online eLearning through a comprehensive search of the major databases for randomised controlled trials that compared online eLearning to traditional learning or alternative learning methods. The search period was from January 2000 to August 2013. We included articles which primarily focused on students' knowledge, skills, satisfaction and attitudes toward eLearning and cost-effectiveness and adverse effects as secondary outcomes. Two reviewers independently extracted data from the included studies. Due to significant heterogeneity among the included studies, we presented our results as a narrative synthesis. FINDINGS: Fifty-nine studies, including 6750 students enrolled in medicine, dentistry, nursing, physical therapy and pharmacy studies, met the inclusion criteria. Twelve of the 50 studies testing knowledge gains found significantly higher gains in the online eLearning intervention groups compared to traditional learning, whereas 27 did not detect significant differences or found mixed results. Eleven studies did not test for differences. Six studies detected significantly higher skill gains in the online eLearning intervention groups, whilst 3 other studies testing skill gains did not detect differences between groups and 1 study showed mixed results. Twelve studies tested students' attitudes, of which 8 studies showed no differences in attitudes or preferences for online eLearning. Students' satisfaction was measured in 29 studies, 4 studies showed higher satisfaction for online eLearning and 20 studies showed no difference in satisfaction between online eLearning and traditional learning. Risk of bias was high for several of the included studies. CONCLUSION: The current evidence base suggests that online eLearning is equivalent, possibly superior to traditional learning. These findings present a potential incentive for policy makers to cautiously encourage its adoption, while respecting the heterogeneity among the studies.

Self-reported chronic diseases and health status and health service utilization--results from a community health survey in Singapore.

OBJECTIVE: To report the extent of self-reported chronic diseases, self-rated health status (SRH) and healthcare utilization among residents in 1-2 room Housing Development Board (HDB) apartments in Toa Payoh. MATERIALS & METHODS: The study population included a convenience sample of residents from 931 housing development board (HDB) units residing in 1-2 room apartments in Toa Payoh. Convenience sampling was used since logistics precluded random selection. Trained research assistants carried out the survey. Results were presented as descriptive summary. RESULTS: Respondents were significantly older, 48.3% reported having one or more chronic diseases, 32% have hypertension, 16.8% have diabetes, and 7.6% have asthma. Median SRH score was seven. Hospital inpatient utilization rate were highest among Indian ethnic group, unemployed, no income, high self-rated health (SRH) score, and respondents with COPD, renal failure and heart disease. Outpatient utilization rate was significantly higher among older respondents, females, and those with high SRH scores (7-10). CONCLUSIONS: The findings confirming that residents living in 1-2 room HDB apartments are significantly older, with higher rates of chronic diseases, health care utilization than national average, will aid in healthcare planning to address their needs.