Estimation of separable direct and indirect effects in a continuous-time illness-death model.

In this article we study the effect of a baseline exposure on a terminal time-to-event outcome either directly or mediated by the illness state of a continuous-time illness-death process with baseline covariates. We propose a definition of the corresponding direct and indirect effects using the concept of separable (interventionist) effects (Robins and Richardson in Causality and psychopathology: finding the determinants of disorders and their cures, Oxford University Press, 2011; Robins et al. in arXiv:2008.06019 , 2021; Stensrud et al. in J Am Stat Assoc 117:175-183, 2022). Our proposal generalizes Martinussen and Stensrud (Biometrics 79:127-139, 2023) who consider similar causal estimands for disentangling the causal treatment effects on the event of interest and competing events in the standard continuous-time competing risk model. Unlike natural direct and indirect effects (Robins and Greenland in Epidemiology 3:143-155, 1992; Pearl in Proceedings of the seventeenth conference on uncertainty in artificial intelligence, Morgan Kaufmann, 2001) which are usually defined through manipulations of the mediator independently of the exposure (so-called cross-world interventions), separable direct and indirect effects are defined through interventions on different components of the exposure that exert their effects through distinct causal mechanisms. This approach allows us to define meaningful mediation targets even though the mediating event is truncated by the terminal event. We present the conditions for identifiability, which include some arguably restrictive structural assumptions on the treatment mechanism, and discuss when such assumptions are valid. The identifying functionals are used to construct plug-in estimators for the separable direct and indirect effects. We also present multiply robust and asymptotically efficient estimators based on the efficient influence functions. We verify the theoretical properties of the estimators in a simulation study, and we demonstrate the use of the estimators using data from a Danish registry study.

Risk of ankylosis of avulsed teeth immediately replanted or stored under favorable storage conditions before replantation: A long-term clinical study.

BACKGROUND/AIM: There are few long-term clinical follow-up studies on human teeth replanted immediately or after storage in a suitable storage medium prior to replantation. This study aimed to assess the risk of ankylosis in avulsed human teeth replanted immediately or after storage in physiological media for a short time. MATERIAL: Data from 116 patients with 145 replanted avulsed permanent teeth were selected from a comprehensive dental trauma database in Copenhagen University Hospital. The following teeth were selected: Group 1 comprised 36 teeth replanted immediately (dry time <6 min; wet time <6 min). Group 2 comprised 61 teeth replanted after physiologic storage media (saliva and saline) (dry time <6 min; wet time >5 min; wet time ranged from 7 to 170 min, and mean wet time was 59 min). Group 3 (control) included 48 teeth replanted after dry storage (dry time > 60 min). METHOD: Clinical and radiographic registrations were carried out according to a standardized protocol; follow-up ranged from 7 months to 23 years. Ankylosis was diagnosed by percussion test and radiographs and related to the conditions prior to replantation and stage of root development. RESULTS: The overall risk of ankylosis was 17.2% [95% CI: 4.61; 29.79] for immediately replanted teeth, 55.3% [95% CI: 42.54; 68.00] for teeth stored in physiologic media before replantation, and 85.7% [95% CI: 75.70; 95.73] for teeth stored dry more than 1 h. Mature teeth showed a significantly higher risk of ankylosis than immature teeth. CONCLUSION: This clinical long-term study has verified earlier experimental studies showing that immediate reimplantation has the lowest risk of ankylosis. Physiologic storage media are good alternatives that also reduce the risk of ankylosis compared to dry storage, where ankylosis is more likely although not always seen. Mature teeth are significantly more likely to develop ankylosis.

High opsonic phagocytosis activity and growth inhibition of merozoites are associated with RON4 antibody levels and protect against febrile malaria in Ghanaian children.

Background: Naturally acquired immunity to malaria may involve different immune mechanisms working in concert, however, their respective contributions and potential antigenic targets have not been clearly established. Here, we assessed the roles of opsonic phagocytosis and antibody-mediated merozoite growth inhibition in Plasmodium falciparum (P. falciparum) infection outcomes in Ghanaian children. Methods: The levels of merozoite opsonic phagocytosis, growth inhibition activities and six P. falciparum antigen-specific IgG of plasma samples from children (n=238, aged 0.5 to 13 years) were measured at baseline prior to the malaria seasons in southern Ghana. The children were then actively and passively followed up for febrile malaria and asymptomatic P. falciparum infection detection in a 50-week longitudinal cohort. P. falciparum infection outcome was modelled as a function of the measured immune parameters while accounting for important demographic factors. Results: High plasma activity of opsonic phagocytosis [adjusted odds ratio (aOR)= 0.16; 95%CI= 0.05 - 0.50, p = 0.002], and growth inhibition (aOR=0.15; 95% CI = 0.04-0.47; p = 0.001) were individually associated with protection against febrile malaria. There was no evidence of correlation (b= 0.13; 95% CI= -0.04-0.30; p=0.14) between the two assays. IgG antibodies against MSPDBL1 correlated with opsonic phagocytosis (OP) while IgG against PfRh2a correlated with growth inhibition. Notably, IgG antibodies against RON4 correlated with both assays. Conclusion: Opsonic phagocytosis and growth inhibition are protective immune mechanisms against malaria that may be acting independently to confer overall protection. Vaccines incorporating RON4 may benefit from both immune mechanisms.

Association between primary care electrocardiogram markers and Alzheimer's disease.

OBJECTIVE: The association between common electrocardiogram (ECG) markers and Alzheimer's disease has been scarcely investigated, and it is unknown if ECG markers can improve risk prediction. Thus, we aimed to examine the association between common ECG markers and Alzheimer's disease in a large population. METHODS: We studied the association between ECG markers and Alzheimer's disease using Cox models with adjustment for age, sex, and comorbidities using a large primary care population of patients aged 60 years or more. RESULTS: We followed 172,236 subjects for a median of 7.5 years. Increased PR interval (hazard ratio for PR > 188 ms: 0.76 [95% confidence interval: 0.69-0.83, p < 0.001) and increased QTc interval (hazard ratio for QTc = [426;439]: 0.90 [0.83-0.98], p = 0.02) were associated with a decreased rate of Alzheimer's disease. A positive Sokolow-Lyon index >35 mm (1.22 [1.13-1.33], p < 0.001) and increased T-wave amplitude >4.1 mm (1.15 [1.04-1.27]) were associated with an increased rate of Alzheimer's disease. Upon addition of ECG markers to a reference model, 10-year prediction area under the receiver-operator characteristics curve (AUC) improved by 0.39 [0.06-0.67] %-points. The 10-year absolute risk of Alzheimer's disease was 6.5% and 5.2% for an 82-year old female and a male, respectively, with a favorable ECG, and 12% and 9.2%, respectively, with an unfavorable ECG, almost twice as high. CONCLUSIONS: We identified several common ECG markers which were associated with Alzheimer's disease, and which improved risk prediction for Alzheimer's disease.

Ranking of average treatment effects with generalized random forests for time-to-event outcomes.

Linkage between drug claims data and clinical outcome allows a data-driven experimental approach to drug repurposing. We develop an estimation procedure based on generalized random forests for estimation of time-point specific average treatment effects in a time-to-event setting with competing risks. To handle right-censoring, we propose a two-step procedure for estimation, applying inverse probability weighting to construct time-point specific weighted outcomes as input for the generalized random forest. The generalized random forests adaptively handle covariate effects on the treatment assignment by applying a splitting rule that targets a causal parameter. Using simulated data we demonstrate that the method is effective for a causal search through a list of treatments to be ranked according to the magnitude of their effect on clinical outcome. We illustrate the method using the Danish national health registries where it is of interest to discover drugs with an unexpected protective effect against relapse of severe depression.

Lifetime risk of comorbidity in patients with simple congenital heart disease: a Danish nationwide study.

AIMS: In a continuously ageing population of patients with congenital heart disease (CHD), understanding the long-term risk of morbidity is crucial. The aim of this study was to compare the lifetime risks of developing comorbidities in patients with simple CHD and matched controls. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using the Danish nationwide registers spanning from 1977 to 2018, simple CHD cases were defined as isolated atrial septal defect (ASD), ventricular septal defect (VSD), pulmonary stenosis, or patent ductus arteriosus in patients surviving until at least 5 years of age. There were 10 controls identified per case. Reported were absolute lifetime risks and lifetime risk differences (between patients with simple CHD and controls) of incident comorbidities stratified by groups and specific cardiovascular comorbidities. Of the included 17 157 individuals with simple CHD, the largest subgroups were ASD (37.7%) and VSD (33.9%), and 52% were females. The median follow-up time for patients with CHD was 21.2 years (interquartile range: 9.4-39.0) and for controls, 19.8 years (9.0-37.0). The lifetime risks for the investigated comorbidities were higher and appeared overall at younger ages for simple CHD compared with controls, except for neoplasms and chronic kidney disease. The lifetime risk difference among the comorbidity groups was highest for neurological disease (male: 15.2%, female: 11.3%), pulmonary disease (male: 9.1%, female: 11.7%), and among the specific comorbidities for stroke (male: 18.9%, female: 11.4%). The overall risk of stroke in patients with simple CHD was mainly driven by ASD (male: 28.9%, female: 17.5%), while the risks of myocardial infarction and heart failure were driven by VSD. The associated lifetime risks of stroke, myocardial infarction, and heart failure in both sexes were smaller in invasively treated patients compared with untreated patients with simple CHD. CONCLUSION: Patients with simple CHD had increased lifetime risks of all comorbidities compared with matched controls, except for neoplasms and chronic kidney disease. These findings highlight the need for increased attention towards early management of comorbidity risk factors.

Smartphone-activated volunteer responders and bystander defibrillation for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in private homes and public locations.

AIMS: To investigate the association between the arrival of smartphone-activated volunteer responders before the Emergency Medical Services (EMS) and bystander defibrillation in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) at home and public locations. METHODS AND RESULTS: This is a retrospective study (1 September 2017-14 May 2019) from the Stockholm Region of Sweden and the Capital Region of Denmark. We included 1271 OHCAs, of which 1029 (81.0%) occurred in private homes and 242 (19.0%) in public locations. The main outcome was bystander defibrillation. At least one volunteer responder arrived before EMS in 381 (37.0%) of OHCAs at home and 84 (34.7%) in public. More patients received bystander defibrillation when a volunteer responder arrived before EMS at home (15.5 vs. 2.2%, P < 0.001) and in public locations (32.1 vs. 19.6%, P = 0.030). Similar results were found among the 361 patients with an initial shockable heart rhythm (52.7 vs. 11.5%, P < 0.001 at home and 60.0 vs. 37.8%, P = 0.025 in public). The standardized probability of receiving bystander defibrillation increased with longer EMS response times in private homes. The 30-day survival was not significantly higher when volunteer responders arrived before EMS (9.2 vs. 7.7% in private homes, P = 0.41; and 40.5 vs. 35.4% in public locations, P = 0.44). CONCLUSION: Bystander defibrillation was significantly more common in private homes and public locations when a volunteer responder arrived before the EMS. The standardized probability of bystander defibrillation increased with longer EMS response times in private homes. Our findings support the activation of volunteer responders and suggest that volunteer responders could increase bystander defibrillation, particularly in private homes.

Gene expression analysis during progression of malignant meningioma compared to benign meningioma.

OBJECTIVE: Meningioma is the most common primary intracranial neoplasm. Only 1%-3% of meningiomas are malignant according to the 2016 WHO criteria (WHO grade III). High-grade meningiomas present specific gene expression signatures indicating aggressive growth or recurrence. However, changes in gene expression and in neuroinflammatory gene expression signatures in WHO grade III meningiomas and during progression from WHO grade I or II to grade III are unknown. METHODS: The authors used a NanoString targeted gene expression panel with focus on 787 genes relevant in meningioma pathology and neuroinflammatory pathways to investigate patients with grade III meningiomas treated at Rigshospitalet from 2000 to 2020 (n = 51). A temporal dimension was added to the investigation by including samples from patients' earlier grade I and II meningiomas and grade III recurrences (n = 139 meningiomas). The authors investigated changes in neuroinflammatory gene expression signatures in 1) grade I meningiomas that later transformed into grade III meningiomas, and 2) grade III meningiomas compared with nonrecurrent grade I meningiomas. RESULTS: The authors' data indicate that FOXM1, TOP2A, BIRC5, and MYBL2 were enriched and the HOTAIR regulatory pathway was enriched in grade III meningiomas compared with nonrecurrent grade I meningiomas. They discovered a separation of malignant and benign meningiomas based only on genes involved in microglia regulation with enrichment of P2RY12 in grade I compared with grade III meningiomas. Interestingly, FOXM1 was upregulated in premalignant grade I meningioma years before the grade III transformation. CONCLUSIONS: The authors found gene expression changes in low-grade meningiomas that predated histological transformation to grade III meningiomas. Neuroinflammation genes distinguished grade III from grade I meningiomas.

Do changes in frailty, physical functioning, and cognitive functioning predict mortality in old age? Results from the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam.

BACKGROUND: The ability to accurately predict survival in older adults is crucial as it guides clinical decision making. The added value of using various health indicators as well as changes in these indicators for predicting mortality remains unclear. The aim of this study was to investigate whether changes in health indicators such as frailty and physical performance improve mortality predictions in old age. METHODS: This is a population based prospective cohort study on 995 community-dwelling people aged 68-92 years from the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam. Two measurements at a three-year interval (1995/1996 and 1998/1999) were available for the frailty index, frailty phenotype, grip strength, walking speed, and Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE). Cox regression was used to analyze mortality risks associated with the current health status and changes in health, with mortality data up to 2017. The extent to which these health indicators improved mortality predictions compared to models with age and sex only was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). RESULTS: The AUC of age and sex for five-year mortality was 72.8% (95% CI 69.0 - 76.5) and was the lowest in the oldest old (age > 80.5 years). The added AUC of the current status of health indicators ranged from 0.7 to 3.3%. The added AUC of the three-year change was lower, ranging from -0.0 to 1.1%, whereas the added AUC of three-year change and current status combined was similar to current status alone, ranging from 0.6 to 3.2%. Across age, the added AUC of current status was highest in the oldest old, however there was no such pattern using three-year change. Overall, the frailty index appeared to improve mortality predictions the most, followed by the frailty phenotype, MMSE, grip strength, and walking speed. CONCLUSIONS: Current health status improved mortality predictions better than changes in health. Its contribution was highest in the oldest old, but the added value to models with age and sex only was limited.

Risk of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in antidepressant drug users.

Conflicting results have been reported regarding the association between antidepressant use and out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) risk. We investigated whether the use of antidepressants is associated with OHCA. METHODS: We conducted a nationwide nested case-control study to assess the association of individual antidepressant drugs within drug classes with the hazard of OHCA. Cases were defined as OHCA from presumed cardiac causes. Cox regression with time-dependent exposure and time-dependent covariates was conducted to calculate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) overall and in subgroups defined by established cardiac disease and cardiovascular risk factors. Also, we studied antidepressants with and without sodium channel blocking or potassium channel blocking properties separately. RESULTS: During the study period from 2001 to 2015 we observed 10 987 OHCA cases, and found increased OHCA rate for high-dose citalopram (>20 mg) and high-dose escitalopram (>10 mg; HR:1.46 [95% CI:1.27-1.69], HR:1.43 [95% CI:1.16-1.75], respectively) among selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (reference drug sertraline), and for high-dose mirtazapine (>30; HR:1.59 [95% CI:1.18-2.14]) among the serotonin-norepinephrine reuptake inhibitors or noradrenergic and specific serotonergic antidepressants (reference drug duloxetine). Among tricyclic antidepressants (reference drug amitriptyline), no drug was associated with significantly increased OHCA rate. Increased OHCA rate was found for antidepressants with known potassium channel blocking properties (HR:1.14 [95% CI:1.05-1.23]), but for not those with sodium channel blocking properties. Citalopram, although not statistically significant, and mirtazapine were associated with increased OHCA rate in patients without cardiac disease and cardiovascular risk factors. CONCLUSION: Our findings indicate that careful titration of citalopram, escitalopram and mirtazapine dose may have to be considered due to drug safety issues.

Temporal changes in risk of cardiovascular events in people with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes with and without cardiovascular disease.

AIMS: Examine temporal changes in the risk of cardiovascular events in people with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes with and without cardiovascular disease (CVD). METHODS: 283,600 individuals with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes and age-, sex-, and CVD-matched controls without diabetes were identified through Danish nationwide registries between 1997 and 2014. Using Cox regression models, we report the standardized absolute 5-year risk of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure for people with diabetes and controls. RESULTS: Individuals with newly diagnosed diabetes were at increased risk of cardiovascular events compared to controls. From 1997-2002 to 2009-2014 reductions in cardiovascular events for people with diabetes were: cardiovascular death; 26.5% to 13.8% in people with CVD and from 7.3% to 3.2% in people without CVD, myocardial infarction; 13.1% to 6.5% in people with CVD and from 4.1% to 1.9% in people without CVD, stroke; 14.2% to 8.8% in people with CVD and from 4.9% to 2.2% in people without CVD, and heart failure; 21.0% to 13.8% in people with CVD and from 5.0% to 2.6% in people without CVD. The risk of cardiovascular events declined more among people with diabetes than controls. CONCLUSIONS: Newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes was associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events, and the risk decreased significantly 1997-2014 in both people with and without CVD. Furthermore, the excess risk associated with type 2 diabetes decreased significantly during the study period.

Ticagrelor and the risk of Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia and other infections.

AIMS: To investigate the 1-year risks of Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia (SAB), sepsis, and pneumonia in patients who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention and were treated with ticagrelor vs. clopidogrel. METHODS AND RESULTS: In this nationwide observational cohort study, 26 606 patients who underwent urgent or emergent percutaneous coronary intervention (January 2011-December 2017) and initiated treatment with ticagrelor [N = 20 073 (75.5%); median age 64 years (25th-75th percentile 55-72 years); 74.8% men] or clopidogrel [N = 6533 (24.5%); median age 68 years (25th-75th percentile 58-77 years); 70.2% men] were identified using Danish nationwide registries. The 1-year standardized absolute risks of outcomes was calculated based on cause-specific Cox regression models, and average treatment effects between treatment groups were obtained as standardized differences in absolute 1-year risks. The absolute 1-year risk of SAB was 0.10% [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.05-0.15%] in the ticagrelor group and 0.29% (95% CI, 0.17-0.42%) in the clopidogrel group. Compared with clopidogrel, treatment with ticagrelor was associated with a significantly lower absolute 1-year risk of SAB [absolute risk difference -0.19% (95% CI, -0.32% to -0.05%), P value 0.006]. Likewise, treatment with ticagrelor was associated with a significantly lower absolute 1-year risk of sepsis [0.99% (95% CI, 0.83-1.14%) vs. 1.49% (95% CI, 1.17-1.80%); absolute risk difference -0.50% (95% CI, -0.86% to -0.14%), P value 0.007] and pneumonia [3.13% (95% CI, 2.86-3.39%) vs. 4.56% (95% CI, 4.03-5.08%); absolute risk difference -1.43% (95% CI, -2.03% to -0.82%), P value < 0.001] compared with clopidogrel. CONCLUSION: Treatment with ticagrelor was associated with a significantly lower 1-year risk of SAB, sepsis, and pneumonia compared with clopidogrel.

The association between cardiovascular disease admission rates and the coronavirus disease 2019 lockdown and reopening of a nation: a Danish nationwide cohort study.

AIMS: To investigate the admission rates of cardiovascular diseases, overall and according to subgroups, and subsequent mortality rates during the coronavirus disease 2019 societal lockdown (12 March 2020) and reopening phase (15 April 2020) in Denmark. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using Danish nationwide registries, we identified patients with a first-time acute cardiovascular admission in two periods: (i) 2 January-16 October 2019 and (ii) 2 January-15 October 2020. Weekly incidence rates of a first-time cardiovascular admission, overall and according to subtypes, in the two periods were calculated. The incidence rate of first-time cardiovascular admissions overall was significantly lower during the first weeks of lockdown in 2020 compared with a similar period in 2019 but increased after the gradual reopening of the Danish society. A similar trend was observed for all subgroups of cardiovascular diseases. The mortality rate among patients admitted after March 12 was not significantly different in 2020 compared with 2019 [mortality rate ratio 0.98; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.91-1.06)]. CONCLUSION: In Denmark, we observed a substantial decrease in the rate of acute cardiovascular admissions, overall and according to subtypes, during the first weeks of lockdown. However, after the gradual reopening of the Danish society, the admission rates for acute cardiovascular diseases increased and returned to rates similar to those observed in 2019. The mortality rate in patients admitted with cardiovascular diseases during lockdown was similar to that of patients during the same period in 2019.

Cardiovascular outcomes with GLP-1 receptor agonists vs. SGLT-2 inhibitors in patients with type 2 diabetes.

AIMS: We examined cardiovascular outcomes associated with initiation of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist (GLP-1RA) vs. sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitor (SGLT-2i) treatment in a real-world setting among patients with type 2 diabetes. METHODS AND RESULTS: This Danish nationwide registry-based cohort study included patients with type 2 diabetes with a first-ever prescription of either GLP-1RA or SGLT-2i from 2013 through 2015 with follow-up until end of 2018. All analyses were standardized with respect to age, sex, diabetes duration, comorbidity, and comedication. The main outcome was a composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, and stroke. Furthermore, the components of the composite outcome and hospitalization for heart failure were evaluated. Standardized average 3-year risks of outcomes and differences thereof were estimated using doubly robust estimation combining cause-specific Cox regression with propensity score regression. We identified 8913 new users of GLP-1RA and 5275 new users of SGLT-2i. The standardized 3-year risk associated with initiating GLP-1RA and SGLT-2i, respectively, was as follows: composite cardiovascular outcome, 5.6% [95% confidence interval (CI): 5.2-6.1] vs. 5.6% (95% CI: 4.8-6.3); cardiovascular mortality, 1.6% (95% CI: 1.3-1.9) vs. 1.5% (95% CI: 1.1-1.8); hospitalization for heart failure, 1.7% (95% CI: 1.5-2.0) vs. 1.8% (95% CI: 1.2-2.5); myocardial infarction, 2.1% (95% CI: 1.8-2.4) vs. 2.1% (95% CI: 1.5-2.6); and stroke, 2.5% (95% CI: 2.2-2.9) vs. 2.6% (95% CI: 2.2-3.1). CONCLUSION: In this nationwide study of patients with type 2 diabetes, initiating GLP-1RA vs. SGLT-2i was not found to be associated with significant differences in cardiovascular risk.

Glycated haemoglobin levels among 3295 hospitalized COVID-19 patients, with and without diabetes, and risk of severe infection, admission to an intensive care unit and all-cause mortality.

AIM: To determine the risk of adverse outcomes across the spectrum of glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) levels among hospitalized COVID-19 patients with and without diabetes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Danish nationwide registries were used to study the association between HbA1c levels and 30-day risk of all-cause mortality and the composite of severe COVID-19 infection, intensive care unit (ICU) admission and all-cause mortality. The study population comprised patients hospitalized with COVID-19 (3 March 2020 to 31 December 2020) with a positive polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test and an available HbA1c ≤ 6 months before the first positive PCR test. All patients had at least 30 days of follow-up. Among patients with diabetes, HbA1c was categorized as <48 mmol/mol, 48 to 53 mmol/mol, 54 to 58 mmol/mol, 59 to 64 mmol/mol (reference) and >64 mmol/mol. Among patients without diabetes, HbA1c was stratified into <31 mmol/mol, 31 to 36 mmol/mol (reference), 37 to 41 mmol/mol and 42 to 47 mmol/mol. Thirty-day standardized absolute risks and standardized absolute risk differences are reported. RESULTS: We identified 3295 hospitalized COVID-19 patients with an available HbA1c (56.2% male, median age 73.9 years), of whom 35.8% had diabetes. The median HbA1c was 54 and 37 mmol/mol among patients with and without diabetes, respectively. Among patients with diabetes, the standardized absolute risk difference of the composite outcome was higher with HbA1c < 48 mmol/mol (12.0% [95% confidence interval {CI} 3.3% to 20.8%]) and HbA1c > 64 mmol/mol (15.1% [95% CI 6.2% to 24.0%]), compared with HbA1c 59 to 64 mmol/mol (reference). Among patients without diabetes, the standardized absolute risk difference of the composite outcome was greater with HbA1c < 31 mmol/mol (8.5% [95% CI 0.5% to 16.5%]) and HbA1c 42 to 47 mmol/mol (6.7% [95% CI 1.3% to 12.1%]), compared with HbA1c 31 to 36 mmol/mol (reference). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with COVID-19 and HbA1c < 48 mmol/mol or HbA1c > 64 mmol/mol had a higher associated risk of the composite outcome. Similarly, among patients without diabetes, varying HbA1c levels were associated with higher risk of the composite outcome.

Time Trends in Simple Congenital Heart Disease Over 39 Years: A Danish Nationwide Study.

Background We describe calendar time trends of patients with simple congenital heart disease. Methods and Results Using the nationwide Danish registries, we identified individuals diagnosed with isolated ventricular septal defect, atrial septal defect, patent ductus arteriosus, or pulmonary stenosis during 1977 to 2015, who were alive at 5 years of age. We reported incidence per 1 000 000 person-years with 95% CIs, 1-year invasive cardiac procedure probability and age at time of diagnosis stratified by diagnosis age (children ≤18 years, adults >18 years), and 1-year all-cause mortality stratified by diagnosis age groups (5-30, 30-60, 60+ years). We identified 15 900 individuals with simple congenital heart disease (ventricular septal defect, 35.2%; atrial septal defect, 35.0%; patent ductus arteriosus, 25.2%; pulmonary stenosis, 4.6%), of which 75.7% were children. From 1977 to 1986 and 2007 to 2015, the incidence rates increased for atrial septal defect in adults (8.8 [95% CI, 7.1-10.5] to 31.8 [95% CI, 29.2-34.5]) and in children (26.6 [95% CI, 20.9-32.3] to 150.8 [95% CI, 126.5-175.0]). An increase was only observed in children for ventricular septal defect (72.1 [95% CI, 60.3-83.9] to 115.4 [95% CI, 109.1-121.6]), patent ductus arteriosus (49.2 [95% CI, 39.8-58.5] to 102.2 [95% CI, 86.7-117.6]) and pulmonary stenosis (5.7 [95% CI, 3.0-8.3] to 21.5 [95% CI, 17.2-25.7]) while the incidence rates remained unchanged for adults. From 1977-1986 to 2007-2015, 1-year mortality decreased for all age groups (>60 years, 30.1%-9.6%; 30-60 years, 9.5%-1.0%; 5-30 years, 1.9%-0.0%), and 1-year procedure probability decreased for children (13.8%-6.6%) but increased for adults (13.3%-29.6%) were observed. Conclusions Increasing incidence and treatment and decreasing mortality among individuals with simple congenital heart disease point toward an aging and growing population. Broader screening methods for asymptomatic congenital heart disease are needed to initiate timely treatment and follow-up.

Metrics of pN-staging in oral squamous cell carcinoma: An analysis of 1,905 patients.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to compare the predictive performance of pN-categories in oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) encompassing the most recent 8th edition (TNM8), its predecessor (TNM7), and a newly proposed algorithm (pN-N+), which classifies patients according to the number of positive lymph nodes and extranodal extension. METHODS: Consecutive, primary OSCC patients from seven previously published cohorts were included and classified according to the three pN-classifications: TNM7, TNM8 and pN-N+. Overall survival probabilities were summarised with the Kaplan-Meier method. We added each of the three metrics to a Cox regression adjusted for pT-category, lymph nodal yield, age, sex, radiotherapy and chemotherapy, and trained these models in one institution. We evaluated the predictive performance in the remaining six institutions and assessed the predicted 5-year risk of death using the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) and Brier scores. RESULTS: All 1,905 included patients were classified according to TNM7 and pN-N+. A subset of 1,575 patients was additionally classified according to TNM8, leading to upstaging in 27.0%. The pN-N+ ranked overall best determined by the obtained AUC and Brier scores. In contrast to pN-N+, TNM7 and TNM8 both suffered from disproportionate patient distribution across pN-categories and poor pN-categorial discrimination on overall survival. CONCLUSIONS: The TNM8 pN-classification designates a larger subset to more advanced disease stages but failed to show improvement of its predictive performance compared to TNM7. The pN-categories of TNM7/8 are disproportionate and inconsistently discriminated. The pN-N+ conveyed the best measures of prognosis and should be considered in future TNM iterations.

The risks of ankylosis of 89 avulsed human teeth stored in saliva prior to replantation-A re-evaluation of a long-term clinical study.

BACKGROUND/AIM: The survival of an avulsed tooth highly depends on the emergency management. The aim of this study was to evaluate the risk of ankylosis for avulsed human teeth stored in saliva preceded by various dry storage conditions prior to replantation. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Data include 74 patients (54 male and 20 female) with 89 avulsed and replanted teeth (16 immature teeth, 73 mature teeth). Patient ages ranged from 6 to 36 years (median: 13.0 years). All teeth were stored in saliva before replantation. Treatment and follow-up were performed according to a standardized procedure. Follow-up periods ranged from 7 months to 20 years (mean 5.3 years). The risk of ankylosis over time was estimated by the Aalen-Johansen method in relation to the length of dry storage and the stage of root development. The effect of risk factors (root development and length of dry time) on the risk of ankylosis was analysed by Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: For mature teeth, dry storage for 5 min or less before saliva storage resulted in a 47.4% (95% confidence interval (CI): 32.8-60.7) ankylosis rate. When dry storage was >5 min and <20 min, the risk of ankylosis was 76.8% (95% CI: 45.7-91.5). When dry storage exceeded 20 min prior to saliva storage, ankylosis increased to 89.3% (95% CI: 68.0-96.7). Ankylosis also increased with increasing saliva storage time. Specifically, one additional minute of wet time increased the ankylosis hazard rate (HR) by approximately 1% (CI = [0%, 2%], p = .052). Teeth with mature root development were significantly more frequently affected by ankylosis than teeth with immature root development (HR: 2.4 (95% CI: 1.0-5.5), p = .04). CONCLUSION: Temporary storage in saliva should be encouraged if an avulsed permanent tooth cannot be immediately replanted or a suitable storage medium such as milk or saline is not immediately available at the place of the accident.

Artificial intelligence grading of breast cancer: a promising method to refine prognostic classification for management precision.

AIM: Artificial intelligence (AI)-based breast cancer grading may help to overcome perceived limitations of human assessment. Here, the potential value of AI grade was evaluated at the molecular level and in predicting patient outcome. METHODS AND RESULTS: A supervised convolutional neural network (CNN) model was trained on images of 612 breast cancers from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). The test set, obtained from the Cooperative Human Tissue Network (CHTN), comprised 1058 cancers with corresponding survival data. Upon reversal, a CNN was trained from images of 1537 CHTN cancers and tested on 397 TCGA cancers. In TCGA, mRNA models were trained using AI grade and Nottingham grade (NG) as labels. Performance of mRNA models in predicting patient outcome was evaluated using data from 1807 cancers from the Molecular Taxonomy of Breast Cancer International Consortium (METABRIC) cohort. In selecting images for training, nucleolar prominence determined high- versus low-grade cancer cells. In CHTN, NG corresponded to significant survival stratification in stages 1, 2 and 3 cancers, while AI grade showed significance in stages 1 and 2 and borderline in stage 3 tumours. In METABRIC, the mRNA model trained from AI grade was not significantly different to the NG-based model. The gene which best described AI grade was TRIP13, a gene involved with mitotic spindle assembly. CONCLUSION: An AI grade trained from the morphologically distinctive feature of nucleolar prominence could transmit significant patient outcome information across three independent patient cohorts. AI grade shows promise in gene discovery and for second opinions.

The mediating role of effective treatments in the relationship between income level and survival in patients with heart failure: a sex- and cohabitation-stratified study.

AIMS: Patients with heart failure and low income have a high mortality risk. We examined whether lower survival among low-income patients with heart failure could be explained by different use of ß -blockers, renin-angiotensin system inhibitors (RASi), and implanted devices compared with high-income patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: We linked Danish national registries to identify patients with new-onset heart failure between 2005 and 2016. A total of 18 308 patients was included in the main analysis. We collected information on medical treatment and device therapy after discharge. We investigated the remaining income disparity if everybody had the same probability of treatment as the high-income patients. We used causal mediation analysis to examine to what extent treatment differences mediate the association between income and 1-year mortality in strata defined by sex and cohabitation status. If low-income patients had the same probability of initiating ß-blockers and RASi treatment as high-income patients, low-income men who lived alone would increase initiation of treatment by 12.4% (CI: 10.0% to 14.9%) and as a result reduce their absolute 1-year mortality by 1.0% (CI: -1.4% to -0.5%). If low-income patients had the same probability of not having breaks in medical treatment and getting device therapy, as high-income patients, low-income patients would increase the probability of not having breaks in treatment between 1.8% and 5.8% and increase the probability of getting device therapy between 1.0% and 3.8%, across strata of sex and cohabitation status. CONCLUSION: Lower rates of treatment initiation appear to mediate the poorer survival seen among patients with heart failure and low income, but only in males living alone.