Barriers and Facilitators to HIV Service Access among Hispanic/Latino Gay, Bisexual, and Other Men Who Have Sex with Men in Metropolitan Atlanta-a Qualitative Analysis.

Hispanic/Latino persons are disproportionately impacted by HIV in the US, and HIV diagnoses among Hispanic/Latino men in Georgia have increased over the past decade, particularly in metropolitan Atlanta. In 2022, the Georgia Department of Public Health detected five clusters of rapid HIV transmission centered among Hispanic/Latino gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (HLMSM) in metropolitan Atlanta. We conducted in-depth interviews with 65 service providers and 29 HLMSM to identify barriers and facilitators to HIV service access for HLMSM. Interviews were audio recorded, transcribed, and translated, if needed. Initial data analyses were conducted rapidly in the field to inform public health actions. We then conducted additional analyses including line-by-line coding of the interview transcripts using a thematic analytic approach. We identified four main themes. First, inequity in language access was a predominant barrier. Second, multiple social and structural barriers existed. Third, HLMSM encountered intersectional stigma. Finally, the HLMSM community is characterized by its diversity, and there is not a one-size-fits-all approach to providing appropriate care to this population. The collection of qualitative data during an HIV cluster investigation allowed us to quickly identity barriers experienced by HLMSM when accessing HIV and other medical care, to optimize public health response and action. Well-designed program evaluation and implementation research may help elucidate specific strategies and tools to reduce health disparities, ensure equitable service access for HLMSM, and reduce HIV transmission in this population.

Association between vector-borne pathogen seroprevalence in shelter-housed and owned dog populations in the contiguous United States of America.

Domestic dogs are susceptible to numerous vector-borne pathogens that are of significant importance for their health. In addition to being of veterinary importance, many of these pathogens are zoonotic and thus may pose a risk to human health. In the USA, owned dogs are commonly screened for exposure to or infection with several canine vector-borne pathogens. Although the screening data are widely available to show areas where infections are being diagnosed, testing of owned dogs is expected to underestimate the actual prevalence in dogs that have no access to veterinary care. The goal of this study was to measure the association between the widely available data from a perceived low-risk population with temporally and spatially collected data from shelter-housed dog populations. These data were then used to extrapolate the prevalence in dogs that generally lack veterinary care. The focus pathogens included Dirofilaria immitis, Ehrlichia spp., Anaplasma spp., and Borrelia burgdorferi. There was a linear association between the prevalence of selected vector-borne pathogens in shelter-housed and owned dog populations and, generally, the data suggested that prevalence of heartworm (D. immitis) infection and seroprevalence of Ehrlichia spp. and B. burgdorferi are higher in shelter-housed dogs, regardless of their location, compared with the owned population. The seroprevalence of Anaplasma spp. was predicted to be higher in areas that have very low to low seroprevalence, but unexpectedly, in areas of higher seroprevalence within the owned population, the seroprevalence was expected to be lower in the shelter-housed dog population. If shelters and veterinarians make decisions to not screen dogs based on the known seroprevalence of the owned group, they are likely underestimating the risk of exposure. This is especially true for heartworm. With this new estimate of the seroprevalence in shelter-housed dogs throughout the USA, shelters and veterinarians can make evidence-based informed decisions on whether testing and screening for these pathogens is appropriate for their local dog population. This work represents an important step in understanding the relationships in the seroprevalences of vector-borne pathogens between shelter-housed and owned dogs, and provides valuable data on the risk of vector-borne diseases in dogs.

Spatial and risk factor analyses of vector-borne pathogens among shelter dogs in the Eastern United States.

BACKGROUND: Vector-borne infections pose significant health risks to humans, domestic animals, and wildlife. Domestic dogs (Canis lupus familiaris) in the United States may be infected with and serve as sentinel hosts for several zoonotic vector-borne pathogens. In this study, we analyzed the geographical distribution, risk factors, and co-infections associated with infection with Ehrlichia spp., Anaplasma spp., Borrelia burgdorferi, and Dirofilaria immitis in shelter dogs in the Eastern United States. METHODS: From 2016 to 2020, blood samples from 3750 shelter dogs from 19 states were examined with IDEXX SNAP® 4Dx® Plus tests to determine the seroprevalence of infection with tick-borne pathogens and infection with D. immitis. We assessed the impact of factors including age, sex, intact status, breed group, and location on infection using logistic regression. RESULTS: The overall seroprevalence of D. immitis was 11.2% (n = 419/3750), the seroprevalence of Anaplasma spp. was 2.4% (n = 90/3750), the seroprevalence of Ehrlichia spp. was 8.0% (n = 299/3750), and the seroprevalence of B. burgdorferi was 8.9% (n = 332/3750). Regional variation in seroprevalence was noted: D. immitis (17.4%, n = 355/2036) and Ehrlichia spp. (10.7%, n = 217/2036) were highest in the Southeast while seroprevalence for B. burgdorferi (19.3%, n = 143/740) and Anaplasma spp. (5.7%, n = 42/740) were highest in the Northeast. Overall, 4.8% (n = 179/3750) of dogs had co-infections, the most common of which were D. immitis/Ehrlichia spp. (1.6%, n = 59/3750), B. burgdorferi/Anaplasma spp. (1.5%, n = 55/3750), and B. burgdorferi/Ehrlichia spp. (1.2%, n = 46/3750). Risk factors significantly influenced infection across the evaluated pathogens were location and breed group. All evaluated risk factors were significant for the seroprevalence of D. immitis antigens. CONCLUSIONS: Our results demonstrate a regionally variable risk of infection with vector-borne pathogens in shelter dogs throughout the Eastern United States, likely due to varying distributions of vectors. However, as many vectors are undergoing range expansions or other changes in distribution associated with climate and landscape change, continued vector-borne pathogen surveillance is important for maintaining reliable risk assessment.

Characterization of Immunological Responses to Borrelia Immunogenic Protein A (BipA), a Species-Specific Antigen for North American Tick-Borne Relapsing Fever.

Tick-borne relapsing fever (TBRF) is a neglected vector-borne bacterial disease distributed worldwide. Borrelia turicatae, Borrelia parkeri, and Borrelia hermsii are three argasid-borne TBRF species previously implicated in human disease in North America. TBRF is likely underdiagnosed due to its nonspecific symptoms and poorly developed diagnostic tests. Studies suggest that the Borrelia immunogenic protein A (BipA) is specific to TBRF Borrelia but heterogenic between species. In this study, we hypothesized that antibody responses generated to BipA are specific to the North American TBRF species infecting a given animal. To test this, we characterized the expression and localization of native BipA in North American species of TBRF Borrelia. We also infected mice by needle inoculation or tick bite with B. turicatae, B. hermsii, or B. parkeri and evaluated serum sample reactivity to recombinant BipA (rBipA) that was produced from each species. Furthermore, serum samples from nonhuman primates and domestic dogs experimentally infected with B. turicatae were assessed. Lastly, we tested human Lyme disease (LD) serum samples to determine potential cross-reactivity to rBipA generated from B. turicatae, B. parkeri, and B. hermsii. Our findings indicate that rBipA has the potential to distinguish between infections of LD- and TBRF-causing spirochetes and that antibody responses were more robust toward the Borrelia species causing infection. This work further supports that rBipA can likely distinguish between B. turicatae, B. hermsii, and B. parkeri infections in mice, canines, and nonhuman primates. IMPORTANCEBorrelia species transmitted by soft or hard ticks cause tick-borne relapsing fever (TBRF). This is a debilitating disease distributed worldwide but is likely underdiagnosed or misdiagnosed as Lyme disease due to poorly developed diagnostic tests. Borrelia turicatae, Borrelia parkeri, and Borrelia hermsii are three TBRF species previously implicated in human disease in North America. Commonly used diagnostic methods do not identify the species causing infection. In this study, we evaluated the potential of recombinant Borrelia immunogenic protein A (rBipA) as a diagnostic antigen capable of distinguishing between infections of TBRF Borrelia species. We show that serum from mice, canines, and nonhuman primates infected with B. turicatae, B. parkeri, or B. hermsii react more strongly to the rBipA from the species causing infection. Furthermore, sera from Lyme disease patients failed to cross-react with our rBipA proteins, indicating the potential to use rBipA as a species-specific diagnostic antigen for TBRF.

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Transmission in a Georgia School District-United States, December 2020-January 2021.

BACKGROUND: To inform prevention strategies, we assessed the extent of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission and settings in which transmission occurred in a Georgia public school district. METHODS: During 1 December 2020-22 January 2021, SARS-CoV-2-infected index cases and their close contacts in schools were identified by school and public health officials. For in-school contacts, we assessed symptoms and offered SARS-CoV-2 reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing; performed epidemiologic investigations and whole-genome sequencing to identify in-school transmission; and calculated secondary attack rate (SAR) by school setting (eg, sports, elementary school classroom), index case role (ie, staff, student), and index case symptomatic status. RESULTS: We identified 86 index cases and 1119 contacts, 688 (61.5%) of whom received testing. Fifty-nine of 679 (8.7%) contacts tested positive; 15 of 86 (17.4%) index cases resulted in ≥2 positive contacts. Among 55 persons testing positive with available symptom data, 31 (56.4%) were asymptomatic. Highest SARs were in indoor, high-contact sports settings (23.8% [95% confidence interval {CI}, 12.7%-33.3%]), staff meetings/lunches (18.2% [95% CI, 4.5%-31.8%]), and elementary school classrooms (9.5% [95% CI, 6.5%-12.5%]). The SAR was higher for staff (13.1% [95% CI, 9.0%-17.2%]) vs student index cases (5.8% [95% CI, 3.6%-8.0%]) and for symptomatic (10.9% [95% CI, 8.1%-13.9%]) vs asymptomatic index cases (3.0% [95% CI, 1.0%-5.5%]). CONCLUSIONS: Indoor sports may pose a risk to the safe operation of in-person learning. Preventing infection in staff members, through measures that include coronavirus disease 2019 vaccination, is critical to reducing in-school transmission. Because many positive contacts were asymptomatic, contact tracing should be paired with testing, regardless of symptoms.

Clusters of SARS-CoV-2 Infection Among Elementary School Educators and Students in One School District - Georgia, December 2020-January 2021.

In-person learning benefits children and communities (1). Understanding the context in which transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), occurs in schools is critical to improving the safety of in-person learning. During December 1, 2020-January 22, 2021, Cobb and Douglas Public Health (CDPH), the Georgia Department of Public Health (GDPH), and CDC investigated SARS-CoV-2 transmission in eight public elementary schools in a single school district. COVID-19 cases* among educators and students were either self-reported or identified by local public health officials. Close contacts (contacts)† of persons with a COVID-19 case received testing. Among contacts who received positive test results, public health investigators assessed epidemiologic links, probable transmission directionality, and the likelihood of in-school transmission.§ Nine clusters of three or more epidemiologically linked COVID-19 cases were identified involving 13 educators and 32 students at six of the eight elementary schools. Two clusters involved probable educator-to-educator transmission that was followed by educator-to-student transmission and resulted in approximately one half (15 of 31) of school-associated cases. Sixty-nine household members of persons with school-associated cases were tested, and 18 (26%) received positive results. All nine transmission clusters involved less than ideal physical distancing, and five involved inadequate mask use by students. Educators were central to in-school transmission networks. Multifaceted mitigation measures in schools, including promotion of COVID-19 precautions outside of school, minimizing in-person adult interactions at school, and ensuring universal and correct mask use and physical distancing among educators and students when in-person interaction is unavoidable, are important in preventing in-school transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Although not required for reopening schools, COVID-19 vaccination should be considered as an additional mitigation measure to be added when available.

Comparison of Effects of Trichuris muris and Spontaneous Colitis on the Proximal Colon Microbiota in C3H/HeJ and C3Bir IL10-/- Mice.

The nematode Trichuris muris has been shown to interact with specific enteric bacteria, but its effects on the composition of its host's microbial community are not fully understood. We hypothesized that Trichuris muris-infected mice would have altered colon microbiota as compared with uninfected mice. Colon histopathology and microbial community structure and composition were examined in mouse models of colitis (C3BirTLR4-/- IL10-/- and C3H/HeJ TLR4-/- IL10+/+ mice) with and without T. muris infection, in uninfected C3BirIL10-/- mice with and without spontaneous colitis, and in normal C3H/ HeJ mice. T. muris-infected mice developed colon lesions that were more severe than those seen in IL10-deficient mice. Ap- proximately 80% of infected IL10-/- mice had colon neutrophilic exudates, and some had extraintestinal worms and bacteria. The composition and structure of proximal colon microbiota were assessed by using terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis targeting the bacterial 16S rRNA gene. Colon microbiota in C3BirIL10-/- and C3H/HeJ mice differed both qualitatively and quantitatively. Trichuris infection significantly altered the relative abundance of individual operational taxonomic units [OTU] but not the composition (presence or absence of OTU) of colon microbiota in the 2 mouse genotypes. When C3BirIL10-/- and C3H/HeJ mouse OTU were considered separately, Trichuris was found to affect the microbiota of C3BirIL10-/- mice but not of C3H/HeJ mice. Even though 34 of the 75 (45%) C3BirIL10-/- mice had spontaneous colitis, neither qualitative nor quantitative differences were detected in microbiota between colitic or noncolitic C3BirIL10-/- mice or noncolitic C3H/HeJ mice. Therefore, Trichuris-infected mice developed distinct microbial communities that were influenced by host background genes; these alterations cannot be attributed solely to colonic inflammation.

Regional and Local Temporal Trends of Borrelia burgdorferi and Anaplasma spp. Seroprevalence in Domestic Dogs: Contiguous United States 2013-2019.

In 2019, in the United States, over 220,000 and 350,000 dogs tested positive for exposure to Anaplasma spp. and Borrelia burgdorferi, respectively. To evaluate regional and local temporal trends of pathogen exposure we used a Bayesian spatio-temporal binomial regression model, analyzing serologic test results for these pathogens from January 2013 to December 2019. Regional trends were not static over time, but rather increased within and beyond the borders of historically endemic regions. Increased seroprevalence was observed as far as North Carolina and North Dakota for both pathogens. Local trends were estimated to evaluate the heterogeneity of underlying changes. A large cluster of counties with increased B. burgdorferi seroprevalence centered around West Virginia, while a similar cluster of counties with increased Anaplasma spp. seroprevalence centered around Pennsylvania and extended well into Maine. In the Midwest, only a small number of counties experienced an increase in seroprevalence; instead, most counties had a decrease in seroprevalence for both pathogens. These trends will help guide veterinarians and pet owners in adopting the appropriate preventative care practices for their area. Additionally, B. burgdorferi and A. phagocytophilum cause disease in humans. Dogs are valuable sentinels for some vector-borne pathogens, and these trends may help public health providers better understand the risk of exposure for humans.

Local and regional temporal trends (2013-2019) of canine Ehrlichia spp. seroprevalence in the USA.

BACKGROUND: In the USA, there are several Ehrlichia spp. of concern including Ehrlichia canis, Ehrlichia ewingii, Ehrlichia chaffeensis, Ehrlichia muris eauclarensis, and "Panola Mountain Ehrlichia". Of these, E. canis is considered the most clinically relevant for domestic dogs, with infection capable of causing acute, subclinical, and chronic stages of disease. Changes in climate, land use, habitats, and wildlife reservoir populations, and increasing contact between both human and dog populations with natural areas have resulted in the increased risk of vector-borne disease throughout the world. METHODS: A Bayesian spatio-temporal binomial regression model was applied to serological test results collected from veterinarians throughout the contiguous USA between January 2013 and November 2019. The model was used to quantify both regional and local temporal trends of canine Ehrlichia spp. seroprevalence and identify areas that experienced significant increases in seroprevalence. RESULTS: Regionally, increasing seroprevalence occurred within several states throughout the central and southeastern states, including Missouri, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia and Texas. The underlying local trends revealed increasing seroprevalence at a finer scale. Clusters of locally increasing seroprevalence were seen from the western Appalachian region into the southern Midwest, along the Atlantic coast in New England, parts of Florida, Illinois, Wisconsin and Minnesota, and in a couple areas of the Mountain region. Clusters of locally decreasing seroprevalence were seen throughout the USA including New York and the mid-Atlantic states, Texas, the Midwest, and California. CONCLUSIONS: Canine Ehrlichia spp. seroprevalence is increasing in both endemic and non-endemic areas of the USA. The findings from this study indicate that dogs across a wide area of the USA are at risk of exposure and these results should provide veterinarians and pet owners with the information they need to make informed decisions about prevention of tick exposure.

Regional and local temporal trends in the prevalence of canine heartworm infection in the contiguous United States: 2012-2018.

BACKGROUND: Canine heartworm disease is a potentially fatal disease for which treatment is financially burdensome for many pet owners. Prevention is strongly advocated by the veterinary community along with routine testing for infection during annual wellness examinations. Despite the availability of efficacious chemoprophylaxis, recent reports have suggested that the incidence of heartworm disease in domestic dogs is increasing. RESULTS: Using data from tests for heartworm infection in the USA from January 2012 through September 2018, a Bayesian spatio-temporal binomial regression model was used to estimate the regional and local temporal trends of heartworm infection prevalence. The area with the largest increase in regional prevalence was found in the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Regional prevalence increased throughout the southeastern states and northward into Illinois and Indiana. Local (county-level) prevalence varied across the USA, with increasing prevalence occurring along most of the Atlantic coast, central United States, and western states. Clusters of decreasing prevalence were present along the Mississippi Alluvial Plain (a historically endemic area), Oklahoma and Kansas, and Florida. CONCLUSIONS: Canine heartworm infection prevalence is increasing in much of the USA, both regionally and locally, despite veterinarian recommendations on prevention and testing. Additional steps should be taken to protect dogs, cats and ferrets. Further work is needed to identify the driving factors of the locally decreasing prevalence present along the Mississippi Alluvial plain, Florida, and other areas.

The emergence and expansion of sarcoptic mange in American black bears (Ursus americanus) in the United States.

Mange was historically rare in American black bears (Ursus americanus). Since the 1990s, however, sarcoptic mange has become more widespread in black bears with hundreds of reports in 2018 from eight states. This emerging disease has potential implications regarding human and animal health and on future black bear management.

Antibodies to Borrelia turicatae in Experimentally Infected Dogs Cross-React with Borrelia burgdorferi Serologic Assays.

Tick-borne relapsing fever (TBRF) is caused by several Borrelia spp. (including Borrelia turicatae), which are primarily transmitted by Ornithodoros ticks. Relapsing fever group species are found worldwide, except for Antarctica. Approximately 500 human cases were reported between 1990 and 2011 in the United States (likely an underestimate), while cases in domestic and wild dogs were reported from Florida, Texas, and Washington. TBRF spirochetes are related to Borrelia burgdorferi, the agent of Lyme borreliosis. Dogs are routinely screened for B. burgdorferi, but it is unknown if infection with TBRF agents produces antibodies cross-reactive with B. burgdorferi assays. These data are critical for accurate surveillance of TBRF and Lyme borreliosis in dogs. In this study, B. burgdorferi-negative dogs were inoculated with B. turicatae, and seroconversion was confirmed by the rBipA (recombinant Borrelia immunogenic protein A) Western blot. Seropositive samples were tested with commercial and veterinary diagnostic laboratory B. burgdorferi-based tests. Borrelia turicatae-seroreactive samples cross-reacted with a whole-cell indirect fluorescent antibody (IFA) test and two multiantigen tests, but not with single-antigen tests using C6. Cross-reactivity with TBRF can confound epidemiology and surveillance efforts and confuse recommendations made by veterinarians for prevention and control. These findings demonstrate the need to critically evaluate results from B. burgdorferi diagnostic tests in the context of the assay type and the animal's geographical location and history of travel, as well as highlighting the need for commercially available specific diagnostic tests for TBRF spirochetes.

Quantifying the relationship between human Lyme disease and Borrelia burgdorferi exposure in domestic dogs.

Lyme disease (LD) is the most common vector-borne disease in the United States. Early confirmatory diagnosis remains a challenge, while the disease can be debilitating if left untreated. Further, the decision to test is complicated by under-reporting, low positive predictive values of testing in non-endemic areas and travel, which together exacerbate the difficulty in identification of newly endemic areas or areas of emerging concern. Spatio-temporal analyses at the national scale are critical to establishing a baseline human LD risk assessment tool that would allow for the detection of changes in these areas. A well-established surrogate for human LD incidence is canine LD seroprevalence, making it a strong candidate covariate for use in such analyses. In this paper, Bayesian statistical methods were used to fit a spatio-temporal spline regression model to estimate the relationship between human LD incidence and canine seroprevalence, treating the latter as an explanatory covariate. A strong non-linear monotonically increasing association was found. That is, this analysis suggests that mean incidence in humans increases with canine seroprevalence until the seroprevalence in dogs reaches approximately 30%. This finding reinforces the use of canines as sentinels for human LD risk, especially with respect to identifying geographic areas of concern for potential human exposure.

Canine vector-borne disease: mapping and the accuracy of forecasting using big data from the veterinary community.

Diagnosis, treatment, and prevention of vector-borne disease (VBD) in pets is one cornerstone of companion animal practices. Veterinarians are facing new challenges associated with the emergence, reemergence, and rising incidence of VBD, including heartworm disease, Lyme disease, anaplasmosis, and ehrlichiosis. Increases in the observed prevalence of these diseases have been attributed to a multitude of factors, including diagnostic tests with improved sensitivity, expanded annual testing practices, climatologic and ecological changes enhancing vector survival and expansion, emergence or recognition of novel pathogens, and increased movement of pets as travel companions. Veterinarians have the additional responsibility of providing information about zoonotic pathogen transmission from pets, especially to vulnerable human populations: the immunocompromised, children, and the elderly. Hindering efforts to protect pets and people is the dynamic and ever-changing nature of VBD prevalence and distribution. To address this deficit in understanding, the Companion Animal Parasite Council (CAPC) began efforts to annually forecast VBD prevalence in 2011. These forecasts provide veterinarians and pet owners with expected disease prevalence in advance of potential changes. This review summarizes the fidelity of VBD forecasts and illustrates the practical use of CAPC pathogen prevalence maps and forecast data in the practice of veterinary medicine and client education.

A Bayesian spatio-temporal model for forecasting Anaplasma species seroprevalence in domestic dogs within the contiguous United States.

This paper forecasts the 2016 canine Anaplasma spp. seroprevalence in the United States from eight climate, geographic and societal factors. The forecast's construction and an assessment of its performance are described. The forecast is based on a spatial-temporal conditional autoregressive model fitted to over 11 million Anaplasma spp. seroprevalence test results for dogs conducted in the 48 contiguous United States during 2011-2015. The forecast uses county-level data on eight predictive factors, including annual temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, county elevation, forestation coverage, surface water coverage, population density and median household income. Non-static factors are extrapolated into the forthcoming year with various statistical methods. The fitted model and factor extrapolations are used to estimate next year's regional prevalence. The correlation between the observed and model-estimated county-by-county Anaplasma spp. seroprevalence for the five-year period 2011-2015 is 0.902, demonstrating reasonable model accuracy. The weighted correlation (accounting for different sample sizes) between 2015 observed and forecasted county-by-county Anaplasma spp. seroprevalence is 0.987, exhibiting that the proposed approach can be used to accurately forecast Anaplasma spp. seroprevalence. The forecast presented herein can a priori alert veterinarians to areas expected to see Anaplasma spp. seroprevalence beyond the accepted endemic range. The proposed methods may prove useful for forecasting other diseases.

A Bayesian spatio-temporal model for forecasting the prevalence of antibodies to Borrelia burgdorferi, causative agent of Lyme disease, in domestic dogs within the contiguous United States.

This paper models the prevalence of antibodies to Borrelia burgdorferi in domestic dogs in the United States using climate, geographic, and societal factors. We then use this model to forecast the prevalence of antibodies to B. burgdorferi in dogs for 2016. The data available for this study consists of 11,937,925 B. burgdorferi serologic test results collected at the county level within the 48 contiguous United States from 2011-2015. Using the serologic data, a baseline B. burgdorferi antibody prevalence map was constructed through the use of spatial smoothing techniques after temporal aggregation; i.e., head-banging and Kriging. In addition, several covariates purported to be associated with B. burgdorferi prevalence were collected on the same spatio-temporal granularity, and include forestation, elevation, water coverage, temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, population density, and median household income. A Bayesian spatio-temporal conditional autoregressive (CAR) model was used to analyze these data, for the purposes of identifying significant risk factors and for constructing disease forecasts. The fidelity of the forecasting technique was assessed using historical data, and a Lyme disease forecast for dogs in 2016 was constructed. The correlation between the county level model and baseline B. burgdorferi antibody prevalence estimates from 2011 to 2015 is 0.894, illustrating that the Bayesian spatio-temporal CAR model provides a good fit to these data. The fidelity of the forecasting technique was assessed in the usual fashion; i.e., the 2011-2014 data was used to forecast the 2015 county level prevalence, with comparisons between observed and predicted being made. The weighted (to acknowledge sample size) correlation between 2015 county level observed prevalence and 2015 forecasted prevalence is 0.978. A forecast for the prevalence of B. burgdorferi antibodies in domestic dogs in 2016 is also provided. The forecast presented from this model can be used to alert veterinarians in areas likely to see above average B. burgdorferi antibody prevalence in dogs in the upcoming year. In addition, because dogs and humans can be exposed to ticks in similar habitats, these data may ultimately prove useful in predicting areas where human Lyme disease risk may emerge.

Multiple factors interact to produce responses resembling spectrum of human disease in Campylobacter jejuni infected C57BL/6 IL-10-/- mice.

BACKGROUND: Campylobacter jejuni infection produces a spectrum of clinical presentations in humans--including asymptomatic carriage, watery diarrhea, and bloody diarrhea--and has been epidemiologically associated with subsequent autoimmune neuropathies. This microorganism is genetically variable and possesses genetic mechanisms that may contribute to variability in nature. However, relationships between genetic variation in the pathogen and variation in disease manifestation in the host are not understood. We took a comparative experimental approach to explore differences among different C. jejuni strains and studied the effect of diet on disease manifestation in an interleukin-10 deficient mouse model. RESULTS: In the comparative study, C57BL/6 interleukin-10-/- mice were infected with seven genetically distinct C. jejuni strains. Four strains colonized the mice and caused disease; one colonized with no disease; two did not colonize. A DNA:DNA microarray comparison of the strain that colonized mice without disease to C. jejuni 11168 that caused disease revealed that putative virulence determinants, including loci encoding surface structures known to be involved in C. jejuni pathogenesis, differed from or were absent in the strain that did not cause disease. In the experimental study, the five colonizing strains were passaged four times in mice. For three strains, serial passage produced increased incidence and degree of pathology and decreased time to develop pathology; disease shifted from watery to bloody diarrhea. Mice kept on an ~6% fat diet or switched from an approximately 12% fat diet to an approximately 6% fat diet just before infection with a non-adapted strain also exhibited increased incidence and severity of disease and decreased time to develop disease, although the effects of diet were only statistically significant in one experiment. CONCLUSION: C. jejuni strain genetic background and adaptation of the strain to the host by serial passage contribute to differences in disease manifestations of C. jejuni infection in C57BL/6 IL-10-/- mice; differences in environmental factors such as diet may also affect disease manifestation. These results in mice reflect the spectrum of clinical presentations of C. jejuni gastroenteritis in humans and contribute to usefulness of the model in studying human disease.