Reliability of COVID-19 data: An evaluation and reflection.

IMPORTANCE: The rapid proliferation of COVID-19 has left governments scrambling, and several data aggregators are now assisting in the reporting of county cases and deaths. The different variables affecting reporting (e.g., time delays in reporting) necessitates a well-documented reliability study examining the data methods and discussion of possible causes of differences between aggregators. OBJECTIVE: To statistically evaluate the reliability of COVID-19 data across aggregators using case fatality rate (CFR) estimates and reliability statistics. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Cases and deaths were collected daily by volunteers via state and local health departments, as primary sources and newspaper reports, as secondary sources. In an effort to begin comparison for reliability statistical analysis, BroadStreet collected data from other COVID-19 aggregator sources, including USAFacts, Johns Hopkins University, New York Times, The COVID Tracking Project. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: COVID-19 cases and death counts at the county and state levels. RESULTS: Lower levels of inter-rater agreement were observed across aggregators associated with the number of deaths, which manifested itself in state level Bayesian estimates of COVID-19 fatality rates. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: A national, publicly available data set is needed for current and future disease outbreaks and improved reliability in reporting.

Exhalation of alternative tobacco product aerosols differs from cigarette smoke-and may lead to alternative health risks.

BACKGROUND: Variation in alternative tobacco product (ATP) constituents, heating potential, and consumer behaviors have made it difficult to characterize their health risks. To date, most toxicity studies of ATPs have used established cigarette endpoints to inform study design. Furthermore, to assess where ATPs fall on the tobacco harm continuum, with cigarettes representing maximum potential risk, studies have tended to compare the relative biological responses to ATPs against those due to cigarettes. OBJECTIVES: 1) To characterize the exhalation profiles of two popular ATPs: electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) and hookah waterpipes (hookah) and 2) to determine if ATP exhalation patterns were representative of cigarette exhalation patterns. METHODS: Exhalation patterns were recorded (mouth only, nose only, or both mouth and nose) among individuals observed in the New York City tri-state area using a recognizable tobacco product (cigarette, e-cigarette, or hookah). Cigarette smokers and e-cigarette vapers were observed on city streets; water-pipe smokers were observed inside Manhattan hookah bars. RESULTS: E-cigarette vapers practiced exclusive nasal exhalation at far higher rates than did cigarette smokers (19.5% vs 4.9%). Among vapers, e-cigarette device type was also significantly associated with exhalation profile. Overall, cigarette smokers exhaled from their nose approximately half to one-third as often as ATP users (hookah and e-cigarettes, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Nasal exhalation of tobacco emissions appears to be a shared characteristic across several types of ATPs. It is therefore plausible that ATP-specific consumer behaviors may foster unique upper respiratory health consequences that have not been observed in smokers. Thus, product-specific behaviors should inform the prioritization of biological endpoints used in studies evaluating ATP toxicity and health effects.

E-Cigarette Use, Systemic Inflammation, and Depression.

BACKGROUND: E-cigarette use (vaping) is an emerging public health problem. Depression has been found to be associated with e-cigarette use, and vaping and depression are each associated with elevated systemic inflammation. To date, the role of inflammation in the relationship between vaping and depression has not been explored. OBJECTIVE: To assess the independent associations between e-cigarette use, depression, and inflammation, and to investigate whether the likelihood of depression among current e-cigarette users is associated with systemic inflammation. METHODS: Nationally representative NHANES data from 2015-2018 were used (n = 4961). Systemic inflammation was defined as serum C-reactive protein (CRP) ≥ 8.0 mg/L. Depressed individuals were characterized by a score ≥ 10 on the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9). Current e-cigarette users were defined as individuals who vaped at least once in the past 30 days and these individuals were stratified by use: exclusive users (reported smoking less than 100 combustible cigarettes in their lifetime), dual users (reported current use of electronic and combustible cigarettes), and e-cigarette users who were previous smokers. Bivariate analyses were used to assess independent associations between vaping, depression, and inflammation; and weighted logistic regression analyses adjusting for BMI, sex, and economic status were used to determine the odds ratios (ORs) for depression by e-cigarette category stratified by differential CRP levels. RESULTS: Depression occurred in 16.7% of all e-cigarette users vs. 5.0% of those who never used e-cigarettes (p < 0.001). In adjusted analyses, the following elevated ORs were found: all current e-cigarette users with CRP <8 = 3.37 (95% CI: 2.06, 5.51) vs. CRP ≥8 = 6.70 (2.48, 18.11); exclusive e-cigarette users with CRP <8 = 1.91 (0.78, 4.69) vs. those with CRP ≥8 = 5.09 (1.44, 18.02); and dual users with CRP <8 = 4.31 (2.35, 7.89) vs. those with CRP ≥8 = 7.37 (1.85, 29.41). These ORs indicate that depression is associated with each category of e-cigarette use; however, we found this association did not vary by systemic inflammation level (interaction p-values > 0.05). CONCLUSION: While a pattern of greater ORs for depression among e-cigarette users with elevated CRP provides provocative findings that might suggest a potential role of inflammation in the association between vaping and depression, we failed to find evidence that inflammation clearly moderates this association. While it is possible that depression among e-cigarette users may be influenced by systemic inflammation, a reproduction of the current study is necessary among a larger cohort to elucidate the effect of inflammation on depression among e-cigarette users.