The PEARL score predicts 90-day readmission or death after hospitalisation for acute exacerbation of COPD.

BACKGROUND: One in three patients hospitalised due to acute exacerbation of COPD (AECOPD) is readmitted within 90 days. No tool has been developed specifically in this population to predict readmission or death. Clinicians are unable to identify patients at particular risk, yet resources to prevent readmission are allocated based on clinical judgement. METHODS: In participating hospitals, consecutive admissions of patients with AECOPD were identified by screening wards and reviewing coding records. A tool to predict 90-day readmission or death without readmission was developed in two hospitals (the derivation cohort) and validated in: (a) the same hospitals at a later timeframe (internal validation cohort) and (b) four further UK hospitals (external validation cohort). Performance was compared with ADO, BODEX, CODEX, DOSE and LACE scores. RESULTS: Of 2417 patients, 936 were readmitted or died within 90 days of discharge. The five independent variables in the final model were: Previous admissions, eMRCD score, Age, Right-sided heart failure and Left-sided heart failure (PEARL). The PEARL score was consistently discriminative and accurate with a c-statistic of 0.73, 0.68 and 0.70 in the derivation, internal validation and external validation cohorts. Higher PEARL scores were associated with a shorter time to readmission. CONCLUSIONS: The PEARL score is a simple tool that can effectively stratify patients' risk of 90-day readmission or death, which could help guide readmission avoidance strategies within the clinical and research setting. It is superior to other scores that have been used in this population. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: UKCRN ID 14214.

Validation of the DECAF score to predict hospital mortality in acute exacerbations of COPD.

BACKGROUND: Hospitalisation due to acute exacerbations of COPD (AECOPD) is common, and subsequent mortality high. The DECAF score was derived for accurate prediction of mortality and risk stratification to inform patient care. We aimed to validate the DECAF score, internally and externally, and to compare its performance to other predictive tools. METHODS: The study took place in the two hospitals within the derivation study (internal validation) and in four additional hospitals (external validation) between January 2012 and May 2014. Consecutive admissions were identified by screening admissions and searching coding records. Admission clinical data, including DECAF indices, and mortality were recorded. The prognostic value of DECAF and other scores were assessed by the area under the receiver operator characteristic (AUROC) curve. RESULTS: In the internal and external validation cohorts, 880 and 845 patients were recruited. Mean age was 73.1 (SD 10.3) years, 54.3% were female, and mean (SD) FEV1 45.5 (18.3) per cent predicted. Overall mortality was 7.7%. The DECAF AUROC curve for inhospital mortality was 0.83 (95% CI 0.78 to 0.87) in the internal cohort and 0.82 (95% CI 0.77 to 0.87) in the external cohort, and was superior to other prognostic scores for inhospital or 30-day mortality. CONCLUSIONS: DECAF is a robust predictor of mortality, using indices routinely available on admission. Its generalisability is supported by consistent strong performance; it can identify low-risk patients (DECAF 0-1) potentially suitable for Hospital at Home or early supported discharge services, and high-risk patients (DECAF 3-6) for escalation planning or appropriate early palliation. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: UKCRN ID 14214.

Profound bradycardia associated with NIV removal.

A patient with lower-limb onset ALS presented with a one-month history of vasovagal episodes and a one-week history of cough productive of green sputum and lethargy. She was drowsy and in acute on chronic type-two respiratory failure. She responded to non-invasive ventilation, however she suffered recurrent episodes of profound bradycardia on removal of the mask, which gradually resolved over ten days. We have reviewed the literature and offer a potential explanation for these events.

Dyspnoea severity and pneumonia as predictors of in-hospital mortality and early readmission in acute exacerbations of COPD.

BACKGROUND: Rates of mortality and readmission are high in patients hospitalised with acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD). In this population, the prognostic value of the Medical Research Council Dyspnoea Scale (MRCD) is uncertain, and an extended MRCD (eMRCD) scale has been proposed to improve its utility. Coexistent pneumonia is common and, although the CURB-65 prediction tool is used, its discriminatory value has not been reported. METHODS: Clinical and demographic data were collected on consecutive patients hospitalised with AECOPD. The relationship of stable-state dyspnoea severity to in-hospital mortality and 28-day readmission was assessed. The discriminatory value of CURB-65, MRCD and eMRCD, in the prediction of in-hospital mortality, was assessed and compared. RESULTS: 920 patients were recruited. 10.4% died in-hospital and 19.1% of the 824 survivors were readmitted within 28 days of discharge. During their stable state prior to admission, 34.2% of patients were too breathless to leave the house. Mortality was significantly higher in pneumonic than in non-pneumonic exacerbations (20.1% vs 5.8%, p<0.001). eMRCD was a significantly better discriminator than either CURB-65 or the traditional MRCD scale for predicting in-hospital mortality, and was a stronger prognostic tool than CURB-65 in the subgroup of patients with pneumonic AECOPD. CONCLUSIONS: The severity of dyspnoea in the stable state predicts important clinical outcomes in patients hospitalised with AECOPD. The eMRCD scale identifies a subgroup of patients at a particularly high risk of in-hospital mortality and is a better predictor of mortality risk than CURB-65 in exacerbations complicated by pneumonia.

Predicting outcomes following hospitalization for acute exacerbations of COPD.

Acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) are a frequent cause of hospital admission and are associated with significant morbidity, mortality, high readmission rates and high resource utilization. More accurate prediction of survival and readmission in patients hospitalized with AECOPD should help to optimize clinical management and allocation of resources, including targeting of palliative care and strategies to reduce readmissions. We have reviewed the published retrospective and prospective studies in this field to identify the factors most likely to be of value in predicting in-hospital and post-discharge mortality, and readmission of patients hospitalized for AECOPD. The prognostic factors which appear most important vary with the particular outcome under consideration. In-hospital mortality is related most clearly to the patient's acute physiological state and to the development of acute comorbidity, while post-discharge mortality particularly reflects the severity of the underlying COPD, as well as specific comorbidities, especially cardiac disease. Important factors influencing the frequency of readmission include functional limitation and poor health-related quality of life. Large prospective studies which incorporate all the potentially relevant variables are required to refine prediction of the important outcomes of AECOPD and thus to inform clinical decision making, for example on escalation of care, facilitated discharge and provision of palliative care.

Night-to-night variation in snoring sound severity: one night studies are not reliable.

OBJECTIVES: To quantify the night-to-night variation in snoring severity; to compare this with inter-subject variation in snoring intensity: to compare multinight mean snoring scores with self-reported subjective scores. DESIGN: Prospective observational study. SETTING: Subjects were recorded during sleep at their own homes. PARTICIPANTS: Twenty patients with socially disruptive snoring awaiting surgery. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Over four consecutive nights using a solid-state sound recording device, the mean, standard deviation and intra-class correlation coefficient were calculated for (a) the loudest 1% of sound, (b) snore frequency and (c) total snore duration. Results were correlated with Snoring Symptom Inventory scores assessed immediately prior to these recordings. RESULTS: Overall mean and intrasubject standard deviation for the loudest 1% of sound was 65.0 (+/-4.1) dB, for snore frequency was 245 (+/-104) per hour and for total snore duration was 4.3% (+/-2.1). Intraclass correlation coefficients were 0.78, 0.74 and 0.67, respectively, suggesting only moderate reliability of these outcome measures. No significant correlation was found between objective and subjective scores for either endpoint. CONCLUSION: Natural night-to-night variation in snoring severity represents a significant proportion of overall snoring variance, thus one night studies of snoring are not reliable. The random error associated with one-night studies exceeds the expected effect size of snoring interventions and so multi-night studies of at least four nights are recommended to reduce the error. However, even multi-night objective measurements correlate poorly with subjective scores of snoring.

Randomised cross-over study of oral appliances for snoring.

OBJECTIVES: To compare a mandibular advancement splint to a control bite raising appliance in the treatment of snoring with or without mild obstructive sleep apnoea syndrome. DESIGN: A prospective two-treatment randomised cross-over clinical trial. SETTING: Single centre secondary care Dental Hospital. PARTICIPANTS: Fifty-two subjects (36 men, 16 women) diagnosed with non-apnoeic snoring or mild obstructive sleep apnoea syndrome (apnoea/hypopnoea index < or =15 events/h), were recruited from Departments of Respiratory Medicine and ENT surgery, Newcastle upon Tyne Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The Snoring Symptoms Inventory questionnaire (SSI) and the Epworth Sleepiness Score (ESS) were used to evaluate changes in symptoms. Patient reported outcomes (compliance, adverse events, splint preference) were recorded by questionnaire. Subjects attended for five study visits and used a mandibular advancement splint and a bite raising appliance at home each for 4 weeks, with a 3-week washout period between devices. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Thirty-eight subjects completed the study. Both the mandibular advancement splint and bite raising appliance significantly reduced the SSI compared to the baseline scores: mandibular advancement splint 5.5, P = 0.013; bite raising appliance 3.1, P = 0.005. No statistically significant difference between the two treatment periods was detected (P > 0.05). The reduction in the Epworth Sleepiness Score was: mandibular advancement splint 1.0, P = 0.02; bite raising appliance 0.3, P = 0.4. The change in the Epworth Sleepiness Score was not statistically significantly different between the mandibular advancement splint and bite raising appliance treatment periods (P > 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort of patients diagnosed with snoring +/- mild OSA: 1 both the mandibular advancement splint and bite raising appliance designs of splint appeared to reduce the symptoms of snoring; 2 no difference in the magnitude of this effect was detected in favour of one design of splint.

Spatio-temporal stochastic modelling of Clostridium difficile.

Clostridium difficile-associated diarrhoea (CDAD) occurs sporadically or in small discrete outbreaks. Stochastic models may help to inform hospital infection control strategies. Bayesian framework using data augmentation and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods were applied to a spatio-temporal model of CDAD. Model simulations were validated against 17 months of observed data from two 30-bedded medical wards for the elderly. Simulating the halving of transmission rates of C. difficile from other patients and the environment reduced CDAD cases by 15%. Doubling the rate at which patients become susceptible increased predicted CDAD incidence by 63%. By contrast, doubling environmental load made hardly any difference, increasing CDAD incidence by only 3%. Simulation of different interventions indicates that for the same effect size, reducing patient susceptibility to infection is more effective in reducing the number of CDAD cases than lowering transmission rates.

Constructing the effect of alternative intervention strategies on historic epidemics.

Data from historical epidemics provide a vital and sometimes under-used resource from which to devise strategies for future control of disease. Previous methods for retrospective analysis of epidemics, in which alternative interventions are compared, do not make full use of the information; by using only partial information on the historical trajectory, augmentation of control may lead to predictions of a paradoxical increase in disease. Here we introduce a novel statistical approach that takes full account of the available information in constructing the effect of alternative intervention strategies in historic epidemics. The key to the method lies in identifying a suitable mapping between the historic and notional outbreaks, under alternative control strategies. We do this by using the Sellke construction as a latent process linking epidemics. We illustrate the application of the method with two examples. First, using temporal data for the common human cold, we show the improvement under the new method in the precision of predictions for different control strategies. Second, we show the generality of the method for retrospective analysis of epidemics by applying it to a spatially extended arboreal epidemic in which we demonstrate the relative effectiveness of host culling strategies that differ in frequency and spatial extent. Some of the inferential and philosophical issues that arise are discussed along with the scope of potential application of the new method.

Evaluation of a transcutaneous carbon dioxide monitor ("TOSCA") in adult patients in routine respiratory practice.

BACKGROUND: Non-invasive measurement of oxygenation is routine in adult clinical practice but transcutaneous monitoring of PCO(2) (PtcCO(2)) is used much less due to technical difficulties with earlier transcutaneous electrodes. OBJECTIVE: Our aim was to determine the reliability of estimating arterial PCO(2) (PaCO(2)) using a recently introduced combined SaO(2)/PtcCO(2) monitor ("TOSCA", Linde Medical Systems) in adult patients in routine clinical respiratory practice. METHODS: PtcCO(2) was measured in patients requiring arterial blood gases for clinical reasons. Ten minutes after the probe had been attached to an earlobe PtcCO(2) was recorded, immediately before arterial blood sampling. The PCO(2) values obtained were compared by Bland-Altman analysis. RESULTS: Samples were taken from 48 unselected patients with varied pathology. There were no technical problems. Median age was 56 years (range 20-86 years). The mean difference between PaCO(2) and PtcCO(2) was -0.04kPa, sd of the difference 0.67kPa. Bland-Altman analysis showed generally good agreement between the two measurements across the range of PaCO(2) values (4-10.9kPa). Four of 48 measurements showed a PCO(2) difference >1kPa with no technical or clinical explanations apparent. CONCLUSIONS: The accuracy of estimation of PaCO(2) by the TOSCA transcutaneous electrode was generally good and the device appears promising for use in routine clinical respiratory practice.

Umbilical cord plasma concentrations of free morphine following single-dose diamorphine analgesia and their relationship to dose-delivery time interval, Apgar scores and neonatal respiration.

OBJECTIVE: To find the effect of dose-delivery interval on cord-blood levels of diamorphine metabolites and its effect on Apgar sores and neonatal respiration. STUDY DESIGN: Pilot study conducted in labour ward of a district general hospital. One hundred women who had normal delivery and received single dose of 7.5mg of intramuscular injection of diamorphine in labour were recruited in the study. A 2.0 ml sample of umbilical venous blood was collected from the placenta after delivery of the baby. The sample was analysed using RIA method to measure free morphine. Details about the labour and baby's condition at birth were recorded. RESULTS: The concentration of free morphine in the umbilical venous blood was significantly associated with the dose-delivery interval (coefficient (95% CI)=1.08(0.99-1.18), p<0.001). Twenty neonates had low Apgar score (< or =7) at 1 min. The odds of such a low score were raised with higher log free morphine in the cord venous plasma, but not statistically significantly (OR (95% CI)=5.3 (0.84-34), p=0.08). Fourteen neonates required resuscitation. The odds of requiring resuscitation were significantly raised with higher log free morphine: OR (95% CI)=9.3 (1.0-86), p=0.05. CONCLUSION: Concentration of free morphine in the umbilical venous blood after delivery was significantly associated with the dose-delivery interval and this had significant effect on the need for resuscitation.

Bayesian inference of hospital-acquired infectious diseases and control measures given imperfect surveillance data.

This paper describes a stochastic epidemic model developed to infer transmission rates of asymptomatic communicable pathogens within a hospital ward. Inference is complicated by partial observation of the epidemic process and dependencies within the data. The epidemic process of nosocomial communicable pathogens can be partially observed by routine swabs testing for the presence of the pathogen. False-negative swab results must be accounted for and make it difficult to ascertain the number of patients who were colonized. Reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used within a Bayesian framework to make inferences about the colonization rates and unknown colonization times. The methods are applied to routinely collected data concerning methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus Aureus in an intensive care unit to estimate the effectiveness of isolation on reducing transmission of the bacterium.

Silencing the snorers: no gain without pain?

OBJECTIVE: To compare the estimated effects of conservative surgery to those of a mandibular advancement splint (MAS) in the treatment of habitual snoring. METHOD: Prospective, observational, non-randomized cohort study. RESULTS: Adequate follow-up data were available for 88 participants (23 following coblation, 65 after provision of an MAS). The mean reduction in snoring symptoms inventory (SSI) score for the 23 subjects undergoing coblation was 9.83 (+/-standard deviation 11.43). Reported pain duration was greatest with uvula amputation, but uvula coblation did not always adequately reduce its bulk. Of the 65 MAS patients, 39 (60 per cent) used the device regularly, with a mean fall in SSI of 12 (+/-16.4, p=0.001). Approximately one in four patients in both groups achieved a significant fall in SSI (>15 points), and the measured effect sizes were close to 0.75 for both treatments. CONCLUSIONS: Mandibular advancement splints and coblation have similar efficacies. However, their efficacy does not match that of radical surgery.

Matrix concentration of insulin-like growth factor I (IGF-I) is negatively associated with biomechanical properties of human tibial cancellous bone within individual subjects.

Insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I), abundant in bone matrix, is believed to play an important role during bone development and remodeling. To our knowledge, however, few studies have addressed the relationship between the concentration of IGF-I in bone matrix and the biomechanical properties of bone tissue. In this study, forty-five cylindrical specimens of cancellous bone were harvested from six human tibiae and scanned using micro-computed tomography (microCT). The bone volume fraction (BV/TV) was calculated from three-dimensional (3D) microCT images. Mechanical tests were then performed on a servohydraulic testing system to determine the strength and stiffness of cancellous bone. Following mechanical testing, the concentration of IGF-I in bone matrix was measured by using an enzyme-linked immunoabsorbent assay (ELISA). Within each subject, the concentration of IGF-I in bone matrix had significant (P<0.01) negative correlations with the bone volume fraction, strength, and stiffness of cancellous bone. In particular, the anterior quadrant of the proximal tibia was significantly (P<0.02) greater in IGF-I matrix concentration and marginally significantly lower in strength (P=0.053) and stiffness (P=0.059) than the posterior quadrant. The negative correlations between the cancellous bone matrix concentration of IGF-I and cancellous bone biomechanical properties within subjects found in this study may help us understand the variation of the biomechanical properties of cancellous bone in proximal human tibiae.

Bayesian analysis of botanical epidemics using stochastic compartmental models.

A stochastic model for an epidemic, incorporating susceptible, latent, and infectious states, is developed. The model represents primary and secondary infection rates and a time-varying host susceptibility with applications to a wide range of epidemiological systems. A Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is presented that allows the model to be fitted to experimental observations within a Bayesian framework. The approach allows the uncertainty in unobserved aspects of the process to be represented in the parameter posterior densities. The methods are applied to experimental observations of damping-off of radish (Raphanus sativus) caused by the fungal pathogen Rhizoctonia solani, in the presence and absence of the antagonistic fungus Trichoderma viride, a biological control agent that has previously been shown to affect the rate of primary infection by using a maximum-likelihood estimate for a simpler model with no allowance for a latent period. Using the Bayesian analysis, we are able to estimate the latent period from population data, even when there is uncertainty in discriminating infectious from latently infected individuals in data collection. We also show that the inference that T. viride can control primary, but not secondary, infection is robust to inclusion of the latent period in the model, although the absolute values of the parameters change. Some refinements and potential difficulties with the Bayesian approach in this context, when prior information on parameters is lacking, are discussed along with broader applications of the methods to a wide range of epidemiological systems.