Intra-urban risk assessment of occupational injuries and illnesses associated with current and projected climate: Evidence from three largest Australian cities.

BACKGROUND: Increased risk of occupational injuries and illnesses (OI) is associated with ambient temperature. However, most studies have reported the average impacts within cities, states, or provinces at broader scales. METHODS: We assessed the intra-urban risk of OI associated with ambient temperature in three Australian cities at statistical area level 3 (SA3). We collected daily workers' compensation claims data and gridded meteorological data from July 1, 2005, to June 30, 2018. Heat index was used as the primary temperature metric. We performed a two-stage time series analysis: we generated location-specific estimates using Distributed Lag Non-Linear Models (DLNM) and estimated the cumulative effects with multivariate meta-analysis. The risk was estimated at moderate heat (90th percentile) and extreme heat (99th percentile). Subgroup analyses were conducted to identify vulnerable groups of workers. Further, the OI risk in the future was estimated for two projected periods: 2016-2045 and 2036-2065. RESULTS: The cumulative risk of OI was 3.4% in Greater Brisbane, 9.5% in Greater Melbourne, and 8.9% in Greater Sydney at extreme heat. The western inland regions in Greater Brisbane (17.4%) and Greater Sydney (32.3%) had higher risk of OI for younger workers, workers in outdoor and indoor industries, and workers reporting injury claims. The urbanized SA3 regions posed a higher risk (19.3%) for workers in Greater Melbourne. The regions were generally at high risk for young workers and illness-related claims. The projected risk of OI increased with time in climate change scenarios. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a comprehensive spatial profile of OI risk associated with hot weather conditions across three cities in Australia. Risk assessment at the intra-urban level revealed strong spatial patterns in OI risk distribution due to heat exposure. These findings provide much-needed scientific evidence for work, health, and safety regulators, industries, unions, and workers to design and implement location-specific preventative measures.

Protocol for a nested case-control study design for omics investigations in the Environmental Determinants of Islet Autoimmunity cohort.

Background: The Environmental Determinants of Islet Autoimmunity (ENDIA) pregnancy-birth cohort investigates the developmental origins of type 1 diabetes (T1D), with recruitment between 2013 and 2019. ENDIA is the first study in the world with comprehensive data and biospecimen collection during pregnancy, at birth and through childhood from at-risk children who have a first-degree relative with T1D. Environmental exposures are thought to drive the progression to clinical T1D, with pancreatic islet autoimmunity (IA) developing in genetically susceptible individuals. The exposures and key molecular mechanisms driving this progression are unknown. Persistent IA is the primary outcome of ENDIA; defined as a positive antibody for at least one of IAA, GAD, ZnT8 or IA2 on two consecutive occasions and signifies high risk of clinical T1D.Method: A nested case-control (NCC) study design with 54 cases and 161 matched controls aims to investigate associations between persistent IA and longitudinal omics exposures in ENDIA. The NCC study will analyse samples obtained from ENDIA children who have either developed persistent IA or progressed to clinical T1D (cases) and matched control children at risk of developing persistent IA. Control children were matched on sex and age, with all four autoantibodies absent within a defined window of the case's onset date. Cases seroconverted at a median of 1.37 years (IQR 0.95, 2.56). Longitudinal omics data generated from approximately 16,000 samples of different biospecimen types, will enable evaluation of changes from pregnancy through childhood.Conclusions: This paper describes the ENDIA NCC study, omics platform design considerations and planned univariate and multivariate analyses for its longitudinal data. Methodologies for multivariate omics analysis with longitudinal data are discovery-focused and data driven. There is currently no single multivariate method tailored specifically for the longitudinal omics data that the ENDIA NCC study will generate and therefore omics analysis results will require either cross validation or independent validation.KEY MESSAGESThe ENDIA nested case-control study will utilize longitudinal omics data on approximately 16,000 samples from 190 unique children at risk of type 1 diabetes (T1D), including 54 who have developed islet autoimmunity (IA), followed during pregnancy, at birth and during early childhood, enabling the developmental origins of T1D to be explored.

A comparison of survival models for prediction of eight-year revision risk following total knee and hip arthroplasty.

BACKGROUND: There is increasing interest in the development and use of clinical prediction models, but a lack of evidence-supported guidance on the merits of different modelling approaches. This is especially true for time-to-event outcomes, where limited studies have compared the vast number of modelling approaches available. This study compares prediction accuracy and variable importance measures for four modelling approaches in prediction of time-to-revision surgery following total knee arthroplasty (TKA) and total hip arthroplasty (THA). METHODS: The study included 321,945 TKA and 151,113 THA procedures performed between 1 January 2003 and 31 December 2017. Accuracy of the Cox model, Weibull parametric model, flexible parametric model, and random survival forest were compared, with patient age, sex, comorbidities, and prosthesis characteristics considered as predictors. Prediction accuracy was assessed using the Index of Prediction Accuracy (IPA), c-index, and smoothed calibration curves. Variable importance rankings from the Cox model and random survival forest were also compared. RESULTS: Overall, the Cox and flexible parametric survival models performed best for prediction of both TKA (integrated IPA 0.056 (95% CI [0.054, 0.057]) compared to 0.054 (95% CI [0.053, 0.056]) for the Weibull parametric model), and THA revision. (0.029 95% CI [0.027, 0.030] compared to 0.027 (95% CI [0.025, 0.028]) for the random survival forest). The c-index showed broadly similar discrimination between all modelling approaches. Models were generally well calibrated, but random survival forest underfitted the predicted risk of TKA revision compared to regression approaches. The most important predictors of revision were similar in the Cox model and random survival forest for TKA (age, opioid use, and patella resurfacing) and THA (femoral cement, depression, and opioid use). CONCLUSION: The Cox and flexible parametric models had superior overall performance, although all approaches performed similarly. Notably, this study showed no benefit of a tuned random survival forest over regression models in this setting.

A Prospective Study Investigating the Impact of Obesity on the Immune Response to the Quadrivalent Influenza Vaccine in Children and Adolescents.

Obesity can increase the severity of influenza infection. Data are limited regarding immune responses to influenza vaccination in obese children. We aimed to investigate the impact of obesity on quadrivalent influenza vaccine responses in children. Children with obesity (body mass index (BMI) ≥ 95th percentile for age and gender) and children without obesity (BMI < 95th percentile) were enrolled in the study. Blood samples were collected before, 1, and 6 months after influenza vaccination, to measure antibody responses by haemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay. Vaccine immunogenicity outcomes were compared between children with and without obesity. Forty-four children (mean age 13.3 ± 2.1 years, 18 males and 14 with obesity) completed the 6-month study. More than 90% of the participants with and without obesity had seroprotective antibody titres (HI ≥ 40) at both 1 and 6 months following vaccination for each of the four influenza strains (A/H3N2, A/H1N1, B/(Victoria) and B/(Yamagata)). Influenza-specific geometric mean titres at baseline, 1, and 6 months post-vaccination were similar between children with and without obesity for all influenza vaccine strains. Children with and without obesity have robust, sustained antibody responses over 6 months to the quadrivalent influenza vaccine.

Outdoor ambient temperatures and occupational injuries and illnesses: Are there risk differences in various regions within a city?

Increased risk of occupational injuries and illnesses (OI) is associated with hot ambient temperatures. However, the existing evidence of risk estimation is limited to large regions at the city or provincial scales. For effective and localized occupational health risk management, spatio-temporal analysis should be carried out at the intra-city level to identify high-risk areas within cities. This study examined the exposure-response relationship between ambient temperatures and OI at the intra-city scale in Greater Adelaide, Australia. Vulnerable groups of workers, in terms of workers' characteristics, the nature of their work, and workplace characteristics were identified. Further, the projected risk of OI was quantified in various climate change scenarios. The temperature-OI association was estimated using a time-series study design combined with Distributed Lag Non-linear Models. Daily workers' compensation claims (2005-2018) were merged with 5 km gridded meteorological data of maximum temperature (°C) at Statistical Area Level 3 in Greater Adelaide. Region-wise subgroup analyses were conducted to identify vulnerable groups of workers. Future projections (2006-2100) were conducted using downscaled climate projections and the risk was quantified using log-linear extrapolation. The analyses were performed in R 4.1.0. The overall OI risk was 16.7% (95%CI: 10.8-23.0) at moderate heat (90th percentile) and increased to 25.0% (95%CI: 16.4-34.2) at extreme heat (99th percentile). Northern Adelaide had a higher risk of OI for all types of workers at moderate heat, while western regions had a high risk for indoor industries. Southern and eastern regions had a higher OI risk for males, older workers, and outdoor industries at extreme heat. The projected risk of OI is estimated to increase from 20.8% (95%CI: -0.2-46.3) in 2010s to 22.9% (95%CI: -8.0-64.1) by 2050s. Spatio-temporal risk assessment at the intra-city scale can help us identify high-risk areas, where targeted interventions can be efficiently employed to reduce the socio-economic burden of OI.

Body mass index and vaccine responses following influenza vaccination during pregnancy.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Influenza vaccination is recommended by the World Health Organisation for pregnant women, offering the dual benefit of protecting pregnant women and their newborn infants against influenza infection. Various factors can influence vaccine immunogenicity, with obesity being one factor implicated in varied responses. This study aimed to investigate the impact of body mass index (BMI) on vaccine responses following influenza vaccination during pregnancy. METHODS: Pregnant women attending the Women's and Children's Hospital in South Australia during 2014-2016 were invited to participate. Participant's clinical and demographic factors were recorded prior to administration of licensed seasonal influenza vaccination. Blood samples were collected before and one month post-vaccination to measure antibody responses by haemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay. Seroprotection was defined as a post-vaccination HI titre ≥ 1:40. Regression models assessed associations with failure to achieve seroprotective antibodies to H1, H3, and B influenza strains. RESULTS: A total of 96 women were enrolled in the study at a median gestation of 22 weeks with a BMI range of 18-49 kg/m2. Paired sera samples were available for 90/96 (94%). Most pregnant women (72/90, 80%) demonstrated seroprotective antibody titres to all three influenza vaccine antigens (A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2), B/Yamagata) following vaccination. Compared with women with BMI < 30 kg/m2, those with high BMI were less likely to fail to achieve seroprotective antibodies, however this was not statistically significant (RR 0.42, 95% CI 0.11-1.68; p = 0.22). A greater proportion of women vaccinated during their second (47/53, 93%) or third trimester (18/25, 72%) demonstrated seroprotection to all three vaccine antigens following vaccination compared with women vaccinated during their first trimester (7/12, 58%). CONCLUSION: High BMI did not impair seroprotection levels following influenza vaccination in pregnant women. Gestation at vaccination may be an important consideration for optimising vaccine protection for pregnant women and their newborns. Further assessment of first trimester influenza vaccine responses is warranted.

Lessons for and from the COVID-19 pandemic response - An appraisal of guidance for the public health management of Invasive Meningococcal Disease.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 has focussed public attention on the management of communicable disease like never before. Surveillance, contact tracing, and case management are recognised as key components of outbreak prevention. Development of guidance for COVID-19 has drawn from existing management of other communicable diseases, including Invasive Meningococcal Disease (IMD). IMD is a rare but severe outcome of Neisseria meningitidis infection that can be prevented through vaccination. Cases still occur sporadically, requiring ongoing surveillance and consistent management. To this end, national and international public health agencies have developed and published guidance for identification and management of IMD cases. AIM: To assess national and international guidelines for the public health management of IMD, with a focus on the recommendations for identification and management of "close contacts" to IMD cases. METHODS: Guidelines from six national and international public health agencies were assessed using a modified version of the Appraisal of Guidelines, Research and Evaluation (AGREE II) Instrument in four key domains: stakeholder involvement, developmental rigour, clarity, and applicability. A direct comparison of terminology and recommendations for identification and management of close contacts to IMD cases was also conducted. RESULTS: Guidelines from Europe and the United Kingdom rated most highly using the AGREE II Instrument, both presenting a clear, critical assessment of the strength of the available evidence, and the risks, costs, and benefits behind recommendations for management of close contacts. Direct comparison of guidelines identified inconsistencies in the language defining close contacts to IMD cases. CONCLUSION: Discrepancies between guidelines could be due to limited evidence concerning mechanisms behind disease transmission, along with the lack of a consistent process for development and review of guideline recommendations. COVID-19 management has demonstrated that international collaboration for development of public health guidance is possible, a practice that should be extended to management of other communicable diseases.

Evaluating the effectiveness of the 4CMenB vaccine against invasive meningococcal disease and gonorrhoea in an infant, child and adolescent program: protocol.

Invasive meningococcal disease causes significant morbidity and mortality worldwide, with serogroup B being one of the predominant serogroups in Australia for many years. The South Australian (SA) State Government recently funded the introduction of a 4CMenB vaccination program for infants, children and adolescents. In addition to protecting against invasive meningococcal disease, emerging evidence suggests the 4CMenB vaccine may also be effective against gonorrhoea due to genetic similarities between Neisseria meningitidis and Neisseria gonorrhoeae. The proposed project aims to evaluate the effectiveness of the SA 4CMenB vaccination program against invasive meningococcal disease and gonorrhoea through a combination of observational studies using routine surveillance and research data. The main methodological approaches involve an interrupted time series regression model, screening, and case-control analyses with different sets of controls to estimate vaccine impact and effectiveness. These analyses are designed to minimize potential biases inherent in all observational studies and to provide critical data on the effectiveness of the 4CMenB vaccine against two diseases of major global public health concern.

Extreme heat and occupational injuries in different climate zones: A systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological evidence.

BACKGROUND: The link between heat exposure and adverse health outcomes in workers is well documented and a growing body of epidemiological evidence from various countries suggests that extreme heat may also contribute to increased risk of occupational injuries (OI). Previously, there have been no comparative reviews assessing the risk of OI due to extreme heat within a wide range of global climate zones. The present review therefore aims to summarise the existing epidemiological evidence on the impact of extreme heat (hot temperatures and heatwaves (HW)) on OI in different climate zones and to assess the individual risk factors associated with workers and workplace that contribute to heat-associated OI risks. METHODS: A systematic review of published peer-reviewed articles that assessed the effects of extreme heat on OI among non-military workers was undertaken using three databases (PubMed, Embase and Scopus) without temporal or geographical limits from database inception until July 2020. Extreme heat exposure was assessed in terms of hot temperatures and HW periods. For hot temperatures, the effect estimates were converted to relative risks (RR) associated with 1 °C increase in temperature above reference values, while for HW, effect estimates were RR comparing heatwave with non-heatwave periods. The patterns of heat associated OI risk were investigated in different climate zones (according to Köppen Geiger classification) based on the study locations and were estimated using random-effects meta-analysis models. Subgroup analyses according to workers' characteristics (e.g. gender, age group, experience), nature of work (e.g. physical demands, location of work i.e. indoor/outdoor) and workplace characteristics (e.g. industries, business size) were also conducted. RESULTS: A total of 24 studies published between 2005 and 2020 were included in the review. Among these, 22 studies met the eligibility criteria, representing almost 22 million OI across six countries (Australia, Canada, China, Italy, Spain, and USA) and were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled results suggested that the overall risk of OI increased by 1% (RR 1.010, 95% CI: 1.009-1.011) for 1 °C increase in temperature above reference values and 17.4% (RR 1.174, 95% CI: 1.057-1.291) during HW. Among different climate zones, the highest risk of OI during hot temperatures was identified in Humid Subtropical Climates (RR 1.017, 95% CI: 1.014-1.020) followed by Oceanic (RR 1.010, 95% CI: 1.008-1.012) and Hot Mediterranean Climates (RR 1.009, 95% CI: 1.008-1.011). Similarly, Oceanic (RR 1.218, 95% CI: 1.093-1.343) and Humid Subtropical Climates (RR 1.213, 95% CI: 0.995-1.431) had the highest risk of OI during HW periods. No studies assessing the risk of OI in Tropical regions were found. The effects of hot temperatures on the risk of OI were acute with a lag effect of 1-2 days in all climate zones. Young workers (age < 35 years), male workers and workers in agriculture, forestry or fishing, construction and manufacturing industries were at high risk of OI during hot temperatures. Further young workers (age < 35 years), male workers and those working in electricity, gas and water and manufacturing industries were found to be at high risk of OI during HW. CONCLUSIONS: This review strengthens the evidence on the risk of heat-associated OI in different climate zones. The risk of OI associated with extreme heat is not evenly distributed and is dependent on underlying climatic conditions, workers' attributes, the nature of work and workplace characteristics. The differences in the risk of OI across different climate zones and worker subgroups warrant further investigation along with the development of climate and work-specific intervention strategies.

What Is the Effect of Using a Competing-risks Estimator when Predicting Survivorship After Joint Arthroplasty: A Comparison of Approaches to Survivorship Estimation in a Large Registry.

BACKGROUND: There is increasing interest in the development of statistical models that can be used to estimate risk of adverse patient outcomes after joint arthroplasty. Competing risk approaches have been recommended to estimate risk of longer-term revision, which is often likely to be precluded by the competing risk of death. However, a common approach is to ignore the competing risk by treating death as a censoring event and using standard survival models such as Cox regression. It is well-known that this approach can overestimate the event risk for population-level estimates, but the impact on the estimation of a patient's individualized risk after joint arthroplasty has not been explored. QUESTIONS/PURPOSES: We performed this study to (1) determine whether using a competing risk or noncompeting risk method affects the accuracy of predictive models for joint arthroplasty revision and (2) determine the magnitude of difference that using a competing risks versus noncompeting risks approach will make to predicted risks for individual patients. METHODS: The predictive performance of a standard Cox model, with competing risks treated as censoring events, was compared with the performance of two competing risks approaches, the cause-specific Cox model and Fine-Gray model. Models were trained and tested using data pertaining to 531,304 TKAs and 274,618 THAs recorded in the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry between January 1, 2003 and December 31, 2017. The registry is a large database with near-complete capture and follow-up of all hip and knee joint arthroplasty in Australia from 2003 onwards, making it an ideal setting for this study. The performance of the three modeling approaches was compared in two different prediction settings: prediction of the 10-year risk of all-cause revision after TKA and prediction of revision for periprosthetic fracture after THA. The calibration and discrimination of each approach were compared using the concordance index, integrated Brier scores, and calibration plots. Calibration of 10-year risk estimates was further assessed within subgroups of age by comparing the observed and predicted proportion of events. Estimated 10-year risks from each model were also compared in three hypothetical patients with different risk profiles to determine whether differences in population-level performance metrics would translate into a meaningful difference for individual patient predictions. RESULTS: The standard Cox and two competing risks models showed near-identical ability to distinguish between high-risk and low-risk patients (c-index 0.64 [95% CI, 0.64 to 0.64] for all three modeling approaches for TKAs and 0.66 [95% CI 0.66 to 0.66] for THA). All models performed similarly in patients younger than 75 years, but for patients aged 75 years and older, the standard Cox model overestimated the risk of revision more than the cause-specific Cox and Fine-Gray model did. These results were echoed when predictions were made for hypothetical individual patients. For patients with a low competing risk of mortality, the 10-year predicted risks from the standard Cox, cause-specific Cox, and Fine-Gray models were similar for TKAs and THAs. However, a larger difference was observed for hypothetical 89-year-old patients with increased mortality risk. In TKAs, the revision risk for an 89-year-old patient was so low that this difference was negligible (0.83% from the cause-specific Cox model versus 1.1% from the standard Cox model). However, for THAs, where older age is a risk factor for both death and revision for periprosthetic fracture, a larger difference was observed in the 10-year predicted risks for a hypothetical 89-year-old patient (3.4% from the cause-specific Cox model versus 5.2% from the standard Cox model). CONCLUSION: When developing models to predict longer-term revision of joint arthroplasty, failing to use a competing risks modeling approach will result in overestimating the revision risk for patients with a high risk of mortality during the surveillance period. However, even in an extreme instance, where both the frequency of the event of interest and the competing risk of death are high, the largest absolute difference in predicted 10-year risk for an individual patient was just 1.8%, which may not be of consequence to an individual. Despite these findings, when developing or using risk prediction models, researchers and clinicians should be aware of how competing risks were handled in the modeling process, particularly if the model is intended for use populations where the mortality risk is high. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level III, therapeutic study.

Safety of maternal pertussis vaccination on pregnancy and birth outcomes: A prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the safety of maternal pertussis vaccination on pregnancy and birth outcomes. METHODS: The study population comprised 1272 healthy nulliparous pregnant women who participated in Screening Tests to identify poor Outcomes in Pregnancy (STOP) study at two obstetric hospitals in South Australia between 2015 and 2018. Participants were followed prospectively, with vaccination (confirmed by medical records), extensive amounts of pregnancy and birth outcome data collected by research midwives. Adjusted relative risks (aRRs) and hazard ratios (aHRs) were estimated accounting for time-varying vaccine exposure and the temporal nature of each outcome. RESULTS: Of the 1272 women included in this study, 80.1% (n = 1019) received maternal pertussis vaccination. Vaccinated women had an average 0.22 weeks (95% CI 0.001, 0.44) longer gestation at delivery compared to unvaccinated women. Maternal pertussis vaccination was not associated with chorioamnionitis (aRR 0.71, 95% CI 0.27,1.82), gestational hypertension (aHR 1.24, 95% CI, 0.66, 2.30), preeclampsia (aHR 0.75, 95% CI 0.47, 1.18) nor preterm birth (aHR 0.99, 95% CI 0.47, 2.07). Neither risk of low birth weight (aHR 0.72, 95% CI 0.41, 1.27) nor small for gestational age infants (aHR 0.67,95% CI 0.29, 1.55) were increased following maternal pertussis vaccination. No associations between pertussis vaccination during pregnancy and adverse birth outcomes including admission to the neonatal care unit, low Apgar scores, and mechanical ventilation were observed. Results were not materially changed after adjustment for maternal influenza vaccination. CONCLUSION: Our study provides reassuring evidence of the safety of maternal pertussis vaccination with no increased risk of adverse pregnancy and birth outcomes. These findings support recommendations for pertussis vaccination during pregnancy to prevent morbidity and mortality associated with early-infant pertussis disease.

Safety and protective effects of maternal influenza vaccination on pregnancy and birth outcomes: A prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Our study aimed to assess the safety and protective effect of maternal influenza vaccination on pregnancy and birth outcomes. METHODS: The study population comprised 1253 healthy nulliparous pregnant women in South Australia between 2015 and 2018. Participants were followed prospectively, with vaccination status (confirmed by medical records), pregnancy, and birth outcome data collected by midwives. Adjusted relative risks (aRRs) and adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) were estimated accounting for time-varying vaccine exposure and temporal nature of each outcome. FINDINGS: Maternal influenza vaccination (48%, 603 of 1253) reduced the risk for pre-delivery hospitalisation with influenza like illness (aHR 0•61; 95% CI 0•39, 0•97). Maternal influenza vaccination was not associated with spontaneous abortion (aHR 0•42, 95% CI 0•12, 1•45), chorioamnionitis (aRR 0•78, 95% CI, 0•32, 1•88), gestational hypertension (aHR 0•78, 95% CI 0•47, 1•29), pre-eclampsia (aHR 0.84, 95% CI 0•54, 1•27), gestational diabetes (aHR 1•16, 95% CI 0•82, 1•66) nor preterm birth (aHR 0•94, 95% CI 0•59, 1•49). No associations between antenatal influenza vaccination and congenital anomalies, admission to the neonatal care unit, low Apgar scores, and mechanical ventilation were observed. Results were not materially changed after adjustment for pertussis vaccination. We observed a protective effect of maternal influenza vaccination on low birth weight (aHR 0•46, 95% CI 0•23, 0•94) and a marginal protective effect on small for gestational age births (aHR 0•65, 95% CI 0•40, 1•04) during periods of high influenza activity. INTERPRETATION: These results support the safety of maternal influenza vaccination and suggest a protective effect in reducing the rates of low birthweight and small for gestational age births. FUNDING: There was no funding for this study.

Changes in pancreatic exocrine function in young at-risk children followed to islet autoimmunity and type 1 diabetes in the ENDIA study.

BACKGROUNDS: We aimed to monitor pancreatic exocrine function longitudinally in relation to the development of islet autoimmunity (IA) and type 1 diabetes (T1D) in at-risk children with a first-degree relative with T1D, who were followed prospectively in the Environmental Determinants of Islet Autoimmunity (ENDIA) study. METHODS: Fecal elastase-1 (FE-1) concentration was measured longitudinally in 85 ENDIA children from median age 1.0 (IQR 0.7,1.3) year. Twenty-eight of 85 children (progressors) developed persistent islet autoantibodies at median age of 1.5 (IQR 1.1,2.5) years, of whom 11 went on to develop clinical diabetes. The other 57 islet autoantibody-negative children (non-progressors) followed similarly were age and gender-matched with the progressors. An adjusted linear mixed model compared FE-1 concentrations in progressors and non-progressors. RESULTS: Baseline FE-1 did not differ between progressors and non-progressors, or by HLA DR type or proband status. FE-1 decreased over time in progressors in comparison to non-progressors (Wald statistic 5.46, P = .02); in some progressors the fall in FE-1 preceded the onset of IA. CONCLUSIONS: Pancreatic exocrine function decreases in the majority of young at-risk children who progress to IA and T1D.

Higher frequency of vertebrate-infecting viruses in the gut of infants born to mothers with type 1 diabetes.

BACKGROUND: Microbial exposures in utero and early life shape the infant microbiome, which can profoundly impact on health. Compared to the bacterial microbiome, very little is known about the virome. We set out to characterize longitudinal changes in the gut virome of healthy infants born to mothers with or without type 1 diabetes using comprehensive virome capture sequencing. METHODS: Healthy infants were selected from Environmental Determinants of Islet Autoimmunity (ENDIA), a prospective cohort of Australian children with a first-degree relative with type 1 diabetes, followed from pregnancy. Fecal specimens were collected three-monthly in the first year of life. RESULTS: Among 25 infants (44% born to mothers with type 1 diabetes) at least one virus was detected in 65% (65/100) of samples and 96% (24/25) of infants during the first year of life. In total, 26 genera of viruses were identified and >150 viruses were differentially abundant between the gut of infants with a mother with type 1 diabetes vs without. Positivity for any virus was associated with maternal type 1 diabetes and older infant age. Enterovirus was associated with older infant age and maternal smoking. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate a distinct gut virome profile in infants of mothers with type 1 diabetes, which may influence health outcomes later in life. Higher prevalence and greater number of viruses observed compared to previous studies suggests significant underrepresentation in existing virome datasets, arising most likely from less sensitive techniques used in data acquisition.

Relationship between birth weight or fetal growth rate and postnatal allergy: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Individual susceptibility to allergic diseases is developmentally programmed by early-life exposures. Evidence from preclinical studies suggests that intrauterine growth restriction is protective against later inflammatory responses to allergens. OBJECTIVE: We sought to evaluate whether prenatal growth affects susceptibility to allergy in human subjects. METHODS: We systematically searched for relevant studies in 11 databases, including Web of Science, ProQuest, EMBASE, and PubMed. We included only studies that corrected for gestational age or were restricted to full-term infants to separate effects of fetal growth from those of prematurity. RESULTS: The 42 eligible studies included prospective and retrospective cohort, cross-sectional, and case-control studies. Only 2 studies reported allergic asthma. A birth weight increase of 1 kg was associated with a 44% greater risk of food allergy in children (odds ratio [OR], 1.44; 95% CI, 1.04-1.99; P = .001), a 17% greater risk of ever allergic dermatitis in children (OR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.04-1.32; P = .008), and a 34% greater risk of ever or current allergic dermatitis in infants up to 2 years of age (OR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.08-1.68; P = .009). Risks of allergic rhinitis were not associated with birth weight. CONCLUSIONS: The results of these meta-analyses suggest that intrauterine growth restriction protects against allergic diseases in human subjects consistent with preclinical evidence but that effects might differ between allergic diseases. The strongest evidence is available for infancy and early childhood, and additional studies in older children and adults are needed to determine whether the effects of prenatal growth on each allergic disease persist or differ between those with severe and mild phenotypes.

Gut microbiome dysbiosis and increased intestinal permeability in children with islet autoimmunity and type 1 diabetes: A prospective cohort study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: To investigate the longitudinal relationship between the gut microbiome, circulating short chain fatty acids (SCFAs) and intestinal permeability in children with islet autoimmunity or type 1 diabetes and controls. METHODS: We analyzed the gut bacterial microbiome, plasma SCFAs, small intestinal permeability and dietary intake in 47 children with islet autoimmunity or recent-onset type 1 diabetes and in 41 unrelated or sibling controls over a median (range) of 13 (2-34) months follow-up. RESULTS: Children with multiple islet autoantibodies (≥2 IA) or type 1 diabetes had gut microbiome dysbiosis. Anti-inflammatory Prevotella and Butyricimonas genera were less abundant and these changes were not explained by differences in diet. Small intestinal permeability measured by blood lactulose:rhamnose ratio was higher in type 1 diabetes. Children with ≥2 IA who progressed to type 1 diabetes (progressors), compared to those who did not progress, had higher intestinal permeability (mean [SE] difference +5.14 [2.0], 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.21, 9.07, P = .006), lower within-sample (alpha) microbial diversity (31.3 [11.2], 95% CI 9.3, 53.3, P = .005), and lower abundance of SCFA-producing bacteria. Alpha diversity (observed richness) correlated with plasma acetate levels in all groups combined (regression coefficient [SE] 0.57 [0.21], 95% CI 0.15, 0.99 P = .008). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Children with ≥2 IA who progress to diabetes, like those with recent-onset diabetes, have gut microbiome dysbiosis associated with increased intestinal permeability. Interventions that expand gut microbial diversity, in particular SCFA-producing bacteria, may have a role to decrease progression to diabetes in children at-risk.

Distinct Gut Virome Profile of Pregnant Women With Type 1 Diabetes in the ENDIA Study.

BACKGROUND: The importance of gut bacteria in human physiology, immune regulation, and disease pathogenesis is well established. In contrast, the composition and dynamics of the gut virome are largely unknown; particularly lacking are studies in pregnancy. We used comprehensive virome capture sequencing to characterize the gut virome of pregnant women with and without type 1 diabetes (T1D), longitudinally followed in the Environmental Determinants of Islet Autoimmunity study. METHODS: In total, 61 pregnant women (35 with T1D and 26 without) from Australia were examined. Nucleic acid was extracted from serial fecal specimens obtained at prenatal visits, and viral genomes were sequenced by virome capture enrichment. The frequency, richness, and abundance of viruses were compared between women with and without T1D. RESULTS: Two viruses were more prevalent in pregnant women with T1D: picobirnaviruses (odds ratio [OR], 4.2; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.0-17.1; P = .046) and tobamoviruses (OR, 3.2; 95% CI, 1.1-9.3; P = .037). The abundance of 77 viruses significantly differed between the 2 maternal groups (≥2-fold difference; P < .02), including 8 Enterovirus B types present at a higher abundance in women with T1D. CONCLUSIONS: These findings provide novel insight into the composition of the gut virome during pregnancy and demonstrate a distinct profile of viruses in women with T1D.

Beta cell function in type 1 diabetes determined from clinical and fasting biochemical variables.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Beta cell function in type 1 diabetes is commonly assessed as the average plasma C-peptide concentration over 2 h following a mixed-meal test (CPAVE). Monitoring of disease progression and response to disease-modifying therapy would benefit from a simpler, more convenient and less costly measure. Therefore, we determined whether CPAVE could be reliably estimated from routine clinical variables. METHODS: Clinical and fasting biochemical data from eight randomised therapy trials involving participants with recently diagnosed type 1 diabetes were used to develop and validate linear models to estimate CPAVE and to test their accuracy in estimating loss of beta cell function and response to immune therapy. RESULTS: A model based on disease duration, BMI, insulin dose, HbA1c, fasting plasma C-peptide and fasting plasma glucose most accurately estimated loss of beta cell function (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC] 0.89 [95% CI 0.87, 0.92]) and was superior to the commonly used insulin-dose-adjusted HbA1c (IDAA1c) measure (AUROC 0.72 [95% CI 0.68, 0.76]). Model-estimated CPAVE (CPEST) reliably identified treatment effects in randomised trials. CPEST, compared with CPAVE, required only a modest (up to 17%) increase in sample size for equivalent statistical power. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: CPEST, approximated from six variables at a single time point, accurately identifies loss of beta cell function in type 1 diabetes and is comparable to CPAVE for identifying treatment effects. CPEST could serve as a convenient and economical measure of beta cell function in the clinic and as a primary outcome measure in trials of disease-modifying therapy in type 1 diabetes.

Early atherosclerosis is associated with retinal microvascular changes in adolescents with type 1 diabetes.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE: Adolescents with type 1 diabetes have early macrovascular changes (increased intima-media thickness [IMT]) and early retinal changes that predict clinical disease in adulthood. We hypothesized that early changes in the macrovascular and retinal microvascular beds develop in parallel before retinopathy develops. We therefore aimed to investigate the relationship between changes in atherosclerosis (carotid and aortic IMT) and retinal vascular geometry cross-sectionally and longitudinally in adolescents with type 1 diabetes. METHODS: Ninety adolescents with type 1 diabetes (41 boys, aged 13.6 ± 3.5 years) who were enrolled in a randomized controlled trial had evaluations at baseline; 41 randomized to placebo were also investigated at 12 months for carotid and aortic IMT using ultrasound and retinal vascular geometry was measured from retinal photographs. RESULTS: There were significant associations between thicker mean/maximum carotid IMT and wider retinal arteriolar and venular calibers; for every 0.1 mm increase in mean carotid IMT, retinal arteriolar caliber increased by 7.90 µm (95% confidence interval [CI] 4.50, 11.30, P < 0.0001) and venular caliber by 9.61 µm (95% CI 4.16, 15.06, P = 0.0008). Increased mean aortic IMT was associated with increased arteriolar tortuosity (2.61, 95% CI 0.50, 4.71, P = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: The early changes of atherosclerosis are associated with retinal microvascular changes in adolescents with type 1 diabetes. This supports parallel adverse changes in the macro and microvascular circulations from early adolescence in type 1 diabetes, and highlights the importance of early intervention.