Matched-pair long-term survival analysis of male and female patients with breast cancer: a population-based study.

Background: Previous studies found that the long-term survival of male breast cancer patients differed from those of female patients, however, the conclusions were contradictory. We conducted the study to examine the sex disparity in breast cancer survival by carefully controlling demographic and clinical factors using data from the Shanghai Cancer Registry (SCR). Methods: Every male breast cancer patient was matched with four female patients by the diagnosis year, age, stage, and histology. We used Kaplan-Meier survival estimates to calculate the cumulative observed overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) rates and log-rank tests to compare the survival rates by sex. We used Cox proportional-hazards regression models to assess the association between sex and risk of death. Results: A total of 50,958 patients with breast cancer (0.85% male) were registered in the SCR between 2002 and 2013. After matching, 434 male and 1,736 female patients were included in the study. With a median follow-up of 10 years, men with breast cancer showed worse OS (P<0.001) and CSS (P<0.001) than did women. The 5- and 10-year OS rates for male and female patients were 67.27% and 77.75%, and 45.95% and 62.60%, respectively; the 5- and 10-year CSS rates for male and female patients were 70.19% and 79.79%, and 50.57% and 67.20%, respectively. Compared with women, men had 65% increased risk of overall death [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.42-1.92] and 70% increased risk of cancer-specific death (95% CI: 1.44-2.00). Conclusions: This study found male patients with breast cancer had poorer long-term survival than women in China.

A novel colorectal cancer screening framework with feature interpretability to identify high-risk populations for colonoscopy.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Risk assessment is of paramount importance for the detection and treatment of colorectal cancer. We developed and validated a feature interpretability screening framework to identify high-risk populations and recommend colonoscopy for them. METHODS: We utilized a training cohort consisting of 1 252 605 participants who underwent colonoscopies in Shanghai from 2013 to 2015 to develop the screening framework. We incorporated Shapley additive explanation values into feature selection to provide interpretability for the framework. Two sampling methods were separately employed to mitigate potential model bias caused by class imbalance. Furthermore, we employed various machine learning algorithms to construct risk assessment models and compared their performance. We tested the screening models on an external validation cohort of 359 462 samples and conducted comprehensive evaluation and statistical analysis of the validation results. RESULTS: The external validation results demonstrated that the models in the proposed framework achieved sensitivity over 0.734, specificity over 0.790, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ranging from 0.808 to 0.859. In the predictions of the best-performing model, the prevalence rates of colorectal cancer were 0.059% and 1.056% in the low- and high-risk groups, respectively. If colonoscopies were performed only on the high-risk group predicted by the model, only 14.36% of total colonoscopies would be needed to detect 74.86% of colorectal cancer cases. CONCLUSIONS: We developed and validated a novel framework to identify populations at high risk for colorectal cancer. Those classified as high risk should undergo colonoscopy for further diagnosis.

Global metabolomics revealed deviations from the metabolic aging clock in colorectal cancer patients.

Background: Markers of aging hold promise in the context of colorectal cancer (CRC) care. Utilizing high-resolution metabolomic profiling, we can unveil distinctive age-related patterns that have the potential to predict early CRC development. Our study aims to unearth a panel of aging markers and delve into the metabolomic alterations associated with aging and CRC. Methods: We assembled a serum cohort comprising 5,649 individuals, consisting of 3,002 healthy volunteers, 715 patients diagnosed with colorectal advanced precancerous lesions (APL), and 1,932 CRC patients, to perform a comprehensive metabolomic analysis. Results: We successfully identified unique age-associated patterns across 42 metabolic pathways. Moreover, we established a metabolic aging clock, comprising 9 key metabolites, using an elastic net regularized regression model that accurately estimates chronological age. Notably, we observed significant chronological disparities among the healthy population, APL patients, and CRC patients. By combining the analysis of circulative carcinoembryonic antigen levels with the categorization of individuals into the "hypo" metabolic aging subgroup, our blood test demonstrates the ability to detect APL and CRC with positive predictive values of 68.4% (64.3%, 72.2%) and 21.4% (17.8%, 25.9%), respectively. Conclusions: This innovative approach utilizing our metabolic aging clock holds significant promise for accurately assessing biological age and enhancing our capacity to detect APL and CRC.

Pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality trends in urban Shanghai, China from 1973 to 2017: a joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analysis.

Background and purpose: To provide a comprehensive overview of epidemiological features and temporal trends of pancreatic cancer in urban Shanghai from 1973 to 2017. Methods: Data on pancreatic cancer in urban Shanghai were obtained through the Shanghai Cancer Registry and the Vital Statistics System. Joinpoint analysis was used to describe the temporal trends and annual percent changes (APCs) and age-period-cohort analysis were used to estimate the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on pancreatic cancer. Results: There were a total of 29,253 cases and 27,105 deaths of pancreatic cancer in urban Shanghai over the 45-year study period. The overall average annual age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were 5.45/100,000 and 5.02/100,000, respectively. Both the incidence and mortality rates demonstrated fluctuating upward trends, with an average annual increase rate of 1.51% (APC = 1.51, P < 0.001) and 1.04% (APC = 1.04, P < 0.001), respectively. The upward trend in incidence was greater for females than for males, while the trend in mortality was seen in both sexes equally and continuously. In recent years (2013-2017), the age-specific incidence rates increased further than before, with statistically significant changes in the 35-year, 45- to 55-year and 70- to 85-year age groups (P < 0.05). The age-specific mortality rates also showed obvious upward trends, which in the 50- to 55-year, and 75- to 85-year age groups increased significantly. The results of the age-period-cohort analysis suggested significant effects of age, period, and cohort on the prevalence of pancreatic cancer. Conclusion: The prevalence of pancreatic cancer, dramatically influenced by socioeconomic development and lifestyles, demonstrated a significant upward trend from 1973 to 2017 in urban Shanghai and underscored the necessity and urgency for additional efforts in primary and secondary prevention measures.

Diagnostic accuracy of risk assessment and fecal immunochemical test in colorectal cancer screening: Results from a population-based program and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Fecal immunochemical test (FIT) is a commonly used initial test for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. Parallel use of FIT with risk assessment (RA) could improve the detection of non-bleeding lesions, but at the expense of compromising sensitivity. In this study, we evaluated the accuracy of FIT and/or RA in the Shanghai CRC screening program, and systematically reviewed the relevant evaluations worldwide. METHODS: RA and 2-specimen FIT were used in parallel in the Shanghai screening program, followed by a colonoscopy among those with positive results. Sensitivity, specificity, detection rate of CRC, positive predictive value (PPV), and other measures with their 95% confident intervals were calculated for each type of tests and several assumed combined tests. We further searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library for relevant studies published in English up to January 5, 2022. RESULTS: By the end of 2019, a total of 1,901,360 participants of the screening program completed 3,045,108 tests, with 1,901,360 first-time tests and 1,143,748 subsequent tests. Parallel use of RA and 2-specimen FIT achieved a sensitivity of 0.78 (0.77-0.80), a specificity of 0.78 (0.78-0.78), PPV of 0.89% (0.86-0.92), and a detection rate of 1.99 (1.93-2.05) for CRC per 1000 among participants enrolled in the first screening round, and performed similarly among those who participated for several times. A meta-analysis of 103 published observational studies demonstrated a higher sensitivity [0.76 (0.36, 0.94)] but a much lower specificity [0.59 (0.28, 0.85)] of parallel use of RA and FIT for detecting CRC in average-risk populations than in our subjects. One-specimen FIT, the most commonly used initial test, had a pooled specificity comparable to the Shanghai screening program (0.92 vs. 0.91), but a much higher pooled sensitivity (0.76 vs. 0.57). CONCLUSION: Our results indicate the limitation of FIT only as an initial screening test for CRC in Chinese populations, and highlight the higher sensitivity of parallel use of RA and FIT. Attempts should be made to optimize RA to improve effectiveness of screening in the populations.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of a community-based colorectal cancer screening program in Shanghai, China.

Background: Since 2011, through the Community-Based Colorectal Cancer Screening Program in Shanghai, China (SHcsp), residents aged >50 years were offered initial colorectal cancer screening using the fecal immunochemical test (FIT) and risk assessment questionnaire (RAQ) for free. Colonoscopy was then recommended for positive results. Objective: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the Community-Based Colorectal Cancer Screening Program in Shanghai, China from the payer perspective. Methods: This analysis estimated the long-term cost and effectiveness of the 2014-2016 SHcsp based on real-world follow-up data from the SHcsp database, Shanghai Cancer Registry System, vital statistics from Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention and inpatient CRC expense data from hospitals. A decision-tree model and Markov model were constructed to simulate the 25-year health outcomes. The screening branch was the cohort with a definite diagnosis of adenoma, advanced adenoma, and CRC. The other branch was residents who were neither screened nor treated until CRC symptoms appeared. A payer prospective was adopted to measure direct costs and effectiveness by life years (LYs) and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained, and were discounted by 3%. Stimulation robustness was tested by one-way sensitivity analysis. Results: Of 1,097,656 residents, 13,250 were diagnosed with adenoma, advanced adenoma, or CRC. Assuming those had not been found through screening, SHcsp resulted in 1,570.1 LYs and 13,984.3 QALYs gained at an extra cost of USD9.96 million. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was USD6,342.02 per LY and USD712.08 per QALY obtained, far below the threshold of USD59,598 of three-time GDP per capita in Shanghai. Conclusion: The SHcsp was cost-effective than no screening strategy. The results were generalisable to the Chinese population for mass CRC screening.

Risk Scoring Systems for Predicting the Presence of Colorectal Neoplasia by Fecal Immunochemical Test Results in Chinese Population.

INTRODUCTION: Adherence to colonoscopy screening for colorectal cancer (CRC) is low in general populations, including those tested positive in the fecal immunochemical test (FIT). Developing tailored risk scoring systems by FIT results may allow for more accurate identification of individuals for colonoscopy. METHODS: Among 807,109 participants who completed the primary tests in the first-round Shanghai CRC screening program, 71,023 attended recommended colonoscopy. Predictors for colorectal neoplasia were used to develop respective scoring systems for FIT-positive or FIT-negative populations using logistic regression and artificial neural network methods. RESULTS: Age, sex, area of residence, history of mucus or bloody stool, and CRC in first-degree relatives were identified as predictors for CRC in FIT-positive subjects, while a history of chronic diarrhea and prior cancer were additionally included for FIT-negative subjects. With an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of more than 0.800 in predicting CRC, the logistic regression-based systems outperformed the artificial neural network-based ones and had a sensitivity of 68.9%, a specificity of 82.6%, and a detection rate of 0.24% by identifying 17.6% subjects at high risk. We also reported an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of about 0.660 for the systems predicting CRC and adenoma, with a sensitivity of 57.8%, a specificity of 64.6%, and a detection rate of 6.87% through classifying 38.1% subjects as high-risk individuals. The performance of the scoring systems for CRC was superior to the currently used method in Mainland, China, and comparable with the scoring systems incorporating the FIT results. DISCUSSION: The tailored risk scoring systems may better identify high-risk individuals of colorectal neoplasia and facilitate colonoscopy follow-up. External validation is warranted for widespread use of the scoring systems.

Improved risk scoring systems for colorectal cancer screening in Shanghai, China.

BACKGROUND: An optimal risk-scoring system enables more targeted offers for colonoscopy in colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. This analysis aims to develop and validate scoring systems using parametric and non-parametric methods for average-risk populations. METHODS: Screening data of 807,695 subjects and 2806 detected cases in the first-round CRC screening program in Shanghai were used to develop risk-predictive models and scoring systems using logistic-regression (LR) and artificial-neural-network (ANN) methods. Performance of established scoring systems was evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration, sensitivity, specificity, number of high-risk individuals and potential detection rates of CRC. RESULTS: Age, sex, CRC in first-degree relatives, chronic diarrhoea, mucus or bloody stool, history of any cancer and faecal-immunochemical-test (FIT) results were identified as predictors for the presence of CRC. The AUC of LR-based system was 0.642 when using risk factors only in derivation set, and increased to 0.774 by further incorporating one-sample FIT results, and to 0.808 by including two-sample FIT results, while those for ANN-based systems were 0.639, 0.763 and 0.805, respectively. Better calibrations were observed for the LR-based systems than the ANN-based ones. Compared with the currently used initial tests, parallel use of FIT with LR-based systems resulted in improved specificities, less demands for colonoscopy and higher detection rates of CRC, while parallel use of FIT with ANN-based systems had higher sensitivities; incorporating FIT in the scoring systems further increased specificities, decreased colonoscopy demands and improved detection rates of CRC. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate the potentials of LR-based scoring systems incorporating one- or two-sample FIT results for CRC mass screening. External validation is warranted for scaling-up implementation in the Chinese population.

Adherence to colonoscopy in cascade screening of colorectal cancer: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: This study aims to systematically evaluate adherence to colonoscopy and related factors in cascade screening of colorectal cancer (CRC) among average-risk populations, which is crucial to achieve the effectiveness of CRC screening. METHODS: We searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library for studies published in English up to October 16, 2020, and reporting the adherence to colonoscopy following positive results of initial screening tests. A random-effects meta-analysis was applied to estimate pooled adherence and 95% confidence intervals. Subgroup analysis and mixed-effects meta-regression analysis were performed to evaluate heterogeneous factors for adherence level. RESULTS: A total of 245 observational and 97 experimental studies were included and generated a pooled adherence to colonoscopy of 76.6% (95% confidence interval: 74.1-78.9) and 80.4% (95% confidence interval: 77.2-83.1), respectively. The adherence varied substantially by calendar year of screening, continents, CRC incidence, socioeconomic status, recruitment methods, and type of initial screening tests, with the initial tests as the most modifiable heterogeneous factor for adherence across both observational (Q = 162.6, P < 0.001) and experimental studies (Q = 23.2, P < 0.001). The adherence to colonoscopy was at the highest level when using flexible sigmoidoscopy as an initial test, followed by using guaiac fecal occult blood test, quantitative or qualitative fecal immunochemical test, and risk assessment. The pooled estimate of adherence was positively associated with specificity and positive predictive value of initial screening tests, but negatively with sensitivity and positivity rate. CONCLUSIONS: Colonoscopy adherence is at a low level and differs by study-level characteristics of programs and populations. Initial screening tests with high specificity or positive predictive value may be followed by a high adherence to colonoscopy.

Interaction of two functional genetic variants LOXL1 rs1048661 and VEGFA rs3025039 on the risk of age-related macular degeneration in Chinese women.

BACKGROUND: Cumulative evidence indicates that LOXL1 and VEGF-a play important roles in extracellular matrix formation and angiogenesis, respectively. The disorder of extracellular matrix and angiogenesis are the key factors of pathogenesis of age-related macular degeneration (AMD). We hypothesized that rs1048661 (T>G) in the LOXL1 gene and rs3025039 (C>T) in the VEGFA gene might be associated with risk of AMD. METHODS: A total of 533 unrelated Chinese subjects, 286 cases (247 with early AMD and 39 with late neovascular AMD) and 247 controls, were included in the study. The gene sequences of LOXL1 rs1048661 and VEGFA rs3025039 were amplified by polymerase chain reaction and genotyped. Interaction between rs1048661 and rs3025039 on AMD risk was also assessed. RESULTS: LOXL1 rs1048661 but not VEGFA rs3025039 was associated with a significantly increased risk of AMD. The adjusted odds ratio was 1.6 (95% CI, 1.1-2.5) for rs1048661 TT + GT genotype compared with GG homozygotes in the dominant model analysis. Moreover, there was a significant gene-gene interaction between these two polymorphic loci. In VEGFA rs3025039 CC + CT genotype which indicated sufficient expression of VEGF-a, LOXL1 rs1048661 had odds ratios of 1.7 (95% CI, 1.1-2.7) for early AMD and 3.6 (95% CI, 1.1-12.3) for late neovascular AMD in the dominant model analysis. However, LOXL1 rs1048661 did not confer the risk of AMD in subjects harboring VEGFA rs3025039 TT genotype which indicated decreased expression of VEGF-a. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that LOXL1 rs1048661 (T>G) may be involved in the risk of AMD. In addition, LOXL1 rs1048661 and VEGFA rs3025039 interacted to confer the development of AMD, especially for late-stage neovascular AMD. Our data need to be further validated.

Physically active individuals have a 23% lower risk of any colorectal neoplasia and a 27% lower risk of advanced colorectal neoplasia than their non-active counterparts: systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have examined the associations between physical activity (PA), sedentary behaviour (SB) and risk of colorectal neoplasia (CN). METHODS: We systematically searched Medline, Embase, PsyInfo, Cochrane and other sources from their inception to 30 September 2018 for cohort, case-control and cross-sectional studies that evaluated these associations in asymptomatic, average-risk subjects. Random-effect models were used to estimate relative risks (RRs) of any-type CN, advanced CN, and non-advanced CN, respectively, in individuals with the highest versus the lowest level of PA and SB. Dose-response analyses and subgroup analyses were conducted. The I2 statistic was used to examine heterogeneity among studies. RESULTS: We identified 32 observational studies, including 17 cross-sectional studies, 10 case-control studies and five longitudinal studies. PA (highest vs lowest) was inversely associated with risk for any-type CN (n=23 studies) and advanced CN (n=15 studies), with a RR of 0.77 (95% CI=0.71 to 0.83, I2=57.5%) and 0.73 (95% CI=0.63 to 0.82, I2=45.5%), respectively. There was no association between PA and non-advanced CN (n=5 studies). There was an as association between PA and any-type CN in both sexes, and also for the distal colon. We found no dose-response relationship between PA and any-type or advanced CN. Based on three studies identified, SB time (longest vs shortest) was associated with an increased risk of advanced CN (RR=1.24, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.49, I2=14.4%). No publication bias was detected by Begg's test. CONCLUSION: We report a 23% lower relative risk of any type of CN and a 27% lower risk of advanced CN in people with the highest level of PA compared with those in the lowest.

The Implementation and First-Round Results of a Community-Based Colorectal Cancer Screening Program in Shanghai, China.

BACKGROUND: The incidence and mortality rate of colorectal cancer (CRC) have increased dramatically over the past 3 decades in China due to changes in lifestyle factors. Early detection and treatment guidelines for asymptomatic cases have shown to improve CRC control in developed countries. In response to these challenges, the Shanghai Municipal Government launched a community-based CRC screening program in 2012. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Free initial screening, inclusive of immunochemical fecal occult blood and risk assessment (questionnaire), was provided by community health centers in Shanghai. Participants with positive results were referred to a specialist for a colonoscopy. RESULTS: In 2013, 828,302 Shanghai residents were registered; 97.7% (809,528) of the registrants completed initial screening. Among 180,094 initial screening-positive participants, 71,733 underwent colonoscopy. The proportion of compliance to colonoscopy was 39.8%; the proportion decreased with age and educational level. A total of 6,668 adenomas were detected, and 1,630 CRC cases were diagnosed. The CRC detection rate of the program was 201.35/100,000; among the detected CRCs, 51.6% were in stage 0-I. CONCLUSION: The screening program achieved great progress, especially on initial screening completion and CRC early stage rate, although particular intervention is still needed to improve the compliance of colonoscopy. IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: Due to socioeconomic transitions and lifestyle changes, colorectal cancer is now becoming one of the most common cancers in developing countries, as it is in developed countries. While most developed countries have now initiated national colorectal cancer screening programs based on recommended country-specific colorectal cancer screening guidelines, colonoscopy has become the most commonly used screening method. This is a challenge in developing countries due to limited resources. Based on the analysis of the Shanghai colorectal cancer screening program, with immunological fecal occult blood test and risk assessment as initial screening, followed by a diagnostic testing of colonoscopy for individuals with positive results, this article provides the basis and suggestion for similar program in other regions of China and other developing countries.

[Incidence trend of malignant tumors in children in Shanghai].

OBJECTIVE: To understand the incidence trend of malignant tumors in children aged <15 years in Shanghai. METHODS: The <15 years old children diagnosed with cancer in Shanghai between 2009 and 2011 were included in this study. The types of malignant tumors were classified according to International Classification of Childhood Cancer, Version 3 (ICCC-3). The gender and age specific incidences of malignant tumors were analyzed. Software Joinpoint was used to calculate the annual percentage of childhood cancer cases. RESULTS: A total of 460 cases of childhood cancer were diagnosed in Shanghai during 2009-2011, accounting for 0.3% of total cancer cases. The crude incidence was 129.0 per million and the age standardized rate (ASR) was 129.6 per million. The ASR was higher in boys (142.1 per million) than in girls (116.4 per million). The boy to girl ratio was 1.2(95%CI: 1.0-1.5). The incidence was highest in age group <5 years (165.1 per million). The incidences in age groups 5-9 years and 10-14 years were 101.2 per million and 113.9 per million, respectively. Leukemia was the most common cancer in children (n=165, 35.9%, ASR: 47.0 per million), followed by central nervous system tumors (n=91, 19.8%, ASR: 25.6 per million) and lymphomas (n=45, 9.8%, ASR: 12.6 per million). The age and gender specific incidence of malignant tumors and the type specific incidence of malignant tumors in children in Shanghai had no significant changes during the study period. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of malignant tumors was higher in boys than in girls in Shanghai. Leukemia, central nervous system tumors and lymphomas were the three most common cancers in children. The overall incidence of malignant tumors in children in Shanghai had no significant changes during 2002-2011.

Fecal Microbiota Characteristics of Patients with Colorectal Adenoma Detected by Screening: A Population-based Study.

BACKGROUND: Screening for colorectal cancer (CRC) and precancerous colorectal adenoma (CRA) can detect curable disease. However, participation in colonoscopy and sensitivity of fecal heme for CRA are low. METHODS: Microbiota metrics were determined by Illumina sequencing of 16S rRNA genes amplified from DNA extracted from feces self-collected in RNAlater. Among fecal immunochemical test-positive (FIT +) participants, colonoscopically-defined normal versus CRA patients were compared by regression, permutation, and random forest plus leave-one-out methods. FINDINGS: Of 95 FIT + participants, 61 had successful fecal microbiota profiling and colonoscopy, identifying 24 completely normal patients, 20 CRA patients, 2 CRC patients, and 15 with other conditions. Phylum-level fecal community composition differed significantly between CRA and normal patients (permutation P = 0.02). Rank phylum-level abundance distinguished CRA from normal patients (area under the curve = 0.767, permutation P = 0.006). CRA prevalence was 59% in phylum-level cluster B versus 20% in cluster A (exact P = 0.01). Most of the difference reflected 3-fold higher median relative abundance of Proteobacteria taxa (Wilcoxon signed-rank P = 0.03, positive predictive value = 67%). Antibiotic exposure and other potential confounders did not affect the associations. INTERPRETATION: If confirmed in larger, more diverse populations, fecal microbiota analysis might be employed to improve screening for CRA and ultimately to reduce mortality from CRC.

[Long-term survival analysis of different breast cancer molecular subtypes: Shanghai Breast Cancer Survival Study].

OBJECTIVES: To analyze the survival of breast cancer molecular subtypes and to examine the effect of therapy on the long-term prognosis of different subtypes. METHODS: This study included 3 586 breast cancer patients with estrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PR) and human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 (HER2) information in Shanghai Breast Cancer Survival Study, a population-based prospective cohort study established in 2002. Molecular subtypes, based on immunohistochemistry were categorized as follows: Luminal A, Luminal B, HER2, and triple-negative subtype. Characteristics and clinical data were collected through questionnaires and medical records at baseline survey and sequential follow-up surveys. Survival rates of different molecular subtypes were analyzed and compared with Log-rank tests. Multiple Cox regression models were used to evaluate the effect of therapy on long-term prognosis of different molecular subtypes. RESULTS: Among the 3 586 cases, Luminal A, Luminal B, HER2 and triple-negative breast cancer subtypes accounted for 54.5%, 16.6%, 13.9%, and 14.9%, respectively. With a median follow-up of 10.3 years (ranging 0.6 to 12.8 years), the 10-year overall survival (OS) rates for the four subtypes were 82.7% (95% CI: 80.9% to 84.4%), 77.7% (95% CI: 74.1% to 80.8%), 76.3% (95% CI: 72.3% to 79.8%), and 74.8% (95% CI: 70.9% to 78.3%), respectively. The 10-year disease to free survival (DFS) rates were 79.0% (95% CI: 76.7% to 81.0%), 76.0% (95% CI: 71.9% to 79.5%), 73.6% (95% CI: 68.9% to 77.7%), and 74.5% (95% CI: 69.4% to 78.9%), respectively. Significant difference in survival among four subtypes was observed (Log-rank test, P<0.01). Multivariate Cox regression indicated that hormonal therapy can significantly reduce the long-term risk of total mortality and recurrence breast cancer specific mortality among Luminal A subtype patients. Adjuvant chemotherapy could improve the long-term prognosis of triple-negative breast cancer. No benefit from radiotherapy was observed for four subtypes of breast cancer in terms of long-term prognosis. CONCLUSIONS: Molecular subtypes based on ER/PR/HER2 could provide important information to predict breast cancer prognosis. The hormonal status was an important basis for individualized therapy and precision medicine.

[Recent incidences and trends of childhood malignant solid tumors in Shanghai, 2002-2010].

OBJECTIVE: To examine the recent incidences and trends of childhood malignant solid tumors in Shanghai. METHOD: Data from the population-based Shanghai Cancer Registry and related retrospective survey were used to analyze the patterns of incidence and trends of malignant solid tumors diagnosed between 2002 and 2010 in children aged 0-14 years. The distributions of incidences were described according to gender, age and cancer types which were classified according to International Classification of Childhood Cancer (ICCC). Annual age-standardized rates (ASRs) were adjusted by the world standard population. Approximate confidence intervals for standardized rate ratios (SRR) based Poisson distribution test-based methods were used to assess changes in incidence over the period 2002 - 2006 and 2007 - 2010. RESULT: (1)A total of 868 cases of childhood malignant solid tumors were diagnosed in Shanghai during 2002 - 2010, accounting for 65.8% of all childhood cancers. The ASR of 2002 - 2010 was 80.2 per million for all solid tumors. (2) The ASR was higher in boys (86.3 per million) than in girls (73.8 per million) with SRR 1.2 (95%CI 1.0 - 1.3). Incidence rate was the highest in the first five years of life with 93.4 per million. The age-specific incidence rates in 5 - 9 and 10 - 14 age groups were 65.2 and 79.3 per million, respectively. (3) CNS tumors, lymphomas, germ cell tumors, neuroblastoma, and soft tissue sarcomas were the top 5 most common solid tumors in children, with the incidence rate of 23.8, 11.0, 7.8, 7.7 and 6.8 per million, respectively. The patterns of subgroups varied in different age groups. Blastomas, such as neuroblastoma, retinoblastoma, were more common in the children aged 0 - 4 years, whereas epithelial carcinomas and bone tumors developed more frequently in elder children aged 10 - 14 years. (4) Compared with the ASR in 2002 - 2006, the ASR for both genders in 2007 - 2010 had no substantial changes (78.7 per million in 2002 - 2006 and 82.9 per million in 2007 - 2010). However, among boys, the incidence rate in 2007 - 2010 was significantly higher than that in 2002 - 2006 with SRR 1.2 (95%CI: 1.0 - 1.4). For specific subgroups of cancer, there were no substantial changes. Some cautions should be taken when interpreting results involving a small number of cases per year and those with wide 95% confidence intervals. CONCLUSION: The incidence rate of pediatric malignant solid tumors among males was higher than females during 2002 - 2010, and it differed among different age groups with the highest in the first five years of life. CNS tumor was the most common type of solid tumors in children. This was a unique characteristics comparing with adult reflected in disease spectrum and age of onset. The patterns of incidence and its trends for childhood malignant solid tumors in Shanghai could provide a basis for etiologic research and preventive interventions. The findings also suggest an urgent need for longer population-based surveillance to verify the pattern and changing trends.

Population-based survival for childhood cancer patients diagnosed during 2002-2005 in Shanghai, China.

BACKGROUND: There have been no population-based studies on cancer survival among children aged 0-14 years in China. In this study, we aimed to characterize the cancer survival among children in Shanghai. PROCEDURE: Childhood cancer cases registered by the Shanghai Cancer Registry between 2002 and 2005 and enrolled in the Shanghai Childhood Survival Study were included in this study. We used Kaplan-Meier product-limit method for survival analysis and Cox proportional hazards models for investigating the effects of various prognostic factors. RESULTS: The median follow-up time was 5.4 years (range 0-8.9 years). The 5-year observed survival for all childhood cancers combined was 55.7% (95% CI: 51.7-59.6%). For leukemia, lymphoma, and central nervous system tumors, the three most common types of childhood cancer, 5-year survival rates were 52.2%, 58.8%, and 41.2%, respectively. Higher 5-year survival rates were observed for epithelial cancer (88.9%), malignant renal tumors (86.7%), germ cell and other gonadal tumors (78.4%), and retinoblastoma (75.0%). Cancers with poor prognosis included sympathetic nervous system tumors (57.9%), soft tissue sarcoma (54.1%), bone tumors (52.6%), and liver cancer (33.3%). There were no significant differences between survival rates by gender and age groups. Compared with those reported in the USA and Europe, the survival rates for all cancers combined and the three most common types in Shanghai were lower. CONCLUSIONS: The survival rate for children aged 0-14 diagnosed with cancer in Shanghai during 2002-2005 was at the medium level. There was a substantial survival difference from childhood cancers between Shanghai and specific developed countries.

[Estimates and prediction of prostate cancer incidence, mortality and prevalence in China, 2008].

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the incidence, mortality and 5-year prevalence of prostate cancer in China, in 2008. METHODS: Data from 36 cancer registries and the Third National Death Survey in China (2004-2005) was used to estimate the incidence, mortality and 5-year prevalence rates of prostate cancer in China in 2008. Mathematical models were used to predict the incidence and mortality of prostate cancer in the next 20 years. RESULTS: In 2008, the incidence of prostate cancer was 33 802 (2.1%), with the incidence rate as 4.3/100 000, which ranked the eighth among all the male cancers. Mortality of prostate cancer in China was 14 297 (1.2%) with the mortality rate of 1.8/100 000, which ranked eleventh among all the male cancers. The 5-year prevalence rate of prostate cancer in China was 75 535 (3.5%) with the proportion of 13.8/100 000, ranking the seventh among all the male cancers. The incidence and mortality of prostate cancer in men before the age of 60 maintained at a low level, but rose rapidly after the age of 60. Data on prediction showed that the incidence and mortality of prostate cancer in China would gradually increase in the next 20 years. CONCLUSION: Both incidence and mortality of prostate cancer in China would keep increasing in the future. Prevention and control programs for prostate cancer should be strengthened.