Predicting Patient Deterioration: A Review of Tools in the Digital Hospital Setting.

BACKGROUND: Early warning tools identify patients at risk of deterioration in hospitals. Electronic medical records in hospitals offer real-time data and the opportunity to automate early warning tools and provide real-time, dynamic risk estimates. OBJECTIVE: This review describes published studies on the development, validation, and implementation of tools for predicting patient deterioration in general wards in hospitals. METHODS: An electronic database search of peer reviewed journal papers from 2008-2020 identified studies reporting the use of tools and algorithms for predicting patient deterioration, defined by unplanned transfer to the intensive care unit, cardiac arrest, or death. Studies conducted solely in intensive care units, emergency departments, or single diagnosis patient groups were excluded. RESULTS: A total of 46 publications were eligible for inclusion. These publications were heterogeneous in design, setting, and outcome measures. Most studies were retrospective studies using cohort data to develop, validate, or statistically evaluate prediction tools. The tools consisted of early warning, screening, or scoring systems based on physiologic data, as well as more complex algorithms developed to better represent real-time data, deal with complexities of longitudinal data, and warn of deterioration risk earlier. Only a few studies detailed the results of the implementation of deterioration warning tools. CONCLUSIONS: Despite relative progress in the development of algorithms to predict patient deterioration, the literature has not shown that the deployment or implementation of such algorithms is reproducibly associated with improvements in patient outcomes. Further work is needed to realize the potential of automated predictions and update dynamic risk estimates as part of an operational early warning system for inpatient deterioration.

The National Emergency Access Target (NEAT) and the 4-hour rule: time to review the target.

OBJECTIVE: We explored the relationship between the National Emergency Access Target (NEAT) compliance rate, defined as the proportion of patients admitted or discharged from emergency departments (EDs) within 4 hours of presentation, and the risk-adjusted in-hospital mortality of patients admitted to hospital acutely from EDs. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Retrospective observational study of all de-identified episodes of care involving patients who presented acutely to the EDs of 59 Australian hospitals between 1 July 2010 and 30 June 2014. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: The relationship between the risk-adjusted mortality of inpatients admitted acutely from EDs (the emergency hospital standardised mortality ratio [eHSMR]: the ratio of the numbers of observed to expected deaths) and NEAT compliance rates for all presenting patients (total NEAT) and admitted patients (admitted NEAT). RESULTS: ED and inpatient data were aggregated for 12.5 million ED episodes of care and 11.6 million inpatient episodes of care. A highly significant (P < 0.001) linear, inverse relationship between eHSMR and each of total and admitted NEAT compliance rates was found; eHSMR declined to a nadir of 73 as total and admitted NEAT compliance rates rose to about 83% and 65% respectively. Sensitivity analyses found no confounding by the inclusion of palliative care and/or short-stay patients. CONCLUSION: As NEAT compliance rates increased, in-hospital mortality of emergency admissions declined, although this direct inverse relationship is lost once total and admitted NEAT compliance rates exceed certain levels. This inverse association between NEAT compliance rates and in-hospital mortality should be considered when formulating targets for access to emergency care.

A prediction model for colon cancer surveillance data.

Dynamic prediction models make use of patient-specific longitudinal data to update individualized survival probability predictions based on current and past information. Colonoscopy (COL) and fecal occult blood test (FOBT) results were collected from two Australian surveillance studies on individuals characterized as high-risk based on a personal or family history of colorectal cancer. Motivated by a Poisson process, this paper proposes a generalized nonlinear model with a complementary log-log link as a dynamic prediction tool that produces individualized probabilities for the risk of developing advanced adenoma or colorectal cancer (AAC). This model allows predicted risk to depend on a patient's baseline characteristics and time-dependent covariates. Information on the dates and results of COLs and FOBTs were incorporated using time-dependent covariates that contributed to patient risk of AAC for a specified period following the test result. These covariates serve to update a person's risk as additional COL, and FOBT test information becomes available. Model selection was conducted systematically through the comparison of Akaike information criterion. Goodness-of-fit was assessed with the use of calibration plots to compare the predicted probability of event occurrence with the proportion of events observed. Abnormal COL results were found to significantly increase risk of AAC for 1 year following the test. Positive FOBTs were found to significantly increase the risk of AAC for 3 months following the result. The covariates that incorporated the updated test results were of greater significance and had a larger effect on risk than the baseline variables.

Ideal colonoscopic surveillance intervals to reduce incidence of advanced adenoma and colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: There is limited information about the interplay between multiple risk factors contributing to the risk of advanced neoplasia. We determined the actual risk for advanced neoplasia in relation to lapsed time between colonoscopies in people enrolled in a structured surveillance program. This risk information can be used to guide the selection of optimal surveillance intervals. METHODS: Patients were recruited into programs at two major tertiary hospitals, with a personal or family history of advanced neoplasia. Five thousand one hundred forty-one patients had an index and one or more surveillance colonoscopies. Fifty-one percent had a family history of colorectal neoplasia while the remainder had a personal history. RESULTS: Patients with an immediately prior colonoscopy result (prior result) of advanced adenoma had a risk for advanced neoplasia 7.1 times greater than those with a normal prior result. Cancer as a prior result did not confer a greater risk than either a hyperplastic polyp or a nonadvanced adenoma. Being female reduced risk, age increased risk. Only a family history of a first-degree relative diagnosed under 55, or definite or suspected hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancer (HNPCC) conferred an increased risk over a personal history of advanced neoplasia. CONCLUSIONS: Most family history categories did not confer excess risk above personal history of advanced neoplasia. A prior cancer poses less of a risk than a prior advanced adenoma. Based on our models, a person with an advanced adenoma should be scheduled for colonoscopy at 3 years, corresponding to a 15% risk of advanced neoplasia for a male aged under 56. Guidelines should be updated that uses a 15% risk as a benchmark for calculating surveillance intervals.

A web-based normative data tool for assessing cognitive performance in healthy older Australians.

A decline in cognition greater than expected with ageing and accompanied by subjective cognitive concerns or functional changes may be indicative of a dementing disorder. The capacity to correctly identify cognitive decline relies on comparisons with normative data from a suitably matched healthy reference group with relatively homogeneous demographic features. Formal assessment of cognition is usually performed by specialist neuropsychologists trained in administration and interpretation of psychometric tests. With a scarcity of normative data from large cohorts of older adults, Australian neuropsychologists commonly use representative data from small international studies. Data from 727 healthy older Australians participating in the Australian Imaging, Biomarkers and Lifestyle (AIBL) Flagship Study of Ageing have been used to create a normative dataset. A web-based calculator was developed to simplify the time-consuming process of comparing cognitive performance scores with these representative data.

Structure-activity relationship of butyrate analogues on apoptosis, proliferation and histone deacetylase activity in HCT-116 human colorectal cancer cells.

1. Butyrate, a bacteria fermentative product in the colonic lumen, has been shown to produce a wide variety of biological effects in human cancer cells in vitro. However, there are pharmacological drawbacks associated with the use of butyrate therapy and there are limited published data on the structure-activity relationship of butyrate analogues in colorectal cancer cells. Previously, we determined structure-activity relationship using HT-29 human colorectal cancer cells. However, it was viewed as important to explore similar relationships in another colorectal cancer cell line. 2. Therefore, in the present study, the in vitro structure-activity relationship of butyrate analogues was examined by investigating their effects on apoptosis, cell proliferation, histone deacetylase (HDAC) activity and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) leakage as a measure of cell toxicity in HCT-116 human colorectal cancer cells. 3. Of the 32 analogues tested, only 4-benzoylbutyrate, 3-benzo-ylpropionate, 4-(4-nitrophenyl)butyrate and 3-(4-fluorobenzoyl)propionate exhibited comparable biological effects to butyrate. The common structural properties of the compounds of interest were to lack amino or hydroxyl substitutions at the 2-, 3- and/or 4-position of the aliphatic moiety of butyrate. 4. The present study reveals a dissociation between the induction of apoptosis, inhibition of cell proliferation, HDAC activity and LDH leakage. The results indicate differential responses of butyrate analogues in HT-29 and HCT-116 colorectal cancer cells.

Efficacy of butyrate analogues in HT-29 cancer cells.

1. Butyrate is a well known product of starch fermentation by colonic bacteria and is of interest owing to its ability to induce in vitro apoptosis and cell differentiation, as well as to inhibit cell growth in colorectal and other cancer cells. Synthetic analogues of butyrate may also possess cellular activities in a variety of cultured cells. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the effects of butyrate analogues on apoptosis, proliferation and histone deacetylase (HDAC) activity in HT-29 colorectal cancer cells. In addition, the effects of these analogues on lactate dehydrogenase leakage, as a measure of non-specific cytotoxicity, were evaluated in HT-29 cells. 2. Of the 26 analogues examined, four (propionate, 4-benzoylbutyrate, 4-(4-aminophenyl)butyrate and benzyloxyacetate) exhibited comparable effects to butyrate. Interestingly, no activity was noted for compounds carrying amino, hydroxyl or methyl substitutions at the 2-, 3- or 4-position of the aliphatic moiety of butyrate. 3. In conclusion, chemical changes to the structure of butyrate can significantly modify the biological activity assayed in HT-29 colorectal cancer cells in vitro.