Multiple sclerosis: Exploring the limits and implications of genetic and environmental susceptibility.

OBJECTIVE: To explore and describe the basis and implications of genetic and environmental susceptibility to multiple sclerosis (MS) using the Canadian population-based data. BACKGROUND: Certain parameters of MS-epidemiology are directly observable (e.g., the recurrence-risk of MS in siblings and twins, the proportion of women among MS patients, the population-prevalence of MS, and the time-dependent changes in the sex-ratio). By contrast, other parameters can only be inferred from the observed parameters (e.g., the proportion of the population that is "genetically susceptible", the proportion of women among susceptible individuals, the probability that a susceptible individual will experience an environment "sufficient" to cause MS, and if they do, the probability that they will develop the disease). DESIGN/METHODS: The "genetically susceptible" subset (G) of the population (Z) is defined to include everyone with any non-zero life-time chance of developing MS under some environmental conditions. The value for each observed and non-observed epidemiological parameter is assigned a "plausible" range. Using both a Cross-sectional Model and a Longitudinal Model, together with established parameter relationships, we explore, iteratively, trillions of potential parameter combinations and determine those combinations (i.e., solutions) that fall within the acceptable range for both the observed and non-observed parameters. RESULTS: Both Models and all analyses intersect and converge to demonstrate that probability of genetic-susceptibitly, P(G), is limited to only a fraction of the population {i.e., P(G) ≤ 0.52)} and an even smaller fraction of women {i.e., P(G│F) < 0.32)}. Consequently, most individuals (particularly women) have no chance whatsoever of developing MS, regardless of their environmental exposure. However, for any susceptible individual to develop MS, requires that they also experience a "sufficient" environment. We use the Canadian data to derive, separately, the exponential response-curves for men and women that relate the increasing likelihood of developing MS to an increasing probability that a susceptible individual experiences an environment "sufficient" to cause MS. As the probability of a "sufficient" exposure increases, we define, separately, the limiting probability of developing MS in men (c) and women (d). These Canadian data strongly suggest that: (c < d ≤ 1). If so, this observation establishes both that there must be a "truly" random factor involved in MS pathogenesis and that it is this difference, rather than any difference in genetic or environmental factors, which primarily accounts for the penetrance difference between women and men. CONCLUSIONS: The development of MS (in an individual) requires both that they have an appropriate genotype (which is uncommon in the population) and that they have an environmental exposure "sufficient" to cause MS given their genotype. Nevertheless, the two principal findings of this study are that: P(G) ≤ 0.52)} and: (c < d ≤ 1). Threfore, even when the necessary genetic and environmental factors, "sufficient" for MS pathogenesis, co-occur for an individual, they still may or may not develop MS. Consequently, disease pathogenesis, even in this circumstance, seems to involve an important element of chance. Moreover, the conclusion that the macroscopic process of disease development for MS includes a "truly" random element, if replicated (either for MS or for other complex diseases), provides empiric evidence that our universe is non-deterministic.

Remote Observational Research for Multiple Sclerosis: A Natural Experiment.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Prospective, deeply phenotyped research cohorts monitoring individuals with chronic neurologic conditions, such as multiple sclerosis (MS), depend on continued participant engagement. The COVID-19 pandemic restricted in-clinic research activities, threatening this longitudinal engagement, but also forced adoption of televideo-enabled care. This offered a natural experiment in which to analyze key dimensions of remote research: (1) comparison of remote vs in-clinic visit costs from multiple perspectives and (2) comparison of the remote with in-clinic measures in cross-sectional and longitudinal disability evaluations. METHODS: Between March 2020 and December 2021, 207 MS cohort participants underwent hybrid in-clinic and virtual research visits; 96 contributed 100 "matched visits," that is, in-clinic (Neurostatus-Expanded Disability Status Scale [NS-EDSS]) and remote (televideo-enabled EDSS [tele-EDSS]; electronic patient-reported EDSS [ePR-EDSS]) evaluations. Clinical, demographic, and socioeconomic characteristics of participants were collected. RESULTS: The costs of remote visits were lower than in-clinic visits for research investigators (facilities, personnel, parking, participant compensation) but also for participants (travel, caregiver time) and carbon footprint (p < 0.05 for each). Median cohort EDSS was similar between the 3 modalities (NS-EDSS: 2, tele-EDSS: 1.5, ePR-EDSS: 2, range 0.6.5); the remote evaluations were each noninferior to the NS-EDSS within ±0.5 EDSS point (TOST for noninferiority, p < 0.01 for each). Furthermore, year to year, the % of participants with worsening/stable/improved EDSS scores was similar, whether each annual evaluation used NS-EDSS or whether it switched from NS-EDSS to tele-EDSS. DISCUSSION: Altogether, the current findings suggest that remote evaluations can reduce the costs of research participation for patients, while providing a reasonable evaluation of disability trajectory longitudinally. This could inform the design of remote research that is more inclusive of diverse participants.

Spinal Cord Atrophy Predicts Progressive Disease in Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: A major challenge in multiple sclerosis (MS) research is the understanding of silent progression and Progressive MS. Using a novel method to accurately capture upper cervical cord area from legacy brain MRI scans we aimed to study the role of spinal cord and brain atrophy for silent progression and conversion to secondary progressive disease (SPMS). METHODS: From a single-center observational study, all RRMS (n = 360) and SPMS (n = 47) patients and 80 matched controls were evaluated. RRMS patient subsets who converted to SPMS (n = 54) or silently progressed (n = 159), respectively, during the 12-year observation period were compared to clinically matched RRMS patients remaining RRMS (n = 54) or stable (n = 147), respectively. From brain MRI, we assessed the value of brain and spinal cord measures to predict silent progression and SPMS conversion. RESULTS: Patients who developed SPMS showed faster cord atrophy rates (-2.19%/yr) at least 4 years before conversion compared to their RRMS matches (-0.88%/yr, p < 0.001). Spinal cord atrophy rates decelerated after conversion (-1.63%/yr, p = 0.010) towards those of SPMS patients from study entry (-1.04%). Each 1% faster spinal cord atrophy rate was associated with 69% (p < 0.0001) and 53% (p < 0.0001) shorter time to silent progression and SPMS conversion, respectively. INTERPRETATION: Silent progression and conversion to secondary progressive disease are predominantly related to cervical cord atrophy. This atrophy is often present from the earliest disease stages and predicts the speed of silent progression and conversion to Progressive MS. Diagnosis of SPMS is rather a late recognition of this neurodegenerative process than a distinct disease phase. ANN NEUROL 2022;91:268-281.

Genetic susceptibility to multiple sclerosis in African Americans.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the nature of genetic-susceptibility to multiple sclerosis (MS) in African-Americans. BACKGROUND: Recently, the number of genetic-associations with MS has exploded although the MS-associations of specific haplotypes within the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) have been known for decades. For example, the haplotypes HLA-DRB1*15:01~HLA-DQB1*06:02, and HLA-DRB1*03:01~ HLA-DQB1*02:01 have odds ratios (ORs) for an MS-association orders of magnitude stronger than many of these newly-discovered associations. Nevertheless, all these haplotypes are part of much larger conserved extended haplotypes (CEHs), which span both the Class I and Class II MHC regions. African-Americans are at greater risk of developing MS compared to a native Africans but at lesser risk compared to Europeans. It is the purpose of this manuscript to explore the relationship between MS-susceptibility and the CEH make-up of our African-American cohort. DESIGN/METHODS: The African-American (AA) cohort consisted of 1,305 patients with MS and 1,155 controls, who self-identified as being African-American. For comparison, we used the 18,492 controls and 11,144 MS-cases from the predominantly European Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium (WTCCC) and the 28,557 phased native Africans from the multinational "Be the Match" registry. The WTCCC and the African-Americans were phased at each of five HLA loci (HLA-A, HLA-C, HLA-B, HLA-DRB1 and HLA-DQB1) and the at 11 SNPs (10 of which were in non-coding regions) surrounding the Class II region of the DRB1 gene using previously-published probabilistic phasing algorithms. RESULTS: Of the 32 most frequent CEHs, 18 (56%) occurred either more frequently or exclusively in Africans) whereas 9 (28%) occurred more frequently or exclusively in Europeans. The remaining 5 CEHs occurred in neither control group although, likely, these were African in origin. Eight of these CEHs carried the DRB1*15:03~DQB1*06:02~a36 haplotype and three carried the DRB1*15:01~DQB1*06:02~a1 haplotype. In African Americans, a single-copy of the European CEH (03:01_07:02_07:02_15:01_06:02_a1) was associated with considerable MS-risk (OR = 3.30; p = 0.0001)-similar to that observed in the WTCCC (OR = 3.25; p<10-168). By contrast, the MS-risk for the European CEH (02:01_07:02_07:02_15:01_06:02_a1) was less (OR = 1.49; ns)-again, similar to the WTCCC (OR = 2.2; p<10-38). Moreover, four African haplotypes were "protective" relative to a neutral reference, to three European CEHs, and also to the five other African CEHs. CONCLUSIONS: The common CEHs in African Americans are divisible into those that are either African or European in origin, which are derived without modification from their source population. European CEHs, linked to MS-risk, in general, had similar impacts in African-Americans as they did in Europeans. By contrast, African CEHs had mixed MS-risks. For a few, the MS-risk exceeded that in a neutral-reference group whereas, for many others, these CEHs were "protective"-perhaps providing a partial rationale for the lower MS-risk in African-Americans compared to European-Americans.

Estimating environmental vulnerability in the Cerrado with machine learning and Twitter data.

Estimating vulnerability is critical to understand human-induced influenceimpacts on the environmental system. The purpose of the current study was to integrate machine learning algorithm and Twitter data to estimate environmental vulnerability in the Brazilian Cerrado for the years 2011 and 2016. We first selected six exposure indicators and five sensitivity indicators to build an environmental vulnerability model and applied an Autoencoder algorithm to find the representation of exposure and sensitivity, respectively. Then the Displaced Ideal method was used to estimate environmental vulnerability. Finally, related historical Twitter data was mined from these two years to validate the results. The findings showed that the percent of land classified as areas of low, medium and high environmental vulnerability were 6.72%, 34.85%, and 58.44% in 2011 and 3.45%, 33.68% and 62.87% in 2016, respectively and most high environmental vulnerability areas were in the Southern Cerrado. Moreover, the Twitter data results showed that more than 85% of tweets occurred in the areas considered as high environmental vulnerability class. The work revealed that the Autoencoder algorithm can be used for environmental assessment, and the social media data has potential to effectively analyze the relationship between human activity and the environment. Although the study provided a novel perspective to estimate environmental vulnerability at a regional scale, it was necessary to develop a more comprehensive indicator system that can improve model performance in the future.

The nature of genetic and environmental susceptibility to multiple sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: To understand the nature of genetic and environmental susceptibility to multiple sclerosis (MS) and, by extension, susceptibility to other complex genetic diseases. BACKGROUND: Certain basic epidemiological parameters of MS (e.g., population-prevalence of MS, recurrence-risks for MS in siblings and twins, proportion of women among MS patients, and the time-dependent changes in the sex-ratio) are well-established. In addition, more than 233 genetic-loci have now been identified as being unequivocally MS-associated, including 32 loci within the major histocompatibility complex (MHC), and one locus on the X chromosome. Despite this recent explosion in genetic associations, however, the association of MS with the HLA-DRB1*15:01~HLA-DQB1*06:02~a1 (H+) haplotype has been known for decades. DESIGN/METHODS: We define the "genetically-susceptible" subset (G) to include everyone with any non-zero life-time chance of developing MS. Individuals who have no chance of developing MS, regardless of their environmental experiences, belong to the mutually exclusive "non-susceptible" subset (G-). Using these well-established epidemiological parameters, we analyze, mathematically, the implications that these observations have regarding the genetic-susceptibility to MS. In addition, we use the sex-ratio change (observed over a 35-year interval in Canada), to derive the relationship between MS-probability and an increasing likelihood of a sufficient environmental exposure. RESULTS: We demonstrate that genetic-susceptibitly is confined to less than 7.3% of populations throughout Europe and North America. Consequently, more than 92.7% of individuals in these populations have no chance whatsoever of developing MS, regardless of their environmental experiences. Even among carriers of the HLA-DRB1*15:01~HLA-DQB1*06:02~a1 haplotype, far fewer than 32% can possibly be members the (G) subset. Also, despite the current preponderance of women among MS patients, women are less likely to be in the susceptible (G) subset and have a higher environmental threshold for developing MS compared to men. Nevertheless, the penetrance of MS in susceptible women is considerably greater than it is in men. Moreover, the response-curves for MS-probability in susceptible individuals increases with an increasing likelihood of a sufficient environmental exposure, especially among women. However, these environmental response-curves plateau at under 50% for women and at a significantly lower level for men. CONCLUSIONS: The pathogenesis of MS requires both a genetic predisposition and a suitable environmental exposure. Nevertheless, genetic-susceptibility is rare in the population (< 7.3%) and requires specific combinations of non-additive genetic risk-factors. For example, only a minority of carriers of the HLA-DRB1*15:01~HLA-DQB1*06:02~a1 haplotype are even in the (G) subset and, thus, genetic-susceptibility to MS in these carriers must result from the combined effect this haplotype together with the effects of certain other (as yet, unidentified) genetic factors. By itself, this haplotype poses no MS-risk. By contrast, a sufficient environmental exposure (however many events are involved, whenever these events need to act, and whatever these events might be) is common, currently occurring in, at least, 76% of susceptible individuals. In addition, the fact that environmental response-curves plateau well below 50% (especially in men), indicates that disease pathogenesis is partly stochastic. By extension, other diseases, for which monozygotic-twin recurrence-risks greatly exceed the disease-prevalence (e.g., rheumatoid arthritis, diabetes, and celiac disease), must have a similar genetic basis.

An electronic, unsupervised patient-reported Expanded Disability Status Scale for multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: In persons with multiple sclerosis (MS), the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) is the criterion standard for assessing disability, but its in-person nature constrains patient participation in research and clinical assessments. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to develop and validate a scalable, electronic, unsupervised patient-reported EDSS (ePR-EDSS) that would capture MS-related disability across the spectrum of severity. METHODS: We enrolled 136 adult MS patients, split into a preliminary testing Cohort 1 (n = 50), and a validation Cohort 2 (n = 86), which was evenly distributed across EDSS groups. Each patient completed an ePR-EDSS either immediately before or after a MS clinician's Neurostatus EDSS evaluation. RESULTS: In Cohort 2, mean age was 50.6 years (range = 26-80) and median EDSS was 3.5 (interquartile range (IQR) = [1.5, 5.5]). The ePR-EDSS and EDSS agreed within 1-point for 86% of examinations; kappa for agreement within 1-point was 0.85 (p < 0.001). The correlation coefficient between the two measures was 0.91 (<0.001). DISCUSSION: The ePR-EDSS was highly correlated with EDSS, with good agreement even at lower EDSS levels. For clinical care, the ePR-EDSS could enable the longitudinal monitoring of a patient's disability. For research, it provides a valid and rapid measure across the entire spectrum of disability and permits broader participation with fewer in-person assessments.

Hyperspectral Analysis of Leaf Pigments and Nutritional Elements in Tallgrass Prairie Vegetation.

Understanding the spatial distribution of forage quality is important to address critical research questions in grassland science. Due to its efficiency and accuracy, there has been a widespread interest in mapping the canopy vegetation characteristics using remote sensing methods. In this study, foliar chlorophylls, carotenoids, and nutritional elements across multiple tallgrass prairie functional groups were quantified at the leaf level using hyperspectral analysis in the region of 470-800 nm, which was expected to be a precursor to further remote sensing of canopy vegetation quality. A method of spectral standardization was developed using a form of the normalized difference, which proved feasible to reduce the interference from background effects in the leaf reflectance measurements. Chlorophylls and carotenoids were retrieved through inverting the physical model PROSPECT 5. The foliar nutritional elements were modeled empirically. Partial least squares regression was used to build the linkages between the high-dimensional spectral predictor variables and the foliar biochemical contents. Results showed that the retrieval of leaf biochemistry through hyperspectral analysis can be accurate and robust across different tallgrass prairie functional groups. In addition, correlations were found between the leaf pigments and nutritional elements. Results provided insight into the use of pigment-related vegetation indices as the proxy of plant nutrition quality.

Silent progression in disease activity-free relapsing multiple sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: Rates of worsening and evolution to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (MS) may be substantially lower in actively treated patients compared to natural history studies from the pretreatment era. Nonetheless, in our recently reported prospective cohort, more than half of patients with relapsing MS accumulated significant new disability by the 10th year of follow-up. Notably, "no evidence of disease activity" at 2 years did not predict long-term stability. Here, we determined to what extent clinical relapses and radiographic evidence of disease activity contribute to long-term disability accumulation. METHODS: Disability progression was defined as an increase in Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) of 1.5, 1.0, or 0.5 (or greater) from baseline EDSS = 0, 1.0-5.0, and 5.5 or higher, respectively, assessed from baseline to year 5 (±1 year) and sustained to year 10 (±1 year). Longitudinal analysis of relative brain volume loss used a linear mixed model with sex, age, disease duration, and HLA-DRB1*15:01 as covariates. RESULTS: Relapses were associated with a transient increase in disability over 1-year intervals (p = 0.012) but not with confirmed disability progression (p = 0.551). Relative brain volume declined at a greater rate among individuals with disability progression compared to those who remained stable (p < 0.05). INTERPRETATION: Long-term worsening is common in relapsing MS patients, is largely independent of relapse activity, and is associated with accelerated brain atrophy. We propose the term silent progression to describe the insidious disability that accrues in many patients who satisfy traditional criteria for relapsing-remitting MS. Ann Neurol 2019;85:653-666.

Harnessing electronic medical records to advance research on multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Electronic medical records (EMR) data are increasingly used in research, but no studies have yet evaluated similarity between EMR and research-quality data and between characteristics of an EMR multiple sclerosis (MS) population and known natural MS history. OBJECTIVES: To (1) identify MS patients in an EMR system and extract clinical data, (2) compare EMR-extracted data with gold-standard research data, and (3) compare EMR MS population characteristics to expected MS natural history. METHODS: Algorithms were implemented to identify MS patients from the University of California San Francisco EMR, de-identify the data and extract clinical variables. EMR-extracted data were compared to research cohort data in a subset of patients. RESULTS: We identified 4142 MS patients via search of the EMR and extracted their clinical data with good accuracy. EMR and research values showed good concordance for Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), timed-25-foot walk, and subtype. We replicated several expected MS epidemiological features from MS natural history including higher EDSS for progressive versus relapsing-remitting patients and for male versus female patients and increased EDSS with age at examination and disease duration. CONCLUSION: Large real-world cohorts algorithmically extracted from the EMR can expand opportunities for MS clinical research.

Predictive validity of NEDA in the 16- and 21-year follow-up from the pivotal trial of interferon beta-1b.

BACKGROUND: Long-term follow-up from the randomized trial of interferon beta-1b (IFNB-1b) permitted the assessment of different definitions of no evidence of disease activity (NEDA) for predicting long-term outcome in multiple sclerosis (MS). OBJECTIVE: To examine the predictive validity of different NEDA definitions. METHODS: Predictive validity for negative disability outcomes (NDOs) at 16 years and survival at 21 years post-randomization were assessed. NEDA in the first 2 years was defined as follows: clinical NEDA: no relapses or Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) progression from baseline to Year 2; NEDA-3a: no relapses, no confirmed ⩾1-point EDSS progression, and no new T2-active lesions; NEDA-3b: no relapses, no EDSS progression, and no increase in T2 burden of disease (T2-BOD); and NEDA-4: no relapses, no EDSS progression, and no increase in T2-BOD or atrophy. NDOs were defined as death, need for wheelchair, EDSS ⩾6, or progressive MS. RESULTS: A total of 245 and 371 patients were evaluated at 16 and 21 years, respectively. Clinical NEDA predicted NDOs ( p = 0.0029), as did baseline EDSS ( p < 0.0001), baseline T2-BOD ( p < 0.0001), and change in T2-BOD ( p = 0.0033). IFNB-1b treatment ( p = 0.0251), relapse rate in the 2 years before study start ( p = 0.0260), T2-BOD at baseline ( p = 0.0014), and change in T2-BOD ( p = 0.0129) predicted survival at 21 years. CONCLUSION: Clinical NEDA predicted long-term disability outcome. By contrast, definitions of NEDA that included on-therapy changes in magnetic resonance imaging variables did not increase the predictive validity.

Natural infection of Neotropical bats with hantavirus in Brazil.

Bats (Order: Chiroptera) harbor a high diversity of emerging pathogens presumably because their ability to fly and social behavior favor the maintenance, evolution, and dissemination of these pathogens. Until 2012, there was only one report of the presence of Hantavirus in bats. Historically, it was thought that these viruses were harbored primarily by rodent and insectivore small mammals. Recently, new species of hantaviruses have been identified in bats from Africa and Asia continents expanding the potential reservoirs and range of these viruses. To assess the potential of Neotropical bats as hosts for hantaviruses and its transmission dynamics in nature, we tested 53 bats for active hantaviral infection from specimens collected in Southeastern Brazil. Part of the hantaviral S segment was amplified from the frugivorous Carollia perspicillata and the common vampire bat Desmodus rotundus. DNA sequencing showed high similarity with the genome of Araraquara orthohantavirus (ARQV), which belongs to one of the more lethal hantavirus clades (Andes orthohantavirus). ARQV-like infection was detected in the blood, urine, and organs of D. rotundus. Therefore, we describe a systemic infection in Neotropical bats by a human pathogenic Hantavirus. We also propose here a schematic transmission dynamics of hantavirus in the study region. Our results give insights to new, under-appreciated questions that need to be addressed in future studies to clarify hantavirus transmission in nature and avoid hantavirus outbreaks.

Highly conserved extended haplotypes of the major histocompatibility complex and their relationship to multiple sclerosis susceptibility.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the relationship between highly-conserved extended-haplotypes (CEHs) in the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) and MS-susceptibility. BACKGROUND: Among the ~200 MS-susceptibility regions, which are known from genome-wide analyses of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), the MHC accounts for roughly a third of the currently explained variance and the strongest MS-associations are for certain Class II alleles (e.g., HLA-DRB1*15:01; HLA-DRB1*03:01; and HLA-DRB1*13:03), which frequently reside on CEHs within the MHC. DESIGN/METHODS: Autosomal SNPs (441,547) from 11,376 MS cases and 18,872 controls in the WTCCC dataset were phased. The most significant MS associated SNP haplotype was composed of 11 SNPs in the MHC Class II region surrounding the HLA-DRB1 gene. We also phased alleles at the HLA-A, HLA-C, HLA-B, HLA-DRB1, and HLA-DQB1 loci. This data was used to probe the relationship between CEHs and MS susceptibility. RESULTS: We phased a total of 59,884 extended haplotypes (HLA-A, HLA-C, HLA-B, HLA-DRB1, HLA-DQB1 and SNP haplotypes) from 29,942 individuals. Of these, 10,078 unique extended haplotypes were identified. The 10 most common CEHs accounted for 22% (13,302) of the total. By contrast, the 8,446 least common extended haplotypes also accounted for approximately 20% (12,298) of the total. This extreme frequency-disparity among extended haplotypes necessarily complicates interpretation of reported disease-associations with specific HLA alleles. In particular, the HLA motif HLA-DRB1*15:01~HLA-DQB1*06:02 is strongly associated with MS risk. Nevertheless, although this motif is almost always found on the a1 SNP haplotype, it can rarely be found on others (e.g., a27 and a36), and, in these cases, it seems to have no apparent disease-association (OR = 0.7; CI = 0.3-1.3 and OR = 0.7; CI = 0.2-2.2, respectively). Furthermore, single copy carriers of the a1 SNP-haplotype without this HLA motif still have an increased disease risk (OR = 2.2; CI = 1.2-3.8). In addition, even among the set of CEHs, which carry the Class II motif of HLA-DRB1*15:01~HLA-DQB1*06:02~a1, different CEHs have differing strengths in their MS-associations. CONCLUSIONS: The MHC in diverse human populations consists, primarily, of a very small collection of very highly-selected CEHs. Our findings suggest that the MS-association with the HLA-DRB1*15:01~HLA-DQB1*06:02 haplotype may be due primarily to the combined attributes of the CEHs on which this particular HLA-motif often resides.

Comparing the efficacy of disease-modifying therapies in multiple sclerosis.

Establishing the relative efficacy and safety of the different disease modifying therapies (DMTs) in multiple sclerosis (MS) is critical to the choice of agent that clinicians recommend for individual MS patients. The best evidence for the relative efficacy of the different DMTs comes from head-to-head randomized clinical trials (RCTs). Understanding that outcome-measures with the best established validity are the relapse rate and the actual (not the "confirmed") change in the extended disability status scale (EDSS), we conclude from these head-to-head RCTs that interferon-beta (IFNß) given subcutaneously multiple times per week (either IFNß-1b or IFNß-1a) and glatiramer acetate (GA) are about equivalent in terms of efficacy and that both of these agents, as well as many of the other DMTs, are superior to weekly intramuscular IFNß-1a. Nevertheless, as ever-newer agents with novel mechanisms of action are brought to the marketplace, such direct head-to-head trials are becoming increasingly impractical, raising the need for alternative methods to draw reasonable inferences from less rigorous clinical data. One possible approach to judging comparative efficacy is to make comparisons across clinical trials using the complimentary analytic methods of calculating both the relative risk/rate and the absolute risk/rate reductions. A consideration and application of this analytic approach is undertaken here. It is only with an understanding of the safety and efficacy of the different agents that we can select, together with the patient, the right agent for the right person.

Heterogeneous Associations of Ecological Attributes with Tick-Borne Rickettsial Pathogens in a Periurban Landscape.

The variations in prevalence levels of two tick-borne rickettsial pathogens, Ehrlichia chaffeensis and Ehrlichia Ewingii, in a periurban environment were evaluated along with their ecological determinants. Tick life stage and sex, month of tick collection, landscape fragmentation, and ecological covariates specific to pasture and woodland sites were considered as explanatory covariates. Questing lone star ticks (Amblyomma americanum) were collected by flagging for an hour once every week during mid-April through mid-August in years 2013 and 2014. A total of 4357 adult and nymphal ticks (woodland = 2720 and pasture = 1637) were collected and assessed for pathogen prevalence by molecular methods. Female A. americanum ticks were more infected with E. chaffeensis than males or nymphs in woodland areas [♂ = 6.05%; ♀ = 12.0%; nymphs = 2.09%] and pastures [♂ = 8.05%; ♀ = 12.03%; nymphs = 3.33%], and the prevalence was influenced by edge density in the landscape. Higher E. ewingii infection was noted among female A. americanum ticks within woodland areas [♂ = 1.89%; ♀ = 2.14%; nymphs = 1.57%], but no such difference was evident in pastures [♂ = 1.03%; ♀ = 1.33%; nymphs = 1.12%]. Prevalence of E. ewingii was influenced by edge contrast index, and the percentage of pasture perimeter that was less than 20 meters from woodland areas. This study elucidates the complexity of tick-borne pathogen ecology and points to the need for further studies on the role of reservoir hosts, particularly that played by small vertebrates, which is not fully understood in the region.

Long-term evolution of multiple sclerosis disability in the treatment era.

OBJECTIVE: To characterize the accrual of long-term disability in a cohort of actively treated multiple sclerosis (MS) patients and to assess whether clinical and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data used in clinical trials have long-term prognostic value. METHODS: This is a prospective study of 517 actively managed MS patients enrolled at a single center. RESULTS: More than 91% of patients were retained, with data ascertained up to 10 years after the baseline visit. At this last assessment, neurologic disability as measured by the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) was stable or improved compared to baseline in 41% of patients. Subjects with no evidence of disease activity (NEDA) by clinical and MRI criteria during the first 2 years had long-term outcomes that were no different from those of the cohort as a whole. 25-OH vitamin D serum levels were inversely associated with short-term MS disease activity; however, these levels had no association with long-term disability. At a median time of 16.8 years after disease onset, 10.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 7.2-14%) of patients reached an EDSS ≥ 6, and 18.1% (95% CI = 13.5-22.5%) evolved from relapsing MS to secondary progressive MS (SPMS). INTERPRETATION: Rates of worsening and evolution to SPMS were substantially lower when compared to earlier natural history studies. Notably, the NEDA 2-year endpoint was not a predictor of long-term stability. Finally, the data call into question the utility of annual MRI assessments as a treat-to-target approach for MS care. Ann Neurol 2016;80:499-510.

Serologic Evidence of Mammarenaviruses among Wild Rodents in Brazil.

We screened blood samples from 560 wild rodents collected in southeastern Brazil for antibodies to a recombinant nucleoprotein (rN) of Junín virus. Six rodents were antibody positive (1.1%), demonstrating evidence of infection with mammarenaviruses in several species of Brazilian rodents.

Application of unmanned aerial systems for high throughput phenotyping of large wheat breeding nurseries.

BACKGROUND: Low cost unmanned aerial systems (UAS) have great potential for rapid proximal measurements of plants in agriculture. In the context of plant breeding and genetics, current approaches for phenotyping a large number of breeding lines under field conditions require substantial investments in time, cost, and labor. For field-based high-throughput phenotyping (HTP), UAS platforms can provide high-resolution measurements for small plot research, while enabling the rapid assessment of tens-of-thousands of field plots. The objective of this study was to complete a baseline assessment of the utility of UAS in assessment field trials as commonly implemented in wheat breeding programs. We developed a semi-automated image-processing pipeline to extract plot level data from UAS imagery. The image dataset was processed using a photogrammetric pipeline based on image orientation and radiometric calibration to produce orthomosaic images. We also examined the relationships between vegetation indices (VIs) extracted from high spatial resolution multispectral imagery collected with two different UAS systems (eBee Ag carrying MultiSpec 4C camera, and IRIS+ quadcopter carrying modified NIR Canon S100) and ground truth spectral data from hand-held spectroradiometer. RESULTS: We found good correlation between the VIs obtained from UAS platforms and ground-truth measurements and observed high broad-sense heritability for VIs. We determined radiometric calibration methods developed for satellite imagery significantly improved the precision of VIs from the UAS. We observed VIs extracted from calibrated images of Canon S100 had a significantly higher correlation to the spectroradiometer (r = 0.76) than VIs from the MultiSpec 4C camera (r = 0.64). Their correlation to spectroradiometer readings was as high as or higher than repeated measurements with the spectroradiometer per se. CONCLUSION: The approaches described here for UAS imaging and extraction of proximal sensing data enable collection of HTP measurements on the scale and with the precision needed for powerful selection tools in plant breeding. Low-cost UAS platforms have great potential for use as a selection tool in plant breeding programs. In the scope of tools development, the pipeline developed in this study can be effectively employed for other UAS and also other crops planted in breeding nurseries.