Understanding policy amenable risk factors: Alcohol consumption and long-term care use among people over 65 years old.

OBJECTIVES: This study aims to explore the effect of past alcohol consumption frequency on formal and informal long-term care (LTC) use in old age and explore the different channels through which it may affect LTC use. MOTIVATION: The existing literature has mainly focused on risk factors associated with a nursing home entry, but this evidence is outdated, not UK-focused, and does not look into other types of care, such as informal care. The results of this study will help in modelling the future demand for various types of care and the corresponding public spending. METHODS: We use the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) (2002-2017) dataset to conduct longitudinal, individual-level analysis. We explore how the previous frequency of alcohol consumption affects formal and informal care use. We focus on people aged 65 and over with no previous LTC use and run regressions with and without instrumental variables (IV) to estimate how alcohol consumption patterns in the previous wave (2 years before) affect formal and informal care use. For IV regressions, we use the polygenic score for alcohol use, available for a subsample of ELSA respondents, as an instrument while also accounting for sociodemographic characteristics, lifestyle choices, and health conditions. RESULTS: The main IV estimates suggest that frequent alcohol consumption has a weakly significant positive effect on the onset of formal LTC care use compared to none/rare drinking. This relationship diminishes and is not statistically significant when we directly control for health status. We find no statistically significant effect towards informal LTC use. These results contrast with the estimates without IV, which suggest that frequent alcohol consumption is negatively associated with informal care use and no or weakly negative association with formal care use. DISCUSSION: Our findings suggest that unobserved confounding is important when studying the relationship between alcohol consumption and LTC. We hypothesise that primarily alcohol effects LTC through its adverse effect on health. In addition, unobserved factors like preferences towards seeking care, social behaviour may be related to alcohol consumption and affect access to care. We speculate alcohol may have a damaging effect on personal relationships and could indicate the burden eventually falling on formal care. In as far as the polygenic score IV can account for unobserved preference-behaviour differences, the results (weakly) support the hypothesis that these latter processes are relevant, especially for informal care use.

Delivering clinical studies of exercise in the COVID-19 pandemic: challenges and adaptations using a feasibility trial of isometric exercise to treat hypertension as an exemplar.

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted on the delivery of clinical trials in the UK, posing complicated organisational challenges and requiring adaptations, especially to exercise intervention studies based in the community. We aim to identify the challenges of public involvement, recruitment, consent, follow-up, intervention and the healthcare professional delivery aspects of a feasibility study of exercise in hypertensive primary care patients during the COVID-19 pandemic. While these challenges elicited many reactive changes which were specific to, and only relevant in the context of 'lockdown' requirements, some of the protocol developments that came about during this unprecedented period have great potential to inform more permanent practices for carrying out this type of research. To this end, we detail the necessary adaptations to many elements of the feasibility study and critically reflect on our approach to redesigning and amending this ongoing project in order to maintain its viability to date. Some of the more major protocol adaptations, such as moving the study to remote means wherever possible, had further unforeseen and undesirable outcomes (eg, additional appointments) with regards to extra resources required to deliver the study. However, other changes improved the efficiency of the study, such as the remote informed consent and the direct advertising with prescreening survey. The adaptations to the study have clear links to the UK Plan for the future of research delivery. It is intended that this specific documentation and critical evaluation will help those planning or delivering similar studies to do so in a more resource efficient and effective way. In conclusion, it is essential to reflect and respond with protocol changes in the current climate in order to deliver clinical research successfully, as in the case of this particular study.

Personal assistants in England and the factors associated with absenteeism.

Personal assistants (PAs) have become an increasingly important element of long-term care (LTC) in England since the introduction of Direct Payments in 1996 and the Care Act 2014 legislation. The PAs, who are directly employed by social care users, can perform a number of support tasks including vital assistance in activities of daily living (ADL). Internationally these roles would be classed as domestic care work, including the employment of migrant care workers, e.g. in Germany and Austria. High turnover rates and work absenteeism in this market can cause disruption of these important daily activities, causing LTC users to potentially suffer neglect and poorer quality of life. Although there is research on turnover and absenteeism in nursing workforce in hospitals and LTC workers in nursing homes, little attention has been given to reasons for turnover of PAs and even less for absenteeism, which often precedes turnover, in a workforce of over 100,000 people in England. This research aims to fill this gap in knowledge by analyzing the reasons behind the absenteeism of PAs using quantitative methods. We used survey data of PAs in England, exploring the factors associated to one form of absenteeism-sick leave from work. After controlling for a number of factors ranging from job characteristics such as number of hours worked and type of contract, socio-economic characteristics from the PA and their employer, and supply and demand factors at local government region, the findings suggest a number of factors that significantly influenced sick leave, including distances traveled to work and number of PAs employed. Following the analysis, two people with life experience of LTC discuss the findings of the study and how they compare to their experiences of the market for PAs, providing a unique perspective from the people who could benefit the most from improving PA retention and reducing absenteeism.

Feasibility study to assess the delivery of a novel isometric exercise intervention for people with stage 1 hypertension in the NHS: protocol for the IsoFIT-BP study including amendments to mitigate the risk of COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension  (HTN) affects approximately 25% of the UK population and is a leading cause of mortality. Associated annual health care costs run into billions. National treatment guidance includes initial lifestyle advice, followed by anti-hypertensive medication if blood pressure (BP) remains high. However, adoption and adherence to recommended exercise guidelines, dietary advice and anti-hypertensive medication is poor. Four short bouts of isometric exercise (IE) performed 3 days per week (d/wk) at home elicits clinically significant reductions in BP in those with normal to high-normal BP. This study will determine the feasibility of delivering personalised IE to patients with stage 1 hypertension for whom lifestyle changes would be recommended before medication within NHS primary care. METHODS: This is a randomised controlled feasibility study. Participants were 18+ years, with stage 1 hypertension, not on anti-hypertensive medication and without significant medical contraindications. Trial arms will be standard lifestyle advice (control) or isometric wall squat exercise and standard lifestyle advice. Primary outcomes include the feasibility of healthcare professionals to deliver isometric exercise prescriptions in a primary care NHS setting and estimation of the variance of change in systolic BP. Secondary outcomes include accuracy of protocol delivery, execution of and adherence to protocol, recruitment rate, attrition, perception of intervention viability, cost, participant experience and accuracy of home BP. The study will last 18 months. Sample size of 100 participants (50 per arm) allows for 20% attrition and 6.5% incomplete data, based upon 74 (37 each arm) participants (two-sided 95% confidence interval, width of 1.33 and standard deviation of 4) completing 4 weeks. Ethical approval IRAS ID is 274676. DISCUSSION: Before the efficacy of this novel intervention to treat stage 1 hypertension can be investigated in any large randomised controlled trial, it is necessary to ascertain if it can be delivered and carried out in a NHS primary care setting. Findings could support IE viability as a prophylactic/alternative treatment option. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN13472393 , registered 18 August 2020.

Unmet social care needs of people living with and beyond cancer: prevalence and predictors from an English longitudinal survey.

OBJECTIVES: This study estimates the prevalence of unmet social care needs of people over 50 living in England with cancer and the effect of cancer on unmet needs. METHODS: We used data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. We estimated the mean, standard deviation and 95% CI of the prevalence of unmet social care needs among people with cancer. Logistic regression analysis with individual random effects was used to estimate the effect of cancer on unmet needs controlling for other determinants. Pain measures were included stepwise in the regression to estimate their mediating effect. RESULTS: The prevalence rate of unmet social care needs among people living with cancer is 9% (SD = 0.29; 95% CI: 8.3-10) compared to 6% (SD = 0.24; 95% CI: 6.1-6.5) among people without cancer. People with cancer have significantly higher odds of having unmet needs by a factor of 1.44 (95% CI: 1.20-1.72), after controlling for the effect of other characteristics. Adding pain measures reduces the effect of cancer to a factor of 1.36 (95% CI: 1.14-1.64) in the odds of unmet needs but still remains statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: A more integrated approach to cancer care is more likely to address the high level of unmet needs and consequent adverse implications.

Exploring differences between private and public prices in the English care homes market.

This work quantitatively assesses the potential reasons behind the difference in prices paid by care home residents in England. Evidence suggests that the price paid by private payers is higher than that paid for publicly supported residents, and this is often attributed to the market power wielded by local authorities as the dominant purchaser in local markets. Estimations of private prices at the local authority level are used to assess the difference in price paid between private and public prices, the fees gap, using data from 2008 to 2010. Controlling for local area and average care home characteristics, the results indicate that both care home and local authority market power play a role in the price determination of the market.

Effect of body mass on future long-term care use.

BACKGROUND: Obesity is a known predictor of disability and functional limitations, and, in turn, of health care use. In this study, we aim to explore whether obesity is also a significant risk factor for future long-term care use, overall and by type of care. METHODS: We use multinomial logistic regression analysis on data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) for individuals aged 65 and older between 2002 and 2011. Selection issues are tackled using the rich set of control variables, exploiting the data's longitudinal structure and accounting for loss to follow-up (including death). Control factors include health-related behaviours (physical activity, alcohol and tobacco consumption), functional limitations (related to ADLs, iADLs and mobility) and specific existing health conditions, notably diabetes, high blood pressure and cardio-vascular diseases. RESULTS: We find that obese older people are 25% (p < 0.01) more likely to receive informal or privately-paid care in the future, but this does not hold for formal care. This is an additional direct effect after controlling for a wide range of health conditions and functional limitations. We document some evidence that this effect is due to the development of new functional limitations. Sensitivity analyses suggest that the results are robust to controlling for prediabetes, subjective health, depression, or unobserved heterogeneity. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides new evidence of a positive direct effect of obesity on the future use of long-term care services. Accordingly, it adds evidence of further economic benefits to any overall evaluation of policies to promote a healthy weight in the population, particularly in the older population.

The impact of long-term care on primary care doctor consultations for people over 75 years.

Many countries are adopting policies to create greater coordination and integration between acute and long-term care services. This policy is predicated on the assumption that these service areas have interdependent outcomes for patients. In this paper, we study the interdependencies between the long-term (home care) services and consultations with a primary care doctor, as used by people over 75 years. Starting with a model of individual's demand for doctor consultations, given supply, we formalize the hypothesis that exogenous increases to home care supply will reduce the number of consultations where these services are technical substitutes. Furthermore, greater coordination of public service planning and use of pooled budgets could lead to better outcomes because planners can account for these externalities. We test our main hypothesis using data from the British Household Panel Study for 1991-2009. To address potential concerns about endogeneity, we use a set of instrumental variables for home care motivated by institutional features of the social care system. We find that there is a statistically significant substitution effect between home care and doctor visits, which is robust across a range of specifications. This result has implications for policies that consider increased coordination between health care and social care systems.