ABSTRACT
AIM: To evaluate the social distance effect on the daily frequency of possible SARS-CoV-2 cases in Primary Care, in relation to the predictive model Kermack-McKendrick. METHODS: Longitudinal retrospective study in 2 rural populations of Aragon (13,579h). A time series evaluation with a t-Student analysis was carry on, during the first 70 days of the pandemic. A simple Kermack-McKendrick predictive model was compared with the possible COVID-19 cases. Complementary ANOVA analysis to assess the before-after number of daily cases, follow-up days and days from symptoms onset to first contact with Primary Health Care. RESULTS: Three hundred and fifty-nine cases were detected (53.4% women; 70.7% under 60). Primary Care followed 95.3% of cases. The number of cases during the first social distancing strategies was higher in comparison with the model (P=.004, P=.006 and P=.004) with a media of decreases of 6.7 possible cases by series. In relation to the lockdown period the model and cases are close (P=.608 and P=.093), with an average decrease of 1.8 cases per series. During post-containment, the number of cases per day (P<.001) and days of follow-up (P<.001) increased. CONCLUSIONS: Social distancing and containment measures were effective in reducing the number of possible COVID-19 cases in rural areas. Primary Care followed most of the cases.
