A bioenergy-focused versus a reforestation-focused mitigation pathway yields disparate carbon storage and climate responses.

Limiting global warming to 2 °C requires urgent action on land-based mitigation. This study evaluates the biogeochemical and biogeophysical implications of two alternative land-based mitigation scenarios that aim to achieve the same radiative forcing. One scenario is primarily driven by bioenergy expansion (SSP226Lu-BIOCROP), while the other involves re/afforestation (SSP126Lu-REFOREST). We find that overall, SSP126Lu-REFOREST is a more efficient strategy for removing CO2 from the atmosphere by 2100, resulting in a net carbon sink of 242 ~ 483 PgC with smaller uncertainties compared to SSP226Lu-BIOCROP, which exhibits a wider range of -78 ~ 621 PgC. However, SSP126Lu-REFOREST leads to a relatively warmer planetary climate than SSP226Lu-BIOCROP, and this relative warming can be intensified in certain re/afforested regions where local climates are not favorable for tree growth. Despite the cooling effect on a global scale, SSP226Lu-BIOCROP reshuffles regional warming hotspots, amplifying summer temperatures in vulnerable tropical regions such as Central Africa and Southeast Asia. Our findings highlight the need for strategic land use planning to identify suitable regions for re/afforestation and bioenergy expansion, thereby improving the likelihood of achieving the intended climate mitigation outcomes.

Global monthly sectoral water use for 2010-2100 at 0.5° resolution across alternative futures.

Water usage is closely linked with societal goals that are both local and global in scale, such as sustainable development and economic growth. It is therefore of value, particularly for long-term planning, to understand how future sectoral water usage could evolve on a global scale at fine resolution. Additionally, future water usage could be strongly shaped by global forces, such as socioeconomic and climate change, and the multi-sector dynamic interactions those forces create. We generate a novel global gridded monthly sectoral water withdrawal and consumption dataset at 0.5° resolution for 2010-2100 for a diverse range of 75 scenarios. The scenarios are harmonized with the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios to support its usage in studies evaluating the implications of uncertain human and earth system change for future global and regional dynamics. To generate the data, we couple the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) with a land use spatial downscaling model (Demeter), a global hydrologic framework (Xanthos), and a water withdrawal downscaling model (Tethys).

Agricultural impacts of sustainable water use in the United States.

Governance measures such as restrictions on groundwater pumping and adjustments to sectoral water pricing have been suggested as response strategies to curtail recent increases in groundwater pumping and enhance sustainable water use. However, little is known about the impacts of such sustainability strategies. We investigate the implications of such measures, with the United States (U.S.) as an example. Using the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) with state-level details in the U.S., we find that the combination of these two governance measures can drastically alter agricultural production in the U.S. The Southwest stands to lose upwards of 25% of their total agricultural production, much of which is compensated for by production increases in river basins on the east coast of the U.S. The implementation of future sustainable water governance measures will require additional investments that allow farmers to maximize production while minimizing water withdrawals to avoid potentially detrimental revenue losses.

Global land use for 2015-2100 at 0.05° resolution under diverse socioeconomic and climate scenarios.

Global future land use (LU) is an important input for Earth system models for projecting Earth system dynamics and is critical for many modeling studies on future global change. Here we generated a new global gridded LU dataset using the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) and a land use spatial downscaling model, named Demeter, under the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios. Compared to existing similar datasets, the presented dataset has a higher spatial resolution (0.05° × 0.05°) and spreads under a more comprehensive set of SSP-RCP scenarios (in total 15 scenarios), and considers uncertainties from the forcing climates. We compared our dataset with the Land Use Harmonization version 2 (LUH2) dataset and found our results are in general spatially consistent with LUH2. The presented dataset will be useful for global Earth system modeling studies, especially for the analysis of the impacts of land use and land cover change and socioeconomics, as well as the characterizing the uncertainties associated with these impacts.

Future changes in the trading of virtual water.

Water stressed regions rely heavily on the import of water-intensive goods to offset insufficient food production driven by socioeconomic and environmental factors. The water embedded in these traded commodities, virtual water, has received increasing interest in the scientific community. However, comprehensive future projections of virtual water trading remain absent. Here we show, for the first time, changes over the 21st century in the amount of various water types required to meet international agricultural demands. Accounting for evolution in socioeconomic and climatic conditions, we estimate future interregional virtual water trading and find trading of renewable water sources may triple by 2100 while nonrenewable groundwater trading may at least double. Basins in North America, and the La Plata and Nile Rivers are found to contribute extensively to virtual water exports, while much of Africa, India, and the Middle East relies heavily on virtual water imports by the end of the century.

A secure semi-field system for the study of Aedes aegypti.

BACKGROUND: New contained semi-field cages are being developed and used to test novel vector control strategies of dengue and malaria vectors. We herein describe a new Quarantine Insectary Level-2 (QIC-2) laboratory and field cages (James Cook University Mosquito Research Facility Semi-Field System; MRF SFS) that are being used to measure the impact of the endosymbiont Wolbachia pipientis on populations of Aedes aegypti in Cairns Australia. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The MRF consists of a single QIC-2 laboratory/insectary that connects through a central corridor to two identical QIC-2 semi-field cages. The semi-field cages are constructed of two layers of 0.25 mm stainless steel wire mesh to prevent escape of mosquitoes and ingress of other insects. The cages are covered by an aluminum security mesh to prevent penetration of the cages by branches and other missiles in the advent of a tropical cyclone. Parts of the cage are protected from UV light and rainfall by 90% shade cloth and a vinyl cover. A wooden structure simulating the understory of a Queenslander-style house is also situated at one end of each cage. The remainder of the internal aspect of the cage is covered with mulch and potted plants to emulate a typical yard. An air conditioning system comprised of two external ACs that feed cooled, moistened air into the cage units. The air is released from the central ceiling beam from a long cloth tube that disperses the airflow and also prevents mosquitoes from escaping the cage via the AC system. Sensors located inside and outside the cage monitor ambient temperature and relative humidity, with AC controlled to match ambient conditions. Data loggers set in the cages and outside found a <2 °C temperature difference. Additional security features include air curtains over exit doors, sticky traps to monitor for escaping mosquitoes between layers of the mesh, a lockable vestibule leading from the connecting corridor to the cage and from inside to outside of the insectary, and screened (0.25 mm mesh) drains within the insectary and the cage. A set of standard operating procedures (SOP) has been developed to ensure that security is maintained and for enhanced surveillance for escaping mosquitoes on the JCU campus where the MRF is located. A cohort of male and female Aedes aegypti mosquitoes were released in the cage and sampled every 3-4 days to determine daily survival within the cage; log linear regression from BG-sentinel trapping collections produced an estimated daily survival of 0.93 and 0.78 for females and males, respectively. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The MRF SFS allows us to test novel control strategies within a secure, contained environment. The air-conditioning system maintains conditions within the MRF cages comparable to outside ambient conditions. This cage provides a realistic transitional platform between the laboratory and the field in which to test novel control measures on quarantine level insects.