Development and validation of a nomogram incorporating gene expression profiling and clinical factors for accurate prediction of metastasis in patients with cutaneous melanoma following Mohs micrographic surgery.

BACKGROUND: There is a need to improve prognostic accuracy for patients with cutaneous melanoma. A 31-gene expression profile (31-GEP) test uses the molecular biology of primary tumors to identify individual patient metastatic risk. OBJECTIVE: Develop a nomogram incorporating 31-GEP with relevant clinical factors to improve prognostic accuracy. METHODS: In an IRB-approved study, 1124 patients from 9 Mohs micrographic surgery centers were prospectively enrolled, treated with Mohs micrographic surgery, and underwent 31-GEP testing. Data from 684 of those patients with at least 1-year follow-up or a metastatic event were included in nomogram development to predict metastatic risk. RESULTS: Logistic regression modeling of 31-GEP results and T stage provided the simplest nomogram with the lowest Bayesian information criteria score. Validation in an archival cohort (n = 901) demonstrated a significant linear correlation between observed and nomogram-predicted risk of metastasis. The resulting nomogram more accurately predicts the risk for cutaneous melanoma metastasis than T stage or 31-GEP alone. LIMITATIONS: The patient population is representative of Mohs micrographic surgery centers. Sentinel lymph node biopsy was not performed for most patients and could not be used in the nomogram. CONCLUSIONS: Integration of 31-GEP and T stage can gain clinically useful prognostic information from data obtained noninvasively.

Molecular risk prediction in cutaneous melanoma: A meta-analysis of the 31-gene expression profile prognostic test in 1,479 patients.

BACKGROUND: Multiple studies have reported on the accuracy of the prognostic 31-gene expression profile test for cutaneous melanoma. Consistency of the test results across studies has not been systematically evaluated. OBJECTIVE: To assess the robustness of the prognostic value of the 31-gene expression profile. METHODS: Raw data were obtained from studies identified from systematic review. A meta-analysis was performed to determine overall effect of the 31-gene expression profile. Clinical outcome metrics for the 31-gene expression profile were compared with American Joint Committee on Cancer staging. RESULTS: Three studies met inclusion criteria; data from a novel cohort of 211 patients were included (n = 1,479). Five-year recurrence-free and distant metastasis-free survival rates were 91.4% and 94.1% for Class 1A patients and 43.6% and 55.5% for Class 2B patients (P < .0001). Meta-analysis results showed that Class 2 was significantly associated with recurrence (hazard ratio 2.90; P < .0001) and distant metastasis (hazard ratio 2.75; P < .0001). The 31-gene expression profile identified American Joint Committee on Cancer stage I to III patient subsets with high likelihood for recurrence and distant metastasis. Sensitivity was 76% (95% confidence interval 71%-80%) and 76% (95% confidence interval 70%-82%) for each end point, respectively. When 31-gene expression profile and sentinel lymph node biopsy results were considered together, sensitivity and negative predictive value for distant metastasis-free survival were both improved. CONCLUSION: The 31-gene expression profile test consistently and accurately identifies melanoma patients at increased risk of metastasis, is independent of other clinicopathologic covariates, and augments current risk stratification by reclassifying patients for heightened surveillance who were previously designated as being at low risk.

Estimation of Prognosis in Invasive Cutaneous Melanoma: An Independent Study of the Accuracy of a Gene Expression Profile Test.

BACKGROUND: Cutaneous melanomas (CMs) with similar clinical and histopathologic features can harbor differing capacities for metastasis. A validated gene expression profile (GEP) test offers prognostic information by classifying CMs as low risk (Class 1A/1B) or high risk (Class 2A/2B) for metastasis. OBJECTIVE: The authors sought to perform an independent study of the predictive accuracy of the GEP test, to determine what clinical and histopathologic features predict high-risk classification, and to evaluate how intermediate classes (1B & 2A) performed clinically. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using our institution's prospectively collected melanoma registry, the authors identified patients who had been treated for CM within the last 5 years and undergone GEP testing. Clinical, histopathologic, and outcomes data were analyzed. A subcohort of patients with known metastatic disease were identified and tested. RESULTS: The GEP test accurately identified 77% of metastatic CMs as high risk (Class 2). The GEP had a negative predictive value of 99% for Class 1 CMs. Class 2 CMs were 22 times more likely to metastasize. CONCLUSION: The GEP test's performance in our independent cohort corresponded with previous industry-sponsored studies and proved to be a helpful clinical prognostic tool with the potential to direct patient care protocols.