A temporally and spatially explicit, data-driven estimation of airborne ragweed pollen concentrations across Europe.

Ongoing and future climate change driven expansion of aeroallergen-producing plant species comprise a major human health problem across Europe and elsewhere. There is an urgent need to produce accurate, temporally dynamic maps at the continental level, especially in the context of climate uncertainty. This study aimed to restore missing daily ragweed pollen data sets for Europe, to produce phenological maps of ragweed pollen, resulting in the most complete and detailed high-resolution ragweed pollen concentration maps to date. To achieve this, we have developed two statistical procedures, a Gaussian method (GM) and deep learning (DL) for restoring missing daily ragweed pollen data sets, based on the plant's reproductive and growth (phenological, pollen production and frost-related) characteristics. DL model performances were consistently better for estimating seasonal pollen integrals than those of the GM approach. These are the first published modelled maps using altitude correction and flowering phenology to recover missing pollen information. We created a web page (http://euragweedpollen.gmf.u-szeged.hu/), including daily ragweed pollen concentration data sets of the stations examined and their restored daily data, allowing one to upload newly measured or recovered daily data. Generation of these maps provides a means to track pollen impacts in the context of climatic shifts, identify geographical regions with high pollen exposure, determine areas of future vulnerability, apply spatially-explicit mitigation measures and prioritize management interventions.

Outdoor airborne allergens: Characterization, behavior and monitoring in Europe.

Aeroallergens or inhalant allergens, are proteins dispersed through the air and have the potential to induce allergic conditions such as rhinitis, conjunctivitis, and asthma. Outdoor aeroallergens are found predominantly in pollen grains and fungal spores, which are allergen carriers. Aeroallergens from pollen and fungi have seasonal emission patterns that correlate with plant pollination and fungal sporulation and are strongly associated with atmospheric weather conditions. They are released when allergen carriers come in contact with the respiratory system, e.g. the nasal mucosa. In addition, due to the rupture of allergen carriers, airborne allergen molecules may be released directly into the air in the form of micronic and submicronic particles (cytoplasmic debris, cell wall fragments, droplets etc.) or adhered onto other airborne particulate matter. Therefore, aeroallergen detection strategies must consider, in addition to the allergen carriers, the allergen molecules themselves. This review article aims to present the current knowledge on inhalant allergens in the outdoor environment, their structure, localization, and factors affecting their production, transformation, release or degradation. In addition, methods for collecting and quantifying aeroallergens are listed and thoroughly discussed. Finally, the knowledge gaps, challenges and implications associated with aeroallergen analysis are described.

Alternaria spore exposure in Bavaria, Germany, measured using artificial intelligence algorithms in a network of BAA500 automatic pollen monitors.

Although Alternaria spores are well-known allergenic fungal spores, automatic bioaerosol recognition systems have not been trained to recognize these particles until now. Here we report the development of a new algorithm able to classify Alternaria spores with BAA500 automatic bioaerosol monitors. The best validation score was obtained when the model was trained on both data from the original dataset and artificially generated images, with a validation unweighted mean Intersection over Union (IoU), also called Jaccard Index, of 0.95. Data augmentation techniques were applied to the training set. While some particles were not recognized (false negatives), false positives were few. The results correlated well with manual counts (mean of four Hirst-type traps), with R2 = 0.78. Counts from BAA500 were 1.92 times lower than with Hirst-type traps. The algorithm was then used to re-analyze the historical automatic pollen monitoring network (ePIN) dataset (2018-2022), which lacked Alternaria spore counts. Re-analysis of past data showed that Alternaria spore exposure in Bavaria was very variable, with the highest counts in the North (Marktheidenfeld, 154 m a.s.l.), and the lowest values close to the mountains in the South (Garmisch-Partenkirchen, 735 m a.s.l.). This approach shows that in our network future algorithms can be run on past datasets. Over time, the use of different algorithms could lead to misinterpretations as stemming from climate change or other phenological causes. Our approach enables consistent, homogeneous treatment of long-term series, thus preventing variability in particle counts owing to changes in the algorithms.

Towards European automatic bioaerosol monitoring: Comparison of 9 automatic pollen observational instruments with classic Hirst-type traps.

To benefit allergy patients and the medical practitioners, pollen information should be available in both a reliable and timely manner; the latter is only recently possible due to automatic monitoring. To evaluate the performance of all currently available automatic instruments, an international intercomparison campaign was jointly organised by the EUMETNET AutoPollen Programme and the ADOPT COST Action in Munich, Germany (March-July 2021). The automatic systems (hardware plus identification algorithms) were compared with manual Hirst-type traps. Measurements were aggregated into 3-hourly or daily values to allow comparison across all devices. We report results for total pollen as well as for Betula, Fraxinus, Poaceae, and Quercus, for all instruments that provided these data. The results for daily averages compared better with Hirst observations than the 3-hourly values. For total pollen, there was a considerable spread among systems, with some reaching R2 > 0.6 (3 h) and R2 > 0.75 (daily) compared with Hirst-type traps, whilst other systems were not suitable to sample total pollen efficiently (R2 < 0.3). For individual pollen types, results similar to the Hirst were frequently shown by a small group of systems. For Betula, almost all systems performed well (R2 > 0.75 for 9 systems for 3-hourly data). Results for Fraxinus and Quercus were not as good for most systems, while for Poaceae (with some exceptions), the performance was weakest. For all pollen types and for most measurement systems, false positive classifications were observed outside of the main pollen season. Different algorithms applied to the same device also showed different results, highlighting the importance of this aspect of the measurement system. Overall, given the 30 % error on daily concentrations that is currently accepted for Hirst-type traps, several automatic systems are currently capable of being used operationally to provide real-time observations at high temporal resolutions. They provide distinct advantages compared to the manual Hirst-type measurements.

Real-time automatic detection of starch particles in ambient air.

Considerable amounts of starch granules can be present in the atmosphere from both natural and anthropogenic sources. The aim of this study is to investigate the variability and potential origin of starch granules in ambient air recorded at six cities situated in a region with dominantly agricultural land use. This is achieved by using a combination of laser spectroscopy bioaerosol measurements with 1 min temporal resolution, traditional volumetric Hirst type bioaerosol sampling and atmospheric modelling. The analysis of wind roses identified potential sources of airborne starch (i.e., cereal grain storage facilities) in the vicinity of all aerobiological stations analysed in this study. The analysis of the CALPUFF dispersion model confirmed that emission of dust from the location of storage towers situated about 2.5 km north of the aerobiological station in Novi Sad is a plausible source of high airborne concentrations of starch granules. This study is important for environmental health since it contributes body of knowledge about sources, emission, and dispersion of airborne starch, known to be involved in phenomena such as thunderstorm-triggered asthma. The presented approach integrates monitoring and modelling, and provides a roadmap for examining a variety of bioaerosols previously considered to be outside the scope of traditional aerobiological measurements.

Why should we care about high temporal resolution monitoring of bioaerosols in ambient air?

This is the first time that atmospheric concentrations of individual pollen types have been recorded by an automatic sampler with 1-hour and sub-hourly resolution (i.e. 1-minute and 1-second data). The data were collected by traditional Hirst type methods and state-of the art Rapid-E real-time bioaerosol detector. Airborne pollen data from 7 taxa, i.e. Acer negundo, Ambrosia, Broussonetia papyrifera, Cupressales (Taxaceae and Cupressaceae families), Platanus, Salix and Ulmus, were collected during the 2019 pollen season in Novi Sad, Serbia. Pollen data with daily, hourly and sub-hourly temporal resolution were analysed in terms of their temporal variability. The impact of turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) on pollen cloud homogeneity was investigated. Variations in Seasonal Pollen Integrals produced by Hirst and Rapid-E show that scaling factors are required to make data comparable. Daily average and hourly measurements recorded by the Rapid-E and Hirst were highly correlated and so examining Rapid-E measurements with sub-hourly resolution is assumed meaningful from the perspective of identification accuracy. Sub-hourly data provided an insight into the heterogenous nature of pollen in the air, with distinct peaks lasting ~5-10 min, and mostly single pollen grains recorded per second. Short term variations in 1-minute pollen concentrations could not be wholly explained by TKE. The new generation of automatic devices has the potential to increase our understanding of the distribution of bioaerosols in the air, provide insights into biological processes such as pollen release and dispersal mechanisms, and have the potential for us to conduct investigations into dose-response relationships and personal exposure to aeroallergens.

Bioaerosols on the atmospheric super highway: An example of long distance transport of Alternaria spores from the Pannonian Plain to Poland.

Alternaria spores are pathogenic to agricultural crops, and the longest and the most severe sporulation seasons are predominantly recorded in rural areas, e.g. the Pannonian Plain (PP) in South-Central Europe. In Poland (Central Europe), airborne Alternaria spore concentrations peak between July and August. In this study, we test the hypothesis that the PP is the source of Alternaria spores recorded in Poland after the main sporulation season (September-October). Airborne Alternaria spores (2005-2019) were collected using volumetric Hirst spore traps located in 38 locations along the potential pathways of air masses, i.e. from Serbia, Romania and Hungary, through the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Ukraine, to Northern Poland. Three potential episodes of Long Distance Transport (LDT) were selected and characterized in detail, including the analysis of Alternaria spore data, back trajectory analysis, dispersal modelling, and description of local weather and mesoscale synoptic conditions. During selected episodes, increases in Alternaria spore concentrations in Poznan were recorded at unusual times that deviated from the typical diurnal pattern, i.e. at night or during morning hours. Alternaria spore concentrations on the PP were very high (>1000 spores/m3) at that time. The presence of non-local Ambrosia pollen, common to the PP, were also observed in the air. Air mass trajectory analysis and dispersal modelling showed that the northwest part of the PP, north of the Transdanubian Mountains, was the potential source area of Alternaria spores. Our results show that Alternaria spores are transported over long distances from the PP to Poland. These spores may markedly increase local exposure to Alternaria spores in the receptor area and pose a risk to both human and plant health. Alternaria spores followed the same atmospheric route as previously described LDT ragweed pollen, revealing the existence of an atmospheric super highway that transports bioaerosols from the south to the north of Europe.

High Ambrosia pollen concentrations in Poland respecting the long distance transport (LDT).

High Ambrosia pollen concentrations in Poland rather rarely come from the local sources. The aim of this study was to define the temporal and spatial differences of the high Ambrosia pollen concentrations by creating models for the pollen transport from the distant sources. This study was thought to determine the direction of the air masses inflow into Poland, carrying Ambrosia pollen, from areas of the bordering countries with the pollen concentrations higher than iSTOTEN_n Poland. Pollen and meteorological datasets at 8 monitoring sites in Poland, and daily pollen concentrations at 11 sites in the Czech Republic, 5 sites in Slovakia and 3 sites in Ukraine were analysed recently. Days with concentrations ≥10 Pollen/m3 and concurrent meteorological situations were analysed in great deal. The HYSPLIT model was applied to compute backward trajectories up to 4 days backward (96 h) and at three altitudes: 20, 500 and 1000 m above ground level (a.g.l.). High pollen concentrations occur most frequently when the air masses inflow into Poland from southerly (S, SE, SW, 44%) and easterly (E, 6%) directions and in no advection situations (25%). In years with the highest frequency of days over 10 Pollen/m3, the prevailing directions of the pollen influx into Poland were from the South (2004-2006, 2008, 2011) but in one year (2014) from the East. Trajectories for the studied period show that air masses come most frequently from Slovakia and the Czech Republic. Sometimes, the Ambrosia pollen transport happens from Ukraine.

Particle size distribution of the major Alternaria alternata allergen, Alt a 1, derived from airborne spores and subspore fragments.

Fungal fragments are abundant immunoreactive bioaerosols that may outnumber the concentrations of intact spores in the air. To investigate the importance of Alternaria fragments as sources of allergens compared to Alternaria spores, we determined the levels of Alternaria spores and Alt a 1 (the major allergen in Alternaria alternata spores) collected on filters within three fractions of particulate matter (PM) of different aerodynamic diameter: (1) PM>10, (diameter>10 µm); (2) PM2.5-10 (2.5-10µm); (3) PM2.5 (0.12-2.5 µm). The airborne particles were collected using a three stage high-volume ChemVol cascade impactor during the Alternaria sporulation season in Poznan, Poland (30 d between 6 July and 22 September 2016). The quantification of Alt a 1 was performed using the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. High concentrations of Alt a 1 were recorded during warm and dry d characterized by high sunshine duration, lack of clouds and high dew point values. Atmospheric concentrations of Alternaria spores correlated significantly (r = 0.930, p < 0.001) with Alt a 1 levels. The highest Alt a 1 was recorded in PM2.5-10 (66.8 % of total Alt a 1), while the lowest in PM2.5 (<1.0 %). Significantly more Alt a 1 per spore (>30 %) was observed in PM2.5-10 than in PM>10. This Alt a 1 excess may be derived from sources other than spores, e.g. hyphal fragments. Overall, in outdoor air the major source of Alt a 1 are intact Alternaria spores, but the impact of other fungal fragments (hyphal parts, broken spores, conidiophores) cannot be neglected, as they may increase the total atmospheric Alt a 1 concentration.

Atmospheric exposure to the major Artemisia pollen allergen (Art v 1): Seasonality, impact of weather, and clinical implications.

Artemisia pollen grains are important aeroallergens worldwide. The amount of allergenic proteins produced by pollen, or pollen allergenicity, is regulated by both genes and the environment. As a result, even closely related plant taxa may release pollen with distinctly different allergen contents. Here, we determined the variability in atmospheric exposure to the major Artemisia pollen allergen, Art v 1, during the pollination seasons of two common species, i.e., A. vulgaris (early flowering species) and A. campestris (late flowering species), in Poznan, Poland (2013-2015). Artemisia pollen grains were collected using Hirst-type volumetric trap, while Art v 1 was collected by a two-stage cascade impactor (PM10 and PM>10 air fractions) and quantified by immunoenzymatic analysis. The results showed that daily Art v 1 levels correlated significantly with mean daily concentrations of Artemisia pollen (from r = 0.426 to r = 0.949, depending on air fraction and peak of the season). Significant differences were observed between 1) the median pollen allergenicity in different seasons (from 2.5 to 4.7 pg Art v 1/pollen) and 2) the median pollen allergenicity in different peak periods of the season (from 1.8 to 6.7 pg Art v 1/pollen). During the late peak (flowering of A. campestris), the median pollen allergenicity was significantly higher (on average by 63%, p < 0.05) than that during A. vulgaris flowering. The highest mean seasonal pollen allergenicity was observed during the wettest season, while the lowest was observed during the driest season (from July-August). In summary, our study showed distinct differences in Artemisia pollen allergenicity, that were not only related to daily and seasonal variability, which may exceed 800% and 80%, respectively but also noticeable when two common Artemisia species were compared. Therefore, we argue that variability in pollen allergenicity (both seasonal and species-specific) should be considered in future studies assessing pollen exposure.

Concomitant occurrence of anthropogenic air pollutants, mineral dust and fungal spores during long-distance transport of ragweed pollen.

Large-scale synoptic conditions are able to transport considerable amounts of airborne particles over entire continents by creating substantial air mass movement. This phenomenon is observed in Europe in relation to highly allergenic ragweed (Ambrosia L.) pollen grains that are transported from populations in Central Europe (mainly the Pannonian Plain and Balkans) to the North. The path taken by atmospheric ragweed pollen often passes through the highly industrialised mining region of Silesia in Southern Poland, considered to be one of the most polluted areas in the EU. It is hypothesized that chemical air pollutants released over Silesia could become mixed with biological material and be transported to less polluted regions further North. We analysed levels of air pollution during episodes of long-distance transport (LDT) of ragweed pollen to Poland. Results show that, concomitantly with pollen, the concentration of air pollutants with potential health-risk, i.e. SO2, and PM10, have also significantly increased (by 104% and 37%, respectively) in the receptor area (Western Poland). Chemical transport modelling (EMEP) and air mass back-trajectory analysis (HYSPLIT) showed that potential sources of PM10 include Silesia, as well as mineral dust from the Ukrainian steppe and the Sahara Desert. In addition, atmospheric concentrations of other allergenic biological particles, i.e. Alternaria Nees ex Fr. spores, also increased markedly (by 115%) during LDT episodes. We suggest that the LDT episodes of ragweed pollen over Europe are not a "one-component" phenomenon, but are often related to elevated levels of chemical air pollutants and other biotic and abiotic components (fungal spores and desert dust).

Detecting distant sources of airborne pollen for Poland: Integrating back-trajectory and dispersion modelling with a satellite-based phenology.

Airborne pollen might be transported over thousands of kilometres, which has important ecological, evolutionary and clinical consequences. The long-distance transport (LDT) of birch (Betula sp.) pollen has been described in detail for northern Europe. However, a comprehensive analysis of this transport from other European regions is lacking. This study focused on the post-seasonal LDT of birch pollen to Poland (central Europe), with special attention paid to determining potential source areas of pollen and describing the causal mechanism favouring LDT episodes. Pollen monitoring (1997-2016) was conducted in Poznan and Rzeszów (500 km away from each other) using volumetric traps. The LDT episodes were characterized by analysing the (1) bi-hourly backward air mass trajectories using the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT); (2) sea level pressure (SLP) and 500 hPa geopotential height (z500) anomalies; and (3) patterns of the Enhanced Vegetation Index to determine the birch flowering time along the moving air mass trajectories. The potential locations of birch populations within broadleaved forests were estimated with GLOBCOVER data. Finally, the movement of pollen emitted from potential source areas was simulated using the HYSPLIT dispersion model. LDT episodes were mainly recorded in the first fortnight of May. The main source areas of pollen to Poland were western Russia, Belarus and to a lesser extent the eastern Baltic republics and the Scandinavian Peninsula. In most cases, a high-pressure centre located over Scandinavia and an elevated z500 over Germany-Denmark-Sweden favoured pollen transport. On average, the post-seasonal LDT episodes of birch pollen to Poland occur almost every year (Poznan) or every second year (Rzeszów). The episodes are highly variable in time; thus, the pollen concentration may unexpectedly cause allergy symptoms in sensitized patients. In some cases, these episodes may be extremely severe, thereby prolonging and strengthening the exposure to birch pollen allergens.

Predicting the onset of Betula pendula flowering in Poznan (Poland) using remote sensing thermal data.

Due to the urban heat island effect, the time of plant pollination might markedly vary within the area of a city. However, existing pollen forecasts do not reflect the spatial variations in the pollen release time within a heterogeneous urban environment. The main objective of this study was to model the spatial pattern of flowering onset (and thus the moment of pollen release) in silver birch (Betula pendula Roth.) in Poznan (Western Poland) using land surface temperature (LST) data and in situ phenological observations. The onset of silver birch flowering was observed at 34 urban and rural sites (973 trees) in Poznan from 2012 to 2014. Forty-four thermal variables were retrieved from MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. To predict the spatio-temporal distribution of B. pendula flowering onset dates in a city, the ordinary and partial least squares, support vector machine and random forest regression models were applied. The models' performance was examined by an internal repeated k-fold cross-validation and external validation with archival phenological data (2010). Birch flowering began significantly earlier in the urban sites compared to the rural sites (from -1.4 days in 2013, to -4.1 days in 2012). The maximum March LST difference between the urban and rural sites reached 2.4 °C in 2013 and 4.5 °C in 2012. The random forest model performed best at validation stage, i.e. the root mean square error between the predicted and observed onset dates was 1.461 days, and the determination coefficient was 0.829. A calibrated model for predicting the timing of flowering in a heterogeneous city area is an important step in developing a fine-scale forecasting system that can directly estimate pollen exposure in places where allergy sufferers live. Importantly, by incorporating only pre-flowering thermal data into the model, location-specific allergy forecasts can be delivered to the public before the actual flowering time.

Temporal variability in the allergenicity of airborne Alternaria spores.

The concentration of fungal spores in the air is traditionally considered as a proxy of allergen exposure. However, in vitro experiments have shown that the allergenicity of Alternaria spores varies depending on ecophysiological and developmental factors. Despite the potential clinical significance of these findings, it has never been verified in outdoor environments. This study, therefore, aims to investigate variability in the amount of the major allergen (Alt a 1) released from Alternaria spores in outdoor air. During the 3-year monitoring study (2014-2016), the median seasonal allergenicity of Alternaria spores exceeded 8.6 × 10-3 pg Alt a 1/spore. The most allergenic spores were collected during the driest and the most polluted season (with respect to seasonal concentrations of ozone, sulphur dioxide, and particulate matter). Within the season, daily spore allergenicity ranged from 2.4 to 34.7 × 10-3 pg Alt a 1/spore (5th-95th percentile). No repeatable effects of weather and pollution on short-term variations in Alternaria spore allergenicity were found. However, during the episodes when high-potency spores were recorded, the air masses arrived from eastern directions. Contrary, the spores with the lowest allergenicity were related to western winds. This suggests that factors such as source area (habitat types) and species diversity could be responsible for the varying exposure to Alternaria allergens. Our findings show that high and low-potency spores are recorded in the air; therefore, the airborne concentrations of fungal spores alone may not be sufficient to provide allergy sufferers and healthcare professionals with information about allergen exposure.

Cross-sensitization to Artemisia and Ambrosia pollen allergens in an area located outside of the current distribution range of Ambrosia.

INTRODUCTION: The role of long-distance transported (LDT) Ambrosia pollen in inducing new sensitization and affecting sensitization rates in Artemisia-sensitized patients is unclear. AIM: The aim of this study was to estimate the degree of cross-sensitization to Ambrosia/Artemisia allergens in citizens of Poznan (Western Poland). This area is covered by extensive Artemisia populations but does not currently have local Ambrosia populations. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Sera of 119 patients were tested by fluoroenzyme immunoassay (CAP-FEIA system) against pollen allergen extracts of Artemisia vulgaris and Ambrosia artemisiifolia, an allergenic component of A. vulgaris (nArt v 1), and an allergenic component of A. artemisiifolia (nAmb a 1). Skin prick tests (SPTs, n = 86) were performed with pollen allergen extracts of A. vulgaris and A. artemisiifolia. Artemisia and Ambrosia pollen in ambient air was collected (1996-2013) by a Hirst type volumetric trap sited at roof level (33 m). RESULTS: The SPT showed that the prevalence of sensitization to Ambrosia and Artemisia pollen exceeded 3.5%, and 10.5%, respectively. The measurements of IgE in blood serum (CAP-FEIA) revealed that among Ambrosia-sensitized patients 90.1% (20/22 patients) were concomitantly sensitized to Artemisia. 59.1% (13/22) of these patients reacted to nArt v 1, suggesting primary sensitization to Artemisia pollen. Only 2 (9.1%) patients were mono-sensitized to Ambrosia pollen extract, but surprisingly not to nAmb a 1. CONCLUSIONS: The LDT Ambrosia pollen had a negligible effect on the rate of sensitization to Ambrosia allergens in Poznan and did not increase the prevalence of sensitization to Artemisia pollen in this region. However, the majority of patients showing hypersensitization to Artemisia pollen might also present symptoms during elevated episodes of LDT of Ambrosia pollen.

Masting in wind-pollinated trees: system-specific roles of weather and pollination dynamics in driving seed production.

Masting, the highly variable production of synchronized large seed crops, is a common reproductive strategy in plant populations. In wind-pollinated trees, flowering and pollination dynamics are hypothesized to provide the mechanistic link for the well-known relationship between weather and population-level seed production. Several hypotheses make predictions about the effect of weather on annual pollination success. The pollen coupling hypothesis predicts that weather and plant resources drive the flowering effort of trees, which directly translates into the size of seed crops through efficient pollination. In contrast, the pollination Moran effect hypothesis predicts that weather affects pollination efficiency, leading to occasional bumper crops. Furthermore, the recently formulated phenology synchrony hypothesis predicts that Moran effects can arise because of weather effects on flowering synchrony, which, in turn, drives pollination efficiency. We investigated the relationship between weather, airborne pollen, and seed production in common European trees, two oak species (Quercus petraea and Q. robur) and beech (Fagus sylvatica) with a 19-yr data set from three sites in Poland. Our results show that warm summers preceding flowering correlated with high pollen abundance and warm springs resulted in short pollen seasons (i.e., high flowering synchrony) for all three species. Pollen abundance was the best predictor for seed crops in beech, as predicted under pollen coupling. In oaks, short pollen seasons, rather than pollen abundance, correlated with large seed crops, providing support for the pollination Moran effect and phenology synchrony hypotheses. Fundamentally different mechanisms may therefore drive masting in species of the family Fagacae.

Forecasting model of Corylus, Alnus, and Betula pollen concentration levels using spatiotemporal correlation properties of pollen count.

The aim of the study was to create and evaluate models for predicting high levels of daily pollen concentration of Corylus, Alnus, and Betula using a spatiotemporal correlation of pollen count. For each taxon, a high pollen count level was established according to the first allergy symptoms during exposure. The dataset was divided into a training set and a test set, using a stratified random split. For each taxon and city, the model was built using a random forest method. Corylus models performed poorly. However, the study revealed the possibility of predicting with substantial accuracy the occurrence of days with high pollen concentrations of Alnus and Betula using past pollen count data from monitoring sites. These results can be used for building (1) simpler models, which require data only from aerobiological monitoring sites, and (2) combined meteorological and aerobiological models for predicting high levels of pollen concentration.

Flowering phenology and potential pollen emission of three Artemisia species in relation to airborne pollen data in Poznan (Western Poland).

Artemisia pollen is an important allergen in Europe. In Poznan (Western Poland), three Artemisia species, A. vulgaris, A. campestris and A. absinthium, are widely distributed. However, the contributions of these species to the total airborne pollen are unknown. The aim of the study was to determine the flowering phenology and pollen production of the three abovementioned species and to construct a model of potential Artemisia pollen emission in the study area. Phenological observations were conducted in 2012 at six sites in Poznan using a BBCH phenological scale. Pollen production was estimated by counting the pollen grains per flower and recalculating the totals per inflorescence, plant and population in the study area. Airborne pollen concentrations were obtained using a Hirst-type volumetric trap located in the study area. Artemisia vulgaris began to flower the earliest, followed by A. absinthium and then A. campestris. The flowering of A. vulgaris corresponded to the first peak in the airborne pollen level, and the flowering of A. campestris coincided with the second pollen peak. The highest amounts of pollen per single plant were produced by A. vulgaris and A. absinthium. A. campestris produced considerably less pollen, however, due to its common occurrence, it contributed markedly (30 %) to the summation of total of recorded pollen. A. vulgaris is the most important pollen source in Poznan, but the roles of two other Artemisia species cannot be ignored. In particular, A. campestris should be considered as an important pollen contributor and likely might be one of the main causes of allergic reactions during late summer.

The long distance transport of airborne Ambrosia pollen to the UK and the Netherlands from Central and south Europe.

The invasive alien species Ambrosia artemisiifolia (common or short ragweed) is increasing its range in Europe. In the UK and the Netherlands, airborne concentrations of Ambrosia pollen are usually low. However, more than 30 Ambrosia pollen grains per cubic metre of air (above the level capable to trigger allergic symptoms) were recorded in Leicester (UK) and Leiden (NL) on 4 and 5 September 2014. The aims of this study were to determine whether the highly allergenic Ambrosia pollen recorded during the episode could be the result of long distance transport, to identify the potential sources of these pollen grains and to describe the conditions that facilitated this possible long distance transport. Airborne Ambrosia pollen data were collected at 10 sites in Europe. Back trajectory and atmospheric dispersion calculations were performed using HYSPLIT_4. Back trajectories calculated at Leicester and Leiden show that higher altitude air masses (1500 m) originated from source areas on the Pannonian Plain and Ukraine. During the episode, air masses veered to the west and passed over the Rhône Valley. Dispersion calculations showed that the atmospheric conditions were suitable for Ambrosia pollen released from the Pannonian Plain and the Rhône Valley to reach the higher levels and enter the airstream moving to northwest Europe where they were deposited at ground level and recorded by monitoring sites. The study indicates that the Ambrosia pollen grains recorded during the episode in Leicester and Leiden were probably not produced by local sources but transported long distances from potential source regions in east Europe, i.e. the Pannonian Plain and Ukraine, as well as the Rhône Valley in France.

Risk of exposure to airborne Ambrosia pollen from local and distant sources in Europe - an example from Denmark.

BACKGROUND: Ambrosia artemisiifolia L. is a noxious invasive alien species in Europe. It is an important aeroallergen and millions of people are exposed to its pollen. OBJECTIVE: The main aim of this study is to show that atmospheric concentrations of Ambrosia pollen recorded in Denmark can be derived from local or more distant sources. METHODS: This was achieved by using a combination of pollen measurements, air mass trajectory calculations using the HYPLIT model and mapping all known Ambrosia locations in Denmark and relating them to land cover types. RESULTS: The annual pollen index recorded in Copenhagen during a 15-year period varied from a few pollen grains to more than 100. Since 2005, small quantities of Ambrosia pollen has been observed in the air every year. We have demonstrated, through a combination of Lagrangian back-trajectory calculations and atmospheric pollen measurements, that pollen arrived in Denmark via long-distance transport from centres of Ambrosia infection, such as the Pannonian Plain and Ukraine. Combining observations with results from a local scale dispersion model show that it is possible that Ambrosia pollen could be derived from local sources identified within Denmark. CONCLUSIONS: The high allergenic capacity of Ambrosia pollen means that only small amounts of pollen are relevant for allergy sufferers, and just a few plants will be sufficient to produce enough pollen to affect pollen allergy sufferers within a short distance from the source. It is necessary to adopt control measures to restrict Ambrosia numbers. Recommendations for the removal of all Ambrosia plants can effectively reduce the amount of local pollen, as long as the population of Ambrosia plants is small.