Association between substituting macronutrients and all-cause mortality: a network meta-analysis of prospective observational studies.

Background: Suboptimal diet quality is a key risk factor for premature death. Assuming relatively stable energy intake among individuals, changes in nutrient intakes occur by exchanging different nutrients. Therefore we aimed to examine the association of isocaloric substitution of dietary (macro)nutrients with all-cause mortality using network meta-analysis (NMA). Methods: For this systematic review and NMA of prospective observational studies MEDLINE, Embase, and Scopus were searched from inception to February 13th, 2024. Eligible studies reported substitution analyses for quantity and/or quality of macronutrients, including carbohydrates, proteins, and fatty acids on all-cause mortality. Random-effects NMA were used in order to evaluate the pooled hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of substituting each included nutrient with another. We assessed risk of bias with the ROBINS-E tool, and the certainty of evidence (CoE) using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluations (GRADE) approach. This study is registered with PROSPERO (CRD42023450706). Findings: Thirty-nine studies with 1,737,644 participants, 395,491 deaths, 297 direct comparisons, and seven nutrient-specific networks were included. Moderate CoE was found for an association with lower mortality risk when replacing 5% of energy intake from carbohydrates with polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA; HR: 0.90; 95%CI: 0.84, 0.95), n-6 PUFA (0.85; 0.77, 0.94), n-3 PUFA (0.72; 0.59, 0.86), and plant monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFA; 0.90; 0.85, 0.95), and when replacing 5% of energy from saturated fatty acids (SFA) and trans-fatty acids (TFA), with PUFA, MUFA, and plant-MUFA (HRrange: 0.75 to 0.91). A lower mortality risk was additionally found when 5% of animal-MUFA was replaced with plant-MUFA, and when replacing animal protein, and SFA with plant protein (HRrange: 0.81 to 0.87, moderate CoE). Interpretation: Our results provide practical knowledge for public health professionals and can inform upcoming dietary guidelines. The beneficial association of increasing PUFA (both n-3 and n-6) and (plant-) MUFA intake while reducing carbohydrates, SFA and TFA, along with replacing animal protein and animal-MUFA with plant-based sources of protein and fat (MUFA) on the all-cause mortality risk, underscores the importance of plant-based dietary recommendations. Funding: None.

Integration of epidemiological and blood biomarker analysis links haem iron intake to increased type 2 diabetes risk.

Dietary haem iron intake is linked to an increased risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D), but the underlying plasma biomarkers are not well understood. We analysed data from 204,615 participants (79% females) in three large US cohorts over up to 36 years, examining the associations between iron intake and T2D risk. We also assessed plasma metabolic biomarkers and metabolomic profiles in subsets of 37,544 (82% females) and 9,024 (84% females) participants, respectively. Here we show that haem iron intake but not non-haem iron is associated with a higher T2D risk, with a multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio of 1.26 (95% confidence interval 1.20-1.33; P for trend <0.001) comparing the highest to the lowest quintiles. Haem iron accounts for significant proportions of the T2D risk linked to unprocessed red meat and specific dietary patterns. Increased haem iron intake correlates with unfavourable plasma profiles of insulinaemia, lipids, inflammation and T2D-linked metabolites. We also identify metabolites, including L-valine and uric acid, potentially mediating the haem iron-T2D relationship, highlighting their pivotal role in T2D pathogenesis.

Planetary Health Diet Index and risk of total and cause-specific mortality in three prospective cohorts.

BACKGROUND: In 2019, the EAT-Lancet Commission proposed a healthy dietary pattern that, along with reductions in food waste and improved agricultural practices, could feed the increasing global population sustainably. We developed a Planetary Health Diet Index (PHDI) to quantify adherence to the EAT-Lancet reference diet. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to assess associations between PHDI and total and cause-specific mortality in 3 prospective cohorts of males and females in the United States. METHODS: We followed 66,692 females from the Nurses' Health Study (1986-2019), 92,438 females from the Nurses' Health Study II (1989-2019), and 47,274 males from the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (1986-2018) who were free of cancer, diabetes, and major cardiovascular diseases at baseline. The PHDI was calculated every 4 y using a semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire. Hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using multivariable proportional-hazards models. RESULTS: During follow-up, we documented 31,330 deaths among females and 23,206 among males. When comparing the highest with the lowest quintile of PHDI, the pooled multivariable-adjusted HRs were 0.77 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.75, 0.80] for all-cause mortality (P-trend < 0.0001). The PHDI was associated with lower risk of deaths from cardiovascular diseases (HR: 0.86; 95% CI: 0.81, 0.91), cancer (HR: 0.90; 95% CI: 0.85, 0.95), respiratory diseases (HR: 0.53; 95% CI: 0.48, 0.59), and neurodegenerative diseases (HR: 0.72; 95% CI: 0.67, 0.78). In females, but not males, the PHDI was also significantly associated with a lower risk of deaths from infectious diseases (HR: 0.62; 95% CI: 0.51, 0.76). PHDI scores were also associated inversely with greenhouse gas emissions and other environmental impacts. CONCLUSIONS: In 3 large United States-based prospective cohorts of males and females with up to 34 y of follow-up, a higher PHDI was associated with lower risk of total and cause-specific mortality and environment impacts.

Lipidome changes due to improved dietary fat quality inform cardiometabolic risk reduction and precision nutrition.

Current cardiometabolic disease prevention guidelines recommend increasing dietary unsaturated fat intake while reducing saturated fats. Here we use lipidomics data from a randomized controlled dietary intervention trial to construct a multilipid score (MLS), summarizing the effects of replacing saturated fat with unsaturated fat on 45 lipid metabolite concentrations. In the EPIC-Potsdam cohort, a difference in the MLS, reflecting better dietary fat quality, was associated with a significant reduction in the incidence of cardiovascular disease (-32%; 95% confidence interval (95% CI): -21% to -42%) and type 2 diabetes (-26%; 95% CI: -15% to -35%). We built a closely correlated simplified score, reduced MLS (rMLS), and observed that beneficial rMLS changes, suggesting improved dietary fat quality over 10 years, were associated with lower diabetes risk (odds ratio per standard deviation of 0.76; 95% CI: 0.59 to 0.98) in the Nurses' Health Study. Furthermore, in the PREDIMED trial, an olive oil-rich Mediterranean diet intervention primarily reduced diabetes incidence among participants with unfavorable preintervention rMLS levels, suggestive of disturbed lipid metabolism before intervention. Our findings indicate that the effects of dietary fat quality on the lipidome can contribute to a more precise understanding and possible prediction of the health outcomes of specific dietary fat modifications.

Secular Trends in Adherence to Healthy Behaviors Among US Adults with Diabetes, 1999-2018.

Adherence to healthy lifestyle is essential for diabetes management in light of the plateaued metabolic control, diversifying causes of death, and continued excess mortality among people with diabetes (PWD). This study aims to assess the secular trend of adherence to healthy behaviors among PWD in NHANES, a nationally representative survey of Americans using a stratified, multistage probability design in 2-year cycles since 1999. Adherence to healthy lifestyle was estimated using never smoking, moderate drinking, adequate physical activity, and healthy diet, and the score ranged 0-4. Among 7410 participants, adherence to healthy behaviors across time slightly increased from 1.4 (95% CI, 1.3 to 1.5) in 1999-2002 to 1.6 (1.5 to 1.8) in 2015-2018 (Ptrend = 0.002). The non-Hispanic Blacks caught up with the non-Hispanic Whites in overall lifestyle score (1.7 vs. 1.6 in 2015-2018), while large socioeconomic disparities remained in that participants with higher income and education level, and covered by health insurance were more likely to have adherence to healthy behaviors. As the metabolic control plateaued and causes of death have diversified among PWD, our findings suggested a great potential of lifestyle modification in facilitating the long-term health of these patients.

Consumption of Olive Oil and Diet Quality and Risk of Dementia-Related Death.

Importance: Age-standardized dementia mortality rates are on the rise. Whether long-term consumption of olive oil and diet quality are associated with dementia-related death is unknown. Objective: To examine the association of olive oil intake with the subsequent risk of dementia-related death and assess the joint association with diet quality and substitution for other fats. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prospective cohort study examined data from the Nurses' Health Study (NHS; 1990-2018) and Health Professionals Follow-Up Study (HPFS; 1990-2018). The population included women from the NHS and men from the HPFS who were free of cardiovascular disease and cancer at baseline. Data were analyzed from May 2022 to July 2023. Exposures: Olive oil intake was assessed every 4 years using a food frequency questionnaire and categorized as (1) never or less than once per month, (2) greater than 0 to less than or equal to 4.5 g/d, (3) greater than 4.5 g/d to less than or equal to 7 g/d, and (4) greater than 7 g/d. Diet quality was based on the Alternative Healthy Eating Index and Mediterranean Diet score. Main Outcome and Measure: Dementia death was ascertained from death records. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regressions were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs adjusted for confounders including genetic, sociodemographic, and lifestyle factors. Results: Of 92 383 participants, 60 582 (65.6%) were women and the mean (SD) age was 56.4 (8.0) years. During 28 years of follow-up (2 183 095 person-years), 4751 dementia-related deaths occurred. Individuals who were homozygous for the apolipoprotein ε4 (APOE ε4) allele were 5 to 9 times more likely to die with dementia. Consuming at least 7 g/d of olive oil was associated with a 28% lower risk of dementia-related death (adjusted pooled HR, 0.72 [95% CI, 0.64-0.81]) compared with never or rarely consuming olive oil (P for trend < .001); results were consistent after further adjustment for APOE ε4. No interaction by diet quality scores was found. In modeled substitution analyses, replacing 5 g/d of margarine and mayonnaise with the equivalent amount of olive oil was associated with an 8% (95% CI, 4%-12%) to 14% (95% CI, 7%-20%) lower risk of dementia mortality. Substitutions for other vegetable oils or butter were not significant. Conclusions and Relevance: In US adults, higher olive oil intake was associated with a lower risk of dementia-related mortality, irrespective of diet quality. Beyond heart health, the findings extend the current dietary recommendations of choosing olive oil and other vegetable oils for cognitive-related health.

Plasma metabolites of a healthy lifestyle in relation to mortality and longevity: Four prospective US cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: A healthy lifestyle is associated with a lower premature mortality risk and with longer life expectancy. However, the metabolic pathways of a healthy lifestyle and how they relate to mortality and longevity are unclear. We aimed to identify and replicate a healthy lifestyle metabolomic signature and examine how it is related to total and cause-specific mortality risk and longevity. METHODS: In four large cohorts with 13,056 individuals and 28-year follow-up, we assessed five healthy lifestyle factors, used liquid chromatography mass spectrometry to profile plasma metabolites, and ascertained deaths with death certificates. The unique healthy lifestyle metabolomic signature was identified using an elastic regression. Multivariable Cox regressions were used to assess associations of the signature with mortality and longevity. FINDINGS: The identified healthy lifestyle metabolomic signature was reflective of lipid metabolism pathways. Shorter and more saturated triacylglycerol and diacylglycerol metabolite sets were inversely associated with the healthy lifestyle score, whereas cholesteryl ester and phosphatidylcholine plasmalogen sets were positively associated. Participants with a higher healthy lifestyle metabolomic signature had a 17% lower risk of all-cause mortality, 19% for cardiovascular disease mortality, and 17% for cancer mortality and were 25% more likely to reach longevity. The healthy lifestyle metabolomic signature explained 38% of the association between the self-reported healthy lifestyle score and total mortality risk and 49% of the association with longevity. CONCLUSIONS: This study identifies a metabolomic signature that measures adherence to a healthy lifestyle and shows prediction of total and cause-specific mortality and longevity. FUNDING: This work was funded by the NIH, CIHR, AHA, Novo Nordisk Foundation, and SciLifeLab.

Lifetime Duration of Breastfeeding and Cardiovascular Risk in Women With Type 2 Diabetes or a History of Gestational Diabetes: Findings From Two Large Prospective Cohorts.

OBJECTIVE: Breastfeeding duration is inversely associated with risks of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and type 2 diabetes in parous women. However, the association among women at high risk, including women with type 2 diabetes or gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is unclear. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We included 15,146 parous women with type 2 diabetes from the Nurses' Health Study I and II (NHS, NHS II) and 4,537 women with a history of GDM from NHS II. Participants reported history of breastfeeding via follow-up questionnaires. Incident CVD by 2017 comprised stroke or coronary heart disease (CHD) (myocardial infarction, coronary revascularization). Adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) and 95% CIs were estimated using Cox models. RESULTS: We documented 1,159 incident CVD cases among women with type 2 diabetes in both cohorts during 188,874 person-years of follow-up and 132 incident CVD cases among women with a GDM history during 100,218 person-years of follow-up. Longer lifetime duration of breastfeeding was significantly associated with lower CVD risk among women with type 2 diabetes, with pooled aHR of 0.68 (95% CI 0.54-0.85) for >18 months versus 0 months and 0.94 (0.91-0.98) per 6-month increment in breastfeeding. Similar associations were observed with CHD (pooled aHR 0.93 [0.88-0.97]) but not with stroke (0.96 [0.91-1.02]) per 6-month increment in breastfeeding. Among women with GDM history, >18 months versus 0 months of breastfeeding was associated with an aHR of 0.49 (0.28-0.86) for total CVD. CONCLUSIONS: Longer duration of breastfeeding was associated with lower risk of CVD in women with type 2 diabetes or GDM.

Sugar-sweetened or artificially-sweetened beverage consumption, physical activity, and risk of cardiovascular disease in adults: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Whether physical activity could mitigate the adverse impacts of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) or artificially sweetened beverages (ASBs) on incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains uncertain. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to examine the independent and joint associations between SSB or ASB consumption and physical activity and risk of CVD, defined as fatal and nonfatal coronary artery disease and stroke, in adults from 2 United States-based prospective cohort studies. METHODS: Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs between SSB or ASB intake and physical activity with incident CVD among 65,730 females in the Nurses' Health Study (1980-2016) and 39,418 males in the Health Professional's Follow-up Study (1986-2016), who were free from chronic diseases at baseline. SSBs and ASBs were assessed every 4-y and physical activity biannually. RESULTS: A total of 13,269 CVD events were ascertained during 3,001,213 person-years of follow-up. Compared with those who never/rarely consumed SSBs or ASBs, the HR for CVD for participants consuming ≥2 servings/d was 1.21 (95% CI: 1.12, 1.32; P-trend < 0.001) for SSBs and 1.03 (95% CI: 0.97, 1.09; P-trend = 0.06) for those consuming ≥2 servings/d of ASBs. The HR for CVD per 1 serving increment of SSB per day was 1.18 (95% CI: 1.10, 1.26) and 1.12 (95% CI: 1.04, 1.20) for participants meeting and not meeting physical activity guidelines (≥7.5 compared with <7.5 MET h/wk), respectively. Compared with participants who met physical activity guidelines and never/rarely consumed SSBs, the HR for CVD was 1.47 (95% CI: 1.37, 1.57) for participants not meeting physical activity guidelines and consuming ≥2 servings/wk of SSBs. No significant associations were observed for ASB when stratified by physical activity. CONCLUSIONS: Higher SSB intake was associated with CVD risk regardless of physical activity levels. These results support current recommendations to limit the intake of SSBs even for physically active individuals.

Plasma metabolite profile of legume consumption and future risk of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease.

BACKGROUND: Legume consumption has been linked to a reduced risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) and cardiovascular disease (CVD), while the potential association between plasma metabolites associated with legume consumption and the risk of cardiometabolic diseases has never been explored. Therefore, we aimed to identify a metabolite signature of legume consumption, and subsequently investigate its potential association with the incidence of T2D and CVD. METHODS: The current cross-sectional and longitudinal analysis was conducted in 1833 PREDIMED study participants (mean age 67 years, 57.6% women) with available baseline metabolomic data. A subset of these participants with 1-year follow-up metabolomics data (n = 1522) was used for internal validation. Plasma metabolites were assessed through liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. Cross-sectional associations between 382 different known metabolites and legume consumption were performed using elastic net regression. Associations between the identified metabolite profile and incident T2D and CVD were estimated using multivariable Cox regression models. RESULTS: Specific metabolic signatures of legume consumption were identified, these included amino acids, cortisol, and various classes of lipid metabolites including diacylglycerols, triacylglycerols, plasmalogens, sphingomyelins and other metabolites. Among these identified metabolites, 22 were negatively and 18 were positively associated with legume consumption. After adjustment for recognized risk factors and legume consumption, the identified legume metabolite profile was inversely associated with T2D incidence (hazard ratio (HR) per 1 SD: 0.75, 95% CI 0.61-0.94; p = 0.017), but not with CVD incidence risk (1.01, 95% CI 0.86-1.19; p = 0.817) over the follow-up period. CONCLUSIONS: This study identified a set of 40 metabolites associated with legume consumption and with a reduced risk of T2D development in a Mediterranean population at high risk of cardiovascular disease. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN35739639.

High-density lipoprotein functionality, cardiovascular health, and patterns of alcohol consumption: new insights and future perspectives.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) pose a significant public health challenge, contributing to 422 million disability-adjusted life years in 2021. The role of high-density lipoproteins (HDL) and alcohol consumption, one of their major modifiable determinants, remains controversial. The objective of this review is to provide a comprehensive narrative overview of HDL functionality and its predictive value for CVD in relation to patterns of alcohol consumption. RECENT FINDINGS: HDL phenotypes beyond HDL-cholesterol (HDL-c) such as distribution of HDL subspecies, HDL particle abundance, and reverse cholesterol transport capacity are promising indicators of atherosclerotic CVD risk. Low-to-moderate alcohol consumption seems to improve HDL functionality and reduce the incidence of CVD among primarily middle-aged men and postmenopausal women. Advancements in our understanding of HDL biogenesis, structure, and function hold promise for improving HDL-related measures and their predictive value for cardiovascular health. SUMMARY: Low-to-moderate alcohol consumption appears to not only increase HDL-c concentration found in the HDL fraction of plasma but also enhance HDL functionality, providing insights into the underlying mechanisms linking alcohol exposure and cardiovascular health benefits. However, rigorous, well designed intervention trials of alcohol consumption on hard cardiovascular outcomes are needed to identify robust causal associations of HDL phenotypes and alcohol consumption with cardiovascular risk.

Plasma metabolite predictors of metabolic syndrome incidence and reversion.

BACKGROUND: Metabolic Syndrome (MetS) is a progressive pathophysiological state defined by a cluster of cardiometabolic traits. However, little is known about metabolites that may be predictors of MetS incidence or reversion. Our objective was to identify plasma metabolites associated with MetS incidence or MetS reversion. METHODS: The study included 1468 participants without cardiovascular disease (CVD) but at high CVD risk at enrollment from two case-cohort studies nested within the PREvención con DIeta MEDiterránea (PREDIMED) study with baseline metabolomics data. MetS was defined in accordance with the harmonized International Diabetes Federation and the American Heart Association/National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute criteria, which include meeting 3 or more thresholds for waist circumference, triglyceride, HDL cholesterol, blood pressure, and fasting blood glucose. MetS incidence was defined by not having MetS at baseline but meeting the MetS criteria at a follow-up visit. MetS reversion was defined by MetS at baseline but not meeting MetS criteria at a follow-up visit. Plasma metabolome was profiled by LC-MS. Multivariable-adjusted Cox regression models and elastic net regularized regressions were used to assess the association of 385 annotated metabolites with MetS incidence and MetS reversion after adjusting for potential risk factors. RESULTS: Of the 603 participants without baseline MetS, 298 developed MetS over the median 4.8-year follow-up. Of the 865 participants with baseline MetS, 285 experienced MetS reversion. A total of 103 and 88 individual metabolites were associated with MetS incidence and MetS reversion, respectively, after adjusting for confounders and false discovery rate correction. A metabolomic signature comprised of 77 metabolites was robustly associated with MetS incidence (HR: 1.56 (95 % CI: 1.33-1.83)), and a metabolomic signature of 83 metabolites associated with MetS reversion (HR: 1.44 (95 % CI: 1.25-1.67)), both p < 0.001. The MetS incidence and reversion signatures included several lipids (mainly glycerolipids and glycerophospholipids) and branched-chain amino acids. CONCLUSION: We identified unique metabolomic signatures, primarily comprised of lipids (including glycolipids and glycerophospholipids) and branched-chain amino acids robustly associated with MetS incidence; and several amino acids and glycerophospholipids associated with MetS reversion. These signatures provide novel insights on potential distinct mechanisms underlying the conditions leading to the incidence or reversion of MetS.

Olive oil consumption, plasma metabolites, and risk of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease.

BACKGROUND: Olive oil consumption has been inversely associated with the risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) and cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, the impact of olive oil consumption on plasma metabolites remains poorly understood. This study aims to identify plasma metabolites related to total and specific types of olive oil consumption, and to assess the prospective associations of the identified multi-metabolite profiles with the risk of T2D and CVD. METHODS: The discovery population included 1837 participants at high cardiovascular risk from the PREvención con DIeta MEDiterránea (PREDIMED) trial with available metabolomics data at baseline. Olive oil consumption was determined through food-frequency questionnaires (FFQ) and adjusted for total energy. A total of 1522 participants also had available metabolomics data at year 1 and were used as the internal validation sample. Plasma metabolomics analyses were performed using LC-MS. Cross-sectional associations between 385 known candidate metabolites and olive oil consumption were assessed using elastic net regression analysis. A 10-cross-validation (CV) procedure was used, and Pearson correlation coefficients were assessed between metabolite-weighted models and FFQ-derived olive oil consumption in each pair of training-validation data sets within the discovery sample. We further estimated the prospective associations of the identified plasma multi-metabolite profile with incident T2D and CVD using multivariable Cox regression models. RESULTS: We identified a metabolomic signature for the consumption of total olive oil (with 74 metabolites), VOO (with 78 metabolites), and COO (with 17 metabolites), including several lipids, acylcarnitines, and amino acids. 10-CV Pearson correlation coefficients between total olive oil consumption derived from FFQs and the multi-metabolite profile were 0.40 (95% CI 0.37, 0.44) and 0.27 (95% CI 0.22, 0.31) for the discovery and validation sample, respectively. We identified several overlapping and distinct metabolites according to the type of olive oil consumed. The baseline metabolite profiles of total and extra virgin olive oil were inversely associated with CVD incidence (HR per 1SD: 0.79; 95% CI 0.67, 0.92 for total olive oil and 0.70; 0.59, 0.83 for extra virgin olive oil) after adjustment for confounders. However, no significant associations were observed between these metabolite profiles and T2D incidence. CONCLUSIONS: This study reveals a panel of plasma metabolites linked to the consumption of total and specific types of olive oil. The metabolite profiles of total olive oil consumption and extra virgin olive oil were associated with a decreased risk of incident CVD in a high cardiovascular-risk Mediterranean population, though no associations were observed with T2D incidence. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The PREDIMED trial was registered at ISRCTN ( http://www.isrctn.com/ , ISRCTN35739639).

Impact of individual and environmental factors on dietary or lifestyle interventions to prevent type 2 diabetes development: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: The variability in the effectiveness of type 2 diabetes (T2D) preventive interventions highlights the potential to identify the factors that determine treatment responses and those that would benefit the most from a given intervention. We conducted a systematic review to synthesize the evidence to support whether sociodemographic, clinical, behavioral, and molecular factors modify the efficacy of dietary or lifestyle interventions to prevent T2D. METHODS: We searched MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane databases for studies reporting on the effect of a lifestyle, dietary pattern, or dietary supplement interventions on the incidence of T2D and reporting the results stratified by any effect modifier. We extracted relevant statistical findings and qualitatively synthesized the evidence for each modifier based on the direction of findings reported in available studies. We used the Diabetes Canada Clinical Practice Scale to assess the certainty of the evidence for a given effect modifier. RESULTS: The 81 publications that met our criteria for inclusion are from 33 unique trials. The evidence is low to very low to attribute variability in intervention effectiveness to individual characteristics such as age, sex, BMI, race/ethnicity, socioeconomic status, baseline behavioral factors, or genetic predisposition. CONCLUSIONS: We report evidence, albeit low certainty, that those with poorer health status, particularly those with prediabetes at baseline, tend to benefit more from T2D prevention strategies compared to healthier counterparts. Our synthesis highlights the need for purposefully designed clinical trials to inform whether individual factors influence the success of T2D prevention strategies.

Clinical trials to prevent development of type 2 diabetes (T2D) that test dietary and lifestyle interventions have resulted in different results for different study participants. We hypothesized that the differing responses could be because of different personal, social and inherited factors. We searched different databases containing details of published research studies investigating this to look at the effect of these factors on prevention of the development of T2D. We found a small amount of evidence suggesting that those with poorer health, particularly those with a higher amount of sugar in their blood, tend to benefit more from T2D prevention strategies compared to healthier counterparts. Our results suggest that further clinical trials that are designed to examine the effect of personal and social factors on interventions for T2D prevention are needed to better determine the impact of these factors on the success of diet and lifestyle interventions for T2D.

Portfolio Diet Score and Risk of Cardiovascular Disease: Findings From 3 Prospective Cohort Studies.

BACKGROUND: The plant-based Portfolio dietary pattern includes recognized cholesterol-lowering foods (ie, plant protein, nuts, viscous fiber, phytosterols, and plant monounsaturated fats) shown to improve several cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors in randomized controlled trials. However, there is limited evidence on the role of long-term adherence to the diet and CVD risk. The primary objective was to examine the relationship between the Portfolio Diet Score (PDS) and the risk of total CVD, coronary heart disease (CHD), and stroke. METHODS: We prospectively followed 73 924 women in the Nurses' Health Study (1984-2016), 92 346 women in the Nurses' Health Study II (1991-2017), and 43 970 men in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (1986-2016) without CVD or cancer at baseline. Diet was assessed using validated food frequency questionnaires at baseline and every 4 years using a PDS that positively ranks plant protein (legumes), nuts and seeds, viscous fiber sources, phytosterols (mg/day), and plant monounsaturated fat sources, and negatively ranks foods high in saturated fat and cholesterol. RESULTS: During up to 30 years of follow-up, 16 917 incident CVD cases, including 10 666 CHD cases and 6473 strokes, were documented. After multivariable adjustment for lifestyle factors and a modified Alternate Healthy Eating Index (excluding overlapping components), comparing the highest with the lowest quintile, participants with a higher PDS had a lower risk of total CVD (pooled hazard ratio [HR], 0.86 [95% CI, 0.81-0.92]; Ptrend<0.001), CHD (pooled HR, 0.86 [95% CI, 0.80-0.93]; Ptrend=0.0001), and stroke (pooled HR, 0.86 [95% CI, 0.78-0.95]; Ptrend=0.0003). In addition, a 25-percentile higher PDS was associated with a lower risk of total CVD (pooled HR, 0.92 [95% CI, 0.89-0.95]), CHD (pooled HR, 0.92 [95% CI, 0.88-0.95]), and stroke (pooled HR, 0.92 [95% CI, 0.87-0.96]). Results remained consistent across sensitivity and most subgroup analyses, and there was no evidence of departure from linearity for CVD, CHD, or stroke. In a subset of participants, a higher PDS was associated with a more favorable blood lipid and inflammatory profile. CONCLUSIONS: The PDS was associated with a lower risk of CVD, including CHD and stroke, and a more favorable blood lipid and inflammatory profile, in 3 large prospective cohorts.

Chronotype, Unhealthy Lifestyle, and Diabetes Risk in Middle-Aged U.S. Women : A Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Evening chronotype may promote adherence to an unhealthy lifestyle and increase type 2 diabetes risk. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the role of modifiable lifestyle behaviors in the association between chronotype and diabetes risk. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Nurses' Health Study II. PARTICIPANTS: 63 676 nurses aged 45 to 62 years with no history of cancer, cardiovascular disease, or diabetes in 2009 were prospectively followed until 2017. MEASUREMENTS: Self-reported chronotype using a validated question from the Morningness-Eveningness Questionnaire. The lifestyle behaviors that were measured were diet quality, physical activity, alcohol intake, body mass index (BMI), smoking, and sleep duration. Incident diabetes cases were self-reported and confirmed using a supplementary questionnaire. RESULTS: Participants reporting a "definite evening" chronotype were 54% (95% CI, 49% to 59%) more likely to have an unhealthy lifestyle than participants reporting a "definite morning" chronotype. A total of 1925 diabetes cases were documented over 469 120 person-years of follow-up. Compared with the "definite morning" chronotype, the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for diabetes was 1.21 (CI, 1.09 to 1.35) for the "intermediate" chronotype and 1.72 (CI, 1.50 to 1.98) for the "definite evening" chronotype after adjustment for sociodemographic factors, shift work, and family history of diabetes. Further adjustment for BMI, physical activity, and diet quality attenuated the association comparing the "definite evening" and "definite morning" chronotypes to 1.31 (CI, 1.13 to 1.50), 1.54 (CI, 1.34 to 1.77), and 1.59 (CI, 1.38 to 1.83), respectively. Accounting for all measured lifestyle and sociodemographic factors resulted in a reduced but still positive association (HR comparing "definite evening" vs. "definite morning" chronotype, 1.19 [CI, 1.03 to 1.37]). LIMITATIONS: Chronotype assessment using a single question, self-reported data, and homogeneity of the study population. CONCLUSION: Middle-aged nurses with an evening chronotype were more likely to report unhealthy lifestyle behaviors and had increased diabetes risk compared with those with a morning chronotype. Accounting for BMI, physical activity, diet, and other modifiable lifestyle factors attenuated much but not all of the increased diabetes risk. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Institutes of Health.

Plasma metabolite profiles associated with the World Cancer Research Fund/American Institute for Cancer Research lifestyle score and future risk of cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes.

BACKGROUND: A healthy lifestyle (HL) has been inversely related to type 2 diabetes (T2D) and cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, few studies have identified a metabolite profile associated with HL. The present study aims to identify a metabolite profile of a HL score and assess its association with the incidence of T2D and CVD in individuals at high cardiovascular risk. METHODS: In a subset of 1833 participants (age 55-80y) of the PREDIMED study, we estimated adherence to a HL using a composite score based on the 2018 Word Cancer Research Fund/American Institute for Cancer Research recommendations. Plasma metabolites were analyzed using LC-MS/MS methods at baseline (discovery sample) and 1-year of follow-up (validation sample). Cross-sectional associations between 385 known metabolites and the HL score were assessed using elastic net regression. A 10-cross-validation procedure was used, and correlation coefficients or AUC were assessed between the identified metabolite profiles and the self-reported HL score. We estimated the associations between the identified metabolite profiles and T2D and CVD using multivariable Cox regression models. RESULTS: The metabolite profiles that identified HL as a dichotomous or continuous variable included 24 and 58 metabolites, respectively. These are amino acids or derivatives, lipids, and energy intermediates or xenobiotic compounds. After adjustment for potential confounders, baseline metabolite profiles were associated with a lower risk of T2D (hazard ratio [HR] and 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.54, 0.38-0.77 for dichotomous HL, and 0.22, 0.11-0.43 for continuous HL). Similar results were observed with CVD (HR, 95% CI: 0.59, 0.42-0.83 for dichotomous HF and HR, 95%CI: 0.58, 0.31-1.07 for continuous HL). The reduction in the risk of T2D and CVD was maintained or attenuated, respectively, for the 1-year metabolomic profile. CONCLUSIONS: In an elderly population at high risk of CVD, a set of metabolites was selected as potential metabolites associated with the HL pattern predicting the risk of T2D and, to a lesser extent, CVD. These results support previous findings that some of these metabolites are inversely associated with the risk of T2D and CVD. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The PREDIMED trial was registered at ISRCTN ( http://www.isrctn.com/ , ISRCTN35739639).

Plasma metabolomic profiles associated with mortality and longevity in a prospective analysis of 13,512 individuals.

Experimental studies reported biochemical actions underpinning aging processes and mortality, but the relevant metabolic alterations in humans are not well understood. Here we examine the associations of 243 plasma metabolites with mortality and longevity (attaining age 85 years) in 11,634 US (median follow-up of 22.6 years, with 4288 deaths) and 1878 Spanish participants (median follow-up of 14.5 years, with 525 deaths). We find that, higher levels of N2,N2-dimethylguanosine, pseudouridine, N4-acetylcytidine, 4-acetamidobutanoic acid, N1-acetylspermidine, and lipids with fewer double bonds are associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality and reduced odds of longevity; whereas L-serine and lipids with more double bonds are associated with lower mortality risk and a higher likelihood of longevity. We further develop a multi-metabolite profile score that is associated with higher mortality risk. Our findings suggest that differences in levels of nucleosides, amino acids, and several lipid subclasses can predict mortality. The underlying mechanisms remain to be determined.

Association between changes in carbohydrate intake and long term weight changes: prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To comprehensively examine the associations between changes in carbohydrate intake and weight change at four year intervals. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Nurses' Health Study (1986-2010), Nurses' Health Study II (1991-2015), and Health Professionals Follow-Up Study (1986-2014). PARTICIPANTS: 136 432 men and women aged 65 years or younger and free of diabetes, cancer, cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, neurodegenerative disorders, gastric conditions, chronic kidney disease, and systemic lupus erythematosus before baseline. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Weight change within a four year period. RESULTS: The final analyses included 46 722 women in the Nurses' Health Study, 67 186 women in the Nurses' Health Study II, and 22 524 men in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study. On average, participants gained 1.5 kg (5th to 95th centile -6.8 to 10.0) every four years, amounting to 8.8 kg on average over 24 years. Among men and women, increases in glycemic index and glycemic load were positively associated with weight gain. For example, a 100 g/day increase in starch or added sugar was associated with 1.5 kg and 0.9 kg greater weight gain over four years, respectively, whereas a 10 g/day increase in fiber was associated with 0.8 kg less weight gain. Increased carbohydrate intake from whole grains (0.4 kg less weight gain per 100 g/day increase), fruit (1.6 kg less weight gain per 100 g/day increase), and non-starchy vegetables (3.0 kg less weight gain per 100 g/day increase) was inversely associated with weight gain, whereas increased intake from refined grains (0.8 kg more weight gain per 100 g/day increase) and starchy vegetables (peas, corn, and potatoes) (2.6 kg more weight gain per 100 g/day increase) was positively associated with weight gain. In substitution analyses, replacing refined grains, starchy vegetables, and sugar sweetened beverages with equal servings of whole grains, fruit, and non-starchy vegetables was associated with less weight gain. The magnitude of these associations was stronger among participants with overweight or obesity compared with those with normal weight (P<0.001 for interaction). Most of these associations were also stronger among women. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this study highlight the potential importance of carbohydrate quality and source for long term weight management, especially for people with excessive body weight. Limiting added sugar, sugar sweetened beverages, refined grains, and starchy vegetables in favor of whole grains, fruit, and non-starchy vegetables may support efforts to control weight.