Mapping multiscale breeding bird species distributions across the United States and evaluating their conservation applications.

Species distribution models are vital to management decisions that require understanding habitat use patterns, particularly for species of conservation concern. However, the production of distribution maps for individual species is often hampered by data scarcity, and existing species maps are rarely spatially validated due to limited occurrence data. Furthermore, community-level maps based on stacked species distribution models lack important community assemblage information (e.g., competitive exclusion) relevant to conservation. Thus, multispecies, guild, or community models are often used in conservation practice instead. To address these limitations, we aimed to generate fine-scale, spatially continuous, nationwide maps for species represented in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) between 1992 and 2019. We developed ensemble models for each species at three spatial resolutions-0.5, 2.5, and 5 km-across the conterminous United States. We also compared species richness patterns from stacked single-species models with those of 19 functional guilds developed using the same data to assess the similarity between predictions. We successfully modeled 192 bird species at 5-km resolution, 160 species at 2.5-km resolution, and 80 species at 0.5-km resolution. However, the species we could model represent only 28%-56% of species found in the conterminous US BBSs across resolutions owing to data limitations. We found that stacked maps and guild maps generally had high correlations across resolutions (median = 84%), but spatial agreement varied regionally by resolution and was most pronounced between the East and West at the 5-km resolution. The spatial differences between our stacked maps and guild maps illustrate the importance of spatial validation in conservation planning. Overall, our species maps are useful for single-species conservation and can support fine-scale decision-making across the United States and support community-level conservation when used in tandem with guild maps. However, there remain data scarcity issues for many species of conservation concern when using the BBS for single-species models.

Mapping breeding bird species richness at management-relevant resolutions across the United States.

Human activities alter ecosystems everywhere, causing rapid biodiversity loss and biotic homogenization. These losses necessitate coordinated conservation actions guided by biodiversity and species distribution spatial data that cover large areas yet have fine-enough resolution to be management-relevant (i.e., ≤5 km). However, most biodiversity products are too coarse for management or are only available for small areas. Furthermore, many maps generated for biodiversity assessment and conservation do not explicitly quantify the inherent tradeoff between resolution and accuracy when predicting biodiversity patterns. Our goals were to generate predictive models of overall breeding bird species richness and species richness of different guilds based on nine functional or life-history-based traits across the conterminous United States at three resolutions (0.5, 2.5, and 5 km) and quantify the tradeoff between resolution and accuracy and, hence, relevance for management of the resulting biodiversity maps. We summarized 18 years of North American Breeding Bird Survey data (1992-2019) and modeled species richness using random forests, including 66 predictor variables (describing climate, vegetation, geomorphology, and anthropogenic conditions), 20 of which we newly derived. Among the three spatial resolutions, the percentage variance explained ranged from 27% to 60% (median = 54%; mean = 57%) for overall species richness and 12% to 87% (median = 61%; mean = 58%) for our different guilds. Overall species richness and guild-specific species richness were best explained at 5-km resolution using ~24 predictor variables based on percentage variance explained, symmetric mean absolute percentage error, and root mean square error values. However, our 2.5-km-resolution maps were almost as accurate and provided more spatially detailed information, which is why we recommend them for most management applications. Our results represent the first consistent, occurrence-based, and nationwide maps of breeding bird richness with a thorough accuracy assessment that are also spatially detailed enough to inform local management decisions. More broadly, our findings highlight the importance of explicitly considering tradeoffs between resolution and accuracy to create management-relevant biodiversity products for large areas.

Mosquito Communities and Avian Malaria Prevalence in Silvereyes (Zosterops lateralis) Within Forest Edge and Interior Habitats in a New Zealand Regional Park.

Forest fragmentation and agricultural development are important anthropogenic landscape alterations affecting the disease dynamics of malarial parasites (Plasmodium spp.), largely through their effects on vector communities. We compared vector abundance and species composition at two forest edge sites abutting pastureland and two forest interior sites in New Zealand, while simultaneously assessing avian malaria prevalence in silvereyes (Zosterops lateralis). Twenty-two of 240 (9.2%) individual silvereyes captured across all sites tested positive for avian malaria, and Plasmodium prevalence was nearly identical in edge and interior habitats. A total of 580 mosquito specimens were trapped across all sites. These comprised five different species: the introduced Aedes notoscriptus and Culex quinquefasciatus; the native A. antipodeus, C. asteliae and C. pervigilans. The known avian malaria vector C. quinquefasciatus was only recorded in the forest edge (mostly at ground level). In contrast, the probable vector C. pervigilans was abundant and widespread in both edge and interior sites. Although frequently caught in ground traps, more C. pervigilans specimens were captured in the canopy. This study shows that avian malaria prevalence among silvereyes appeared to be unaffected by forest fragmentation, at least at the scale assessed. Introduced mosquito species were almost completely absent from the forest interior, and thus our study provides further circumstantial evidence that native mosquito species (in particular C. pervigilans) play an important role in avian malaria transmission in New Zealand.

Patterns in avian malaria at founder and source populations of an endemic New Zealand passerine.

Significant progress in our understanding of disease transmission in the wild can be made by examining variation in host-parasite-vector interactions after founder events of the host. This study is the first to document patterns in avian malaria, Plasmodium spp., infecting an endemic New Zealand passerine, Anthornis melanura, at multiple-host subpopulations simultaneously. We assess the Beaudoin hypothesis of bimodal seasonality and use AIC model selection to determine host factors associated with disease prevalence. We had the rare opportunity to test the enemy release hypothesis (ERH) after a recent colonisation event of the bellbird host. Four Plasmodium species were found to infect bellbirds. Temporal patterns of three exotic parasite lineages, including GRW06 Plasmodium (Huffia) elongatum, SYAT05 Plasmodium (Novyella) vaughani and a Plasmodium (Haemamoeba) relictum, were sporadic with low prevalence year round. The fourth species was an endemic parasite, an unresolved Plasmodium (Novyella) sp. here called ANME01, which exhibited a strong winter peak at the source subpopulations possibly indicating greater immune stressors at the densely populated source site. At the colonies, we observed bimodal seasonality in the prevalence of ANME01 with autumn and spring peaks. These infection peaks were male-biased, and the amplitude of sex bias was more pronounced at the newer colony perhaps due to increased seasonal competition resulting from territory instability. We observed a decrease in parasite species diversity and increase in body condition from source to founder sites, but statistical differences in the direct relationship between body condition and malaria prevalence between source and colony were weak and significant only during winter. Though our data did not strongly support the ERH, we highlight the benefits of 'conspecific release' associated with decreased population density and food competition. Our findings contribute to the identification of ecological and environmental drivers of variability in malaria transmission, which is valuable for predicting the consequences of both natural range expansions, as well as host re-introductions resulting from intensive conservation practices.