Risks of Adverse Outcomes for Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients during the Four Waves in Brazil According to SARS-CoV-2 Variants, Age Group, and Vaccine Status.

Brazil was hit with four consecutive waves of COVID-19 until 2022 due to the ancestral SARS-CoV-2 (B.1 lineage), followed by the emergence of variants/subvariants. Relative risks of adverse outcomes for COVID-19 patients hospitalized during the four waves were evaluated. Data were extracted from the largest Brazilian database (SIVEP-Gripe), and COVID-19 patients who were hospitalized during the peak of each of the four waves (15-week intervals) were included in this study. The outcomes of in-hospital death, invasive (IMV) and non-invasive (NIV) ventilation requirements, and intensive care unit (ICU) admission were analyzed to estimate the relative risks. A higher risk of in-hospital death was found during the second wave for all age groups, but a significant reduction was observed in the risk of death for the elderly during the third and fourth waves compared to patients in the first wave. There was an increased risk of IMV requirement and ICU admissions during the second wave for patients aged 18-59 years old compared to the first wave. Relative risk analysis showed that booster-vaccinated individuals have lower risks of in-hospital death and IMV requirement in all age groups compared to unvaccinated/partially vaccinated patients, demonstrating the relevance of full/booster vaccination in reducing adverse outcomes for patients who were hospitalized during the variant prevalence.

Profile and Outcomes of Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients during the Prevalence of the Omicron Variant According to the Brazilian Regions: A Retrospective Cohort Study from 2022.

We investigated the clinical-epidemiological profile and outcomes of COVID-19 patients hospitalized in 2022, during the Omicron variant/subvariant prevalence, in different Brazilian regions to identify the most vulnerable subgroups requiring special attention. Data from COVID-19 patients were extracted from the national Information System for Epidemiological Surveillance of Influenza (SIVEP-Gripe database), and analyses stratified by region and age group were conducted. The constructed dataset encompassed clinical-epidemiological information, intensive care unit admission, invasive and non-invasive ventilation requirements, vaccination status, and evolution (cure or death). It was observed that there were significant differences in the vaccination rates between regions, in the occurrence of unfavorable outcomes, and in the pattern of comorbidities in young patients. The north region had higher rates of unvaccinated patients and a lower percentage of those vaccinated with three doses in all age groups compared to other regions. The northeast region had the highest rates of patients admitted to the ICU for all age groups, while the north and northeast were the most affected by IMV requirements and in-hospital death in all age groups. This study showed that extended vaccination coverage, especially booster doses, can protect different population segments from developing severe disease since lower vaccination coverage was observed in regions with higher fatality rates.

Clinical symptom profile of hospitalized COVID-19 Brazilian patients according to SARS-CoV-2 variants.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence of the main symptoms in Brazilian coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients hospitalized during 4 distinct waves, based on their infection with different severe acute respiratory disease coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants. METHODS: This study included hospitalized patients who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 during 15 weeks around the peak of each of 4 waves: W1, ancestral strain/B.1 lineage (May 31 to September 12, 2020); W2, Gamma/P.1 variant (January 31 to May 15, 2021); W3, Omicron variant (December 5, 2021 to March 19, 2022); and W4, BA.4/BA.5 subvariants (May 22 to September 3, 2022). Symptom data were extracted from the Brazilian Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Database. Relative risks were calculated, and an analysis of symptom networks was performed. RESULTS: Patients who were hospitalized during the prevalence of the Gamma/P.1 variant demonstrated a higher risk, primarily for symptoms such as fatigue, abdominal pain, low oxygen saturation, and sore throat, than patients hospitalized during the first wave. Conversely, patients who were hospitalized during the predominance of the Omicron variant exhibited a lower relative risk, particularly for symptoms such as loss of smell, loss of taste, diarrhea, fever, respiratory distress, and dyspnea. Similar results were observed in COVID-19 patients who were hospitalized during the wave of the Omicron subvariants BA.4/BA.5. A symptom network analysis, conducted to explore co-occurrence patterns among different variants, revealed significant differential profiles across the 4 waves, with the most notable difference observed between the W2 and W4 networks. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the relative risks and patterns of symptom co-occurrence associated with different SARS-CoV-2 variants may reflect disease severity.

An overview of Brazilian working age adults vulnerability to COVID-19.

Brazil is a country of continental dimensions, where many smaller countries would fit. In addition to demographic, socioeconomic, and cultural differences, hospital infrastructure and healthcare varies across all 27 federative units. Therefore, the evolution of COVID-19 pandemic did not manifest itself in a homogeneous and predictable trend across the nation. In late 2020 and early 2021, new waves of the COVID-19 outbreak have caused an unprecedented sanitary collapse in Brazil. Unlike the first COVID-19 wave, in subsequent waves, preliminary evidence has pointed to an increase in the daily reported cases among younger people being hospitalized, overloading the healthcare system. In this comprehensive retrospective cohort study, confirmed cases of hospitalization, ICU admission, IMV requirement and in-hospital death from Brazilian COVID-19 patients throughout 2020 until the beginning of 2021 were analyzed through a spatio-temporal study for patients aged 20-59 years. All Brazilian federative units had their data disaggregated in six periods of ten epidemiological weeks each. We found that there is a wide variation in the waves dynamic due to SARS-CoV-2 infection, both in the first and in subsequent outbreaks in different federative units over the analyzed periods. As a result, atypical waves can be seen in the Brazil data as a whole. The analysis showed that Brazil is experiencing a numerical explosion of hospitalizations and deaths for patients aged 20-59 years, especially in the state of São Paulo, with a similar proportion of hospitalizations for this age group but higher proportion of deaths compared to the first wave.

Predicting the Disease Outcome in COVID-19 Positive Patients Through Machine Learning: A Retrospective Cohort Study With Brazilian Data.

The first officially registered case of COVID-19 in Brazil was on February 26, 2020. Since then, the situation has worsened with more than 672, 000 confirmed cases and at least 36, 000 reported deaths by June 2020. Accurate diagnosis of patients with COVID-19 is extremely important to offer adequate treatment, and avoid overloading the healthcare system. Characteristics of patients such as age, comorbidities and varied clinical symptoms can help in classifying the level of infection severity, predict the disease outcome and the need for hospitalization. Here, we present a study to predict a poor prognosis in positive COVID-19 patients and possible outcomes using machine learning. The study dataset comprises information of 8, 443 patients concerning closed cases due to cure or death. Our experimental results show the disease outcome can be predicted with a Receiver Operating Characteristic AUC of 0.92, Sensitivity of 0.88 and Specificity of 0.82 for the best prediction model. This is a preliminary retrospective study which can be improved with the inclusion of further data. Conclusion: Machine learning techniques fed with demographic and clinical data along with comorbidities of the patients can assist in the prognostic prediction and physician decision-making, allowing a faster response and contributing to the non-overload of healthcare systems.

On the analysis of mortality risk factors for hospitalized COVID-19 patients: A data-driven study using the major Brazilian database.

BACKGROUND: Brazil became the epicenter of the COVID-19 epidemic in a brief period of a few months after the first officially registered case. The knowledge of the epidemiological/clinical profile and the risk factors of Brazilian COVID-19 patients can assist in the decision making of physicians in the implementation of early and most appropriate measures for poor prognosis patients. However, these reports are missing. Here we present a comprehensive study that addresses this demand. METHODS: This data-driven study was based on the Brazilian Ministry of Health Database (SIVEP-Gripe) regarding notified cases of hospitalized COVID-19 patients during the period from February 26th to August 10th, 2020. Demographic data, clinical symptoms, comorbidities and other additional information of patients were analyzed. RESULTS: The hospitalization rate was higher for male gender (56.56%) and for older age patients of both sexes. Overall, the lethality rate was quite high (41.28%) among hospitalized patients, especially those over 60 years of age. Most prevalent symptoms were cough, dyspnoea, fever, low oxygen saturation and respiratory distress. Cardiac disease, diabetes, obesity, kidney disease, neurological disease, and pneumopathy were the most prevalent comorbidities. A high prevalence of hospitalized COVID-19 patients with cardiac disease (65.7%) and diabetes (53.55%) and with a high lethality rate of around 50% was observed. The intensive care unit (ICU) admission rate was 39.37% and of these 62.4% died. 24.4% of patients required invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV), with high mortality among them (82.98%). The main mortality risk predictors were older age and IMV requirement. In addition, socioeconomic conditions have been shown to significantly influence the disease outcome, regardless of age and comorbidities. CONCLUSION: Our study provides a comprehensive overview of the hospitalized Brazilian COVID-19 patients profile and the mortality risk factors. The analysis also evidenced that the disease outcome is influenced by multiple factors, as unequally affects different segments of population.

An Integrated Dead Reckoning with Cooperative Positioning Solution to Assist GPS NLOS Using Vehicular Communications.

In Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS), the Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks (VANETs) paradigm based on the WAVE IEEE 802.11p standard is the main alternative for inter-vehicle communications. Recently, many protocols, applications, and services have been developed with a wide range of objectives, ranging from comfort to security. Most of these services rely on location systems and require different levels of accuracy for their full operation. The Global Positioning System (GPS) is an off-the-shelf solution for localization in VANETs and ITS. However, GPS systems present problems regarding inaccuracy and unavailability in dense urban areas, multilevel roads, and tunnels, posing a challenge for protocols, applications, and services that rely on localization. With this motivation, we carried out a characterization of the problems of inaccuracy and unavailability of GPS systems from real datasets, and regions around tunnels were selected. Since the nodes of the vehicular network are endowed with wireless communication, processing and storage capabilities, an integrated Dead Reckoning aided Geometric Dilution of Precision (GDOP)-based Cooperative Positioning solution was developed and evaluated. Leveraging the potential of vehicular sensors, such as odometers, gyroscopes, and digital compasses, vehicles share their positions and kinematics information using vehicular communication to improve their location estimations. With the assistance of a digital map, vehicles adjust the final estimated position using the road geometry. The situations of GPS unavailability characterized in the datasets were reproduced in a simulation environment to validate the proposed localization solution. The simulation results show average gains in Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) between 97% to 98% in comparison with the stand-alone GPS solution, and 83.00% to 88.00% against the GPS and Dead Reckoning (DR) only solution. The average absolute RMSE was reduced to the range of 3 to 5 m by vehicle. In addition, the proposed solution was shown to support 100% of the GPS unavailability zones on the evaluated scenarios.