Multi-organ immune-related adverse events from immune checkpoint inhibitors and their downstream implications: a retrospective multicohort study.

BACKGROUND: Understanding co-occurrence patterns and prognostic implications of immune-related adverse events is crucial for immunotherapy management. However, previous studies have been limited by sample size and generalisability. In this study, we leveraged a multi-institutional cohort and a population-level database to investigate co-occurrence patterns of and survival outcomes after multi-organ immune-related adverse events among recipients of immune checkpoint inhibitors. METHODS: In this retrospective study, we identified individuals who received immune checkpoint inhibitors between May 31, 2015, and June 29, 2022, from the Massachusetts General Hospital, Brigham and Women's Hospital, and Dana-Farber Cancer Institute (Boston, MA, USA; MGBD cohort), and between April 30, 2010, and Oct 11, 2021, from the independent US population-based TriNetX network. We identified recipients from all datasets using medication codes and names of seven common immune checkpoint inhibitors, and patients were excluded from our analysis if they had incomplete information (eg, diagnosis and medication records) or if they initiated immune checkpoint inhibitor therapy after Oct 11, 2021. Eligible patients from the MGBD cohort were then propensity score matched with recipients of immune checkpoint inhibitors from the TriNetX database (1:2) based on demographic, cancer, and immune checkpoint inhibitor characteristics to facilitate cohort comparability. We applied immune-related adverse event identification rules to identify patients who did and did not have immune-related adverse events in the matched cohorts. To reduce the likelihood of false positives, patients diagnosed with suspected immune-related adverse events within 3 months after chemotherapy were excluded. We performed pairwise correlation analyses, non-negative matrix factorisation, and hierarchical clustering to identify co-occurrence patterns in the MGBD cohort. We conducted landmark overall survival analyses for patient clusters based on predominant immune-related adverse event factors and calculated accompanying hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs, focusing on the 6-month landmark time for primary analyses. We validated our findings using the TriNetX cohort. FINDINGS: We identified 15 246 recipients of immune checkpoint inhibitors from MGBD and 50 503 from TriNetX, of whom 13 086 from MGBD and 26 172 from TriNetX were included in our propensity score-matched cohort. Median follow-up durations were 317 days (IQR 113-712) in patients from MGBD and 249 days (91-616) in patients from TriNetX. After applying immune-related adverse event identification rules, 8704 recipients of immune checkpoint inhibitors were retained from MGBD, of whom 3284 (37·7%) had and 5420 (62·3%) did not have immune-related adverse events, and 18 162 recipients were retained from TriNetX, of whom 5538 (30·5%) had and 12 624 (69·5%) did not have immune-related adverse events. In both cohorts, positive pairwise correlations of immune-related adverse events were commonly observed. Co-occurring immune-related adverse events were decomposed into seven factors across organs, revealing seven distinct patient clusters (endocrine, cutaneous, respiratory, gastrointestinal, hepatic, musculoskeletal, and neurological). In the MGBD cohort, the patient clusters that predominantly had endocrine (HR 0·53 [95% CI 0·40-0·70], p<0·0001) and cutaneous (0·61 [0·46-0·81], p=0·0007) immune-related adverse events had favourable overall survival outcomes at the 6-month landmark timepoint, while the other clusters either had unfavourable (respiratory: 1·60 [1·25-2·03], p=0·0001) or neutral survival outcomes (gastrointestinal: 0·86 [0·67-1·10], p=0·23; musculoskeletal: 0·97 [0·78-1·21], p=0·78; hepatic: 1·20 [0·91-1·59], p=0·19; and neurological: 1·30 [0·97-1·74], p=0·074). Similar results were found in the TriNetX cohort (endocrine: HR 0·75 [95% CI 0·60-0·93], p=0·0078; cutaneous: 0·62 [0·48-0·82], p=0·0007; respiratory: 1·21 [1·00-1·46], p=0·044), except for the neurological cluster having unfavourable (rather than neutral) survival outcomes (1·30 [1·06-1·59], p=0·013). INTERPRETATION: Reliably identifying the immune-related adverse event cluster to which a patient belongs can provide valuable clinical information for prognosticating outcomes of immunotherapy. These insights can be leveraged to counsel patients on the clinical impact of their individual constellation of immune-related adverse events and ultimately develop more personalised surveillance and mitigation strategies. FUNDING: US National Institutes of Health.

MSGene: a multistate model using genetic risk and the electronic health record applied to lifetime risk of coronary artery disease.

Coronary artery disease (CAD) is the leading cause of death among adults worldwide. Accurate risk stratification can support optimal lifetime prevention. Current methods lack the ability to incorporate new information throughout the life course or to combine innate genetic risk factors with acquired lifetime risk. We designed a general multistate model (MSGene) to estimate age-specific transitions across 10 cardiometabolic states, dependent on clinical covariates and a CAD polygenic risk score. This model is designed to handle longitudinal data over the lifetime to address this unmet need and support clinical decision-making. We analyze longitudinal data from 480,638 UK Biobank participants and compared predicted lifetime risk with the 30-year Framingham risk score. MSGene improves discrimination (C-index 0.71 vs 0.66), age of high-risk detection (C-index 0.73 vs 0.52), and overall prediction (RMSE 1.1% vs 10.9%), in held-out data. We also use MSGene to refine estimates of lifetime absolute risk reduction from statin initiation. Our findings underscore our multistate model's potential public health value for accurate lifetime CAD risk estimation using clinical factors and increasingly available genetics toward earlier more effective prevention.

Additional impact of genetic ancestry over race/ethnicity to prevalence of KRAS mutations and allele-specific subtypes in non-small cell lung cancer.

The KRAS mutation is the most common oncogenic driver in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). However, a detailed understanding of how self-reported race and/or ethnicity (SIRE), genetically inferred ancestry (GIA), and their interaction affect KRAS mutation is largely unknown. Here, we investigated the associations between SIRE, quantitative GIA, and KRAS mutation and its allele-specific subtypes in a multi-ethnic cohort of 3,918 patients from the Boston Lung Cancer Survival cohort and the Chinese OrigiMed cohort with an independent validation cohort of 1,450 patients with NSCLC. This comprehensive analysis included detailed covariates such as age at diagnosis, sex, clinical stage, cancer histology, and smoking status. We report that SIRE is significantly associated with KRAS mutations, modified by sex, with SIRE-Asian patients showing lower rates of KRAS mutation, transversion substitution, and the allele-specific subtype KRASG12C compared to SIRE-White patients after adjusting for potential confounders. Moreover, GIA was found to correlate with KRAS mutations, where patients with a higher proportion of European ancestry had an increased risk of KRAS mutations, especially more transition substitutions and KRASG12D. Notably, among SIRE-White patients, an increase in European ancestry was linked to a higher likelihood of KRAS mutations, whereas an increase in admixed American ancestry was associated with a reduced likelihood, suggesting that quantitative GIA offers additional information beyond SIRE. The association of SIRE, GIA, and their interplay with KRAS driver mutations in NSCLC highlights the importance of incorporating both into population-based cancer research, aiming to refine clinical decision-making processes and mitigate health disparities.

Rare germline structural variants increase risk for pediatric solid tumors.

Pediatric solid tumors are rare malignancies that represent a leading cause of death by disease among children in developed countries. The early age-of-onset of these tumors suggests that germline genetic factors are involved, yet conventional germline testing for short coding variants in established predisposition genes only identifies pathogenic events in 10-15% of patients. Here, we examined the role of germline structural variants (SVs)-an underexplored form of germline variation-in pediatric extracranial solid tumors using germline genome sequencing of 1,766 affected children, their 943 unaffected relatives, and 6,665 adult controls. We discovered a sex-biased association between very large (>1 megabase) germline chromosomal abnormalities and a four-fold increased risk of solid tumors in male children. The overall impact of germline SVs was greatest in neuroblastoma, where we revealed burdens of ultra-rare SVs that cause loss-of-function of highly expressed, mutationally intolerant, neurodevelopmental genes, as well as noncoding SVs predicted to disrupt three-dimensional chromatin domains in neural crest-derived tissues. Collectively, our results implicate rare germline SVs as a predisposing factor to pediatric solid tumors that may guide future studies and clinical practice.

Cross-ancestry atlas of gene, isoform, and splicing regulation in the developing human brain.

Neuropsychiatric genome-wide association studies (GWASs), including those for autism spectrum disorder and schizophrenia, show strong enrichment for regulatory elements in the developing brain. However, prioritizing risk genes and mechanisms is challenging without a unified regulatory atlas. Across 672 diverse developing human brains, we identified 15,752 genes harboring gene, isoform, and/or splicing quantitative trait loci, mapping 3739 to cellular contexts. Gene expression heritability drops during development, likely reflecting both increasing cellular heterogeneity and the intrinsic properties of neuronal maturation. Isoform-level regulation, particularly in the second trimester, mediated the largest proportion of GWAS heritability. Through colocalization, we prioritized mechanisms for about 60% of GWAS loci across five disorders, exceeding adult brain findings. Finally, we contextualized results within gene and isoform coexpression networks, revealing the comprehensive landscape of transcriptome regulation in development and disease.

Functional dissection of complex and molecular trait variants at single nucleotide resolution.

Identifying the causal variants and mechanisms that drive complex traits and diseases remains a core problem in human genetics. The majority of these variants have individually weak effects and lie in non-coding gene-regulatory elements where we lack a complete understanding of how single nucleotide alterations modulate transcriptional processes to affect human phenotypes. To address this, we measured the activity of 221,412 trait-associated variants that had been statistically fine-mapped using a Massively Parallel Reporter Assay (MPRA) in 5 diverse cell-types. We show that MPRA is able to discriminate between likely causal variants and controls, identifying 12,025 regulatory variants with high precision. Although the effects of these variants largely agree with orthogonal measures of function, only 69% can plausibly be explained by the disruption of a known transcription factor (TF) binding motif. We dissect the mechanisms of 136 variants using saturation mutagenesis and assign impacted TFs for 91% of variants without a clear canonical mechanism. Finally, we provide evidence that epistasis is prevalent for variants in close proximity and identify multiple functional variants on the same haplotype at a small, but important, subset of trait-associated loci. Overall, our study provides a systematic functional characterization of likely causal common variants underlying complex and molecular human traits, enabling new insights into the regulatory grammar underlying disease risk.

Improved multi-ancestry fine-mapping identifies cis-regulatory variants underlying molecular traits and disease risk.

Multi-ancestry statistical fine-mapping of cis-molecular quantitative trait loci (cis-molQTL) aims to improve the precision of distinguishing causal cis-molQTLs from tagging variants. However, existing approaches fail to reflect shared genetic architectures. To solve this limitation, we present the Sum of Shared Single Effects (SuShiE) model, which leverages LD heterogeneity to improve fine-mapping precision, infer cross-ancestry effect size correlations, and estimate ancestry-specific expression prediction weights. We apply SuShiE to mRNA expression measured in PBMCs (n=956) and LCLs (n=814) together with plasma protein levels (n=854) from individuals of diverse ancestries in the TOPMed MESA and GENOA studies. We find SuShiE fine-maps cis-molQTLs for 16% more genes compared with baselines while prioritizing fewer variants with greater functional enrichment. SuShiE infers highly consistent cis-molQTL architectures across ancestries on average; however, we also find evidence of heterogeneity at genes with predicted loss-of-function intolerance, suggesting that environmental interactions may partially explain differences in cis-molQTL effect sizes across ancestries. Lastly, we leverage estimated cis-molQTL effect-sizes to perform individual-level TWAS and PWAS on six white blood cell-related traits in AOU Biobank individuals (n=86k), and identify 44 more genes compared with baselines, further highlighting its benefits in identifying genes relevant for complex disease risk. Overall, SuShiE provides new insights into the cis-genetic architecture of molecular traits.

Development, evaluation and validation of machine learning models to predict hospitalizations of patients with coronary artery disease within the next 12 months.

BACKGROUND: Improved survival of patients after acute coronary syndromes, population growth, and overall life expectancy rise have led to a significant increase in the proportion of patients with stable coronary artery disease (CAD), creating a significant load on the entire healthcare system. The disease often progresses with the development of many complications while significantly increasing the likelihood of hospitalization. Developing and applying a machine learning model for predicting hospitalizations of patients with CAD to an inpatient medical facility will allow for close monitoring of high-risk patients, early preventive interventions, and optimized medical care. AIMS: Development and external validation of personalized models for predicting the preventable hospitalizations of patients with stable CAD and its complications using ML algorithms and data of real-world clinical practice. METHODS: 135,873 depersonalized electronic health records of 49,103 patients with stable CAD were included in the study. Anthropometric measurements, physical examination results, laboratory, instrumental, anamnestic, and socio-demographic data, widely used in routine medical practice, were considered as potential predictors, a total of 73 features. Logistic regression, decision tree-based methods including gradient boosting (AdaBoost, LightGBM, XGBoost, CatBoost) and bagging (RandomForest and ExtraTrees), discriminant analysis (LinearDiscriminant, QuadraticDiscriminant), and naive Bayes classifier were compared. External validation was performed on the data of a separate region. RESULTS: The best results and stability to external validation data were shown by the CatBoost model with an AUC of 0.875 (95% CI 0.865-0.885) for the internal testing and 0.872 (95% CI 0.856-0.886) for the external validation. The best model showed good performance evaluated through AUROC, Brier score and standardized net benefit (for the target NPV threshold) for the validation dataset that was only slightly similar to the train data. CONCLUSION: The metrics of the best model were superior to previously published studies. The results of external validation demonstrated the relative stability of the model to new data from another region that confirms the possibility of the model's application in real clinical practice.

Brain cell-type shifts in Alzheimer's disease, autism, and schizophrenia interrogated using methylomics and genetics.

Few neuropsychiatric disorders have replicable biomarkers, prompting high-resolution and large-scale molecular studies. However, we still lack consensus on a more foundational question: whether quantitative shifts in cell types-the functional unit of life-contribute to neuropsychiatric disorders. Leveraging advances in human brain single-cell methylomics, we deconvolve seven major cell types using bulk DNA methylation profiling across 1270 postmortem brains, including from individuals diagnosed with Alzheimer's disease, schizophrenia, and autism. We observe and replicate cell-type compositional shifts for Alzheimer's disease (endothelial cell loss), autism (increased microglia), and schizophrenia (decreased oligodendrocytes), and find age- and sex-related changes. Multiple layers of evidence indicate that endothelial cell loss contributes to Alzheimer's disease, with comparable effect size to APOE genotype among older people. Genome-wide association identified five genetic loci related to cell-type composition, involving plausible genes for the neurovascular unit (P2RX5 and TRPV3) and excitatory neurons (DPY30 and MEMO1). These results implicate specific cell-type shifts in the pathophysiology of neuropsychiatric disorders.

Multimodal analysis of RNA sequencing data powers discovery of complex trait genetics.

Transcriptome data is commonly used to understand genome function via quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping and to identify the molecular mechanisms driving genome wide association study (GWAS) signals through colocalization analysis and transcriptome-wide association studies (TWAS). While RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) has the potential to reveal many modalities of transcriptional regulation, such as various splicing phenotypes, such studies are often limited to gene expression due to the complexity of extracting and analyzing multiple RNA phenotypes. Here, we present Pantry (Pan-transcriptomic phenotyping), a framework to efficiently generate diverse RNA phenotypes from RNA-seq data and perform downstream integrative analyses with genetic data. Pantry currently generates phenotypes from six modalities of transcriptional regulation (gene expression, isoform ratios, splice junction usage, alternative TSS/polyA usage, and RNA stability) and integrates them with genetic data via QTL mapping, TWAS, and colocalization testing. We applied Pantry to Geuvadis and GTEx data, and found that 4,768 of the genes with no identified expression QTL in Geuvadis had QTLs in at least one other transcriptional modality, resulting in a 66% increase in genes over expression QTL mapping. We further found that QTLs exhibit modality-specific functional properties that are further reinforced by joint analysis of different RNA modalities. We also show that generalizing TWAS to multiple RNA modalities (xTWAS) approximately doubles the discovery of unique gene-trait associations, and enhances identification of regulatory mechanisms underlying GWAS signal in 42% of previously associated gene-trait pairs. We provide the Pantry code, RNA phenotypes from all Geuvadis and GTEx samples, and xQTL and xTWAS results on the web.

Genetic and molecular architecture of complex traits.

Human genetics has emerged as one of the most dynamic areas of biology, with a broadening societal impact. In this review, we discuss recent achievements, ongoing efforts, and future challenges in the field. Advances in technology, statistical methods, and the growing scale of research efforts have all provided many insights into the processes that have given rise to the current patterns of genetic variation. Vast maps of genetic associations with human traits and diseases have allowed characterization of their genetic architecture. Finally, studies of molecular and cellular effects of genetic variants have provided insights into biological processes underlying disease. Many outstanding questions remain, but the field is well poised for groundbreaking discoveries as it increases the use of genetic data to understand both the history of our species and its applications to improve human health.

Cancer type and histology influence cutaneous immunotherapy toxicities: a multi-institutional cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Cutaneous immune-related adverse events (cirAEs) are the most common toxicities to occur in the setting of immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) therapy. Identifying patients who are at increased risk of developing cirAEs may improve quality of life and outcomes. OBJECTIVES: To investigate the influence of cancer type and histology on the development of cirAEs in the setting of ICI therapy and survival outcomes. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included patients recruited between 1 December 2011 and 30 October 2020. They received ICI from 2011 to 2020 with follow-up of outcomes through October 2021. We identified 3668 recipients of ICI therapy who were seen at Massachusetts General Brigham and Dana-Farber. Of these, 669 developed cirAEs. Records that were incomplete or categories of insufficient sample size were excluded from the study cohort. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were used to investigate the impact of cancer organ system and histology on cirAE development, after adjusting for demographics, Charlson Comorbidity Index, ICI type, cancer stage at ICI initiation, and year of ICI initiation. Time-varying Cox proportional hazards modelling was used to examine the impact of cirAE development on mortality. RESULTS: Compared with other nonepithelial cancers (neuroendocrine, leukaemia, lymphoma, myeloma, sarcoma and central nervous system malignancies), cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma [cSCC; hazard ratio (HR) 3.57, P < 0.001], melanoma (HR 2.09, P < 0.001), head and neck adenocarcinoma (HR 2.13, P = 0.009), genitourinary transitional cell carcinoma (HR 2.15, P < 0.001) and genitourinary adenocarcinoma (HR 1.53, P = 0.037) were at significantly higher risk of cirAEs in multivariate analyses. The increased risk of cirAEs translated into an adjusted survival benefit for melanoma (HR 0.37, P < 0.001) and cSCC (HR 0.51, P = 0.011). CONCLUSIONS: The highest rate of cirAEs and subsequent survival benefits were observed in cutaneous malignancies treated with ICI therapies. This study improves our understanding of patients who are at highest risk of developing cirAEs and would, therefore, benefit from appropriate counselling and closer monitoring by their oncologists and dermatologists throughout their ICI therapy. Limitations include its retrospective nature and cohort from one geography.

Cutaneous immune-related adverse events (cirAEs) are the most common complications to occur for oncology patients treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs). cirAEs can lead to increased use of healthcare resources and significant morbidity. Identifying patients who are at increased risk of developing cirAEs may improve quality of life and outcomes. In this study, we aimed to investigate the influence of cancer organ system and histology on the development of cirAEs and survival outcomes. To do this, we included a cohort of patients retrospectively between 1 December 2011 and 30 October 2020. We identified 3668 ICI recipients who were seen at Massachusetts General Brigham and Dana-Farber in Boston, Massachusetts. Of these, 669 people developed cirAEs. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were used to investigate the impact of cancer organ system and histology on cirAE development, after adjusting for demographics, Charlson Comorbidity Index, ICI type, cancer stage at ICI start, and year of ICI initiation. Time-varying Cox proportional hazards modelling was used to examine the impact of cirAE development on mortality. We found that, compared with other nonepithelial cancers, patients with cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC) and melanoma were at significantly higher risk of cirAEs. The increased risk of cirAEs translated into an adjusted survival benefit for melanoma and cSCC. This study improves our understanding of patients who are at highest risk of developing cirAEs ­ those with melanoma and cSCC. Therefore, many patients could benefit from appropriate counselling and close monitoring by their oncologists and dermatologists throughout ICI therapy.

A comprehensive analysis of clinical and polygenic germline influences on somatic mutational burden.

Tumor mutational burden (TMB), the total number of somatic mutations in the tumor, and copy number burden (CNB), the corresponding measure of aneuploidy, are established fundamental somatic features and emerging biomarkers for immunotherapy. However, the genetic and non-genetic influences on TMB/CNB and, critically, the manner by which they influence patient outcomes remain poorly understood. Here, we present a large germline-somatic study of TMB/CNB with >23,000 individuals across 17 cancer types, of which 12,000 also have extensive clinical, treatment, and overall survival (OS) measurements available. We report dozens of clinical associations with TMB/CNB, observing older age and male sex to have a strong effect on TMB and weaker impact on CNB. We additionally identified significant germline influences on TMB/CNB, including fine-scale European ancestry and germline polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for smoking, tanning, white blood cell counts, and educational attainment. We quantify the causal effect of exposures on somatic mutational processes using Mendelian randomization. Many of the identified features associated with TMB/CNB were additionally associated with OS for individuals treated at a single tertiary cancer center. For individuals receiving immunotherapy, we observed a complex relationship between PRSs for educational attainment, self-reported college attainment, TMB, and survival, suggesting that the influence of this biomarker may be substantially modified by socioeconomic status. While the accumulation of somatic alterations is a stochastic process, our work demonstrates that it can be shaped by host characteristics including germline genetics.

Lung cancer in patients who have never smoked - an emerging disease.

Lung cancer is the most common cause of cancer-related deaths globally. Although smoking-related lung cancers continue to account for the majority of diagnoses, smoking rates have been decreasing for several decades. Lung cancer in individuals who have never smoked (LCINS) is estimated to be the fifth most common cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide in 2023, preferentially occurring in women and Asian populations. As smoking rates continue to decline, understanding the aetiology and features of this disease, which necessitate unique diagnostic and treatment paradigms, will be imperative. New data have provided important insights into the molecular and genomic characteristics of LCINS, which are distinct from those of smoking-associated lung cancers and directly affect treatment decisions and outcomes. Herein, we review the emerging data regarding the aetiology and features of LCINS, particularly the genetic and environmental underpinnings of this disease as well as their implications for treatment. In addition, we outline the unique diagnostic and therapeutic paradigms of LCINS and discuss future directions in identifying individuals at high risk of this disease for potential screening efforts.

Obesity shapes selection for driver mutations in cancer.

Obesity is a leading risk factor for cancer, but whether obesity is linked to specific genomic subtypes of cancer is unknown. Here, we examined the relationship between obesity and tumor genotype in two large clinicogenomic corpora. Obesity was associated with specific driver mutations in lung adenocarcinoma, endometrial carcinoma, and cancers of unknown primary, independent of clinical covariates and genetic ancestry. Obesity is therefore a putative driver of etiologic heterogeneity across cancers.

Development and validation of time-to-event models to predict metastatic recurrence of localized cutaneous melanoma.

BACKGROUND: The recent expansion of immunotherapy for stage IIB/IIC melanoma highlights a growing clinical need to identify patients at high risk of metastatic recurrence and, therefore, most likely to benefit from this therapeutic modality. OBJECTIVE: To develop time-to-event risk prediction models for melanoma metastatic recurrence. METHODS: Patients diagnosed with stage I/II primary cutaneous melanoma between 2000 and 2020 at Mass General Brigham and Dana-Farber Cancer Institute were included. Melanoma recurrence date and type were determined by chart review. Thirty clinicopathologic factors were extracted from electronic health records. Three types of time-to-event machine-learning models were evaluated internally and externally in the distant versus locoregional/nonrecurrence prediction. RESULTS: This study included 954 melanomas (155 distant, 163 locoregional, and 636 1:2 matched nonrecurrences). Distant recurrences were associated with worse survival compared to locoregional/nonrecurrences (HR: 6.21, P < .001) and to locoregional recurrences only (HR: 5.79, P < .001). The Gradient Boosting Survival model achieved the best performance (concordance index: 0.816; time-dependent AUC: 0.842; Brier score: 0.103) in the external validation. LIMITATIONS: Retrospective nature and cohort from one geography. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that time-to-event machine-learning models can reliably predict the metastatic recurrence from localized melanoma and help identify high-risk patients who are most likely to benefit from immunotherapy.

Prediction and stratification of longitudinal risk for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease across smoking behaviors.

Smoking is the leading risk factor for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) worldwide, yet many people who never smoke develop COPD. We perform a longitudinal analysis of COPD in the UK Biobank to derive and validate the Socioeconomic and Environmental Risk Score which captures additive and cumulative environmental, behavioral, and socioeconomic exposure risks beyond tobacco smoking. The Socioeconomic and Environmental Risk Score is more predictive of COPD than smoking status and pack-years. Individuals in the highest decile of the risk score have a greater risk for incident COPD compared to the remaining population. Never smokers in the highest decile of exposure risk are more likely to develop COPD than previous and current smokers in the lowest decile. In general, the prediction accuracy of the Social and Environmental Risk Score is lower in non-European populations. While smoking status is often considered in screening COPD, our finding highlights the importance of other non-smoking environmental and socioeconomic variables.

MSGene: Derivation and validation of a multistate model for lifetime risk of coronary artery disease using genetic risk and the electronic health record.

Currently, coronary artery disease (CAD) is the leading cause of death among adults worldwide. Accurate risk stratification can support optimal lifetime prevention. We designed a novel and general multistate model (MSGene) to estimate age-specific transitions across 10 cardiometabolic states, dependent on clinical covariates and a CAD polygenic risk score. MSGene supports decision making about CAD prevention related to any of these states. We analyzed longitudinal data from 480,638 UK Biobank participants and compared predicted lifetime risk with the 30-year Framingham risk score. MSGene improved discrimination (C-index 0.71 vs 0.66), age of high-risk detection (C-index 0.73 vs 0.52), and overall prediction (RMSE 1.1% vs 10.9%), with external validation. We also used MSGene to refine estimates of lifetime absolute risk reduction from statin initiation. Our findings underscore the potential public health value of our novel multistate model for accurate lifetime CAD risk estimation using clinical factors and increasingly available genetics.