A systematic survey of randomised trials that stopped early for reasons of futility.

BACKGROUND: Randomised trial protocols may incorporate interim analyses, with the potential to stop the study for futility if early data show insufficient promise of a treatment benefit. Previously, we have shown that this approach will theoretically lead to mis-estimation of the treatment effect. We now wished to ascertain the importance of this phenomenon in practice. METHODS: We reviewed the methods and results in a set of trials that had stopped for futility, identified through an extensive literature search. We recorded clinical areas, interventions, study design, outcomes, trial setting, sponsorship, planned and actual treatment effects, sample sizes; power; and if there was a data safety monitoring board, or a published protocol. We identified: if interim analyses were pre-specified, and how many analyses actually occurred; what pre-specified criteria might define futility; if a futility analysis formed the basis for stopping; who made the decision to stop; and the conditional power of each study, i.e. the probability of statistically significant results if the study were to continue to its complete sample size. RESULTS: We identified 52 eligible trials, covering many clinical areas. Most trials had multiple centres, tested drugs, and 40% were industry sponsored. There were 75% where at least one interim analysis was planned a priori; a majority had only one interim analysis, typically with about half the target total sample size. A majority of trials did not pre-define a stopping rule, and a variety of reasons were given for stopping. Few studies calculated and reported low conditional power to justify the early stop. When conditional power could be calculated, it was typically low, especially under the current trend hypothesis. However, under the original design hypothesis, a few studies had relatively high conditional power. Data collection often continued after the interim analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Although other factors will typically be involved, we conclude that, from the perspective of conditional power, stopping early for futility was probably reasonable in most cases, but documentation of the basis for stopping was often missing or vague. Interpretation of truncated trials would be enhanced by improved reporting of stopping protocols, and of their actual execution.

Randomised trials with provision for early stopping for benefit (or harm): The impact on the estimated treatment effect.

Stopping rules for clinical trials are primarily intended to control Type I error rates if interim analyses are planned, but less is known about the impact that potential stopping has on estimating treatment benefit. In this paper, we derive analytic expressions for (1) the over-estimation of benefit in studies that stop early, (2) the under-estimation of benefit in completed studies, and (3) the overall bias in studies with a stopping rule. We also examine the probability of stopping early and the situation in meta-analyses. Numerical evaluations show that the greatest concern is with over-estimation of benefit in stopped studies, especially if the probability of stopping early is small. The overall bias is usually less than 10% of the true benefit, and under-estimation in completed studies is also typically small. The probability of stopping depends on the true treatment effect and sample size. The magnitude of these effects depends on the particular rule adopted, but we show that the maximum overall bias is the same for all stopping rules. We also show that an essentially unbiased meta-analysis estimate of benefit can be recovered, even if some component studies have stopping rules. We illustrate these methods using data from three clinical trials. The results confirm our earlier empirical work on clinical trials. Investigators may consult our numerical results for guidance on potential mis-estimation and bias in the treatment effect if a stopping rule is adopted. Particular concern is warranted in studies that actually stop early, where interim results may be quite misleading.

Wound irrigation does not affect health-related quality of life after open fractures: results of a randomized controlled trial.

AIMS: The Fluid Lavage in Open Fracture Wounds (FLOW) trial was a multicentre, blinded, randomized controlled trial that used a 2 × 3 factorial design to evaluate the effect of irrigation solution (soap versus normal saline) and irrigation pressure (very low versus low versus high) on health-related quality of life (HRQL) in patients with open fractures. In this study, we used this dataset to ascertain whether these factors affect whether HRQL returns to pre-injury levels at 12-months post-injury. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Participants completed the Short Form-12 (SF-12) and the EuroQol-5 Dimensions (EQ-5D) at baseline (pre-injury recall), at two and six weeks, and at three, six, nine and 12-months post-fracture. We calculated the Physical Component Score (PCS) and the Mental Component Score (MCS) of the SF-12 and the EQ-5D utility score, conducted an analysis using a multi-level generalized linear model, and compared differences between the baseline and 12-month scores. RESULTS: We found no clinically important differences between irrigating solutions or pressures for the SF-12 PCS, SF-12 MCS and EQ-5D. Irrespective of treatment, participants had not returned to their pre-injury function at 12-months for any of the three outcomes (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Neither the composition of the irrigation solution nor irrigation pressure applied had an effect on HRQL. Irrespective of treatment, patients had not returned to their pre-injury HRQL at 12 months post-fracture. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2018;100-B:88-94.

Oxygen therapy for acutely ill medical patients: a clinical practice guideline

What is the best way to use oxygen therapy for patients with an acute medical illness? A systematic review published in the Lancet in April 2018 found that supplemental oxygen in inpatients with normal oxygen saturation increases mortality.1 Its authors concluded that oxygen should be administered conservatively, but they did not make specific recommendations on how to do it. An international expert panel used that review to inform this guideline. It aims to promptly and transparently translate potentially practice-changing evidence to usable recommendations for clinicians and patients.2 The panel used the GRADE framework and following standards for trustworthy guidelines.3

Low-intensity pulsed ultrasound for treatment of tibial fractures: an economic evaluation of the TRUST study.

AIMS: This 501-patient, multi-centre, randomised controlled trial sought to establish the effect of low-intensity, pulsed, ultrasound (LIPUS) on tibial shaft fractures managed with intramedullary nailing. We conducted an economic evaluation as part of this trial. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Data for patients' use of post-operative healthcare resources and time taken to return to work were collected and costed using publicly available sources. Health-related quality of life, assessed using the Health Utilities Index Mark-3 (HUI-3), was used to derive quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Costs and QALYs were compared between LIPUS and control (a placebo device) from a payer and societal perspective using non-parametric bootstrapping. All costs are reported in 2015 Canadian dollars unless otherwise stated. RESULTS: With a cost per device of $3,995, the mean cost was significantly higher for patients treated with LIPUS versus placebo from a payer (mean increase = $3647, 95% confidence interval (CI) $3244 to $4070; p < 0.001) or a societal perspective (mean increase = $3425, 95% CI $1568 to $5283; p < 0.001). LIPUS did not provide a significant benefit in terms of QALYs gained (mean difference = 0.023 QALYs, 95% CI -0.035 to 0.069; p = 0.474). Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of LIPUS compared with placebo were $155 433/QALY from a payer perspective and $146 006/QALY from a societal perspective. CONCLUSION: At the current price, LIPUS is not cost-effective for fresh tibial fractures managed with intramedullary nailing. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2017;99-B:1526-32.

2017 American College of Rheumatology/American Association of Hip and Knee Surgeons Guideline for the Perioperative Management of Antirheumatic Medication in Patients With Rheumatic Diseases Undergoing Elective Total Hip or Total Knee Arthroplasty

OBJECTIVE: This collaboration between the American College of Rheumatology and the American Association of Hip and Knee Surgeons developed an evidence-based guideline for the perioperative management of antirheumatic drug therapy for adults with rheumatoid arthritis (RA), spondyloarthritis (SpA) including ankylosing spondylitis and psoriatic arthritis, juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA), or systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) undergoing elective total hip (THA) or total knee arthroplasty (TKA). METHODS: A panel of rheumatologists, orthopedic surgeons specializing in hip and knee arthroplasty, and methodologists was convened to construct the key clinical questions to be answered in the guideline. A multi-step systematic literature review was then conducted, from which evidence was synthesized for continuing versus withholding antirheumatic drug therapy and for optimal glucocorticoid management in the perioperative period. A Patient Panel was convened to determine patient values and preferences, and the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation methodology was used to rate the quality of evidence and the strength of recommendations, using a group consensus process through a convened Voting Panel of rheumatologists and orthopedic surgeons. The strength of the recommendation reflects the degree of certainty that benefits outweigh harms of the intervention, or vice versa, considering the quality of available evidence and the variability in patient values and preferences. RESULTS: The guideline addresses the perioperative use of antirheumatic drug therapy including traditional disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs, biologic agents, tofacitinib, and glucocorticoids in adults with RA, SpA, JIA, or SLE who are undergoing elective THA or TKA. It provides recommendations regarding when to continue, when to withhold, and when to restart these medications, and the optimal perioperative dosing of glucocorticoids. The guideline includes 7 recommendations, all of which are conditional and based on low- or moderate-quality evidence. CONCLUSION: This guideline should help decision-making by clinicians and patients regarding perioperative antirheumatic medication management at the time of elective THA or TKA. These conditional recommendations reflect the paucity of high-quality direct randomized controlled trial data.

2017 American College of Rheumatology/American Association of Hip and Knee Surgeons Guideline for the Perioperative Management of Antirheumatic Medication in Patients With Rheumatic Diseases Undergoing Elective Total Hip or Total Knee Arthroplasty

OBJECTIVE: This collaboration between the American College of Rheumatology and the American Association of Hip and Knee Surgeons developed an evidence-based guideline for the perioperative management of antirheumatic drug therapy for adults with rheumatoid arthritis (RA), spondyloarthritis (SpA) including ankylosing spondylitis and psoriatic arthritis, juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA), or systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) undergoing elective total hip (THA) or total knee arthroplasty (TKA). METHODS: A panel of rheumatologists, orthopedic surgeons specializing in hip and knee arthroplasty, and methodologists was convened to construct the key clinical questions to be answered in the guideline. A multi-step systematic literature review was then conducted, from which evidence was synthesized for continuing versus withholding antirheumatic drug therapy and for optimal glucocorticoid management in the perioperative period. A Patient Panel was convened to determine patient values and preferences, and the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation methodology was used to rate the quality of evidence and the strength of recommendations, using a group consensus process through a convened Voting Panel of rheumatologists and orthopedic surgeons. The strength of the recommendation reflects the degree of certainty that benefits outweigh harms of the intervention, or vice versa, considering the quality of available evidence and the variability in patient values and preferences. RESULTS: The guideline addresses the perioperative use of antirheumatic drug therapy including traditional disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs, biologic agents, tofacitinib, and glucocorticoids in adults with RA, SpA, JIA, or SLE who are undergoing elective THA or TKA. It provides recommendations regarding when to continue, when to withhold, and when to restart these medications, and the optimal perioperative dosing of glucocorticoids. The guideline includes 7 recommendations, all of which are conditional and based on low- or moderate-quality evidence. CONCLUSION: This guideline should help decision-making by clinicians and patients regarding perioperative antirheumatic medication management at the time of elective THA or TKA. These conditional recommendations reflect the paucity of high-quality direct randomized controlled trial data.

Mortality outcomes in patients transfused with fresher versus older red blood cells: a meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Among transfused patients, the effect of the duration of red blood cell storage on mortality remains unclear. This study aims to compare the mortality of patients who were transfused with fresher versus older red blood cells. METHODS: We performed an updated systematic search in the CENTRAL, MEDLINE, EMBASE and CINAHL databases, from January 2015 to October 2016. RCTs of hospitalized patients of any age comparing transfusion of fresher versus older red blood cells were eligible. We used a random-effects model to calculate pooled risk ratios (RRs) with corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI). RESULTS: We identified 14 randomized trials that enrolled 26 374 participants. All-cause mortality occurred in 1219 of 9531 (12·8%) patients who received a transfusion of fresher red blood cells and 1810 of 16 843 (10·7%) in those who received older red blood cells (RR: 1·04, 95% CI: 0·98-1·12, P = 0·90, I2 = 0%, high certainty for ruling out benefit of fresh blood, moderate certainty for ruling out harm of fresh blood). In six studies, in-hospital death occurred in 691 of 7479 (9·2%) patients receiving fresher red cells and 1291 of 14 757 (8·8%) receiving older red cells (RR: 1·06, 95% CI: 0·97-1·15, P = 0·81, I2 = 0%, high certainty for ruling out benefit of fresh blood, moderate certainty for ruling out harm of fresh blood). CONCLUSION: Transfusion of fresher red blood cells does not reduce overall or in-hospital mortality when compared with older red blood cells. Our results support the practice of transfusing patients with the oldest red blood cells available in the blood bank.

Quantifying the bias in the estimated treatment effect in randomized trials having interim analyses and a rule for early stopping for futility.

In this paper, we consider the potential bias in the estimated treatment effect obtained from clinical trials, the protocols of which include the possibility of interim analyses and an early termination of the study for reasons of futility. In particular, by considering the conditional power at an interim analysis, we derive analytic expressions for various parameters of interest: (i) the underestimation or overestimation of the treatment effect in studies that stop for futility; (ii) the impact of the interim analyses on the estimation of treatment effect in studies that are completed, i.e. that do not stop for futility; (iii) the overall estimation bias in the estimated treatment effect in a single study with such a stopping rule; and (iv) the probability of stopping at an interim analysis. We evaluate these general expressions numerically for typical trial scenarios. Results show that the parameters of interest depend on a number of factors, including the true underlying treatment effect, the difference that the trial is designed to detect, the study power, the number of planned interim analyses and what assumption is made about future data to be observed after an interim analysis. Because the probability of stopping early is small for many practical situations, the overall bias is often small, but a more serious issue is the potential for substantial underestimation of the treatment effect in studies that actually stop for futility. We also consider these ideas using data from an illustrative trial that did stop for futility at an interim analysis. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Guideline for opioid therapy and chronic noncancer pain

Guideline for opioid therapy and chronic noncancer pain: the objective is to inform the prescribing of opioids for adults with chronic noncancer pain.

Clinical Practice Guidelines From the AABB: Red Blood Cell Transfusion Thresholds and Storage

"IMPORTANCE: More than 100 million units of blood are collected worldwide each year, yet the indication for red blood cell (RBC) transfusion and the optimal length of RBC storage prior to transfusion are uncertain. OBJECTIVE: To provide recommendations for the target hemoglobin level for RBC transfusion among hospitalized adult patients who are hemodynamically stable and the length of time RBCs should be stored prior to transfusion. EVIDENCE REVIEW: Reference librarians conducted a literature search for randomized clinical trials (RCTs) evaluating hemoglobin thresholds for RBC transfusion (1950-May 2016) and RBC storage duration (1948-May 2016) without language restrictions. The results were summarized using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation method. For RBC transfusion thresholds, 31 RCTs included 12 587 participants and compared restrictive thresholds (transfusion not indicated until the hemoglobin level is 7-8 g/dL) with liberal thresholds (transfusion not indicated until the hemoglobin level is 9-10 g/dL). The summary estimates across trials demonstrated that restrictive RBC transfusion thresholds were not associated with higher rates of adverse clinical outcomes, including 30-day mortality, myocardial infarction, cerebrovascular accident, rebleeding, pneumonia, or thromboembolism. For RBC storage duration, 13 RCTs included 5515 participants randomly allocated to receive fresher blood or standard-issue blood. These RCTs demonstrated that fresher blood did not improve clinical outcomes. FINDINGS: It is good practice to consider the hemoglobin level, the overall clinical context, patient preferences, and alternative therapies when making transfusion decisions regarding an individual patient. Recommendation 1: a restrictive RBC transfusion threshold in which the transfusion is not indicated until the hemoglobin level is 7 g/dL is recommended for hospitalized adult patients who are hemodynamically stable, including critically ill patients, rather than when the hemoglobin level is 10 g/dL (strong recommendation, moderate quality evidence). A restrictive RBC transfusion threshold of 8 g/dL is recommended for patients undergoing orthopedic surgery, cardiac surgery, and those with preexisting cardiovascular disease (strong recommendation, moderate quality evidence). The restrictive transfusion threshold of 7 g/dL is likely comparable with 8 g/dL, but RCT evidence is not available for all patient categories. These recommendations do not apply to patients with acute coronary syndrome, severe thrombocytopenia (patients treated for hematological or oncological reasons who are at risk of bleeding), and chronic transfusion-dependent anemia (not recommended due to insufficient evidence). Recommendation 2: patients, including neonates, should receive RBC units selected at any point within their licensed dating period (standard issue) rather than limiting patients to transfusion of only fresh (storage length: <10 days) RBC units (strong recommendation, moderate quality evidence). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Research in RBC transfusion medicine has significantly advanced the science in recent years and provides high-quality evidence to inform guidelines. A restrictive transfusion threshold is safe in most clinical settings and the current blood banking practices of using standard-issue blood should be continued."

Covert stroke after non-cardiac surgery: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Overt stroke after non-cardiac surgery has a substantial impact on the duration and quality of life. Covert stroke in the non-surgical setting is much more common than overt stroke and is associated with an increased risk of cognitive decline and dementia. Little is known about covert stroke after non-cardiac, non-carotid artery surgery. METHODS: We undertook a prospective, international cohort study to determine the incidence of covert stroke after non-cardiac, non-carotid artery surgery. Eligible patients were ≥65 yr of age and were admitted to hospital for at least three nights after non-cardiac, non-carotid artery surgery. Patients underwent a brain magnetic resonance study between postoperative days 3 and 10. The main outcome was the incidence of perioperative covert stroke. RESULTS: We enrolled a total of 100 patients from six centres in four countries. The incidence of perioperative covert stroke was 10.0% (10/100 patients, 95% confidence interval 5.5-17.4%). Five of the six centres that enrolled patients reported an incident covert stroke, and covert stroke was found in patients undergoing major general (3/27), major orthopaedic (3/41), major urological or gynaecological (3/22), and low-risk surgery (1/12). CONCLUSIONS: This international multicentre study suggests that 1 in 10 patients ≥65 yr of age experiences a perioperative covert stroke. A larger study is required to determine the impact of perioperative covert stroke on patient-important outcomes. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT01369537.

Meta-analysis of antibiotics versus appendicectomy for non-perforated acute appendicitis.

BACKGROUND: For more than a century, appendicectomy has been the treatment of choice for appendicitis. Recent trials have challenged this view. This study assessed the benefits and harms of antibiotic therapy compared with appendicectomy in patients with non-perforated appendicitis. METHODS: A comprehensive search was conducted for randomized trials comparing antibiotic therapy with appendicectomy in patients with non-perforated appendicitis. Key outcomes were analysed using random-effects meta-analysis, and the quality of evidence was assessed using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach. RESULTS: Five studies including 1116 patients reported major complications in 25 (4·9 per cent) of 510 patients in the antibiotic and 41 (8·4 per cent) of 489 in the appendicectomy group: risk difference -2·6 (95 per cent c.i. -6·3 to 1·1) per cent (low-quality evidence). Minor complications occurred in 11 (2·2 per cent) of 510 and 61 (12·5 per cent) of 489 patients respectively: risk difference -7·2 (-18·1 to 3·8) per cent (very low-quality evidence). Of 550 patients in the antibiotic group, 47 underwent appendicectomy within 1 month: pooled estimate 8·2 (95 per cent c.i. 5·2 to 11·8) per cent (high-quality evidence). Within 1 year, appendicitis recurred in 114 of 510 patients in the antibiotic group: pooled estimate 22·6 (15·6 to 30·4) per cent (high-quality evidence). For every 100 patients with non-perforated appendicitis, initial antibiotic therapy compared with prompt appendicectomy may result in 92 fewer patients receiving surgery within the first month, and 23 more experiencing recurrent appendicitis within the first year. CONCLUSION: The choice of medical versus surgical management in patients with clearly uncomplicated appendicitis is value- and preference-dependent, suggesting a change in practice towards shared decision-making is necessary.

Fluid type and the use of renal replacement therapy in sepsis: a systematic review and network meta-analysis.

Fluid resuscitation, along with the early administration of antibiotics, is the cornerstone of treatment for patients with sepsis. However, whether differences in resuscitation fluids impact on the requirements for renal replacement therapy (RRT) remains unclear. To examine this issue, we performed a network meta-analysis (NMA), including direct and indirect comparisons, that addressed the effect of different resuscitation fluids on the use of RRT in patients with sepsis. The data sources MEDLINE, EMBASE, ACPJC, CINAHL and Cochrane Central Register were searched up to March 2014. Eligible studies included randomized trials reported in any language that enrolled adult patients with sepsis or septic shock and addressed the use of RRT associated with alternative resuscitation fluids. The risk of bias for individual studies and the overall certainty of the evidence were assessed. Ten studies (6664 patients) that included a total of nine direct comparisons were assessed. NMA at the four-node level showed that an increased risk of receiving RRT was associated with fluid resuscitation with starch versus crystalloid [odds ratio (OR) 1.39, 95% credibility interval (CrI) 1.17-1.66, high certainty]. The data suggested no difference between fluid resuscitation with albumin and crystalloid (OR 1.04, 95% CrI 0.78-1.38, moderate certainty) or starch (OR 0.74, 95% CrI 0.53-1.04, low certainty). NMA at the six-node level showed a decreased risk of receiving RRT with balanced crystalloid compared to heavy starch (OR 0.50, 95% CrI 0.34-0.74, moderate certainty) or light starch (OR 0.70, 95% CrI 0.49-0.99, high certainty). There was no significant difference between balanced crystalloid and saline (OR 0.85, 95% CrI 0.56-1.30, low certainty) or albumin (OR 0.82, 95% CrI 0.49-1.37, low certainty). Of note, these trials vary in terms of case mix, fluids evaluated, duration of fluid exposure and risk of bias. Imprecise estimates contributed to low confidence in most estimates of effect. Among the patients with sepsis, fluid resuscitation with crystalloids compared to starch resulted in reduced use of RRT; the same may be true for albumin versus starch.