ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES: Pandemic response in low-income countries (LICs) or settings often suffers from scarce epidemic surveillance and constrained mitigation capacity. The drivers of pandemic burden in such settings, and the impact of limited and delayed interventions remain poorly understood. METHODS: We analysed COVID-19 seroprevalence and all-cause excess deaths data from the peri-urban district of Kabwe, Zambia between March 2020 and September 2021 with a novel mathematical model. Data encompassed three consecutive waves caused by the wild-type, Beta and Delta variants. RESULTS: Across all three waves, we estimated a high cumulative attack rate, with 78% (95% credible interval [CrI] 71-85) of the population infected, and a high all-cause excess mortality, at 402 (95% CrI 277-473) deaths per 100,000 people. Ambitiously improving health care to a capacity similar to that in high-income settings could have averted up to 46% (95% CrI 41-53) of accrued excess deaths, if implemented from June 2020 onward. An early and accelerated vaccination rollout could have achieved the highest reductions in deaths. Had vaccination started as in some high-income settings in December 2020 and with the same daily capacity (doses per 100 population), up to 68% (95% CrI 64-71) of accrued excess deaths could have been averted. Slower rollouts would have still averted 62% (95% CrI 58-68), 54% (95% CrI 49-61) or 26% (95% CrI 20-38) of excess deaths if matching the average vaccination capacity of upper-middle-, lower-middle- or LICs, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Robust quantitative analyses of pandemic data are of pressing need to inform future global pandemic preparedness commitments.
ABSTRACT
Background: With the aim of improving treatment retention in patients with the onset of alcohol-related liver disease (ArLD), we designed a blended intervention (brief motivational intervention + 'serious game' (SG)). We present the participatory design methodology and outcomes and the usability assessment of the intervention. Methods: (1) The design of the SG was based on the outcomes of two 3-h co-creation sessions with 37 participants (healthcare and technology professionals, patients, and patients' relatives). The brief face-to-face motivational intervention was based on the 5 As Model and adapted to the ArLD population. (2) Usability pilot study: 20 participants (10 ArLD patients + 10 healthcare professionals) received the intervention. System Usability Scale (SUS) and Post-Study System Usability Questionnaire (PSSUQ) were applied to assess the SG usability and patients' satisfaction with it. Weekly semi-structured interviews on the phone were conducted to identify the preferred elements in the SG and those aspects that should be improved. Results: (1) Design: an SG in the form of a gamified web app, consisting of a daily activity for six weeks and adapted brief motivational interviewing. (2) Usability pilot study: usability results were excellent for both patients and healthcare professionals (SUS median score = 85). The general usability, the quality of the information provided by the SG and the quality of the interface were very positively rated in the PSSUQ (overall median score = 2, IQR = 1-2). The best-rated aspects were the provision of feedback, the use of metaphors and the application of audiovisual material. Changes in the design, response mechanics and content were applied after the study. Conclusions: The usability and acceptability of an intervention for increasing retention to treatment in patients with recent onset of ArLD and AUD were excellent for patients and healthcare professionals. A randomized-controlled trial is required to test the efficacy of this approach.
ABSTRACT
Mating induces behavioral and physiological changes in female insects-collectively referred to as the female post-mating response (PMR)-that facilitate the production of progeny. PMRs are elicited by transfer of male-derived seminal components during mating, but are altered by other factors, including adult age. Increased female age is often accompanied by declines in fertility. However, mating shortly after emergence also impacts fertility in the insect model Drosophila melanogaster. Here, we determined the age post-emergence when females of the vector mosquito Aedes aegypti can be inseminated and blood-feed. We next examined fecundity, fertility, and the storage of sperm in the female reproductive tract in "young" (30-41 hours-old) and "old" (2- and 3-week-old) females, finding that blood-feeding began at 14 hours, and mating at â¼24 hours post-emergence. Although young females consumed smaller blood quantities and stored fewer sperm, they were similarly fertile to 4-day-old controls. Old females, however, suffered significant declines in fecundity by 2 weeks of age. Our results show that female Ae. aegypti start to become sexually receptive 1 day after their emergence, but can ingest blood much sooner, suggesting that mating is not a prerequisite to blood-feeding, and that females can ingest an arbovirus infected blood-meal shortly after emergence.
Subject(s)
Aedes , Dengue , Male , Female , Animals , Aedes/physiology , Drosophila melanogaster , Semen , Mosquito Vectors/physiology , Fertility , Insemination , Spermatozoa/physiologyABSTRACT
As the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic progressed, distinct variants emerged and dominated in England. These variants, Wildtype, Alpha, Delta, and Omicron were characterized by variations in transmissibility and severity. We used a robust mathematical model and Bayesian inference framework to analyse epidemiological surveillance data from England. We quantified the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), therapeutics, and vaccination on virus transmission and severity. Each successive variant had a higher intrinsic transmissibility. Omicron (BA.1) had the highest basic reproduction number at 8.3 (95% credible interval (CrI) 7.7-8.8). Varying levels of NPIs were crucial in controlling virus transmission until population immunity accumulated. Immune escape properties of Omicron decreased effective levels of immunity in the population by a third. Furthermore, in contrast to previous studies, we found Alpha had the highest basic infection fatality ratio (2.9%, 95% CrI 2.7-3.2), followed by Delta (2.2%, 95% CrI 2.0-2.4), Wildtype (1.2%, 95% CrI 1.1-1.2), and Omicron (0.7%, 95% CrI 0.6-0.8). Our findings highlight the importance of continued surveillance. Long-term strategies for monitoring and maintaining effective immunity against SARS-CoV-2 are critical to inform the role of NPIs to effectively manage future variants with potentially higher intrinsic transmissibility and severe outcomes.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Humans , SARS-CoV-2/genetics , Bayes Theorem , COVID-19/epidemiology , England/epidemiologyABSTRACT
The Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) has been associated with gastric cancer (GC), one of the deadliest malignancies in Chile and the world. Little is known about Chilean EBV strains. This study aims to investigate the frequency and genetic diversity of EBV in GC in patients in southern Chile. To evaluate the prevalence of EBV in GC patients from the Chilean population, we studied 54 GC samples using the gold standard detection method of EBV-encoded small RNA (EBER). The EBV-positive samples were subjected to amplification and sequencing of the Epstein-Barr virus nuclear protein 3A (EBNA3A) gene to evaluate the genetic diversity of EBV strains circulating in southern Chile. In total, 22.2% of the GC samples were EBV-positive and significantly associated with diffuse-type histology (p = 0.003). Phylogenetic analyses identified EBV-1 and EBV-2 in the GC samples, showing genetic diversity among Chilean isolates. This work provides important information for an epidemiological follow-up of the different EBV subtypes that may cause GC in southern Chile.
Subject(s)
Epstein-Barr Virus Infections , Stomach Neoplasms , Humans , Herpesvirus 4, Human/genetics , Stomach Neoplasms/epidemiology , Stomach Neoplasms/genetics , Stomach Neoplasms/pathology , Epstein-Barr Virus Infections/complications , Epstein-Barr Virus Infections/epidemiology , Chile/epidemiology , Phylogeny , Genetic VariationABSTRACT
In an emergency epidemic response, data providers supply data on a best-faith effort to modellers and analysts who are typically the end user of data collected for other primary purposes such as to inform patient care. Thus, modellers who analyse secondary data have limited ability to influence what is captured. During an emergency response, models themselves are often under constant development and require both stability in their data inputs and flexibility to incorporate new inputs as novel data sources become available. This dynamic landscape is challenging to work with. Here we outline a data pipeline used in the ongoing COVID-19 response in the UK that aims to address these issues. A data pipeline is a sequence of steps to carry the raw data through to a processed and useable model input, along with the appropriate metadata and context. In ours, each data type had an individual processing report, designed to produce outputs that could be easily combined and used downstream. Automated checks were in-built and added as new pathologies emerged. These cleaned outputs were collated at different geographic levels to provide standardised datasets. Finally, a human validation step was an essential component of the analysis pathway and permitted more nuanced issues to be captured. This framework allowed the pipeline to grow in complexity and volume and facilitated the diverse range of modelling approaches employed by researchers. Additionally, every report or modelling output could be traced back to the specific data version that informed it ensuring reproducibility of results. Our approach has been used to facilitate fast-paced analysis and has evolved over time. Our framework and its aspirations are applicable to many settings beyond COVID-19 data, for example for other outbreaks such as Ebola, or where routine and regular analyses are required.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Humans , COVID-19/epidemiology , Public Health , Reproducibility of Results , Disease OutbreaksABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: The UK was the first country to start national COVID-19 vaccination programmes, initially administering doses 3 weeks apart. However, early evidence of high vaccine effectiveness after the first dose and the emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 alpha variant prompted the UK to extend the interval between doses to 12 weeks. In this study, we aimed to quantify the effect of delaying the second vaccine dose in England. METHODS: We used a previously described model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, calibrated to COVID-19 surveillance data from England, including hospital admissions, hospital occupancy, seroprevalence data, and population-level PCR testing data, using a Bayesian evidence-synthesis framework. We modelled and compared the epidemic trajectory in the counterfactual scenario in which vaccine doses were administered 3 weeks apart against the real reported vaccine roll-out schedule of 12 weeks. We estimated and compared the resulting numbers of daily infections, hospital admissions, and deaths. In sensitivity analyses, we investigated scenarios spanning a range of vaccine effectiveness and waning assumptions. FINDINGS: In the period from Dec 8, 2020, to Sept 13, 2021, the number of individuals who received a first vaccine dose was higher under the 12-week strategy than the 3-week strategy. For this period, we estimated that delaying the interval between the first and second COVID-19 vaccine doses from 3 to 12 weeks averted a median (calculated as the median of the posterior sample) of 58 000 COVID-19 hospital admissions (291 000 cumulative hospitalisations [95% credible interval 275 000-319 000] under the 3-week strategy vs 233 000 [229 000-238 000] under the 12-week strategy) and 10 100 deaths (64 800 deaths [60 200-68 900] vs 54 700 [52 800-55 600]). Similarly, we estimated that the 3-week strategy would have resulted in more infections compared with the 12-week strategy. Across all sensitivity analyses the 3-week strategy resulted in a greater number of hospital admissions. In results by age group, the 12-week strategy led to more hospitalisations and deaths in older people in spring 2021, but fewer following the emergence of the delta variant during summer 2021. INTERPRETATION: England's delayed-second-dose vaccination strategy was informed by early real-world data on vaccine effectiveness in the context of limited vaccine supplies in a growing epidemic. Our study shows that rapidly providing partial (single-dose) vaccine-induced protection to a larger proportion of the population was successful in reducing the burden of COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths overall. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research; UK Medical Research Council; Community Jameel; Wellcome Trust; UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office; Australian National Health and Medical Research Council; and EU.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 Vaccines , COVID-19 , Humans , Aged , Infant , Bayes Theorem , Seroepidemiologic Studies , Australia , SARS-CoV-2 , EnglandABSTRACT
El dens evaginatus es una anomalía dentaria de forma que consiste en una elevación del esmalte en forma de cúspide o tubérculo que se ubica en el surco central o en la zona bucal de las cúspides de premolares o molares, así como en las superficies palatinas de dientes anteriores. La estructura interna del tubérculo está formada por una capa de esmalte que recubre un núcleo de dentina el cual contiene, en el 90% de los casos una evaginación de tejido pulpar. En este artículo se reporta el caso de un paciente de ascendencia asiática con dos premolares inferiores con dens evaginatus las cuales fueron abordadas de diferente forma: una premolar recibió tratamiento preventivo y mínimamente invasivo mientras que la otra premolar requirió un tratamiento pulpar
Dens evaginatus é uma anormalidade dentaria que consiste em uma elevação do esmalte em forma de cúspide ou tubérculo que se localiza no sulco central ou na zona bucal das cúspides de pré-molares ou molares, bem como nas superficies palatinas dos dentes anteriores. A estructura interna do tubérculo é formada por uma camada de esmalte que recobre um núcleo de dentina que contém, em 90% dos casos, uma evaginação de tecido pulpar. Neste artigo relata o caso de um paciente de ascendência asiática com duas pré-molares inferiores com dens evaginatus, que foram abordados de forma diferente: um pré-molar recebeu tratamento preventivo e minimamente invasivo enquanto a outra pré-molar necessitou de tratamento pulpar
Dens evaginatus is a dental abnormality consisting of a cusp- or tubercle-shaped elevation of the enamel that is in the central groove or in the buccal area of the cusps of premolars or molars, as well as on the palatal surfaces of teeth. The internal structure of the tubercle is formed by a layer of enamel that covers a core of dentin which contains, in 90% of cases, an evagination of pulp tissue. This article reports the case of a patient of Asian descent with two lower premolars with dens evaginatus, which were approached differently: one premolar received preventive and minimally invasive treatment while the other premolar required root canal treatment.
Subject(s)
Humans , Male , ChildABSTRACT
Substance use disorder (SUD) is a common comorbidity in individuals with bipolar disorder (BD), and it is associated with a severe course of illness, making early identification of the risk factors for SUD in BD warranted. We aimed to identify, through machine-learning models, the factors associated with different types of SUD in BD. We recruited 508 individuals with BD from a specialized unit. Lifetime SUDs were defined according to the DSM criteria. Random forest (RF) models were trained to identify the presence of (i) any (SUD) in the total sample, (ii) alcohol use disorder (AUD) in the total sample, (iii) AUD co-occurrence with at least another SUD in the total sample (AUD+SUD), and (iv) any other SUD among BD patients with AUD. Relevant variables selected by the RFs were considered as independent variables in multiple logistic regressions to predict SUDs, adjusting for relevant covariates. AUD+SUD could be predicted in BD at an individual level with a sensitivity of 75% and a specificity of 75%. The presence of AUD+SUD was positively associated with having hypomania as the first affective episode (OR = 4.34 95% CI = 1.42-13.31), and the presence of hetero-aggressive behavior (OR = 3.15 95% CI = 1.48-6.74). Machine-learning models might be useful instruments to predict the risk of SUD in BD, but their efficacy is limited when considering socio-demographic or clinical factors alone.
ABSTRACT
The integration of micro- and nanoelectronics into or onto biomedical devices can facilitate advanced diagnostics and treatments of digestive disorders, cardiovascular diseases, and cancers. Recent developments in gastrointestinal endoscopy and balloon catheter technologies introduce promising paths for minimally invasive surgeries to treat these diseases. However, current therapeutic endoscopy systems fail to meet requirements in multifunctionality, biocompatibility, and safety, particularly when integrated with bioelectronic devices. Here, we report materials, device designs, and assembly schemes for transparent and stable cubic silicon carbide (3C-SiC)-based bioelectronic systems that facilitate tissue ablation, with the capability for integration onto the tips of endoscopes. The excellent optical transparency of SiC-on-glass (SoG) allows for direct observation of areas of interest, with superior electronic functionalities that enable multiple biological sensing and stimulation capabilities to assist in electrical-based ablation procedures. Experimental studies on phantom, vegetable, and animal tissues demonstrated relatively short treatment times and low electric field required for effective lesion removal using our SoG bioelectronic system. In vivo experiments on an animal model were conducted to explore the versatility of SoG electrodes for peripheral nerve stimulation, showing an exciting possibility for the therapy of neural disorders through electrical excitation. The multifunctional features of SoG integrated devices indicate their high potential for minimally invasive, cost-effective, and outcome-enhanced surgical tools, across a wide range of biomedical applications.
Subject(s)
Carbon Compounds, Inorganic , Silicon Compounds , Animals , Electronics , ElectrodesABSTRACT
The literature in the field of health communication has shown the existence of gaps between groups of different socioeconomic levels both in exposure to health campaign messages and in the influence these messages exert on individuals' health decisions. In this article, we examine the association between educational attainment and exposure to messages promoting COVID-19 preventive behaviors, namely, physical distancing, handwashing, and masks wearing in Chile. In addition, we model the association between exposure to these messages and the intentions to carry out the behaviors, as well as the differences attributable to educational attainment in the influence of exposure. A cross-sectional population survey combining online and telephone techniques was conducted among 3,592 adults in Chile. Regression analysis revealed that lower educational level and frequency of television use were positively associated with greater exposure to preventive messages. Exposure to preventive messages, in turn, was positively associated with intentions to maintain the three behaviors examined. Individuals in the lower educational attainment group had lower intentions to engage in two of the three behaviors, but those in these segments who were more exposed to preventive messages were as likely as their more educated counterparts to intend wearing masks and adhering to physical distance. The findings of this study underscore the importance of reaching the least educated segments with campaign messages in the context of public health crisis, since these messages can close gaps between the more and less educated group in their intentions to engage in preventive behaviors.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Adult , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , Chile , Cross-Sectional Studies , Humans , Intention , Surveys and QuestionnairesABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: England's COVID-19 roadmap out of lockdown policy set out the timeline and conditions for the stepwise lifting of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) as vaccination roll-out continued, with step one starting on March 8, 2021. In this study, we assess the roadmap, the impact of the delta (B.1.617.2) variant of SARS-CoV-2, and potential future epidemic trajectories. METHODS: This mathematical modelling study was done to assess the UK Government's four-step process to easing lockdown restrictions in England, UK. We extended a previously described model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to incorporate vaccination and multi-strain dynamics to explicitly capture the emergence of the delta variant. We calibrated the model to English surveillance data, including hospital admissions, hospital occupancy, seroprevalence data, and population-level PCR testing data using a Bayesian evidence synthesis framework, then modelled the potential trajectory of the epidemic for a range of different schedules for relaxing NPIs. We estimated the resulting number of daily infections and hospital admissions, and daily and cumulative deaths. Three scenarios spanning a range of optimistic to pessimistic vaccine effectiveness, waning natural immunity, and cross-protection from previous infections were investigated. We also considered three levels of mixing after the lifting of restrictions. FINDINGS: The roadmap policy was successful in offsetting the increased transmission resulting from lifting NPIs starting on March 8, 2021, with increasing population immunity through vaccination. However, because of the emergence of the delta variant, with an estimated transmission advantage of 76% (95% credible interval [95% CrI] 69-83) over alpha, fully lifting NPIs on June 21, 2021, as originally planned might have led to 3900 (95% CrI 1500-5700) peak daily hospital admissions under our central parameter scenario. Delaying until July 19, 2021, reduced peak hospital admissions by three fold to 1400 (95% CrI 700-1700) per day. There was substantial uncertainty in the epidemic trajectory, with particular sensitivity to the transmissibility of delta, level of mixing, and estimates of vaccine effectiveness. INTERPRETATION: Our findings show that the risk of a large wave of COVID-19 hospital admissions resulting from lifting NPIs can be substantially mitigated if the timing of NPI relaxation is carefully balanced against vaccination coverage. However, with the delta variant, it might not be possible to fully lift NPIs without a third wave of hospital admissions and deaths, even if vaccination coverage is high. Variants of concern, their transmissibility, vaccine uptake, and vaccine effectiveness must be carefully monitored as countries relax pandemic control measures. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research, UK Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, and UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 Vaccines/administration & dosage , COVID-19/prevention & control , COVID-19/transmission , Communicable Disease Control/organization & administration , SARS-CoV-2 , Vaccination Coverage/organization & administration , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/mortality , England/epidemiology , Hospital Mortality/trends , Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data , Humans , Models, Theoretical , Patient Admission/statistics & numerical dataABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Hospitals in England have undergone considerable change to address the surge in demand imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic. The impact of this on emergency department (ED) attendances is unknown, especially for non-COVID-19 related emergencies. METHODS: This analysis is an observational study of ED attendances at the Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust (ICHNT). We calibrated auto-regressive integrated moving average time-series models of ED attendances using historic (2015-2019) data. Forecasted trends were compared to present year ICHNT data for the period between March 12, 2020 (when England implemented the first COVID-19 public health measure) and May 31, 2020. We compared ICHTN trends with publicly available regional and national data. Lastly, we compared hospital admissions made via the ED and in-hospital mortality at ICHNT during the present year to the historic 5-year average. RESULTS: ED attendances at ICHNT decreased by 35% during the period after the first lockdown was imposed on March 12, 2020 and before May 31, 2020, reflecting broader trends seen for ED attendances across all England regions, which fell by approximately 50% for the same time frame. For ICHNT, the decrease in attendances was mainly amongst those aged < 65 years and those arriving by their own means (e.g. personal or public transport) and not correlated with any of the spatial dependencies analysed such as increasing distance from postcode of residence to the hospital. Emergency admissions of patients without COVID-19 after March 12, 2020 fell by 48%; we did not observe a significant change to the crude mortality risk in patients without COVID-19 (RR 1.13, 95%CI 0.94-1.37, p = 0.19). CONCLUSIONS: Our study findings reflect broader trends seen across England and give an indication how emergency healthcare seeking has drastically changed. At ICHNT, we find that a larger proportion arrived by ambulance and that hospitalisation outcomes of patients without COVID-19 did not differ from previous years. The extent to which these findings relate to ED avoidance behaviours compared to having sought alternative emergency health services outside of hospital remains unknown. National analyses and strategies to streamline emergency services in England going forward are urgently needed.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Pandemics , Communicable Disease Control , Emergency Service, Hospital , Hospitals , Humans , London , Retrospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2ABSTRACT
Giant piezoresistive effect enables the development of ultrasensitive sensing devices to address the increasing demands from hi-tech applications such as space exploration and self-driving cars. The discovery of the giant piezoresistive effect by optoelectronic coupling leads to a new strategy for enhancing the sensitivity of mechanical sensors, particularly with light from light-emitting diodes (LEDs). This paper reports on the piezoresistive effect in a 3C-SiC/Si heterostructure with a bonded LED that can reach a gauge factor (GF) as high as 18â¯000. This value represents an approximately 1000 times improvement compared to the configuration without a bonded LED. This GF is one of the highest GFs reported to date for the piezoresistive effect in semiconductors. The generation of carrier concentration gradient in the top thin 3C-SiC film under illumination from the LED coupling with the tuning current contributes to the modulation of the piezoresistive effect in a 3C-SiC/Si heterojunction. In addition, the feasibility of using different types of LEDs as the tools for modulating the piezoresistive effect is investigated by evaluating lateral photovoltage and photocurrent under LED's illumination. The generated lateral photovoltage and photocurrent are as high as 14 mV and 47.2 µA, respectively. Recent technologies for direct bonding of micro-LEDs on a Si-based device and the discovery reported here may have a significant impact on mechanical sensors.
Subject(s)
Cannabis , Hallucinogens , Pharmaceutical Preparations , Humans , Legislation, Drug , Public Health , Public PolicyABSTRACT
We fitted a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in care homes and the community to regional surveillance data for England. Compared with other approaches, our model provides a synthesis of multiple surveillance data streams into a single coherent modeling framework, allowing transmission and severity to be disentangled from features of the surveillance system. Of the control measures implemented, only national lockdown brought the reproduction number (Rt eff) below 1 consistently; if introduced 1 week earlier, it could have reduced deaths in the first wave from an estimated 48,600 to 25,600 [95% credible interval (CrI): 15,900 to 38,400]. The infection fatality ratio decreased from 1.00% (95% CrI: 0.85 to 1.21%) to 0.79% (95% CrI: 0.63 to 0.99%), suggesting improved clinical care. The infection fatality ratio was higher in the elderly residing in care homes (23.3%, 95% CrI: 14.7 to 35.2%) than those residing in the community (7.9%, 95% CrI: 5.9 to 10.3%). On 2 December 2020, England was still far from herd immunity, with regional cumulative infection incidence between 7.6% (95% CrI: 5.4 to 10.2%) and 22.3% (95% CrI: 19.4 to 25.4%) of the population. Therefore, any vaccination campaign will need to achieve high coverage and a high degree of protection in vaccinated individuals to allow nonpharmaceutical interventions to be lifted without a resurgence of transmission.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Epidemics , Aged , Communicable Disease Control , England/epidemiology , Humans , SARS-CoV-2ABSTRACT
The standardization of cannabis doses is a priority for research, policy-making, clinical and harm-reduction interventions and consumer security. Scientists have called for standard units of dosing for cannabis, similar to those used for alcohol. A Standard Joint Unit (SJU) would facilitate preventive and intervention models in ways similar to the Standard Drink (SD). Learning from the SD experiences allows researchers to tackle emerging barriers to the SJU by applying modern forecasting methods. During a workshop at the Lisbon Addictions Conference 2019, a back-casting foresight method was used to address challenges and achieve consensus in developing an SJU. Thirty-two professionals from 13 countries and 10 disciplines participated. Descriptive analysis of the workshop was carried out by the organizers and shared with the participants in order to suggest amendments. Several characteristics of the SJU were defined: (1) core values: easy-to use, universal, focused on THC, accurate, and accessible; (2) key challenges: sudden changes in patterns of use, heterogeneity of cannabis compounds as well as in administration routes, variations over time in THC concentrations, and of laws that regulate the legal status of recreational and medical cannabis use); and (3) facilitators: previous experience with standardized measurements, funding opportunities, multi-stakeholder support, high prevalence of cannabis users, and widespread changes in legislation. Participants also identified three initial steps for the implementation of a SJU by 2030: (1) Building a task-force to develop a consensus-based SJU; (2) Expanded available national-level data; (3) Linking SJU consumption to the concept of "risky use," based on evidence of harms.