Higher thermal plasticity in flowering phenology increases flowering output.

Ongoing climate change poses an increasing threat to biodiversity. To avoid decline or extinction, species need to either adjust or adapt to new environmental conditions or track their climatic niches across space. In sessile organisms such as plants, phenotypic plasticity can help maintain fitness in variable and even novel environmental conditions and is therefore likely to play an important role in allowing them to survive climate change, particularly in the short term. Understanding a species' response to rising temperature is crucial for planning well-targeted and cost-effective conservation measures. We sampled seeds of three Hypericum species (H. maculatum, H. montanum, and H. perforatum), from a total of 23 populations originating from different parts of their native distribution areas in Europe. We grew them under four different temperature regimes in a greenhouse to simulate current and predicted future climatic conditions in the distribution areas. We measured flowering start, flower count, and subsequent seed weight, allowing us to study variations in the thermal plasticity of flowering phenology and its relation to fitness. Our results show that individuals flowered earlier with increasing temperature, while the degree of phenological plasticity varied among species. More specifically, the plasticity of H. maculatum varied depending on population origin, with individuals from the leading range edge being less plastic. Importantly, we show a positive relationship between higher plasticity and increased flower production, indicating adaptive phenological plasticity. The observed connection between plasticity and fitness supports the idea that plasticity may be adaptive. This study underlines the need for information on plasticity for predicting species' potential to thrive under global change and the need for studies on whether higher phenotypic plasticity is currently being selected as natural populations experience a rapidly changing climate.

Recent range shifts of moths, butterflies, and birds are driven by the breadth of their climatic niche.

Species are altering their ranges as a response to climate change, but the magnitude and direction of observed range shifts vary considerably among species. The ability to persist in current areas and colonize new areas plays a crucial role in determining which species will thrive and which decline as climate change progresses. Several studies have sought to identify characteristics, such as morphological and life-history traits, that could explain differences in the capability of species to shift their ranges together with a changing climate. These characteristics have explained variation in range shifts only sporadically, thus offering an uncertain tool for discerning responses among species. As long-term selection to past climates have shaped species' tolerances, metrics describing species' contemporary climatic niches may provide an alternative means for understanding responses to on-going climate change. Species that occur in a broader range of climatic conditions may hold greater tolerance to climatic variability and could therefore more readily maintain their historical ranges, while species with more narrow tolerances may only persist if they are able to shift in space to track their climatic niche. Here, we provide a first-filter test of the effect of climatic niche dimensions on shifts in the leading range edges in three relatively well-dispersing species groups. Based on the realized changes in the northern range edges of 383 moth, butterfly, and bird species across a boreal 1,100 km latitudinal gradient over c. 20 years, we show that while most morphological or life-history traits were not strongly connected with range shifts, moths and birds occupying a narrower thermal niche and butterflies occupying a broader moisture niche across their European distribution show stronger shifts towards the north. Our results indicate that the climatic niche may be important for predicting responses under climate change and as such warrants further investigation of potential mechanistic underpinnings.

When and how can we predict adaptive responses to climate change?

Predicting if, when, and how populations can adapt to climate change constitutes one of the greatest challenges in science today. Here, we build from contributions to the special issue on evolutionary adaptation to climate change, a survey of its authors, and recent literature to explore the limits and opportunities for predicting adaptive responses to climate change. We outline what might be predictable now, in the future, and perhaps never even with our best efforts. More accurate predictions are expected for traits characterized by a well-understood mapping between genotypes and phenotypes and traits experiencing strong, direct selection due to climate change. A meta-analysis revealed an overall moderate trait heritability and evolvability in studies performed under future climate conditions but indicated no significant change between current and future climate conditions, suggesting neither more nor less genetic variation for adapting to future climates. Predicting population persistence and evolutionary rescue remains uncertain, especially for the many species without sufficient ecological data. Still, when polled, authors contributing to this special issue were relatively optimistic about our ability to predict future evolutionary responses to climate change. Predictions will improve as we expand efforts to understand diverse organisms, their ecology, and their adaptive potential. Advancements in functional genomic resources, especially their extension to non-model species and the union of evolutionary experiments and "omics," should also enhance predictions. Although predicting evolutionary responses to climate change remains challenging, even small advances will reduce the substantial uncertainties surrounding future evolutionary responses to climate change.