Machine Learning Prediction Models for Diagnosing Hepatocellular Carcinoma with HCV-related Chronic Liver Disease.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Considered as one of the most recurrent types of liver malignancy, Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) needs to be assessed in a non-invasive way. The objective of the current study is to develop prediction models for Chronic Hepatitis C (CHC)-related HCC using machine learning techniques. METHODS: A dataset, for 4423 CHC patients, was investigated to identify the significant parameters for predicting HCC presence. In this study, several machine learning techniques (Classification and regression tree, alternating decision tree, reduce pruning error tree and linear regression algorithm) were used to build HCC classification models for prediction of HCC presence. RESULTS: Age, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), alkaline phosphate (ALP), albumin, and total bilirubin attributes were statistically found to be associated with HCC presence. Several HCC classification models were constructed using several machine learning algorithms. The proposed HCC classification models provide adequate area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and high accuracy of HCC diagnosis. AUROC ranges between 95.5% and 99%, plus overall accuracy between 93.2% and 95.6%. CONCLUSION: Models with simplistic factors have the power to predict the existence of HCC with outstanding performance.

Comparison of Machine Learning Approaches for Prediction of Advanced Liver Fibrosis in Chronic Hepatitis C Patients.

BACKGROUND/AIM: Using machine learning approaches as non-invasive methods have been used recently as an alternative method in staging chronic liver diseases for avoiding the drawbacks of biopsy. This study aims to evaluate different machine learning techniques in prediction of advanced fibrosis by combining the serum bio-markers and clinical information to develop the classification models. METHODS: A prospective cohort of 39,567 patients with chronic hepatitis C was divided into two sets-one categorized as mild to moderate fibrosis (F0-F2), and the other categorized as advanced fibrosis (F3-F4) according to METAVIR score. Decision tree, genetic algorithm, particle swarm optimization, and multi-linear regression models for advanced fibrosis risk prediction were developed. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was performed to evaluate the performance of the proposed models. RESULTS: Age, platelet count, AST, and albumin were found to be statistically significant to advanced fibrosis. The machine learning algorithms under study were able to predict advanced fibrosis in patients with HCC with AUROC ranging between 0.73 and 0.76 and accuracy between 66.3 and 84.4 percent. CONCLUSIONS: Machine-learning approaches could be used as alternative methods in prediction of the risk of advanced liver fibrosis due to chronic hepatitis C.

Accurate Prediction of Advanced Liver Fibrosis Using the Decision Tree Learning Algorithm in Chronic Hepatitis C Egyptian Patients.

Background/Aim. Respectively with the prevalence of chronic hepatitis C in the world, using noninvasive methods as an alternative method in staging chronic liver diseases for avoiding the drawbacks of biopsy is significantly increasing. The aim of this study is to combine the serum biomarkers and clinical information to develop a classification model that can predict advanced liver fibrosis. Methods. 39,567 patients with chronic hepatitis C were included and randomly divided into two separate sets. Liver fibrosis was assessed via METAVIR score; patients were categorized as mild to moderate (F0-F2) or advanced (F3-F4) fibrosis stages. Two models were developed using alternating decision tree algorithm. Model 1 uses six parameters, while model 2 uses four, which are similar to FIB-4 features except alpha-fetoprotein instead of alanine aminotransferase. Sensitivity and receiver operating characteristic curve were performed to evaluate the performance of the proposed models. Results. The best model achieved 86.2% negative predictive value and 0.78 ROC with 84.8% accuracy which is better than FIB-4. Conclusions. The risk of advanced liver fibrosis, due to chronic hepatitis C, could be predicted with high accuracy using decision tree learning algorithm that could be used to reduce the need to assess the liver biopsy.