Disentangling the relationships of body mass index and circulating sex hormone concentrations in mammographic density using Mendelian randomization.

PURPOSE: Mammographic density phenotypes, adjusted for age and body mass index (BMI), are strong predictors of breast cancer risk. BMI is associated with mammographic density measures, but the role of circulating sex hormone concentrations is less clear. We investigated the relationship between BMI, circulating sex hormone concentrations, and mammographic density phenotypes using Mendelian randomization (MR). METHODS: We applied two-sample MR approaches to assess the association between genetically predicted circulating concentrations of sex hormones [estradiol, testosterone, sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG)], BMI, and mammographic density phenotypes (dense and non-dense area). We created instrumental variables from large European ancestry-based genome-wide association studies and applied estimates to mammographic density phenotypes in up to 14,000 women of European ancestry. We performed analyses overall and by menopausal status. RESULTS: Genetically predicted BMI was positively associated with non-dense area (IVW: ß = 1.79; 95% CI = 1.58, 2.00; p = 9.57 × 10-63) and inversely associated with dense area (IVW: ß = - 0.37; 95% CI = - 0.51,- 0.23; p = 4.7 × 10-7). We observed weak evidence for an association of circulating sex hormone concentrations with mammographic density phenotypes, specifically inverse associations between genetically predicted testosterone concentration and dense area (ß = - 0.22; 95% CI = - 0.38, - 0.053; p = 0.009) and between genetically predicted estradiol concentration and non-dense area (ß = - 3.32; 95% CI = - 5.83, - 0.82; p = 0.009), although results were not consistent across a range of MR approaches. CONCLUSION: Our findings support a positive causal association between BMI and mammographic non-dense area and an inverse association between BMI and dense area. Evidence was weaker and inconsistent for a causal effect of circulating sex hormone concentrations on mammographic density phenotypes. Based on our findings, associations between circulating sex hormone concentrations and mammographic density phenotypes are weak at best.

A novel serum extracellular vesicle protein signature to monitor glioblastoma tumor progression.

Detection of tumor progression in patients with glioblastoma remains a major challenge. Extracellular vesicles (EVs) are potential biomarkers and can be detected in the blood of patients with glioblastoma. In our study, we evaluated the potential of serum-derived EVs from glioblastoma patients to serve as biomarker for tumor progression. EVs from serum of glioblastoma patients and healthy volunteers were separated by size exclusion chromatography and ultracentrifugation. EV markers were defined by using a proximity-extension assay and bead-based flow cytometry. Tumor progression was defined according to modified RANO criteria. EVs from the serum of glioblastoma patients (n = 67) showed an upregulation of CD29, CD44, CD81, CD146, C1QA and histone H3 as compared to serum EVs from healthy volunteers (P value range: <.0001 to .08). For two independent cohorts of glioblastoma patients, we noted upregulation of C1QA, CD44 and histone H3 upon tumor progression, but not in patients with stable disease. In a multivariable logistic regression analysis, a combination of CD29, CD44, CD81, C1QA and histone H3 correlated with RANO-defined tumor progression with an AUC of 0.76. Measurement of CD29, CD44, CD81, C1QA and histone H3 in serum-derived EVs of glioblastoma patients, along with standard MRI assessment, has the potential to improve detection of true tumor progression and thus could be a useful biomarker for clinical decision making.

Incorporating progesterone receptor expression into the PREDICT breast prognostic model.

BACKGROUND: Predict Breast (www.predict.nhs.uk) is an online prognostication and treatment benefit tool for early invasive breast cancer. The aim of this study was to incorporate the prognostic effect of progesterone receptor (PR) status into a new version of PREDICT and to compare its performance to the current version (2.2). METHOD: The prognostic effect of PR status was based on the analysis of data from 45,088 European patients with breast cancer from 49 studies in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate the hazard ratio for PR status. Data from a New Zealand study of 11,365 patients with early invasive breast cancer were used for external validation. Model calibration and discrimination were used to test the model performance. RESULTS: Having a PR-positive tumour was associated with a 23% and 28% lower risk of dying from breast cancer for women with oestrogen receptor (ER)-negative and ER-positive breast cancer, respectively. The area under the ROC curve increased with the addition of PR status from 0.807 to 0.809 for patients with ER-negative tumours (p = 0.023) and from 0.898 to 0.902 for patients with ER-positive tumours (p = 2.3 × 10-6) in the New Zealand cohort. Model calibration was modest with 940 observed deaths compared to 1151 predicted. CONCLUSION: The inclusion of the prognostic effect of PR status to PREDICT Breast has led to an improvement of model performance and more accurate absolute treatment benefit predictions for individual patients. Further studies should determine whether the baseline hazard function requires recalibration.

Prediction of contralateral breast cancer: external validation of risk calculators in 20 international cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Three tools are currently available to predict the risk of contralateral breast cancer (CBC). We aimed to compare the performance of the Manchester formula, CBCrisk, and PredictCBC in patients with invasive breast cancer (BC). METHODS: We analyzed data of 132,756 patients (4682 CBC) from 20 international studies with a median follow-up of 8.8 years. Prediction performance included discrimination, quantified as a time-dependent Area-Under-the-Curve (AUC) at 5 and 10 years after diagnosis of primary BC, and calibration, quantified as the expected-observed (E/O) ratio at 5 and 10 years and the calibration slope. RESULTS: The AUC at 10 years was: 0.58 (95% confidence intervals [CI] 0.57-0.59) for CBCrisk; 0.60 (95% CI 0.59-0.61) for the Manchester formula; 0.63 (95% CI 0.59-0.66) and 0.59 (95% CI 0.56-0.62) for PredictCBC-1A (for settings where BRCA1/2 mutation status is available) and PredictCBC-1B (for the general population), respectively. The E/O at 10 years: 0.82 (95% CI 0.51-1.32) for CBCrisk; 1.53 (95% CI 0.63-3.73) for the Manchester formula; 1.28 (95% CI 0.63-2.58) for PredictCBC-1A and 1.35 (95% CI 0.65-2.77) for PredictCBC-1B. The calibration slope was 1.26 (95% CI 1.01-1.50) for CBCrisk; 0.90 (95% CI 0.79-1.02) for PredictCBC-1A; 0.81 (95% CI 0.63-0.99) for PredictCBC-1B, and 0.39 (95% CI 0.34-0.43) for the Manchester formula. CONCLUSIONS: Current CBC risk prediction tools provide only moderate discrimination and the Manchester formula was poorly calibrated. Better predictors and re-calibration are needed to improve CBC prediction and to identify low- and high-CBC risk patients for clinical decision-making.

Prediction and clinical utility of a contralateral breast cancer risk model.

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer survivors are at risk for contralateral breast cancer (CBC), with the consequent burden of further treatment and potentially less favorable prognosis. We aimed to develop and validate a CBC risk prediction model and evaluate its applicability for clinical decision-making. METHODS: We included data of 132,756 invasive non-metastatic breast cancer patients from 20 studies with 4682 CBC events and a median follow-up of 8.8 years. We developed a multivariable Fine and Gray prediction model (PredictCBC-1A) including patient, primary tumor, and treatment characteristics and BRCA1/2 germline mutation status, accounting for the competing risks of death and distant metastasis. We also developed a model without BRCA1/2 mutation status (PredictCBC-1B) since this information was available for only 6% of patients and is routinely unavailable in the general breast cancer population. Prediction performance was evaluated using calibration and discrimination, calculated by a time-dependent area under the curve (AUC) at 5 and 10 years after diagnosis of primary breast cancer, and an internal-external cross-validation procedure. Decision curve analysis was performed to evaluate the net benefit of the model to quantify clinical utility. RESULTS: In the multivariable model, BRCA1/2 germline mutation status, family history, and systemic adjuvant treatment showed the strongest associations with CBC risk. The AUC of PredictCBC-1A was 0.63 (95% prediction interval (PI) at 5 years, 0.52-0.74; at 10 years, 0.53-0.72). Calibration-in-the-large was -0.13 (95% PI: -1.62-1.37), and the calibration slope was 0.90 (95% PI: 0.73-1.08). The AUC of Predict-1B at 10 years was 0.59 (95% PI: 0.52-0.66); calibration was slightly lower. Decision curve analysis for preventive contralateral mastectomy showed potential clinical utility of PredictCBC-1A between thresholds of 4-10% 10-year CBC risk for BRCA1/2 mutation carriers and non-carriers. CONCLUSIONS: We developed a reasonably calibrated model to predict the risk of CBC in women of European-descent; however, prediction accuracy was moderate. Our model shows potential for improved risk counseling, but decision-making regarding contralateral preventive mastectomy, especially in the general breast cancer population where limited information of the mutation status in BRCA1/2 is available, remains challenging.

Joint association of mammographic density adjusted for age and body mass index and polygenic risk score with breast cancer risk.

BACKGROUND: Mammographic breast density, adjusted for age and body mass index, and a polygenic risk score (PRS), comprised of common genetic variation, are both strong risk factors for breast cancer and increase discrimination of risk models. Understanding their joint contribution will be important to more accurately predict risk. METHODS: Using 3628 breast cancer cases and 5126 controls of European ancestry from eight case-control studies, we evaluated joint associations of a 77-single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) PRS and quantitative mammographic density measures with breast cancer. Mammographic percent density and absolute dense area were evaluated using thresholding software and examined as residuals after adjusting for age, 1/BMI, and study. PRS and adjusted density phenotypes were modeled both continuously (per 1 standard deviation, SD) and categorically. We fit logistic regression models and tested the null hypothesis of multiplicative joint associations for PRS and adjusted density measures using likelihood ratio and global and tail-based goodness of fit tests within the subset of six cohort or population-based studies. RESULTS: Adjusted percent density (odds ratio (OR) = 1.45 per SD, 95% CI 1.38-1.52), adjusted absolute dense area (OR = 1.34 per SD, 95% CI 1.28-1.41), and the 77-SNP PRS (OR = 1.52 per SD, 95% CI 1.45-1.59) were associated with breast cancer risk. There was no evidence of interaction of the PRS with adjusted percent density or dense area on risk of breast cancer by either the likelihood ratio (P > 0.21) or goodness of fit tests (P > 0.09), whether assessed continuously or categorically. The joint association (OR) was 2.60 in the highest categories of adjusted PD and PRS and 0.34 in the lowest categories, relative to women in the second density quartile and middle PRS quintile. CONCLUSIONS: The combined associations of the 77-SNP PRS and adjusted density measures are generally well described by multiplicative models, and both risk factors provide independent information on breast cancer risk.

Presence of Circulating Tumor Cells in High-Risk Early Breast Cancer During Follow-Up and Prognosis.

BACKGROUND: The prognostic relevance of circulating tumor cells (CTCs) at the time of primary diagnosis has been well established. However, little information is available regarding their prognostic relevance to follow-up care. METHODS: The multicenter, open-label, phase III SUCCESS A trial compared two adjuvant chemotherapy regimens followed by 2 vs 5 years of zoledronate for early-stage, high-risk breast cancer patients. The presence of CTCs was assessed before and 2 years after chemotherapy using the FDA-approved CellSearch System. Overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) were analyzed using univariate log-rank tests and multivariable Cox regressions. OS and DFS were measured starting from an assessment of CTCs 2 years after the completion of chemotherapy. All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS: The sample included 1087 patients who participated in the translational research program of the SUCCESS A trial and for whom sufficient translational data were available regarding CTC status at baseline and at the 2-year follow-up visit. Two years after chemotherapy, 198 (18.2%) patients were CTC-positive. The median follow-up after this timepoint was 37 months. Cox regressions that included CTC status at baseline revealed that CTC status 2 years after chemotherapy had statistically significant and independent prognostic relevance for OS (hazard ratio [HR] = 3.91, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.04 to 7.52, P < .001) and DFS (HR = 2.31, 95% CI = 1.50 to 3.55, P < .001). CONCLUSION: The presence of CTCs 2 years after chemotherapy was associated with decreased OS and DFS. Based on these results, active individualized surveillance strategies for breast cancer survivors based on biomarkers should be reconsidered.

Association between mammographic density and pregnancies relative to age and BMI: a breast cancer case-only analysis.

PURPOSE: Percentage mammographic density (PMD) is a major risk factor for breast cancer (BC). It is strongly associated with body mass index (BMI) and age, which are themselves risk factors for breast cancer. This analysis investigated the association between the number of full-term pregnancies and PMD in different subgroups relative to age and BMI. METHODS: Patients were identified in the breast cancer database of the University Breast Center for Franconia. A total of 2410 patients were identified, for whom information on parity, age, and BMI, and a mammogram from the time of first diagnosis were available for assessing PMD. Linear regression analyses were conducted to investigate the influence on PMD of the number of full-term pregnancies (FTPs), age, BMI, and interaction terms between them. RESULTS: As in previous studies, age, number of FTPs, and BMI were found to be associated with PMD in the expected direction. However, including the respective interaction terms improved the prediction of PMD even further. Specifically, the association between PMD and the number of FTPs differed in young patients under the age of 45 (mean decrease of 0.37 PMD units per pregnancy) from the association in older age groups (mean decrease between 2.29 and 2.39 PMD units). BMI did not alter the association between PMD and the number of FTPs. CONCLUSIONS: The effect of pregnancies on mammographic density does not appear to become apparent before the age of menopause. The mechanism that drives the effect of pregnancies on mammographic density appears to be counter-regulated by other influences on mammographic density in younger patients.

Correlation of mammographic density and serum calcium levels in patients with primary breast cancer.

Percentage mammographic breast density (PMD) is one of the most important risk factors for breast cancer (BC). Calcium, vitamin D, bisphosphonates, and denosumab have been considered and partly confirmed as factors potentially influencing the risk of BC. This retrospective observational study investigated the association between serum calcium level and PMD. A total of 982 BC patients identified in the research database at the University Breast Center for Franconia with unilateral BC, calcium and albumin values, and mammogram at the time of first diagnosis were included. PMD was assessed, using a semiautomated method by two readers. Linear regression analyses were conducted to investigate the impact on PMD of the parameters of serum calcium level adjusted for albumin level, and well-known clinical predictors such as age, body mass index (BMI), menopausal status and confounder for serum calcium like season in which the BC was diagnosed. Increased calcium levels were associated with reduced PMD (P = 0.024). Furthermore, PMD was inversely associated with BMI (P < 0.001) and age (P < 0.001). There was also an association between PMD and menopausal status (P < 0.001). The goodness-of-fit of the regression model was moderate. This is the first study assessing the association between serum calcium level and PMD. An inverse association with adjusted serum calcium levels was observed. These findings add to previously published data relating to vitamin D, bisphosphonates, denosumab, and the RANK/RANKL signaling pathway in breast cancer risk and prevention.

Association of breast cancer risk with genetic variants showing differential allelic expression: Identification of a novel breast cancer susceptibility locus at 4q21.

There are significant inter-individual differences in the levels of gene expression. Through modulation of gene expression, cis-acting variants represent an important source of phenotypic variation. Consequently, cis-regulatory SNPs associated with differential allelic expression are functional candidates for further investigation as disease-causing variants. To investigate whether common variants associated with differential allelic expression were involved in breast cancer susceptibility, a list of genes was established on the basis of their involvement in cancer related pathways and/or mechanisms. Thereafter, using data from a genome-wide map of allelic expression associated SNPs, 313 genetic variants were selected and their association with breast cancer risk was then evaluated in 46,451 breast cancer cases and 42,599 controls of European ancestry ascertained from 41 studies participating in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. The associations were evaluated with overall breast cancer risk and with estrogen receptor negative and positive disease. One novel breast cancer susceptibility locus on 4q21 (rs11099601) was identified (OR = 1.05, P = 5.6x10-6). rs11099601 lies in a 135 kb linkage disequilibrium block containing several genes, including, HELQ, encoding the protein HEL308 a DNA dependant ATPase and DNA Helicase involved in DNA repair, MRPS18C encoding the Mitochondrial Ribosomal Protein S18C and FAM175A (ABRAXAS), encoding a BRCA1 BRCT domain-interacting protein involved in DNA damage response and double-strand break (DSB) repair. Expression QTL analysis in breast cancer tissue showed rs11099601 to be associated with HELQ (P = 8.28x10-14), MRPS18C (P = 1.94x10-27) and FAM175A (P = 3.83x10-3), explaining about 20%, 14% and 1%, respectively of the variance inexpression of these genes in breast carcinomas.

PALB2, CHEK2 and ATM rare variants and cancer risk: data from COGS.

BACKGROUND: The rarity of mutations in PALB2, CHEK2 and ATM make it difficult to estimate precisely associated cancer risks. Population-based family studies have provided evidence that at least some of these mutations are associated with breast cancer risk as high as those associated with rare BRCA2 mutations. We aimed to estimate the relative risks associated with specific rare variants in PALB2, CHEK2 and ATM via a multicentre case-control study. METHODS: We genotyped 10 rare mutations using the custom iCOGS array: PALB2 c.1592delT, c.2816T>G and c.3113G>A, CHEK2 c.349A>G, c.538C>T, c.715G>A, c.1036C>T, c.1312G>T, and c.1343T>G and ATM c.7271T>G. We assessed associations with breast cancer risk (42 671 cases and 42 164 controls), as well as prostate (22 301 cases and 22 320 controls) and ovarian (14 542 cases and 23 491 controls) cancer risk, for each variant. RESULTS: For European women, strong evidence of association with breast cancer risk was observed for PALB2 c.1592delT OR 3.44 (95% CI 1.39 to 8.52, p=7.1×10-5), PALB2 c.3113G>A OR 4.21 (95% CI 1.84 to 9.60, p=6.9×10-8) and ATM c.7271T>G OR 11.0 (95% CI 1.42 to 85.7, p=0.0012). We also found evidence of association with breast cancer risk for three variants in CHEK2, c.349A>G OR 2.26 (95% CI 1.29 to 3.95), c.1036C>T OR 5.06 (95% CI 1.09 to 23.5) and c.538C>T OR 1.33 (95% CI 1.05 to 1.67) (p≤0.017). Evidence for prostate cancer risk was observed for CHEK2 c.1343T>G OR 3.03 (95% CI 1.53 to 6.03, p=0.0006) for African men and CHEK2 c.1312G>T OR 2.21 (95% CI 1.06 to 4.63, p=0.030) for European men. No evidence of association with ovarian cancer was found for any of these variants. CONCLUSIONS: This report adds to accumulating evidence that at least some variants in these genes are associated with an increased risk of breast cancer that is clinically important.

Age- and Tumor Subtype-Specific Breast Cancer Risk Estimates for CHEK2*1100delC Carriers.

PURPOSE: CHEK2*1100delC is a well-established breast cancer risk variant that is most prevalent in European populations; however, there are limited data on risk of breast cancer by age and tumor subtype, which limits its usefulness in breast cancer risk prediction. We aimed to generate tumor subtype- and age-specific risk estimates by using data from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium, including 44,777 patients with breast cancer and 42,997 controls from 33 studies genotyped for CHEK2*1100delC. PATIENTS AND METHODS: CHEK2*1100delC genotyping was mostly done by a custom Taqman assay. Breast cancer odds ratios (ORs) for CHEK2*1100delC carriers versus noncarriers were estimated by using logistic regression and adjusted for study (categorical) and age. Main analyses included patients with invasive breast cancer from population- and hospital-based studies. RESULTS: Proportions of heterozygous CHEK2*1100delC carriers in controls, in patients with breast cancer from population- and hospital-based studies, and in patients with breast cancer from familial- and clinical genetics center-based studies were 0.5%, 1.3%, and 3.0%, respectively. The estimated OR for invasive breast cancer was 2.26 (95%CI, 1.90 to 2.69; P = 2.3 × 10(-20)). The OR was higher for estrogen receptor (ER)-positive disease (2.55 [95%CI, 2.10 to 3.10; P = 4.9 × 10(-21)]) than it was for ER-negative disease (1.32 [95%CI, 0.93 to 1.88; P = .12]; P interaction = 9.9 × 10(-4)). The OR significantly declined with attained age for breast cancer overall (P = .001) and for ER-positive tumors (P = .001). Estimated cumulative risks for development of ER-positive and ER-negative tumors by age 80 in CHEK2*1100delC carriers were 20% and 3%, respectively, compared with 9% and 2%, respectively, in the general population of the United Kingdom. CONCLUSION: These CHEK2*1100delC breast cancer risk estimates provide a basis for incorporating CHEK2*1100delC into breast cancer risk prediction models and into guidelines for intensified screening and follow-up.

Genetic variation in the immunosuppression pathway genes and breast cancer susceptibility: a pooled analysis of 42,510 cases and 40,577 controls from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium.

Immunosuppression plays a pivotal role in assisting tumors to evade immune destruction and promoting tumor development. We hypothesized that genetic variation in the immunosuppression pathway genes may be implicated in breast cancer tumorigenesis. We included 42,510 female breast cancer cases and 40,577 controls of European ancestry from 37 studies in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (2015) with available genotype data for 3595 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 133 candidate genes. Associations between genotyped SNPs and overall breast cancer risk, and secondarily according to estrogen receptor (ER) status, were assessed using multiple logistic regression models. Gene-level associations were assessed based on principal component analysis. Gene expression analyses were conducted using RNA sequencing level 3 data from The Cancer Genome Atlas for 989 breast tumor samples and 113 matched normal tissue samples. SNP rs1905339 (A>G) in the STAT3 region was associated with an increased breast cancer risk (per allele odds ratio 1.05, 95 % confidence interval 1.03-1.08; p value = 1.4 × 10(-6)). The association did not differ significantly by ER status. On the gene level, in addition to TGFBR2 and CCND1, IL5 and GM-CSF showed the strongest associations with overall breast cancer risk (p value = 1.0 × 10(-3) and 7.0 × 10(-3), respectively). Furthermore, STAT3 and IL5 but not GM-CSF were differentially expressed between breast tumor tissue and normal tissue (p value = 2.5 × 10(-3), 4.5 × 10(-4) and 0.63, respectively). Our data provide evidence that the immunosuppression pathway genes STAT3, IL5, and GM-CSF may be novel susceptibility loci for breast cancer in women of European ancestry.

A comprehensive evaluation of interaction between genetic variants and use of menopausal hormone therapy on mammographic density.

INTRODUCTION: Mammographic density is an established breast cancer risk factor with a strong genetic component and can be increased in women using menopausal hormone therapy (MHT). Here, we aimed to identify genetic variants that may modify the association between MHT use and mammographic density. METHODS: The study comprised 6,298 postmenopausal women from the Mayo Mammography Health Study and nine studies included in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. We selected for evaluation 1327 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) showing the lowest P-values for interaction (P int) in a meta-analysis of genome-wide gene-environment interaction studies with MHT use on risk of breast cancer, 2541 SNPs in candidate genes (AKR1C4, CYP1A1-CYP1A2, CYP1B1, ESR2, PPARG, PRL, SULT1A1-SULT1A2 and TNF) and ten SNPs (AREG-rs10034692, PRDM6-rs186749, ESR1-rs12665607, ZNF365-rs10995190, 8p11.23-rs7816345, LSP1-rs3817198, IGF1-rs703556, 12q24-rs1265507, TMEM184B-rs7289126, and SGSM3-rs17001868) associated with mammographic density in genome-wide studies. We used multiple linear regression models adjusted for potential confounders to evaluate interactions between SNPs and current use of MHT on mammographic density. RESULTS: No significant interactions were identified after adjustment for multiple testing. The strongest SNP-MHT interaction (unadjusted P int <0.0004) was observed with rs9358531 6.5kb 5' of PRL. Furthermore, three SNPs in PLCG2 that had previously been shown to modify the association of MHT use with breast cancer risk were found to modify also the association of MHT use with mammographic density (unadjusted P int <0.002), but solely among cases (unadjusted P int SNP×MHT×case-status <0.02). CONCLUSIONS: The study identified potential interactions on mammographic density between current use of MHT and SNPs near PRL and in PLCG2, which require confirmation. Given the moderate size of the interactions observed, larger studies are needed to identify genetic modifiers of the association of MHT use with mammographic density.

Assessment of variation in immunosuppressive pathway genes reveals TGFBR2 to be associated with prognosis of estrogen receptor-negative breast cancer after chemotherapy.

INTRODUCTION: Tumor lymphocyte infiltration is associated with clinical response to chemotherapy in estrogen receptor (ER) negative breast cancer. To identify variants in immunosuppressive pathway genes associated with prognosis after adjuvant chemotherapy for ER-negative patients, we studied stage I-III invasive breast cancer patients of European ancestry, including 9,334 ER-positive (3,151 treated with chemotherapy) and 2,334 ER-negative patients (1,499 treated with chemotherapy). METHODS: We pooled data from sixteen studies from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC), and employed two independent studies for replications. Overall 3,610 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 133 genes were genotyped as part of the Collaborative Oncological Gene-environment Study, in which phenotype and clinical data were collected and harmonized. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression was used to assess genetic associations with overall survival (OS) and breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS). Heterogeneity according to chemotherapy or ER status was evaluated with the log-likelihood ratio test. RESULTS: Three independent SNPs in TGFBR2 and IL12B were associated with OS (P <10⁻³) solely in ER-negative patients after chemotherapy (267 events). Poorer OS associated with TGFBR2 rs1367610 (G > C) (per allele hazard ratio (HR) 1.54 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.22 to 1.95), P = 3.08 × 10⁻4) was not found in ER-negative patients without chemotherapy or ER-positive patients with chemotherapy (P for interaction <10-3). Two SNPs in IL12B (r² = 0.20) showed different associations with ER-negative disease after chemotherapy: rs2546892 (G > A) with poorer OS (HR 1.50 (95% CI 1.21 to 1.86), P = 1.81 × 10⁻4), and rs2853694 (A > C) with improved OS (HR 0.73 (95% CI 0.61 to 0.87), P = 3.67 × 10⁻4). Similar associations were observed with BCSS. Association with TGFBR2 rs1367610 but not IL12B variants replicated using BCAC Asian samples and the independent Prospective Study of Outcomes in Sporadic versus Hereditary Breast Cancer Study and yielded a combined HR of 1.57 ((95% CI 1.28 to 1.94), P = 2.05 × 10⁻5) without study heterogeneity. CONCLUSIONS: TGFBR2 variants may have prognostic and predictive value in ER-negative breast cancer patients treated with adjuvant chemotherapy. Our findings provide further insights into the development of immunotherapeutic targets for ER-negative breast cancer.

The contributions of breast density and common genetic variation to breast cancer risk.

We evaluated whether a 76-locus polygenic risk score (PRS) and Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) breast density were independent risk factors within three studies (1643 case patients, 2397 control patients) using logistic regression models. We incorporated the PRS odds ratio (OR) into the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) risk-prediction model while accounting for its attributable risk and compared five-year absolute risk predictions between models using area under the curve (AUC) statistics. All statistical tests were two-sided. BI-RADS density and PRS were independent risk factors across all three studies (P interaction = .23). Relative to those with scattered fibroglandular densities and average PRS (2(nd) quartile), women with extreme density and highest quartile PRS had 2.7-fold (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.74 to 4.12) increased risk, while those with low density and PRS had reduced risk (OR = 0.30, 95% CI = 0.18 to 0.51). PRS added independent information (P < .001) to the BCSC model and improved discriminatory accuracy from AUC = 0.66 to AUC = 0.69. Although the BCSC-PRS model was well calibrated in case-control data, independent cohort data are needed to test calibration in the general population.

Fine-mapping identifies two additional breast cancer susceptibility loci at 9q31.2.

We recently identified a novel susceptibility variant, rs865686, for estrogen-receptor positive breast cancer at 9q31.2. Here, we report a fine-mapping analysis of the 9q31.2 susceptibility locus using 43 160 cases and 42 600 controls of European ancestry ascertained from 52 studies and a further 5795 cases and 6624 controls of Asian ancestry from nine studies. Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs676256 was most strongly associated with risk in Europeans (odds ratios [OR] = 0.90 [0.88-0.92]; P-value = 1.58 × 10(-25)). This SNP is one of a cluster of highly correlated variants, including rs865686, that spans ∼14.5 kb. We identified two additional independent association signals demarcated by SNPs rs10816625 (OR = 1.12 [1.08-1.17]; P-value = 7.89 × 10(-09)) and rs13294895 (OR = 1.09 [1.06-1.12]; P-value = 2.97 × 10(-11)). SNP rs10816625, but not rs13294895, was also associated with risk of breast cancer in Asian individuals (OR = 1.12 [1.06-1.18]; P-value = 2.77 × 10(-05)). Functional genomic annotation using data derived from breast cancer cell-line models indicates that these SNPs localise to putative enhancer elements that bind known drivers of hormone-dependent breast cancer, including ER-α, FOXA1 and GATA-3. In vitro analyses indicate that rs10816625 and rs13294895 have allele-specific effects on enhancer activity and suggest chromatin interactions with the KLF4 gene locus. These results demonstrate the power of dense genotyping in large studies to identify independent susceptibility variants. Analysis of associations using subjects with different ancestry, combined with bioinformatic and genomic characterisation, can provide strong evidence for the likely causative alleles and their functional basis.

Identification and characterization of novel associations in the CASP8/ALS2CR12 region on chromosome 2 with breast cancer risk.

Previous studies have suggested that polymorphisms in CASP8 on chromosome 2 are associated with breast cancer risk. To clarify the role of CASP8 in breast cancer susceptibility, we carried out dense genotyping of this region in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC). Single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) spanning a 1 Mb region around CASP8 were genotyped in 46 450 breast cancer cases and 42 600 controls of European origin from 41 studies participating in the BCAC as part of a custom genotyping array experiment (iCOGS). Missing genotypes and SNPs were imputed and, after quality exclusions, 501 typed and 1232 imputed SNPs were included in logistic regression models adjusting for study and ancestry principal components. The SNPs retained in the final model were investigated further in data from nine genome-wide association studies (GWAS) comprising in total 10 052 case and 12 575 control subjects. The most significant association signal observed in European subjects was for the imputed intronic SNP rs1830298 in ALS2CR12 (telomeric to CASP8), with per allele odds ratio and 95% confidence interval [OR (95% confidence interval, CI)] for the minor allele of 1.05 (1.03-1.07), P = 1 × 10(-5). Three additional independent signals from intronic SNPs were identified, in CASP8 (rs36043647), ALS2CR11 (rs59278883) and CFLAR (rs7558475). The association with rs1830298 was replicated in the imputed results from the combined GWAS (P = 3 × 10(-6)), yielding a combined OR (95% CI) of 1.06 (1.04-1.08), P = 1 × 10(-9). Analyses of gene expression associations in peripheral blood and normal breast tissue indicate that CASP8 might be the target gene, suggesting a mechanism involving apoptosis.

Association of molecular subtypes with breast cancer risk factors: a case-only analysis.

As breast cancer (BC) screening identifies many BCs with a good prognosis, which might be overdiagnosed and therefore overtreated, the identification of subgroups with a high risk for aggressive subtypes might be helpful. The aim of this case-case analysis was to investigate the association between epidemiological risk factors and molecular subtypes in a cohort of BC patients. Epidemiological risk factors for 2587 BC patients were obtained using a structured questionnaire and from the patients' charts. The histopathological information (estrogen and progesterone receptor, HER2 and Ki-67) used in the analysis was retrieved from the original pathology reports. Analyses using conditional inference regression trees were carried out on these data. The strongest influence factor on the distribution of the molecular subtypes was age at first diagnosis of BC. An influence of BMI was also identified in patients aged either more than 42 years or 49.6 years or less. Older patients aged more than 49.6 years and perimenopausal women with a BMI of 32.4 kg/m or less were most likely to develop luminal A-like BC. Young patients aged 42 years or less and perimenopausal patients with a BMI more than 32.4 kg/m more often developed triple-negative BC. The study confirmed that age at diagnosis is an important factor influencing the distribution of molecular subtypes. In the perimenopausal group, it may be postulated that BMI plays a critical role in the pathogenesis of BC, defining a subgroup that is more likely to develop triple-negative BC or luminal B-like disease and another group in which there is a more postmenopausal distribution pattern.