Estimated number of lives directly saved by COVID-19 vaccination programmes in the WHO European Region from December, 2020, to March, 2023: a retrospective surveillance study.

BACKGROUND: By March, 2023, 54 countries, areas, and territories (hereafter CAT) in the WHO European Region had reported more than 2·2 million COVID-19-related deaths to the WHO Regional Office for Europe. Here, we estimated how many lives were directly saved by vaccinating adults in the WHO European Region from December, 2020, to March, 2023. METHODS: In this retrospective surveillance study, we estimated the number of lives directly saved by age group, vaccine dose, and circulating variant-of-concern (VOC) period, regionally and nationally, using weekly data on COVID-19 mortality and infection, COVID-19 vaccination uptake, and SARS-CoV-2 virus characterisations by lineage downloaded from The European Surveillance System on June 11, 2023, as well as vaccine effectiveness data from the literature. We included data for six age groups (25-49 years, 50-59 years, ≥60 years, 60-69 years, 70-79 years, and ≥80 years). To be included in the analysis, CAT needed to have reported both COVID-19 vaccination and mortality data for at least one of the four older age groups. Only CAT that reported weekly data for both COVID-19 vaccination and mortality by age group for 90% of study weeks or more in the full study period were included. We calculated the percentage reduction in the number of expected and reported deaths. FINDINGS: Between December, 2020, and March, 2023, in 34 of 54 CAT included in the analysis, COVID-19 vaccines reduced deaths by 59% overall (CAT range 17-82%), representing approximately 1·6 million lives saved (range 1·5-1·7 million) in those aged 25 years or older: 96% of lives saved were aged 60 years or older and 52% were aged 80 years or older; first boosters saved 51% of lives, and 60% were saved during the Omicron period. INTERPRETATION: Over nearly 2·5 years, most lives saved by COVID-19 vaccination were in older adults by first booster dose and during the Omicron period, reinforcing the importance of up-to-date vaccination among the most at-risk individuals. Further modelling work should evaluate indirect effects of vaccination and public health and social measures. FUNDING: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Global Status Report for the Verification of Measles and Rubella Elimination, 2022.

Since the World Health Assembly (WHA) in 2012 endorsed the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP), which included regional measles and rubella elimination goals by 2020, global progress towards verification of measles and rubella elimination has been incremental. Even though the 2020 elimination goals were not achieved, commitment towards achieving measles and rubella elimination has been firmly established in the Immunization Agenda 2030 (IA2030) and the Measles and Rubella Strategic Framework (MRSF) 2021-2030. In 2023, the six Regional Verification Commissions for measles and rubella elimination (RVCs) reviewed data as of 31 December 2022 and confirmed that 82 (42%) Member States have been verified for measles elimination, and 98 (51%) Member States have been verified for rubella elimination. The six RVCs are composed of independent public health and immunization experts who are well-placed to support accelerating measles and rubella elimination. RVCs should be leveraged not only to review elimination documents but also to advocate for and champion public health programming that supports measles and rubella activities. The verification of elimination process is one of many tools that should be deployed to reinforce and accelerate efforts towards achieving a world free of measles and rubella.

Effectiveness of historical smallpox vaccination against mpox clade II in men in Denmark, France, the Netherlands and Spain, 2022.

BackgroundIn 2022, a global monkeypox virus (MPXV) clade II epidemic occurred mainly among men who have sex with men. Until early 1980s, European smallpox vaccination programmes were part of worldwide smallpox eradication efforts. Having received smallpox vaccine > 20 years ago may provide some cross-protection against MPXV.AimTo assess the effectiveness of historical smallpox vaccination against laboratory-confirmed mpox in 2022 in Europe.MethodsEuropean countries with sufficient data on case vaccination status and historical smallpox vaccination coverage were included. We selected mpox cases born in these countries during the height of the national smallpox vaccination campaigns (latest 1971), male, with date of onset before 1 August 2022. We estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) and corresponding 95% CI for each country using logistic regression as per the Farrington screening method. We calculated a pooled estimate using a random effects model.ResultsIn Denmark, France, the Netherlands and Spain, historical smallpox vaccination coverage was high (80-90%) until the end of the 1960s. VE estimates varied widely (40-80%, I2 = 82%), possibly reflecting different booster strategies. The pooled VE estimate was 70% (95% CI: 23-89%).ConclusionOur findings suggest residual cross-protection by historical smallpox vaccination against mpox caused by MPXV clade II in men with high uncertainty and heterogeneity. Individuals at high-risk of exposure should be offered mpox vaccination, following national recommendations, regardless of prior smallpox vaccine history, until further evidence becomes available. There is an urgent need to conduct similar studies in sub-Saharan countries currently affected by the MPXV clade I outbreak.

Challenges for Sustaining Measles Elimination: Post-Verification Large-Scale Import-Related Measles Outbreaks in Mongolia and Cambodia, Resulting in the Loss of Measles Elimination Status.

The Western Pacific Region's pursuit of measles elimination has seen significant progress and setbacks. Mongolia and Cambodia were the first two middle-income countries in the Western Pacific to be verified as having eliminated measles by the Western Pacific Regional Verification Commission for Measles and Rubella Elimination, in March 2014 and 2015, respectively. However, both countries experienced large-scale or prolonged importation-related measles outbreaks shortly afterwards, leading to the re-establishment of endemic transmission. We describe the path to initial elimination in both countries and explore these outbreaks' characteristics, factors contributing to the loss of elimination status, and implications for broader elimination efforts. Data sources include case-based epidemiological and laboratory surveillance reports, historical immunization coverage, genotype data, and published reports of in-depth outbreak investigations. In Mongolia, a single prolonged and large-scale outbreak revealed a hidden immunity gap among young adults and was driven in part by nosocomial transmission, leading to significant morbidity and mortality and loss of elimination status. Cambodia suffered multiple importations from neighboring endemic countries during the global measles resurgence in 2018-2019, complicated by cross-border mobility and significant nosocomial amplification, and the country was ultimately unable to sufficiently distinguish independent chains of transmission, leading to loss of elimination status. Our findings highlight the importance of broadening population immunity assessments beyond children to include adults and specific high-risk groups. Robust routine immunization programs, supplemented by tailored SIAs, are crucial for preventing and managing outbreaks. Additionally, strong outbreak preparedness plans, rapid response strategies, and cross-border collaboration and the global effort to prevent multiple resurgences and large-scale importation-induced outbreaks are vital for maintaining elimination status. The experiences of Mongolia and Cambodia underscore the challenges of sustaining measles elimination in the face of importation risks, shared borders with endemic countries, healthcare system gaps, and population movements. Strengthening the global coordination and synchronization of measles elimination activities is imperative to protect the gains achieved and prevent future setbacks.

Progress and Challenges in Measles and Rubella Elimination in the WHO European Region.

The elimination of both measles and rubella remains a priority for all 53 Member States of the World Health Organization (WHO) European Region. To provide an update on the epidemiological status of measles and rubella in the Region, we reviewed surveillance data on both diseases for 2023 submitted monthly by national surveillance institutions. We analyzed the cases of measles and rubella for 2023 by age group, case classification, vaccination, hospitalization, and importation status and report on measles-related deaths. In 2023, 60,860 measles cases, including 13 fatal cases, were reported in 41 countries. Most cases (95%; n = 57,584) were reported by six countries: Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Romania, the Russian Federation, and Türkiye. Of the 60,848 cases with data on age, 19,137 (31%) were 1-4 years old and 12,838 (21%) were 5-9 years old. A total of 10,412 (17%) were 20 years and older. The genotypes identified in the Region were largely dominated by D8 variants (n = 1357) and the remainder were B3 variants (n = 221). In 2023, 345 rubella cases were reported by 17 countries, mostly from Poland, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Türkiye, and Ukraine. A total of 262 cases (76%) were classified as clinically compatible and 79 (23%) were laboratory-confirmed. To achieve the elimination of measles and rubella in the Region, political commitment needs to be revived to enable urgent efforts to increase vaccination coverage, improve surveillance and outbreak preparedness, and respond immediately to outbreaks.

Breakthrough Measles among Vaccinated Adults Born during the Post-Soviet Transition Period in Mongolia.

Mongolia experienced a nationwide measles outbreak during 1 March 2015-31 December 2016, with 49,077 cases reported to the WHO; many were among vaccinated young adults, suggesting a possible role of vaccine failure. Advanced laboratory methods, coupled with detailed epidemiological investigations, can help classify cases as vaccine failure, failure to vaccinate, or both. In this report, we conducted a study of cases to identify risk factors for breakthrough infection for a subset of laboratory-confirmed measles cases. Of the 193 cases analyzed, only 19 (9.8%) reported measles vaccination history, and 170 (88%) were uncertain. Measles-specific IgG avidity testing classified 120 (62%) cases as low IgG avidity, indicating no prior exposure to measles. Ten of these cases with low IgG avidity had a history of measles vaccination, indicating primary vaccine failure. Overall, sixty cases (31%) had high IgG avidity, indicating breakthrough infection after prior exposure to measles antigen through vaccination or natural infection, but the IgG avidity results were highly age-dependent. This study found that among young children aged 9 months-5 years, breakthrough infection was rare (4/82, 5%); however, among young adults aged 15-25 years, breakthrough infection due to secondary vaccine failure (SVF) occurred on a large scale during this outbreak, accounting for the majority of cases (42/69 cases, 61%). The study found that large-scale secondary vaccine failure occurred in Mongolia, which highlights the potential for sustained outbreaks in post-elimination settings due to "hidden" cohorts of young adults who may have experienced waning immunity. This phenomenon may have implications for the sustainability of measles elimination in countries that remain vulnerable to the importation of the virus from areas where it is still endemic. Until global measles elimination is achieved, enhanced surveillance and preparedness for future outbreaks in post- or peri-elimination countries may be required.

Sustained detection of type 2 poliovirus in London sewage between February and July, 2022, by enhanced environmental surveillance.

BACKGROUND: The international spread of poliovirus exposes all countries to the risk of outbreaks and is designated a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by WHO. This risk can be exacerbated in countries using inactivated polio vaccine, which offers excellent protection against paralysis but is less effective than oral vaccine against poliovirus shedding, potentially allowing circulation without detection of paralytic cases for long periods of time. Our study investigated the molecular properties of type 2 poliovirus isolates found in sewage with an aim to detect virus transmission in the community. METHODS: We performed environmental surveillance in London, UK, testing sewage samples using WHO recommended methods that include concentration, virus isolation in cell culture, and molecular characterisation. We additionally implemented direct molecular detection and determined whole-genome sequences of every isolate using novel nanopore protocols. FINDINGS: 118 genetically linked poliovirus isolates related to the serotype 2 Sabin vaccine strain were detected in 21 of 52 sequential sewage samples collected in London between Feb 8 and July 4, 2022. Expansion of environmental surveillance sites in London helped localise transmission to several boroughs in north and east London. All isolates have lost two key attenuating mutations, are recombinants with a species C enterovirus, and an increasing proportion (20 of 118) meet the criterion for a vaccine-derived poliovirus, having six to ten nucleotide changes in the gene coding for VP1 capsid protein. INTERPRETATION: Environmental surveillance allowed early detection of poliovirus importation and circulation in London, permitting a rapid public health response, including enhanced surveillance and an inactivated polio vaccine campaign among children aged 1-9 years. Whole-genome sequences generated through nanopore sequencing established linkage of isolates and confirmed transmission of a unique recombinant poliovirus lineage that has now been detected in Israel and the USA. FUNDING: Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency, UK Health Security Agency, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and National Institute for Health Research Medical Research Council.

Linking rattiness, geography and environmental degradation to spillover Leptospira infections in marginalised urban settings: An eco-epidemiological community-based cohort study in Brazil.

Background: Zoonotic spillover from animal reservoirs is responsible for a significant global public health burden, but the processes that promote spillover events are poorly understood in complex urban settings. Endemic transmission of Leptospira, the agent of leptospirosis, in marginalised urban communities occurs through human exposure to an environment contaminated by bacteria shed in the urine of the rat reservoir. However, it is unclear to what extent transmission is driven by variation in the distribution of rats or by the dispersal of bacteria in rainwater runoff and overflow from open sewer systems. Methods: We conducted an eco-epidemiological study in a high-risk community in Salvador, Brazil, by prospectively following a cohort of 1401 residents to ascertain serological evidence for leptospiral infections. A concurrent rat ecology study was used to collect information on the fine-scale spatial distribution of 'rattiness', our proxy for rat abundance and exposure of interest. We developed and applied a novel geostatistical framework for joint spatial modelling of multiple indices of disease reservoir abundance and human infection risk. Results: The estimated infection rate was 51.4 (95%CI 40.4, 64.2) infections per 1000 follow-up events. Infection risk increased with age until 30 years of age and was associated with male gender. Rattiness was positively associated with infection risk for residents across the entire study area, but this effect was stronger in higher elevation areas (OR 3.27 95% CI 1.68, 19.07) than in lower elevation areas (OR 1.14 95% CI 1.05, 1.53). Conclusions: These findings suggest that, while frequent flooding events may disperse bacteria in regions of low elevation, environmental risk in higher elevation areas is more localised and directly driven by the distribution of local rat populations. The modelling framework developed may have broad applications in delineating complex animal-environment-human interactions during zoonotic spillover and identifying opportunities for public health intervention. Funding: This work was supported by the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation and Secretariat of Health Surveillance, Brazilian Ministry of Health, the National Institutes of Health of the United States (grant numbers F31 AI114245, R01 AI052473, U01 AI088752, R01 TW009504 and R25 TW009338); the Wellcome Trust (102330/Z/13/Z), and by the Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado da Bahia (FAPESB/JCB0020/2016). MTE was supported by a Medical Research UK doctorate studentship. FBS participated in this study under a FAPESB doctorate scholarship.

Estimated number of deaths directly averted in people 60 years and older as a result of COVID-19 vaccination in the WHO European Region, December 2020 to November 2021.

Since December 2019, over 1.5 million SARS-CoV-2-related fatalities have been recorded in the World Health Organization European Region - 90.2% in people ≥ 60 years. We calculated lives saved in this age group by COVID-19 vaccination in 33 countries from December 2020 to November 2021, using weekly reported deaths and vaccination coverage. We estimated that vaccination averted 469,186 deaths (51% of 911,302 expected deaths; sensitivity range: 129,851-733,744; 23-62%). Impact by country ranged 6-93%, largest when implementation was early.

Assessing the burden of congenital rubella syndrome in China and evaluating mitigation strategies: a metapopulation modelling study.

BACKGROUND: A rubella vaccine was licensed in China in 1993 and added to the Expanded Programme on Immunization in 2008, but a national cross-sectional serological survey during 2014 indicates that many adolescents remain susceptible. Maternal infections during the first trimester often cause miscarriages, stillbirths, and, among livebirths, congenital rubella syndrome. We aimed to evaluate possible supplemental immunisation activities (SIAs) to accelerate elimination of rubella and congenital rubella syndrome. METHODS: We analysed residual samples from the national serological survey done in 2014, data from monthly rubella surveillance reports from 2005 and 2016, and additional publications through a systematic review. Using an age-structured population model with provincial strata, we calculated the reproduction numbers and evaluated the gradient of the metapopulation effective reproduction number with respect to potential supplemental immunisation rates. We corroborated these analytical results and estimated times-to-elimination by simulating SIAs among adolescents (ages 10-19 years) and young adults (ages 20-29 years) using a model with regional strata. We estimated the incidence of rubella and burden of congenital rubella syndrome by simulating transmission in a relatively small population lacking only spatial structure. FINDINGS: By 2014, childhood immunisation had reduced rubella's reproduction number from 7·6 to 1·2 and SIAs among adolescents were the optimal elimination strategy. We found that less than 10% of rubella infections were reported; that although some women with symptomatic first-trimester infections might have elected to terminate their pregnancies, 700 children could have been born with congenital rubella syndrome during 2014; and that timely SIAs would avert outbreaks that, as susceptible adolescents reached reproductive age, could greatly increase the burden of this syndrome. INTERPRETATION: Our findings suggest that SIAs among adolescents would most effectively reduce congenital rubella syndrome as well as eliminate rubella, owing both to fewer infections in the immunised population and absence of infections that those immunised would otherwise have caused. Metapopulation models with realistic mixing are uniquely capable of assessing such indirect effects. FUNDING: WHO and National Science Foundation.

Anicteric Leptospirosis-Associated Meningitis in a Tropical Urban Environment, Brazil.

While studying aseptic meningitis in Salvador, Brazil, we diagnosed anicteric leptospirosis in 1.7% (5/295) of patients hospitalized for aseptic meningitis. Leptospirosis-associated meningitis patients had lower mean cerebrospinal fluid cell counts and protein than other-cause aseptic meningitis (p<0.05). Clinicians must consider leptospirosis-associated meningitis in appropriate clinical-epidemiologic contexts.

Progress Toward Rubella Elimination - Western Pacific Region, 2000-2019.

Rubella is the leading vaccine-preventable cause of birth defects. Rubella typically manifests as a mild febrile rash illness; however, infection during pregnancy, particularly during the first trimester, can result in miscarriage, fetal death, or a constellation of malformations known as congenital rubella syndrome (CRS), commonly including one or more visual, auditory, or cardiac defects (1). In 2012, the Regional Committee of the World Health Organization (WHO) Western Pacific Region (WPR)* committed to accelerate rubella control, and in 2017, resolved that all countries or areas (countries) in WPR should aim for rubella elimination† as soon as possible (2,3). WPR countries are capitalizing on measles elimination activities, using a combined measles and rubella vaccine, case-based surveillance for febrile rash illness, and integrated diagnostic testing for measles and rubella. This report summarizes progress toward rubella elimination and CRS prevention in WPR during 2000-2019. Coverage with a first dose of rubella-containing vaccine (RCV1) increased from 11% in 2000 to 96% in 2019. During 1970-2019, approximately 84 million persons were vaccinated through 62 supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) conducted in 27 countries. Reported rubella incidence increased from 35.5 to 71.3 cases per million population among reporting countries during 2000-2008, decreased to 2.1 in 2017, and then increased to 18.4 in 2019 as a result of outbreaks in China and Japan. Strong sustainable immunization programs, closing of existing immunity gaps, and maintenance of high-quality surveillance to respond rapidly to and contain outbreaks are needed in every WPR country to achieve rubella elimination in the region.

Measles and rubella IgG seroprevalence in persons 6 month-35 years of age, Mongolia, 2016.

BACKGROUND: In 2015-2016, Mongolia experienced an unexpected large measles outbreak affecting mostly young children and adults. After two nationwide vaccination campaigns, measles transmission declined. To determine if there were any remaining immunity gaps to measles or rubella in the population, a nationally representative serosurvey for measles and rubella antibodies was conducted after the outbreak was over. METHODS: A nationwide, cross-sectional, stratified, three-stage cluster serosurvey was conducted in November-December 2016. A priori, four regional strata (Ulaanbaatar, Western, Central, and Gobi-Eastern) and five age strata (6 months-23 months, 2-7 years, 8-17 years, 18-30 years, and 31-35 years) were created. Households were visited, members interviewed, and blood specimens were collected from age-appropriate members. Blood specimens were tested for measles immunoglobulin G (IgG) and rubella IgG (Enzygnost® Anti-measles Virus/IgG and Anti-rubella Virus/IgG, Siemens, Healthcare Diagnostics Products, GmbH Marburg, Germany). Factors associated with seropositivity were evaluated. RESULTS: Among 4598 persons aged 6 months to 35 years participating in the serosurvey, 94% were measles IgG positive and 95% were rubella IgG positive. Measles IgG seropositivity was associated with increasing age and higher education. Rubella IgG seropositivity was associated with increasing age, higher education, smaller household size, receipt of MMR in routine immunization, residence outside the Western Region, non-Muslim religious affiliation, and non-Kazakh ethnicity. Muslim Kazakhs living in Western Region had the lowest rubella seroprevalence of all survey participants. CONCLUSIONS: Nationally, high immunity to both measles and rubella has been achieved among persons 1-35 years of age, which should be sufficient to eliminate both measles and rubella if future birth cohorts have ≥ 95% two dose vaccination coverage. Catch-up vaccination is needed to close immunity gaps found among some subpopulations, particularly Muslim Kazakhs living in Western Region.

Influence of Rainfall on Leptospira Infection and Disease in a Tropical Urban Setting, Brazil.

The incidence of hospitalized leptospirosis patients was positively associated with increased precipitation in Salvador, Brazil. However, Leptospira infection risk among a cohort of city residents was inversely associated with rainfall. These findings indicate that, although heavy rainfall may increase severe illness, Leptospira exposures can occur year-round.

Selective Hepatitis B Birth-Dose Vaccination in São Tomé and Príncipe: A Program Assessment and Cost-Effectiveness Study.

São Tomé and Príncipe (STP) uses a selective hepatitis B birth-dose vaccination (HepB-BD) strategy targeting infants born to mothers who test positive for hepatitis B virus (HBV) surface antigen. We conducted a field assessment and economic analysis of the HepB-BD strategy to provide evidence to guide development of cost-effective policies to prevent perinatal HBV transmission in STP. We interviewed national stakeholders and key informants to understand policies, knowledge, and practices related to HepB-BD, vaccine management, and data recording/reporting. Cost-effectiveness of the existing strategy was compared with an alternate approach of universal HepB-BD to all newborns using a decision analytic model. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated in 2015 USD per HBV-associated death and per chronic HBV case prevented, from the STP health-care system perspective. We found that STP lacked national or facility-specific written policies and procedures related to HepB-BD. Timely HepB-BD to eligible newborns was considered a high priority, although timeliness of HepB-BD was not monitored. Compared with the existing selective vaccination strategy, universal HepB-BD would result in a 19% decrease in chronic HBV infections per year at overall cost savings of approximately 44% (savings of USD 5,441 each year). We estimate an ICER of USD 5,012 saved per HBV-associated death averted. The existing selective HepB-BD strategy in STP could be improved through documentation of policies, procedures, and timeliness of HepB-BD. Expansion to universal newborn HepB-BD without maternal screening is feasible and could result in cost savings if actual implementation costs and effectiveness fall within the ranges modeled.

Increase in Infant Measles Deaths During a Nationwide Measles Outbreak-Mongolia, 2015-2016.

BACKGROUND: Surveillance data from a large measles outbreak in Mongolia suggested increased case fatality ratio (CFR) in the second of 2 waves. To confirm the increase in CFR and identify risk factors for measles death, we enhanced mortality ascertainment and conducted a case-control study among infants hospitalized for measles. METHODS: We linked national vital records with surveillance data of clinically or laboratory-confirmed infant (aged <12 months) measles cases with rash onset during March-September 2015 (wave 1) and October 2015-June 2016 (wave 2). We abstracted medical charts of 95 fatal cases and 273 nonfatal cases hospitalized for measles, matched by age and sex. We calculated adjusted matched odds ratios (amORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for risk factors. RESULTS: Infant measles deaths increased from 3 among 2224 cases (CFR: 0.13%) in wave 1 to 113 among 4884 cases (CFR: 2.31%) in wave 2 (P < .001). Inpatient admission, 7-21 days before measles rash onset, for pneumonia or influenza (amOR: 4.5; CI, 2.6-8.0), but not other diagnoses, was significantly associated with death. DISCUSSION: Measles infection among children hospitalized with respiratory infections likely increased deaths due to measles during wave 2. Preventing measles virus nosocomial transmission likely decreases measles mortality.

Impact of preexisting dengue immunity on Zika virus emergence in a dengue endemic region.

The clinical outcomes associated with Zika virus (ZIKV) in the Americas have been well documented, but other aspects of the pandemic, such as attack rates and risk factors, are poorly understood. We prospectively followed a cohort of 1453 urban residents in Salvador, Brazil, and, using an assay that measured immunoglobulin G3 (IgG3) responses against ZIKV NS1 antigen, we estimated that 73% of individuals were infected during the 2015 outbreak. Attack rates were spatially heterogeneous, varying by a factor of 3 within a community spanning 0.17 square kilometers. Preexisting high antibody titers to dengue virus were associated with reduced risk of ZIKV infection and symptoms. The landscape of ZIKV immunity that now exists may affect the risk for future transmission.

Fine-scale GPS tracking to quantify human movement patterns and exposure to leptospires in the urban slum environment.

BACKGROUND: Human movement is likely an important risk factor for environmentally-transmitted pathogens. While epidemiologic studies have traditionally focused on household risk factors, individual movement data could provide critical additional information about risk of exposure to such pathogens. We conducted global positioning system (GPS) tracking of urban slum residents to quantify their fine-scale movement patterns and evaluate their exposures to environmental sources of leptospirosis transmission. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We recruited participants from an ongoing cohort study in an urban slum in Brazil and tracked them for 24 hours at 30-second intervals. Among 172 subjects asked to participate in this cross-sectional study, 130 agreed to participate and 109 had good quality data and were included in analyses. The majority of recorded locations were near participant residences (87.7% within 50 meters of the house), regardless of age or gender. Similarly, exposure to environmental sources of leptospirosis transmission did not vary by age or gender. However, males, who have higher infection rates, visited a significantly larger area during the 24-hour period than did females (34,549m2 versus 22,733m2, p = 0.005). Four male participants had serologic evidence of Leptospira infection during the study period. These individuals had significantly larger activity spaces than uninfected males (61,310m2 vs 31,575m2, p = 0.006) and elevated exposure to rodent activity (p = 0.046) and trash deposits (p = 0.031). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: GPS tracking was an effective tool for quantifying individual mobility in the complex urban slum environment and identifying risk exposures associated with that movement. This study suggests that in addition to source reduction, barrier interventions that reduce contact with transmission sources as slum residents move within their communities may be a useful prevention strategy for leptospirosis.

Progress Toward Measles Elimination - Western Pacific Region, 2013-2017.

In 2005, the Regional Committee for the World Health Organization (WHO) Western Pacific Region (WPR)* established a goal for measles elimination† by 2012 (1). To achieve this goal, the 37 WPR countries and areas implemented the recommended strategies in the WPR Plan of Action for Measles Elimination (2) and the Field Guidelines for Measles Elimination (3). The strategies include 1) achieving and maintaining ≥95% coverage with 2 doses of measles-containing vaccine (MCV) through routine immunization services and supplementary immunization activities (SIAs), when required; 2) conducting high-quality case-based measles surveillance, including timely and accurate testing of specimens to confirm or discard suspected cases and detect measles virus for genotyping and molecular analysis; and 3) establishing and maintaining measles outbreak preparedness to ensure rapid response and appropriate case management. This report updates the previous report (4) and describes progress toward measles elimination in WPR during 2013-2017. During 2013-2016, estimated regional coverage with the first MCV dose (MCV1) decreased from 97% to 96%, and coverage with the routine second MCV dose (MCV2) increased from 91% to 93%. Eighteen (50%) countries achieved ≥95% MCV1 coverage in 2016. Seven (39%) of 18 nationwide SIAs during 2013-2017 reported achieving ≥95% administrative coverage. After a record low of 5.9 cases per million population in 2012, measles incidence increased during 2013-2016 to a high of 68.9 in 2014, because of outbreaks in the Philippines and Vietnam, as well as increased incidence in China, and then declined to 5.2 in 2017. To achieve measles elimination in WPR, additional measures are needed to strengthen immunization programs to achieve high population immunity, maintain high-quality surveillance for rapid case detection and confirmation, and ensure outbreak preparedness and prompt response to contain outbreaks.

Prospective evaluation of accuracy and clinical utility of the Dual Path Platform (DPP) assay for the point-of-care diagnosis of leptospirosis in hospitalized patients.

Early detection of leptospirosis with field-ready diagnostics may improve clinical management and mitigate outbreaks. We previously validated the point-of-care Dual Path Platform (DPP) for leptospirosis with sera in the laboratory. This prospective study compares the diagnostic accuracy and clinical utility of the DPP using finger stick blood (FSB) against the serum DPP, venous whole blood (VWB) DPP, IgM-ELISA, and clinical impression. We sequentially enrolled 98 patients hospitalized for acute febrile illnesses, of which we confirmed 32 by leptospirosis reference tests. Among syndromes consistent with classic leptospirosis, the FSB DPP showed similar sensitivity and specificity (Se 93% and Sp 80%), and positive and negative predictive values (PPV 74% and NPV 95%), to VWB DPP (Se 96%, Sp 75%, PPV 68%, and NPV 97%), serum DPP (Se 85%, Sp 87%, PPV 79%, and NPV 91%) and IgM-ELISA (Se 81%, Sp 100%, PPV 100%, and NPV 90%). The FSB DPP provided a favorable likelihood ratio profile (positive LR 4.73, negative LR 0.09) in comparison to other assays and clinical impression alone. Additionally, we identified four of five leptospirosis-associated meningitis patients by whole blood DPP, none of which clinicians suspected. This demonstrates potential for the DPP in routine detection of this less common syndrome. The FSB DPP demonstrated similar discrimination for severe human leptospirosis compared with serum assays, and it is a simpler option for diagnosing leptospirosis. Its performance in other epidemiological settings and geographic regions, and for detecting atypical presentations, demands further evaluation.