ABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION: Because of the unclear prognostic effects of ablation of atrial fibrillation (AF), oral anticoagulation (OAC) is often continued after ablation even in asymptomatic patients. We sought to determine the frequency of stroke and AF recurrence in patients on and off therapeutic OAC 1 year after a successful AF ablation. METHODS AND RESULTS: Patients that underwent AF ablation and were free of AF 12 months after ablation were selected from our AF database. During follow-up (FU), patients were screened for recurrence of AF, changes in OAC or antiarrhythmic medication, and the occurrence of stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA). A total of 398 patients (median age 60.7 years [50.8, 66.8], 25% female) were investigated. The median duration of FU was 529 (373, 111,3.5) days. OAC was discontinued in 276 patients (69.3%). During FU, 4 patients (1%) suffered from stroke and 55 patients (13.8%) experienced a recurrence of AF. Persistent AF was significantly associated with a greater chance of AF recurrence (49.1% vs. 26.8%; P = 0.001). Neither CHADS2 nor CHA2DS2-VASc-Score nor recurrence of AF were significantly different in patients with or without stroke. There was a trend toward a higher percentage of coronary artery disease among patients that experienced stroke (50% vs. 10%; P = 0.057). CONCLUSION: The overall risk of stroke and AF recurrence is low in patients with a recurrence free interval of at least 12 months after AF ablation. Of note, recurrence of AF was not associated with a higher risk of stroke in our study population.
Subject(s)
Atrial Fibrillation/surgery , Catheter Ablation/adverse effects , Ischemic Attack, Transient/epidemiology , Stroke/epidemiology , Administration, Oral , Aged , Anticoagulants/administration & dosage , Atrial Fibrillation/diagnosis , Atrial Fibrillation/epidemiology , Atrial Fibrillation/physiopathology , Coronary Artery Disease/complications , Databases, Factual , Disease-Free Survival , Drug Administration Schedule , Female , Humans , Incidence , Ischemic Attack, Transient/diagnosis , Ischemic Attack, Transient/prevention & control , Male , Middle Aged , Ontario/epidemiology , Recurrence , Retrospective Studies , Risk Factors , Stroke/diagnosis , Stroke/prevention & control , Time Factors , Treatment OutcomeABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Success rates of atrial fibrillation (AF) ablation have been shown to be significantly lower for patients with persistent AF. However, little is known about the risk factors predicting progression to persistent AF in patients awaiting AF ablation. METHODS: We performed a retrospective, single-centre investigation of patients with paroxysmal AF at the time of placement on the ablation waiting list. Patients were defined as having progressed if they had developed self-reported or electrocardiogram-recorded AF durations more than 7 days while awaiting ablation. After ablation, clinical visits at 3, 6, 9, 12, and 18 months were performed with a minimum of a 48-hour-Holter and electrocardiogram. Baseline characteristics including left atrial diameter (LA) and the HATCH score were analyzed by univariable and multivariable analysis for predicting progression to persistent AF. RESULTS: During a median waiting time of 9.7 (6.1, 14.2) months, 60 of 564 patients (11%) progressed to persistent AF. In patients who progressed, ablation took longer (180 [150, 249] minutes vs 157 [125, 210] minutes; P = 0.009) and was associated with a higher rate of recurrence after a median of 12 months (53.3% vs 39.1%; P < 0.001). The HATCH score was a poor predictor of AF progression (area under the curve 0.54), whereas an LA diameter of more than 45 mm (odds ratio 3.46, P < 0.001) and heart failure (odds ratio 3.11, P = 0.036) were strong and independent predictors of AF progression in multivariable analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with an increased LA diameter or heart failure have a significantly increased risk of progression to persistent AF. These characteristics may define patients who should undergo earlier catheter ablation to optimize outcome.