If Residential Segregation Persists, What Explains Widespread Increases in Residential Diversity?

Recent studies have identified increasing residential diversity as a near-universal trend across the United States. At the same time, a wide range of scholarship notes the persistence of White flight and other mechanisms that reproduce residential segregation. In this article, we attempt to reconcile these findings by arguing that current trends toward increased residential diversity may sometimes mask population changes that are more consistent with racial turnover and eventual resegregation. Specifically, we show that increases in diversity occur nearly identically across neighborhoods where White populations remain stable or decline in the face of non-White population growth. Our findings demonstrate that, particularly in its early stages, racial turnover decouples diversity and integration, leading to increases in diversity without corresponding increases in residential integration. These results suggest that in many neighborhoods, diversity increases may be transitory phenomena driven primarily by a neighborhood's location in the racial turnover process. In the future, stalled or decreasing levels of diversity may become more common in these areas as segregation persists and the process of racial turnover continues.

Does participating in a long-term cohort study impact research subjects' longevity? Experimental evidence from the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study.

There is considerable evidence that the act of participating in a survey can alter participants' attitudes, behaviors, and other outcomes in meaningful ways. Considering findings that this form of panel conditioning also impacts health behaviors and outcomes, we investigated the effect of participating in an intensive half-century-long cohort study on participants' longevity. To do so, we used data from a 1957 survey of more than 33,000 Wisconsin high school seniors linked to mortality records. One third of those people were selected at random to participate in the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study (WLS); the other two thirds were never again contacted. Our survival models show no evidence of panel conditioning effects on longevity: People selected at random to participate in the WLS had the same mortality outcomes as their peers who were not selected. This finding holds for the full sample, for women, for men, for population subgroups defined by family socioeconomic origins and educational experiences, and for treatment compliers.

COVID-19 and changes in college student educational expectations and health by disability status.

This study examines the implications of the coronavirus pandemic for college students' health and education, with special attention to variation by disability status. Disaster research supports the hypothesis that students with disabilities will experience higher-than-usual levels of pandemic-related stress, which could lead to re-evaluations of their educational expectations and declines in health. We evaluate this hypothesis by modeling changes in students' (1) mental and physical health and (2) educational expectations during the first year (spring of 2020 to spring of 2021) of the pandemic, using survey data collected from a population-based sample of college students in the state of Indiana. Although we observe across-the-board declines in both domains, students with disabilities were especially vulnerable. Mediation analyses suggest that differential exposure to financial and illness-related stressors is partially to blame, explaining a significant portion of the group differences between students with and without disabilities. We interpret these results as evidence of the unique vulnerabilities associated with disability status and its wide-ranging importance as a dimension of social stratification.

Crossover Effects of Education on Health within Married Couples.

Although empirical work has shown that personal and spousal education are both related to health, the nature of these associations has been harder to establish. People select into marriages on the basis of observed and hard-to-observe characteristics, complicating the job of the researcher who wishes to make causal inferences. In this article, we implement a within-sibling-pair design that exploits variation within pairs in spousal education to generate estimates of spousal crossover effects. Results-based on a long-term study of siblings and their spouses-suggest that spousal education is positively related to health, but to a greater degree for women than men. Sensitivity analyses show that these patterns are unlikely to derive from measured differences between individuals or unmeasured characteristics that sort them into unions. These results are consistent with network-based theories of social capital, which view education as a resource that can be mobilized by network ties to enhance health.

Trends in Public Stigma of Mental Illness in the US, 1996-2018.

Importance: Stigma, the prejudice and discrimination attached to mental illness, has been persistent, interfering with help-seeking, recovery, treatment resources, workforce development, and societal productivity in individuals with mental illness. However, studies assessing changes in public perceptions of mental illness have been limited. Objective: To evaluate the nature, direction, and magnitude of population-based changes in US mental illness stigma over 22 years. Design, Setting, and Participants: This survey study used data collected from the US National Stigma Studies, face-to-face interviews conducted as 1996, 2006, and 2018 General Social Survey modules of community-dwelling adults, based on nationally representative, multistage sampling techniques. Individuals aged 18 years or older, including Spanish-speaking respondents, living in noninstitutionalized settings were interviewed in 1996 (n = 1438), 2006 (n = 1520), and 2018 (n = 1171). The present study was conducted from July 2019 to January 2021. Main Outcomes and Measures: Respondents reacted to 1 of 3 vignettes (schizophrenia, depression, alcohol dependence) meeting Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition, criteria or a control case (daily troubles). Measures included beliefs about underlying causes (attributions), perceptions of likely violence (danger to others), and rejection (desire for social distance). Results: Of the 4129 individuals interviewed in the surveys, 2255 were women (54.6%); mean (SD) age was 44.6 (16.9) years. In the earlier period (1996-2006), respondents endorsing scientific attributions (eg, genetics) for schizophrenia (11.8%), depression (13.0%), and alcohol dependence (10.9%) increased. In the later period (2006-2018), the desire for social distance decreased for depression in work (18.1%), socializing (16.7%), friendship (9.7%), family marriage (14.3%), and group home (10.4%). Inconsistent, sometimes regressive change was observed, particularly regarding dangerousness for schizophrenia (1996-2018: 15.7% increase, P = .001) and bad character for alcohol dependence (1996-2018: 18.2% increase, P = .001). Subgroup differences, defined by race and ethnicity, sex, and educational level, were few and inconsistent. Change appeared to be consistent with age and generational shifts among 2 birth cohorts (1937-1946 and 1987-2000). Conclusions and Relevance: To date, this survey study found the first evidence of significant decreases in public stigma toward depression. The findings of this study suggest that individuals' age was a conservatizing factor whereas being in the pre-World War II or millennial birth cohorts was a progressive factor. However, stagnant stigma levels for other disorders and increasing public perceptions of likely violence among persons with schizophrenia call for rethinking stigma and retooling reduction strategies to increase service use, improve treatment resources, and advance population health.

The Effects of Education on Mortality: Evidence From Linked U.S. Census and Administrative Mortality Data.

Does education change people's lives in a way that delays mortality? Or is education primarily a proxy for unobserved endowments that promote longevity? Most scholars conclude that the former is true, but recent evidence based on Danish twin data calls this conclusion into question. Unfortunately, these potentially field-changing findings-that obtaining additional schooling has no independent effect on survival net of other hard-to-observe characteristics-have not yet been subject to replication outside Scandinavia. In this article, we produce the first U.S.-based estimates of the effects of education on mortality using a representative panel of male twin pairs drawn from linked complete-count census and death records. For comparison purposes, and to shed additional light on the roles that neighborhood, family, and genetic factors play in confounding associations between education and mortality, we also produce parallel estimates of the education-mortality relationship using data on (1) unrelated males who lived in different neighborhoods during childhood, (2) unrelated males who shared the same neighborhood growing up, and (3) non-twin siblings who shared the same family environment but whose genetic endowments vary to a greater degree. We find robust associations between education and mortality across all four samples, although estimates are modestly attenuated among twins and non-twin siblings. These findings-coupled with several robustness checks and sensitivity analyses-support a causal interpretation of the association between education and mortality for cohorts of boys born in the United States in the first part of the twentieth century.

The Intergenerational Transmission of Early Educational Advantages: New Results Based on an Adoption Design.

Sociological research has traditionally emphasized the importance of post-birth factors (i.e., social, economic, and cultural capital) in the intergenerational transmission of educational advantages, to the neglect of potentially consequential pre-birth endowments (e.g., heritable traits) that are passed from parent to child. In this study, we leverage an experiment of nurture-children who were adopted at birth into nonrelative families-in an effort to simultaneously model the effects associated with both pathways. To do so, we fit a series of simple linear regression models that relate the academic achievement of adopted children to the educational attainments of their adoptive and biological parents, using U.S. data from a recent nationwide sample of birth and adoptive families (the Early Growth and Development Study). Because our dataset includes both "genetic" and "environmental" relatives, but not "genetic-and-environmental" relatives, the separate contributions of each pathway can be identified, as well as possible interactions between the two. Our results show that children's early achievements are influenced not only by the attainments of their adoptive parents, but also the attainments of their birth parents-suggesting the presence of environmental and genetically mediated effects. Supplementary analyses provide little evidence of effect moderation, using both distal and proximate measures of the childhood environment to model gene-by-environment interactions. These findings are robust to a variety of parameterizations, withstand a series of auxiliary checks, and remain intact even after controlling for intrauterine exposures and other measurable variables that could compromise our design. The implications of our results for theory and research in the stratification literature, and for those interested in educational mobility, are discussed.

Measuring the predictability of life outcomes with a scientific mass collaboration.

How predictable are life trajectories? We investigated this question with a scientific mass collaboration using the common task method; 160 teams built predictive models for six life outcomes using data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, a high-quality birth cohort study. Despite using a rich dataset and applying machine-learning methods optimized for prediction, the best predictions were not very accurate and were only slightly better than those from a simple benchmark model. Within each outcome, prediction error was strongly associated with the family being predicted and weakly associated with the technique used to generate the prediction. Overall, these results suggest practical limits to the predictability of life outcomes in some settings and illustrate the value of mass collaborations in the social sciences.

School performance and mortality: The mediating role of educational attainment and work and family trajectories across the life course.

Evidence of a strong negative correlation between adolescent academic performance and mortality points to the importance of not only cognitive, but also non-cognitive, skills in predicting survival. We integrated two bodies of research to evaluate expectations regarding the role of educational attainment and trajectories of employment and marriage experience in mediating relationships between high school class rank and longevity. In particular, we used data from the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study (n = 9,232) to fit parametric mortality models from age 55 to age 77. Multiple mediator models allowed for quantification of the degree to which the association between high school class rank and mortality is mediated by life trajectories and educational attainment. Our results show that high school class rank is a statistically significant and substantively meaningful predictor of survival beyond age 55 and that this relationship is partially, but not fully, mediated by trajectories of employment and marriage experience across the life course. Higher educational attainment also mediates a substantial part of the relationship, but to varying degrees for men and women.

Panel Conditioning in the General Social Survey.

Does participation in one wave of a survey have an effect on respondents' answers to questions in subsequent waves? In this article, we investigate the presence and magnitude of "panel conditioning" effects in one of the most frequently used data sets in the social sciences: the General Social Survey (GSS). Using longitudinal records from the 2006, 2008, and 2010 surveys, we find evidence that at least some GSS items suffer from this form of bias. To rule out the possibility of contamination due to selective attrition and/or unobserved heterogeneity, we strategically exploit a series of between-person comparisons across time-in-survey groups. This methodology, which can be implemented whenever researchers have access to at least three waves of rotating panel data, is described in some detail so as to facilitate future applications in data sets with similar design elements.

Measuring students' school context exposures: A trajectory-based approach.

Studies of school effects on children's outcomes usually use single time-point measures. I argue that this approach fails to account for (1) age-based variation in children's sensitivity to their surroundings; (2) differential effects stemming from differences in the length of young people's exposures; and (3) moves between contexts and endogenous changes over time within them. To evaluate the merits of this argument, I specify and test a longitudinal model of school effects on children's academic performance. Drawing on recent advances in finite mixture modeling, I identify a series of distinct school context trajectories that extend across a substantial portion of respondents' elementary and secondary school years. I find that these trajectories vary significantly with respect to shape, with some students experiencing significant changes in their environments over time. I then show that students' trajectories of exposure are related to their 8th grade achievement, even after controlling for point-in-time measures of school context.

Do Different Methods for Modeling Age-Graded Trajectories Yield Consistent and Valid Results?

Data on age-sequenced trajectories of individuals' attributes are used for a growing number of research purposes. However, there is no consensus about which method to use to identify the number of discrete trajectories in a population or to assign individuals to a specific trajectory group. We modeled real and simulated trajectory data using "naïve" methods, optimal matching, grade of membership models, and three types of finite mixture models. We found that these methods produced inferences about the number of trajectories that frequently differ (1) from one another and (2) from the truth as represented by simulation parameters. We also found that they differed in the assignment of individuals to trajectory groups. In light of these findings, we argue that researchers should interpret results based on these methods cautiously, neither reifying point estimates about the number of trajectories nor treating individuals' trajectory group assignments as certain.

The Impact of Work and Family Life Histories on Economic Well-Being at Older Ages.

Motivated by theoretical and empirical research in life course sociology, we examine relationships between trajectories of work and family roles across the life course and four measures of economic well-being in later adulthood. Using data from the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study (WLS), and multiple trajectory-generating methods, we first identify latent trajectories of work and family roles between late adolescence and age 65. We then model economic well-being (at age 65) as a function of these trajectories and contemporaneously measured indicators of older adults' work, family, and health statuses. Our central finding is that trajectories of work and family experiences across the life course have direct effects on later-life economic well-being, as well as indirect effects that operate through more proximate measures of work, family, and other characteristics. We argue that these findings have important implications for how social scientists conceptualize and model the relationship between later-life economic outcomes and people's work and family experiences across the life course.

Panel conditioning in longitudinal studies: evidence from labor force items in the Current Population Survey.

Does participating in a longitudinal survey affect respondents' answers to subsequent questions about their labor force characteristics? In this article, we investigate the magnitude of panel conditioning or time-in-survey biases for key labor force questions in the monthly Current Population Survey (CPS). Using linked CPS records for household heads first interviewed between January 2007 and June 2010, our analyses are based on strategic within-person comparisons across survey months and between-person comparisons across CPS rotation groups. We find considerable evidence for panel conditioning effects in the CPS. Panel conditioning downwardly biases the CPS-based unemployment rate, mainly by leading people to remove themselves from its denominator. Across surveys, CPS respondents (claim to) leave the labor force in greater numbers than otherwise equivalent respondents who are participating in the CPS for the first time. The results cannot be attributed to panel attrition or mode effects. We discuss implications for CPS-based research and policy as well as for survey methodology more broadly.

The effect of family member migration on education and work among nonmigrant youth in Mexico.

While academic and policy circles have given much attention to the assimilatory experiences of Mexican immigrants in the United States, less is known about those who stay behind-an especially unfortunate oversight given the increasing number of Mexican youth with migrant family members. Of the studies on this topic, most have sought to identify the effect that migration has on youths' migratory and educational aspirations, often using qualitative methods in individual sending communities. The present article supplements this research in two ways: (1) in addition to assessing educational outcomes, the scope of the analysis is expanded to include nonmigrant' interaction with another homeland institution of upward mobility: the labor market; and (2) using a large demographic data set, statistical techniques are employed to adjust for unobserved selectivity into the migrant family-member population, thus accounting for a potentially serious source of bias. The results suggest that youth in migrant-sending families are less likely to complete the educational transitions leading up to postsecondary school and have a lower probability of participating in the local economy. The results also indicate that unobserved factors play a "nonignorable" role in sorting youth into migrant and nonmigrant families.

A practical approach to using multiple-race response data: a bridging method for public-use microdata.

Revised federal policies require that multiple-race responses be allowed in all federal data collection efforts, but many researchers find the multitude of race categories and variables very difficult to use. Important comparability issues also interfere with using multiple-race data in analyses of multiple data sets and/or several points in time. These difficulties have, in effect, discouraged the use of the new data on race. We present a practical method for incorporating multiple-race respondents into analyses that use public-use microdata. Our method is a modification of the regression method developed by the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), which uses multiple-race respondents' specific combination of races, as well as other individual-level and contextual characteristics, to predict the respondents 'preferred single race. In this paper we (1) apply the NCHS-generated regression coefficients to public-use microdata with limited geographic information; and (2) provide a downloadable computer program with which researchers can apply this practical and preferable method for including multiple-race respondents in a wide variety of analyses.