Factors Associated with Unfavourable Treatment Outcomes in Patients with Tuberculosis: A 16-Year Cohort Study (2005-2020), Republic of Karakalpakstan, Uzbekistan.

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a public health burden in the Republic of Karakalpakstan, Uzbekistan. This region-wide retrospective cohort study reports the treatment outcomes of patients registered in the TB electronic register and treated with first-line drugs in the TB Programme of the Republic of Karakalpakstan from 2005-2020 and factors associated with unfavourable outcomes. Among 35,122 registered patients, 24,394 (69%) patients were adults, 2339 (7%) were children, 18,032 (51%) were male and 19,774 (68%) lived in rural areas. Of these patients, 29,130 (83%) had pulmonary TB and 7497 (>22%) had been previously treated. There were 7440 (21%) patients who had unfavourable treatment outcomes. Factors associated with unfavourable treatment outcomes included: increasing age, living in certain parts of the republic, disability, pensioner status, unemployment, being HIV-positive, having pulmonary TB, and receiving category II treatment. Factors associated with death included: being adult and elderly, living in certain parts of the republic, having a disability, pensioner status, being HIV-positive, and receiving category II treatment. Factors associated with failure included: being adolescent, female, having pulmonary TB. Factors associated with loss to follow-up included: being male, disability, pensioner status, unemployment, receiving category II treatment. In summary, there are sub-groups of patients who need special attention in order to decrease unfavourable treatment outcomes.

Factors Associated with Unfavorable Treatment Outcomes in New and Previously Treated TB Patients in Uzbekistan: A Five Year Countrywide Study.

BACKGROUND: TB is one of the main health priorities in Uzbekistan and relatively high rates of unfavorable treatment outcomes have recently been reported. This requires closer analysis to explain the reasons and recommend interventions to improve the situation. Thus, by using countrywide data this study sought to determine trends in unfavorable outcomes (lost-to-follow-ups, deaths and treatment failures) and describe their associations with socio-demographic and clinical factors. METHOD: A countrywide retrospective cohort study of all new and previously treated TB patients registered in the National Tuberculosis programme between January 2006 and December 2010. RESULTS: Among 107,380 registered patients, 67% were adults, with smaller proportions of children (10%), adolescents (4%) and elderly patients (19%). Sixty per cent were male, 66% lived in rural areas, 1% were HIV-infected and 1% had a history of imprisonment. Pulmonary TB (PTB) was present in 77%, of which 43% were smear-positive and 53% were smear-negative. Overall, 83% of patients were successfully treated, 6% died, 6% were lost-to-follow-up, 3% failed treatment and 2% transferred out. Factors associated with death included being above 55 years of age, HIV-positive, sputum smear positive, previously treated, jobless and living in certain provinces. Factors associated with lost-to-follow-up were being male, previously treated, jobless, living in an urban area, and living in certain provinces. Having smear-positive PTB, being an adolescent, being urban population, being HIV-negative, previously treated, jobless and residing in particular provinces were associated with treatment failure. CONCLUSION: Overall, 83% treatment success rate was achieved. However, our study findings highlight the need to improve TB services for certain vulnerable groups and in specific areas of the country. They also emphasize the need to develop unified monitoring and evaluation tools for drug-susceptible and drug-resistant TB, and call for better TB surveillance and coordination between provinces and neighbouring countries.