Environmental suitability for Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus and the spatial distribution of major arboviral infections in Mexico.

BACKGROUND: This paper discusses a comparative geographic distribution of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes in Mexico, using environmental suitability modeling and reported cases of arboviral infections. METHODS: Using presence-only records, we modeled mosquito niches to show how much they influenced the distribution of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus based on mosquito records collected at the municipality level. Mosquito surveillance data were used to create models regarding the predicted suitability of Ae. albopictus and Ae. aegypti mosquitos in Mexico. RESULTS: Ae. albopictus had relatively a better predictive performance (area under the curve, AUC = 0.87) to selected bioclimatic variables compared to Ae. aegypti (AUC = 0.81). Ae. aegypti were more suitable for areas with minimum temperature of coldest month (Bio6, permutation importance 28.7%) -6 °C to 21.5 °C, cumulative winter growing degree days (GDD) between 40 and 500, and precipitation of wettest month (Bio13) >8.4 mm. Minimum temperature range of the coldest month (Bio6) was -6.6 °C to 20.5 °C, and average precipitation of the wettest month (Bio13) 8.9 mm ~ 600 mm were more suitable for the existence of Ae. albopictus. However, arboviral infections maps prepared from the 2012-2016 surveillance data showed cases were reported far beyond predicted municipalities. CONCLUSIONS: This study identified the urgent necessity to start surveillance in 925 additional municipalities that reported arbovirus infections but did not report Aedes mosquito.