Predicting 5-Year Clinical Outcomes After Transcatheter or Surgical Aortic Valve Replacement (a Risk Score from the SURTAVI Trial).

Risk prediction scores for long-term outcomes after transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) or surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) are lacking. This study aimed to develop preprocedural risk scores for 5-year clinical outcomes after TAVI or SAVR. This analysis included 1,660 patients at an intermediate surgical risk with severe aortic stenosis randomly assigned to TAVI (n = 864) or SAVR (n = 796) from the SURTAVI (Surgical Replacement and Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation) trial. The primary end point was a composite of all-cause mortality or disabling stroke at 5 years. The secondary end point was a composite of cardiovascular mortality or hospitalizations for valve disease or worsening heart failure at 5 years. Preprocedural multivariable predictors of clinical outcomes were used to calculate a simple risk score for both procedures. At 5 years, the primary end point occurred in 31.3% of the patients with TAVI and 30.8% of the patients with SAVR. Preprocedural predictors differed between TAVI and SAVR. Baseline anticoagulant use was a common predictor for events in both procedures, whereas male sex and a left ventricular ejection fraction <60% were significant predictors for events in patients with TAVI and SAVR, respectively. A total of 4 simple scoring systems were created based on these multivariable predictors. The C-statistics of all models were modest but performed better than the contemporary risk scores. In conclusion, preprocedural predictors of events differ between TAVI and SAVR, necessitating separate risk models. Despite the modest predictive value of the SURTAVI risk scores, they appeared superior to other contemporary scores. Further research is needed to strengthen and validate our risk scores, possibly by including biomarker and echocardiographic parameters.

Structural Valve Deterioration After Self-Expanding Transcatheter or Surgical Aortic Valve Implantation in Patients at Intermediate or High Risk.

Importance: The frequency and clinical importance of structural valve deterioration (SVD) in patients undergoing self-expanding transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) or surgery is poorly understood. Objective: To evaluate the 5-year incidence, clinical outcomes, and predictors of hemodynamic SVD in patients undergoing self-expanding TAVI or surgery. Design, Setting, and Participants: This post hoc analysis pooled data from the CoreValve US High Risk Pivotal (n = 615) and SURTAVI (n = 1484) randomized clinical trials (RCTs); it was supplemented by the CoreValve Extreme Risk Pivotal trial (n = 485) and CoreValve Continued Access Study (n = 2178). Patients with severe aortic valve stenosis deemed to be at intermediate or increased risk of 30-day surgical mortality were included. Data were collected from December 2010 to June 2016, and data were analyzed from December 2021 to October 2022. Interventions: Patients were randomized to self-expanding TAVI or surgery in the RCTs or underwent self-expanding TAVI for clinical indications in the nonrandomized studies. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary end point was the incidence of SVD through 5 years (from the RCTs). Factors associated with SVD and its association with clinical outcomes were evaluated for the pooled RCT and non-RCT population. SVD was defined as (1) an increase in mean gradient of 10 mm Hg or greater from discharge or at 30 days to last echocardiography with a final mean gradient of 20 mm Hg or greater or (2) new-onset moderate or severe intraprosthetic aortic regurgitation or an increase of 1 grade or more. Results: Of 4762 included patients, 2605 (54.7%) were male, and the mean (SD) age was 82.1 (7.4) years. A total of 2099 RCT patients, including 1128 who received TAVI and 971 who received surgery, and 2663 non-RCT patients who received TAVI were included. The cumulative incidence of SVD treating death as a competing risk was lower in patients undergoing TAVI than surgery (TAVI, 2.20%; surgery, 4.38%; hazard ratio [HR], 0.46; 95% CI, 0.27-0.78; P = .004). This lower risk was most pronounced in patients with smaller annuli (23 mm diameter or smaller; TAVI, 1.32%; surgery, 5.84%; HR, 0.21; 95% CI, 0.06-0.73; P = .02). SVD was associated with increased 5-year all-cause mortality (HR, 2.03; 95% CI, 1.46-2.82; P < .001), cardiovascular mortality (HR, 1.86; 95% CI, 1.20-2.90; P = .006), and valve disease or worsening heart failure hospitalizations (HR, 2.17; 95% CI, 1.23-3.84; P = .008). Predictors of SVD were developed from multivariate analysis. Conclusions and Relevance: This study found a lower rate of SVD in patients undergoing self-expanding TAVI vs surgery at 5 years. Doppler echocardiography was a valuable tool to detect SVD, which was associated with worse clinical outcomes. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifiers: NCT01240902, NCT01586910, and NCT01531374.

Long-term safety of drug-coated devices for peripheral revascularisation.

BACKGROUND: Meta-analyses of randomised trials of paclitaxel-coated peripheral devices found an association with worse long-term survival. AIMS: We aimed to assess long-term mortality in patients treated with drug-coated versus non-drug-coated devices who are insured by Medicare Advantage (MA), an alternative to traditional Medicare that represents >30% of the Medicare eligible population. We analysed data from an MA administrative claims data source that includes both inpatient and outpatient femoropopliteal artery revascularisation procedures. METHODS: Patients treated with or without drug-coated devices for femoropopliteal artery revascularisation from 4/2015-12/2017 were studied using Optum's De-identified Clinformatics Datamart Database. Mortality was assessed up to December 2019 using Kaplan-Meier cumulative mortality curves and Cox proportional hazard models. Inverse probability of treatment weighting was used to adjust for differences between groups. RESULTS: Of 16,796 patients revascularised, 4,427 (26.4%) were treated with drug-coated devices: 3,600 (81.3%) balloons and 827 (18.7%) stents. The median follow-up was 2.66 years (IQR 2.02-3.52). Treatment with drug-coated devices was associated with similar long-term mortality to non-drug-coated devices (adjusted HR 1.03, 95% CI: 0.96-1.10; p=0.39). Results were comparable for patients treated with balloons alone (adjusted HR 1.00, 95% CI: 0.92-1.08; p=0.96) or stents (adjusted HR 1.02, 95% CI: 0.88-1.18; p=0.78). These findings did not differ based on treatment setting, disease severity, age, sex or comorbidity burden (interaction p>0.05 for all). CONCLUSIONS: In this large cohort, there was no evidence of increased long-term mortality following treatment with drug-coated devices.

Estimation of low quantity genes: a hierarchical model for analyzing censored quantitative real-time PCR data.

Analysis of gene quantities measured by quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) can be complicated by observations that are below the limit of quantification (LOQ) of the assay. A hierarchical model estimated using MCMC methods was developed to analyze qPCR data of genes with observations that fall below the LOQ (censored observations). Simulated datasets with moderate to very high levels of censoring were used to assess the performance of the model; model results were compared to approaches that replace censored observations with a value on the log scale approximating zero or with values ranging from one to the LOQ of ten gene copies. The model was also compared to a Tobit regression model. Finally, all approaches for handling censored observations were evaluated with DNA extracted from samples that were spiked with known quantities of the antibiotic resistance gene tetL. For the simulated datasets, the model outperformed substitution of all values from 1-10 under all censoring scenarios in terms of bias, mean square error, and coverage of 95% confidence intervals for regression parameters. The model performed as well or better than substitution of a value approximating zero under two censoring scenarios (approximately 57% and 79% censored values). The model also performed as well or better than Tobit regression in two of three censoring scenarios (approximately 79% and 93% censored values). Under the levels of censoring present in the three scenarios of this study, substitution of any values greater than 0 produced the least accurate results. When applied to data produced from spiked samples, the model produced the lowest mean square error of the three approaches. This model provides a good alternative for analyzing large amounts of left-censored qPCR data when the goal is estimation of population parameters. The flexibility of this approach can accommodate complex study designs such as longitudinal studies.

Association tests for a censored quantitative trait and candidate genes in structured populations with multilevel genetic relatedness.

Several statistical methods for detecting associations between quantitative traits and candidate genes in structured populations have been developed for fully observed phenotypes. However, many experiments are concerned with failure-time phenotypes, which are usually subject to censoring. In this article, we propose statistical methods for detecting associations between a censored quantitative trait and candidate genes in structured populations with complex multiple levels of genetic relatedness among sampled individuals. The proposed methods correct for continuous population stratification using both population structure variables as covariates and the frailty terms attributable to kinship. The relationship between the time-at-onset data and genotypic scores at a candidate marker is modeled via a parametric Weibull frailty accelerated failure time (AFT) model as well as a semiparametric frailty AFT model, where the baseline survival function is flexibly modeled as a mixture of Polya trees centered around a family of Weibull distributions. For both parametric and semiparametric models, the frailties are modeled via an intrinsic Gaussian conditional autoregressive prior distribution with the kinship matrix being the adjacency matrix connecting subjects. Simulation studies and applications to the Arabidopsis thaliana line flowering time data sets demonstrated the advantage of the new proposals over existing approaches.

Field estimation of the flock-level diagnostic specificity of an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for Avian metapneumovirus antibodies in turkeys.

Routine serologic testing for Avian metapneumovirus (AMPV) infection of turkey flocks at slaughter is currently being used to monitor changes in the occurrence of AMPV infection in endemic areas and can also be used to detect the emergence of infection in currently unaffected areas. Because of the costs associated with false-positive results, particularly in areas that are free of AMPV infection, there is a need to obtain improved estimates of flock-level specificity (SP). The objective of this study was to estimate flock-level SP of a program to monitor AMPV infection in turkey flocks at processing using a standard enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). A study was carried out in which 37 AMPV-free flocks from 7 Midwest operations were followed serologically. Six percent, 3%, and 0.2% of total samples tested AMPV positive at 8 weeks, 12 weeks, and at processing, respectively. Overall, flock-level SP increased as the cutoff increased and as age increased. Flock-level SP at processing was 97%, if a cutoff of 1 was used (the flock was classified as positive if at least 1 sample tested positive), and 100%, if any other cutoff was used. Administration of antibiotics (P = 0.02) and vaccination for Bordetella avium (P = 0.08) were positively associated with the probability of (false) positive test results. These findings suggest possible cross-reactions with other infections and highlight the need to consider variable diagnostic performance depending on farm conditions.

Detection of neuronal loss using T(1rho) MRI assessment of (1)H(2)O spin dynamics in the aphakia mouse.

The loss of dopaminergic (DA) neurons in the substantia nigra pars compacta (SNc) is well characterized in Parkinson's disease (PD). Recent developments in magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) techniques have provided the opportunity to evaluate for changes in cellular density. Longitudinal relaxation measurements in the rotating frame (T(1rho)) provide a unique magnetic resonance imaging contrast in vivo. Due to the specificity of T(1rho) to water-protein interactions, the T(1rho) MRI method has strong potential to be used as a non-invasive method for quantification of neuronal density in the brain. Recently introduced adiabatic T(1rho) magnetic resonance imaging mapping methods provide a tool to assess molecular motional regimes with high sensitivity due to utilization of an effective magnetic field sweep during adiabatic pulses. In this work, to investigate the sensitivity of T(1rho) to alterations in neuronal density, adiabatic T(1rho) MRI measurements were employed in vivo on Pitx3-homeobox gene-deficient aphakia mice in which the deficit of DA neurons in the SNc is well established. The theoretical analysis of T(1rho) maps in the different areas of the brain of aphakia mouse suggested variation of the (1)H(2)O rotational correlation times, tau(c). This suggests tau(c) to be a sensitive indicator for neuronal loss during neurological disorders. The results manifest significant dependencies of the T(1rho) relaxations on the cell densities in the SNc, suggesting T(1rho) MRI method as a candidate for detection of neuronal loss in neurological disorders.

Using the Bivariate Dale Model to jointly estimate predictors of frequency and quantity of alcohol use.

OBJECTIVE: This study demonstrates the usefulness of the Bivariate Dale Model (BDM) as a method for estimating the relationship between risk factors and the quantity and frequency of alcohol use, as well as the degree of association between these highly correlated drinking measures. METHOD: The BDM is used to evaluate childhood sexual abuse, along with age and gender, as risk factors for the quantity and frequency of beer consumption in a sample of driving-while-intoxicated (DWI) offenders (N = 1,964; 1,612 men). The BDM allows one to estimate the relative odds of drinking up to each level of ordinal-scaled quantity and frequency of alcohol use, as well as model the degree of association between quantity and frequency of alcohol consumption as a function of covariates. RESULTS: Individuals who experienced childhood sexual abuse have increased risks of higher quantity and frequency of beer consumption. History of childhood sexual abuse has a greater effect on women, causing them to drink higher quantities of beer per drinking occasion. CONCLUSIONS: The BDM is a useful method for evaluating predictors of the quantity-frequency of alcohol consumption. SAS macrocode for fitting the BDM model is provided.