Predicting the epidemic curve of the coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) disease (COVID-19) using artificial intelligence: An application on the first and second waves.

OBJECTIVES: The COVID-19 pandemic is considered a major threat to global public health. The aim of our study was to use the official epidemiological data to forecast the epidemic curves (daily new cases) of the COVID-19 using Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), then to compare and validate the predicted models with the observed data. METHODS: We used publicly available datasets from the World Health Organization and Johns Hopkins University to create a training dataset, then we employed RNNs with gated recurring units (Long Short-Term Memory - LSTM units) to create two prediction models. Our proposed approach considers an ensemble-based system, which is realized by interconnecting several neural networks. To achieve the appropriate diversity, we froze some network layers that control the way how the model parameters are updated. In addition, we could provide country-specific predictions by transfer learning, and with extra feature injections from governmental constraints, better predictions in the longer term are achieved. We have calculated the Root Mean Squared Logarithmic Error (RMSLE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) to thoroughly compare our model predictions with the observed data. RESULTS: We reported the predicted curves for France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States of America. The result of our study underscores that the COVID-19 pandemic is a propagated source epidemic, therefore repeated peaks on the epidemic curve are to be anticipated. Besides, the errors between the predicted and validated data and trends seem to be low. CONCLUSION: Our proposed model has shown satisfactory accuracy in predicting the new cases of COVID-19 in certain contexts. The influence of this pandemic is significant worldwide and has already impacted most life domains. Decision-makers must be aware, that even if strict public health measures are executed and sustained, future peaks of infections are possible. The AI-based models are useful tools for forecasting epidemics as these models can be recalculated according to the newly observed data to get a more precise forecasting.

Vestibular Stimulation May Drive Multisensory Processing: Principles for Targeted Sensorimotor Therapy (TSMT).

At birth, the vestibular system is fully mature, whilst higher order sensory processing is yet to develop in the full-term neonate. The current paper lays out a theoretical framework to account for the role vestibular stimulation may have driving multisensory and sensorimotor integration. Accordingly, vestibular stimulation, by activating the parieto-insular vestibular cortex, and/or the posterior parietal cortex may provide the cortical input for multisensory neurons in the superior colliculus that is needed for multisensory processing. Furthermore, we propose that motor development, by inducing change of reference frames, may shape the receptive field of multisensory neurons. This, by leading to lack of spatial contingency between formally contingent stimuli, may cause degradation of prior motor responses. Additionally, we offer a testable hypothesis explaining the beneficial effect of sensory integration therapies regarding attentional processes. Key concepts of a sensorimotor integration therapy (e.g., targeted sensorimotor therapy (TSMT)) are also put into a neurological context. TSMT utilizes specific tools and instruments. It is administered in 8-weeks long successive treatment regimens, each gradually increasing vestibular and postural stimulation, so sensory-motor integration is facilitated, and muscle strength is increased. Empirically TSMT is indicated for various diseases. Theoretical foundations of this sensorimotor therapy are discussed.

Expectations, values, preferences and experiences of Hungarian primary care population when accessing services: Evaluation of the patient's questionnaires of the international QUALICOPC study.

BACKGROUND: Preferences and wishes of patients is an important indicator of primary health care provision, although there are differences between national primary care systems. AIM: The aim of this paper is to describe and evaluate the preferences and values of Hungarian primary care (PC) patients before accessing and to analyse their experiences after attending PC services. METHODS: In the Hungarian arm of the European QUALICOPC Study, in 2013-2014, information was collected with questionnaires; the Patient Values contained 19 and the Patient Experiences had 41 multiple-choice questions. FINDINGS: The questionnaires were filled by 2149 (840 men, 1309 women) using PC services, aged 49.1 (SD ± 16.7) years, 73% of them having chronic morbidities. Women preferred to be accompanied and rated their own health better. Patients in the lowest educational category and women visited their GPs more often, and they are consulted more frequently by other doctors as well. Men, older and secondary educated people reported more frequently chronic morbidities. Longer opening hours were preferred by patients with higher education. The most preferred expectations were availability and polite communication of doctors, not pressures on consultation time, clear instructions provided during consultations, shared decisions about treatments and options for consultations, the knowledge of the doctors concerning the living conditions, social and cultural backgrounds of patients, updated medical records, short waiting times, options for home visits, wide scope of professional competences and trust in the doctor. CONCLUSION: Wishes, preferences of patients and fulfilment were similar than described in other participating countries of the study. Although there are room to improve PC services, most of the questioned population were satisfied with the provision.

Health anxiety, perceived stress, and coping styles in the shadow of the COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: In the case of people who carry an increased number of anxiety traits and maladaptive coping strategies, psychosocial stressors may further increase the level of perceived stress they experience. In our research study, we aimed to examine the levels of perceived stress and health anxiety as well as coping styles among university students amid the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted using an online-based survey at the University of Debrecen during the official lockdown in Hungary when dormitories were closed, and teaching was conducted remotely. Our questionnaire solicited data using three assessment tools, namely, the Perceived Stress Scale (PSS), the Ways of Coping Questionnaire (WCQ), and the Short Health Anxiety Inventory (SHAI). RESULTS: A total of 1320 students have participated in our study and 31 non-eligible responses were excluded. Among the remaining 1289 participants, 948 (73.5%) and 341 (26.5%) were Hungarian and international students, respectively. Female students predominated the overall sample with 920 participants (71.4%). In general, there was a statistically significant positive relationship between perceived stress and health anxiety. Health anxiety and perceived stress levels were significantly higher among international students compared to domestic ones. Regarding coping, wishful thinking was associated with higher levels of stress and anxiety among international students, while being a goal-oriented person acted the opposite way. Among the domestic students, cognitive restructuring as a coping strategy was associated with lower levels of stress and anxiety. Concerning health anxiety, female students (domestic and international) had significantly higher levels of health anxiety compared to males. Moreover, female students had significantly higher levels of perceived stress compared to males in the international group, however, there was no significant difference in perceived stress between males and females in the domestic group. CONCLUSION: The elevated perceived stress levels during major life events can be further deepened by disengagement from home (being away/abroad from country or family) and by using inadequate coping strategies. By following and adhering to the international recommendations, adopting proper coping methods, and equipping oneself with the required coping and stress management skills, the associated high levels of perceived stress and anxiety could be mitigated.

Assessment of patient flow and optimized use of lean thinking transformation from the perspective of graph theory and spectral graph theory: A case study.

BACKGROUND: Hospital re-engineering initiatives aiming to meet the requirement for patient-centered care often face significant barriers. Opportunities from the optimization of patient flow logistics are often overlooked due to the perception that patient transport related services are ancillary. OBJECTIVES: To reorganize patient pathways by optimizing inpatient assignment and outpatient unit relocation. METHODS: Our analysis was conducted in a campus-based hospital hosting 1694 inpatient beds. Patient flow data was used for algorithm-based optimization to minimize the sum of the distances due to visits to outpatient units and visits by consulting physicians. Inpatients were reordered and outpatient units were relocated to minimize transport need. Optimized schemes were analyzed using graph- and spectral graph theory. RESULTS: Both optimizations yielded an altered hospital layout in which the need for patient transfers decreased (over 30% and 23% in terms of total distance and transfer episodes, respectively). The optimized systems gave rise to buildings with greater specialization, higher importance in terms of contributing to the network architecture, greater synchronization and robustness. CONCLUSIONS: The top-down algorithm-based optimization scheme yielded a system in which the need for cross-building patient transfer decreased. We suggest that network analysis may be a useful tool for capacity planning.

The use of the Hungarian Test Your Memory (TYM-HUN), MMSE, and ADAS-Cog tests for patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) in a Hungarian population: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) often presages the development of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Accurate and early identification of cognitive impairment will substantially reduce the burden on the family and alleviate the costs for the whole society. There is a need for testing methods that are easy to perform even in a general practitioner's office, inexpensive and non-invasive, which could help the early recognition of mental decline. We have selected the Test Your Memory (TYM), which has proven to be reliable for detecting AD and MCI in several countries. Our study was designed to test the usability of the Hungarian version of the TYM (TYM-HUN) comparing with the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) and the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive Subscale (ADAS-Cog) in MCI recognition in the Hungarian population. METHODS: TYM test was translated and validated into Hungarian (TYM-HUN) in a previous study. The TYM-HUN test was used in conjunction with and compared with the MMSE and the ADAS-Cog. For our study, 50 subjects were selected: 25 MCI patients and 25 healthy controls (HC). Spearman's rank correlation was used to analyse the correlation between the scores of MMSE and ADAS-Cog with TYM-HUN and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was established. RESULTS: MCI can be distinguished from normal aging using TYM-HUN. We established a 'cut-off' point of TYM-HUN (44/45points) where optimal sensitivity (80%) and specificity (96%) values were obtained to screen MCI. The total TYM-HUN scores significantly correlated with the MMSE scores (ρ = 0.626; p < 0.001) and ADAS-Cog scores (ρ = - 0.723; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Our results showed that the TYM-HUN is a reliable, fast, self-administered questionnaire with the right low threshold regarding MCI and can be used for the early diagnosis of cognitive impairment.

Acute stroke awareness of family physicians: translation of policy to practice.

BACKGROUND: Translating clinical guidelines into routine clinical practice is mandatory to achieve population level improvement of health. Emergence of specific therapy for acute stroke yielded the 'time is brain' concept introducing the need for emergency treatment, pointing to the need for increasing stroke awareness of the general population. General practitioners (GPs) manage chronic diseases and could hence catalyse stroke awareness. In our study, the knowledge of general practitioners toward accurate identification of acute stroke candidacy was investigated. METHODS: GPs and residents in training for family medicine participated in a survey on a voluntary basis using supervised self-administration between the 1st of February 2018 and 31st July 2018. Two clinical cases of acute stroke that differed only regarding the patient's eligibility for intravenous thrombolysis were presented. Participants answered two open-ended questions. Text analysis was performed using NVIVO software. RESULTS: Of the 127 respondents, 69 (54.3%) were female. The median age was 49 (34-62) years. The median time spent working after graduation was 14.5 (2-22.5) years. Board-certified GPs made up 77.2% of the sample. Qualitative analysis revealed stroke as the most frequent diagnosis for both cases. Territorial localization and possible aetiology were also established. Respondents properly identified eligibility for thrombolysis. Quantitative assessment showed that having the practice closer to the stroke centre increases the likelihood of adequate diagnosis for acute stroke. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show that GPs properly diagnose acute stroke and identify intravenous thrombolysis candidates. Moreover, we found that a vigorous acute stroke triage system facilitates the translation of theory into practice.

Altered irisin/BDNF axis parallels excessive daytime sleepiness in obstructive sleep apnea patients.

STUDY OBJECTIVES: Obstructive sleep apnea hypopnea syndrome (OSAHS) is a sleep-related breathing disorder, characterized by excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS), paralleled by intermittent collapse of the upper airway. EDS may be the symptom of OSAHS per se but may also be due to the alteration of central circadian regulation. Irisin is a putative myokine and has been shown to induce BDNF expression in several sites of the brain. BDNF is a key factor regulating photic entrainment and consequent circadian alignment and adaptation to the environment. Therefore, we hypothesized that EDS accompanying OSAHS is reflected by alteration of irisin/BDNF axis. METHODS: Case history, routine laboratory parameters, serum irisin and BDNF levels, polysomnographic measures and Epworth Sleepiness Scale questionnaire (ESS) were performed in a cohort of OSAHS patients (n = 69). Simple and then multiple linear regression was used to evaluate data. RESULTS: We found that EDS reflected by the ESS is associated with higher serum irisin and BDNF levels; ß: 1.53; CI: 0.35, 6.15; p = 0.012 and ß: 0.014; CI: 0.0.005, 0.023; p = 0.02, respectively. Furthermore, influence of irisin and BDNF was significant even if the model accounted for their interaction (p = 0.006 for the terms serum irisin, serum BDNF and their interaction). Furthermore, a concentration-dependent effect of both serum irisin and BDNF was evidenced with respect to their influence on the ESS. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that the irisin-BDNF axis influences subjective daytime sleepiness in OSAS patients reflected by the ESS. These results further imply the possible disruption of the circadian regulation in OSAHS. Future interventional studies are needed to confirm this observation.

Patient-related factors, antibiotic prescribing and antimicrobial resistance of the commensal Staphylococcus aureus and Streptococcus pneumoniae in a healthy population - Hungarian results of the APRES study.

BACKGROUND: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is an increasing public health problem worldwide. We studied some patient-related factors that might influence the antimicrobial resistance. and whether the volume of antibiotic prescribing of the primary care physicians correlate with the antibiotic resistance rates of commensal nasal Staphylococcus aureus and Streptococcus pneumoniae. METHODS: The socio-demographic questionnaires, the antibiotic prescription and resistance data of commensal nasal S. aureus and S. pneumoniae were collected in the 20 participating Hungarian practices of the APRES study. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed on the patient-related data and the antimicrobial resistance of the S. aureus and S. pneumoniae on individual, patient level. Ecological analyses were performed with Spearman's rank correlations at practice level, the analyses were performed in the whole sample (all practices) and in the cohorts of primary care practices taking care of adults (adult practices) or children (paediatric practices). RESULTS: According to the multivariate model, age of the patients significantly influenced the antimicrobial resistance of the S. aureus (OR = 0.42, p = 0.004) and S. pneumoniae (OR = 0.89, p < 0.001). Living with children significantly increased the AMR of the S. pneumoniae (OR = 1.23, p = 0.019). In the cohorts of adult or paediatric practices, neither the age nor other variables influenced the AMR of the S. aureus and S. pneumoniae. At practice level, the prescribed volume of penicillins significantly correlated with the resistance rates of the S. aureus isolates to penicillin (rho = 0.57, p = 0.008). The volume of prescribed macrolides, lincosamides showed positive significant correlations with the S. pneumoniae resistance rates to clarithromycin and/or clindamycin in all practices (rho = 0.76, p = 0.001) and in the adult practices (rho = 0.63, p = 0.021). CONCLUSIONS: The age is an important influencing factor of antimicrobial resistance. The results also suggest that there may be an association between the antibiotic prescribing of the primary care providers and the antibiotic resistance of the commensal S. aureus and S. pneumoniae. The role of the primary care physicians in the appropriate antibiotic prescribing is very important to avoid the antibiotic resistance.

Blind Spot for Sedentarism: Redefining the Diseasome of Physical Inactivity in View of Circadian System and the Irisin/BDNF Axis.

Introduction: The term "diseasome of physical inactivity" was coined by Pedersen to explain clustering of chronic diseases linked to physical inactivity. Accordingly, physical inactivity per se contributes to the accumulation of visceral fat, which, generates chronic low-grade systemic inflammation, contributes to emergence of chronic, non-communicable diseases. Diversity of these disorders posits the possible involvement of a supraphysiological system. Methods: Hypothesis driven literature search and deductive reasoning was used to review relevant literature and formulate a novel theory. Results: We have identified the circadian system, omnipresent in virtually every cell, as a possible vehicle for brain muscle crosstalk, explaining some aspects of the diseasome of physical inactivity This system is hierarchically organized, with the suprachiasmatic nucleus (SCN) being the master clock that entrains to the dark/light cycle and synchronizes subsidiary molecular clocks in the periphery. Insufficient photic entrainment also causes chronic disease evolution. The recently identified irisin, was shown to induce brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) production in several brain areas. BDNF assumes significant role in gating light's influence in the retinohypothalamic synapse, by having a permissive effect on glutamate signal transduction underlying photic entrainment. Conclusions: Here we provide theoretical evidence to support the hypothesis that irisin may facilitate photic entrainment of the SCN, via BDNF. By this irisin opens up possible pathways for peripheral non-photic entrainment signals to exert influence on the master clock that is otherwise resistant to these. Furthermore, we suggest that intertwining processes of circadian, redox, inflammatory, and myokine systems lay underneath the diseasome of physical inactivity.

Validation of the Hungarian version of the Test Your Memory.

Concerns regarding the projected prevalence of Alzheimer's disease (AD) over the next several decades have stimulated a need for the detection of AD in its earliest stages. A self-administered cognitive test (Test Your Memory, TYM) is designed as a short, cognitive screening tool for the detection of AD. Our aim was to validate the Hungarian version of the Test Your Memory (TYM-HUN) test for the detection of AD. The TYM-HUN was applied in case of individuals aged 60 years or more, 50 patients with AD and 50 healthy controls were recruited into the study. We compared the diagnostic utility of the Hungarian version of the TYM in AD with that of the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE). The sensitivity and specificity of the TYM-HUN in the detection of Alzheimer's disease were determined. The patients with AD scored an average of 15.5/30 on the MMSE and 20.3/50 on the TYM-HUN. The average score achieved by the members of the healthy control group was 27.3/30 on the MMSE and 42.7/50 on the TYM. The total TYM-HUN scores significantly correlated with the MMSE scores (Spearman's rho, r=0.8830; p<0.001). Multivariate logistic regression model demonstrated that a one-point increase in the TYM score reduced the probability of having AD by 36%. The optimal cut-off score on the TYM-HUN was 35/36 along with 94% sensitivity and 94% specificity for the detection of AD. The TYM has a much wider scoring range than the MMSE and is also a suitable screening tool for memory problems, furthermore, it fulfils the requirements of being a short cognitive test for the non-specialists. The TYM-HUN is useful for the detection of Alzheimer's disease and can be applied as a screening test in Hungarian memory clinics as well as in primary care settings.