Prediction of Metastatic Patterns in Bladder Cancer: Spatiotemporal Progression and Development of a Novel, Web-based Platform for Clinical Utility.

BACKGROUND: Bladder cancer (BCa), the sixth commonest cancer in the USA, is highly lethal when metastatic. Spatial and temporal patterns of patient-specific metastatic spread are deemed random and unpredictable. Whether BCa metastatic patterns can be quantified and predicted more accurately is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To develop a web-based calculator for forecasting metastatic progression in individual BCa patients. DESIGN SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: We used a prospectively collected longitudinal dataset of 3503 BCa patients who underwent a radical cystectomy following diagnosis and were enrolled continuously. We subdivided patients by their pathologic subgroup stages of organ confined (OC), extravesical (EV), and node positive (N+). We illustrated metastatic pathway progression using color-coded, circular, tree ring diagrams. We created a dynamical, data-visualization, web-based platform that displays temporal, spatial, and Markov modeling figures with predictive capability. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Patients underwent history and physical examination, serum studies, and liver function tests. Surveillance follow-up included computed tomography scans, chest x-rays, and radiographic evaluation of the reservoir and upper tracts, with bone scans performed only if clinically indicated. Outcomes were measured by time to clinical recurrence and overall or progression-free survival. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: Metastases developed in 29% of patients (n = 812; median follow-up 15.3 yr), with 5-yr overall survival of 20.2%, compared with 78.6% in those without metastases (n = 1983; median follow-up 10.9 yr). The three commonest sites of spread at the time of first progression were bone (n = 214; 26.4%), pelvis (n = 194; 23.9%), and lung (n = 194; 23.9%). The order and frequency of these sites vary when divided by pathologic subgroup stages of OC (lung [n = 65; 25.1%], urethra [n = 45; 17.4%], and bone [n = 29; 11.2%]), EV (pelvis [n = 63; 33.0%], bone [n = 45; 23.6%], and lung [n = 29; 15.2%]), and N+ (bone [n = 111; 30.7%], retroperitoneum [n = 70; 19.3%], and pelvis [n = 60; 16.6%]). Markov chain modeling indicated a higher probability of spread from bladder to bone (15.5%), pelvis (14.7%), and lung (14.2%). CONCLUSIONS: Our web-based calculator allows real-time analyses in the clinic based on individual patient-specific demographic and cancer data elements. For contrasting subgroups, the models indicated differences in Markov transition probabilities. Spatiotemporal patterns of BCa metastasis and sites of spread indicated underlying organotropic mechanisms in the prediction of response. This recognition opens the possibility of organ site-specific therapeutic targeting in the oligometastatic BCa setting. In the precision medicine era, visualization of complex, time-resolved clinical data will enhance management of postoperative metastatic BCa patients. PATIENT SUMMARY: We developed a web-based calculator to forecast metastatic progression for individual bladder cancer (BCa) patients, based on the clinical and demographic information obtained at diagnosis. This can help in predicting disease status and survival, and improving management in postoperative metastatic BCa patients. TAKE HOME MESSAGE: Future pathways of metastatic progression for individual bladder cancer patients can be determined based on currently available clinical and demographic information obtained at diagnosis. In focused subgroups of patients, these metastatic spread patterns can also portend disease status and survival.

Use of Wearable Activity Tracker in Patients With Cancer Undergoing Chemotherapy: Toward Evaluating Risk of Unplanned Health Care Encounters.

PURPOSE: Unplanned health care encounters (UHEs) such as emergency room visits can occur commonly during cancer chemotherapy treatments. Patients at an increased risk of UHEs are typically identified by clinicians using performance status (PS) assessments based on a descriptive scale, such as the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) scale. Such assessments can be bias prone, resulting in PS score disagreements between assessors. We therefore propose to evaluate PS using physical activity measurements (eg, energy expenditure) from wearable activity trackers. Specifically, we examined the feasibility of using a wristband (band) and a smartphone app for PS assessments. METHODS: We conducted an observational study on a cohort of patients with solid tumor receiving highly emetogenic chemotherapy. Patients were instructed to wear the band for a 60-day activity-tracking period. During clinic visits, we obtained ECOG scores assessed by physicians, coordinators, and patients themselves. UHEs occurring during the activity-tracking period plus a 90-day follow-up period were later compiled. We defined our primary outcome as the percentage of patients adherent to band-wear ≥ 80% of 10 am to 8 pm for ≥ 80% of the activity-tracking period. In an exploratory analysis, we computed hourly metabolic equivalent of task (MET) and counted 10 am to 8 pm hours with > 1.5 METs as nonsedentary physical activity hours. RESULTS: Forty-one patients completed the study (56.1% female; 61.0% age 40-60 years); 68% were adherent to band-wear. ECOG score disagreement between assessors ranged from 35.3% to 50.0%. In our exploratory analysis, lower average METs and nonsedentary hours, but not higher ECOG scores, were associated with higher 150-day UHEs. CONCLUSION: The use of a wearable activity tracker is generally feasible in a similar population of patients with cancer. A larger randomized controlled trial should be conducted to confirm the association between lower nonsedentary hours and higher UHEs.

Quantified Kinematics to Evaluate Patient Chemotherapy Risks in Clinic.

PURPOSE: Performance status (PS) is a key factor in oncologic decision making, but conventional scales used to measure PS vary among observers. Consumer-grade biometric sensors have previously been identified as objective alternatives to the assessment of PS. Here, we investigate how one such biometric sensor can be used during a clinic visit to identify patients who are at risk for complications, particularly unexpected hospitalizations that may delay treatment or result in low physical activity. We aim to provide a novel and objective means of predicting tolerability to chemotherapy. METHODS: Thirty-eight patients across three centers in the United States who were diagnosed with a solid tumor with plans for treatment with two cycles of highly emetogenic chemotherapy were included in this single-arm, observational prospective study. A noninvasive motion-capture system quantified patient movement from chair to table and during the get-up-and-walk test. Activity levels were recorded using a wearable sensor over a 2-month period. Changes in kinematics from two motion-capture data points pre- and post-treatment were tested for correlation with unexpected hospitalizations and physical activity levels as measured by a wearable activity sensor. RESULTS: Among 38 patients (mean age, 48.3 years; 53% female), kinematic features from chair to table were the best predictors for unexpected health care encounters (area under the curve, 0.775 ± 0.029) and physical activity (area under the curve, 0.830 ± 0.080). Chair-to-table acceleration of the nonpivoting knee (t = 3.39; P = .002) was most correlated with unexpected health care encounters. Get-up-and-walk kinematics were most correlated with physical activity, particularly the right knee acceleration (t = -2.95; P = .006) and left arm angular velocity (t = -2.4; P = .025). CONCLUSION: Chair-to-table kinematics are good predictors of unexpected hospitalizations, whereas the get-up-and-walk kinematics are good predictors of low physical activity.

OrgDyn: feature- and model-based characterization of spatial and temporal organoid dynamics.

SUMMARY: Organoid model systems recapitulate key features of mammalian tissues and enable high throughput experiments. However, the impact of these experiments may be limited by manual, non-standardized, static or qualitative phenotypic analysis. OrgDyn is an open-source and modular pipeline to quantify organoid shape dynamics using a combination of feature- and model-based approaches on time series of 2D organoid contour images. Our pipeline consists of (i) geometrical and signal processing feature extraction, (ii) dimensionality reduction to differentiate dynamical paths, (iii) time series clustering to identify coherent groups of organoids and (iv) dynamical modeling using point distribution models to explain temporal shape variation. OrgDyn can characterize, cluster and model differences among unique dynamical paths that define diverse final shapes, thus enabling quantitative analysis of the molecular basis of tissue development and disease. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: https://github.com/zakih/organoidDynamics (BSD 3-Clause License). SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Machine learning models for predicting post-cystectomy recurrence and survival in bladder cancer patients.

Currently in patients with bladder cancer, various clinical evaluations (imaging, operative findings at transurethral resection and radical cystectomy, pathology) are collectively used to determine disease status and prognosis, and recommend neoadjuvant, definitive and adjuvant treatments. We analyze the predictive power of these measurements in forecasting two key long-term outcomes following radical cystectomy, i.e., cancer recurrence and survival. Information theory and machine learning algorithms are employed to create predictive models using a large prospective, continuously collected, temporally resolved, primary bladder cancer dataset comprised of 3503 patients (1971-2016). Patient recurrence and survival one, three, and five years after cystectomy can be predicted with greater than 70% sensitivity and specificity. Such predictions may inform patient monitoring schedules and post-cystectomy treatments. The machine learning models provide a benchmark for predicting oncologic outcomes in patients undergoing radical cystectomy and highlight opportunities for improving care using optimal preoperative and operative data collection.

Low-dimensional dynamical characterization of human performance of cancer patients using motion data.

BACKGROUND: Biomechanical characterization of human performance with respect to fatigue and fitness is relevant in many settings, however is usually limited to either fully qualitative assessments or invasive methods which require a significant experimental setup consisting of numerous sensors, force plates, and motion detectors. Qualitative assessments are difficult to standardize due to their intrinsic subjective nature, on the other hand, invasive methods provide reliable metrics but are not feasible for large scale applications. METHODS: Presented here is a dynamical toolset for detecting performance groups using a non-invasive system based on the Microsoft Kinect motion capture sensor, and a case study of 37 cancer patients performing two clinically monitored tasks before and after therapy regimens. Dynamical features are extracted from the motion time series data and evaluated based on their ability to i) cluster patients into coherent fitness groups using unsupervised learning algorithms and to ii) predict Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status via supervised learning. FINDINGS: The unsupervised patient clustering is comparable to clustering based on physician assigned Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group status in that they both have similar concordance with change in weight before and after therapy as well as unexpected hospitalizations throughout the study. The extracted dynamical features can predict physician, coordinator, and patient Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group status with an accuracy of approximately 80%. INTERPRETATION: The non-invasive Microsoft Kinect sensor and the proposed dynamical toolset comprised of data preprocessing, feature extraction, dimensionality reduction, and machine learning offers a low-cost and general method for performance segregation and can complement existing qualitative clinical assessments.

The prisoner's dilemma as a cancer model.

Tumor development is an evolutionary process in which a heterogeneous population of cells with different growth capabilities compete for resources in order to gain a proliferative advantage. What are the minimal ingredients needed to recreate some of the emergent features of such a developing complex ecosystem? What is a tumor doing before we can detect it? We outline a mathematical model, driven by a stochastic Moran process, in which cancer cells and healthy cells compete for dominance in the population. Each are assigned payoffs according to a Prisoner's Dilemma evolutionary game where the healthy cells are the cooperators and the cancer cells are the defectors. With point mutational dynamics, heredity, and a fitness landscape controlling birth and death rates, natural selection acts on the cell population and simulated 'cancer-like' features emerge, such as Gompertzian tumor growth driven by heterogeneity, the log-kill law which (linearly) relates therapeutic dose density to the (log) probability of cancer cell survival, and the Norton-Simon hypothesis which (linearly) relates tumor regression rates to tumor growth rates. We highlight the utility, clarity, and power that such models provide, despite (and because of) their simplicity and built-in assumptions.

AN EVOLUTIONARY MODEL OF TUMOR CELL KINETICS AND THE EMERGENCE OF MOLECULAR HETEROGENEITY DRIVING GOMPERTZIAN GROWTH.

We describe a cell-molecular based evolutionary mathematical model of tumor development driven by a stochastic Moran birth-death process. The cells in the tumor carry molecular information in the form of a numerical genome which we represent as a four-digit binary string used to differentiate cells into 16 molecular types. The binary string is able to undergo stochastic point mutations that are passed to a daughter cell after each birth event. The value of the binary string determines the cell fitness, with lower fit cells (e.g. 0000) defined as healthy phenotypes, and higher fit cells (e.g. 1111) defined as malignant phenotypes. At each step of the birth-death process, the two phenotypic sub-populations compete in a prisoner's dilemma evolutionary game with the healthy cells playing the role of cooperators, and the cancer cells playing the role of defectors. Fitness, birth-death rates of the cell populations, and overall tumor fitness are defined via the prisoner's dilemma payoff matrix. Mutation parameters include passenger mutations (mutations conferring no fitness advantage) and driver mutations (mutations which increase cell fitness). The model is used to explore key emergent features associated with tumor development, including tumor growth rates as it relates to intratumor molecular heterogeneity. The tumor growth equation states that the growth rate is proportional to the logarithm of cellular diversity/heterogeneity. The Shannon entropy from information theory is used as a quantitative measure of heterogeneity and tumor complexity based on the distribution of the 4-digit binary sequences produced by the cell population. To track the development of heterogeneity from an initial population of healthy cells (0000), we use dynamic phylogenetic trees which show clonal and sub-clonal expansions of cancer cell sub-populations from an initial malignant cell. We show tumor growth rates are not constant throughout tumor development, and are generally much higher in the subclinical range than in later stages of development, which leads to a Gompertzian growth curve. We explain the early exponential growth of the tumor and the later saturation associated with the Gompertzian curve which results from our evolutionary simulations using simple statistical mechanics principles related to the degree of functional coupling of the cell states. We then compare dosing strategies at early stage development, mid-stage (clinical stage), and late stage development of the tumor. If used early during tumor development in the subclinical stage, well before the cancer cell population is selected for growth, therapy is most effective at disrupting key emergent features of tumor development.