A nomogram for predicting survival in patients with gastrointestinal stromal tumor: a study based on the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results database.

Purpose: The objective of this investigation was to construct and validate a nomogram for prognosticating cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients afflicted with gastrointestinal stromal tumor (GIST) at 3-, 5-, and 8-years post-diagnosis. Methods: Data pertaining to patients diagnosed with GIST were acquired from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Through random selection, a training cohort (70%) and a validation cohort (30%) were established from the patient population. Employing a backward stepwise Cox regression model, independent prognostic factors were identified. Subsequently, these factors were incorporated into the nomogram to forecast CSS rates at 3-, 5-, and 8-years following diagnosis. The nomogram's performance was assessed using indicators such as the consistency index (C-index), the area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), the net reclassification improvement (NRI), the integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), calibration curves, and decision-curve analysis (DCA). Results: This investigation encompassed a cohort of 3,062 GIST patients. By analyzing the Cox regression model within the training cohort, nine prognostic factors were identified: age, sex, race, marital status, AJCC (American Joint Committee on Cancer) stage, surgical status, chemotherapy status, radiation status, and income status. The nomogram was subsequently developed and subjected to both internal and external validation. The nomogram exhibited favorable discrimination abilities, as evidenced by notably high C-indices and AUC values. Calibration curves confirmed the nomogram's reliability. Moreover, the nomogram outperformed the AJCC model, as demonstrated by enhanced NRI and IDI values. The DCA curves validated the clinical utility of the nomogram. Conclusion: The present study has successfully constructed and validated the initial nomogram for predicting prognosis in GIST patients. The nomogram's performance and practicality suggest its potential utility in clinical settings. Nevertheless, further external validation is warranted.

Transcriptome profile analysis in spinal cord injury rats with transplantation of menstrual blood-derived stem cells.

Introduction: Menstrual blood-derived stem cells (MenSCs) are vital in treating many degenerative and traumatic disorders. However, the underlying molecular mechanisms remain obscure in MenSCs-treating spinal cord injury (SCI) rats. Methods: MenSCs were adopted into the injured sites of rat spinal cords at day 7 post surgery and the tissues were harvested for total RNA sequencing analysis at day 21 after surgery to investigate the expression patterns of RNAs. The differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were analyzed with volcano and heatmap plot. DEGs were sequentially analyzed by weighted gene co-expression network, functional enrichment, and competitive endogenous RNAs (ceRNA) network analysis. Next, expression of selected miRNAs, lncRNAs, circRNAs and mRNAs were validated by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR). Bioinformatics packages and extra databases were enrolled to scoop the genes functions and their interaction relationships. Results: A total of 89 lncRNAs, 65 circRNAs, 120 miRNAs and 422 mRNAs were significantly upregulated and 65 lncRNAs, 72 circRNAs, 74 miRNAs, and 190 mRNAs were significantly downregulated in the MenSCs treated rats compared to SCI ones. Current investigation revealed that MenSCs treatment improve the recovery of the injured rats and the most significantly involved pathways in SCI regeneration were cell adhesion molecules, nature killer cell mediated cytotoxicity, primary immunodeficiency, chemokine signaling pathway, T cell receptor signaling pathway and B cell receptor signaling pathway. Moreover, the lncRNA-miRNA-mRNA and circRNA-miRNA-mRNA ceRNA network of SCI was constructed. Finally, the protein-protein interaction (PPI) network was constructed using the top 100 DE mRNAs. The constructed PPI network included 47 nodes and 70 edges. Discussion: In summary, the above results revealed the expression profile and potential functions of differentially expressed (DE) RNAs in the injured spinal cords of rats in the MenSCs-treated and SCI groups, and this study may provide new clues to understand the mechanisms of MenSCs in treating SCI.

Etiological Changes and Prognosis of Hospitalized Patients with Acute Pancreatitis Over a 15-Year Period.

BACKGROUND: The worldwide incidence of acute pancreatitis (AP) is increasing, but the dominant etiology of AP may vary by country. Mixed etiologies are involved in the increase in the number of AP patients. AIMS: This study was to analyze the etiological changes and prognosis of AP patients and explore the prognosis of AP patients with mixed etiologies. METHODS: Using a retrospective analysis method, AP patients hospitalized from January 2007 to December 2021 were selected from a pancreatic center in Nanchang, China. Trends in the main etiologies were analyzed, and the severity and prognosis of different etiologies were compared. RESULTS: A total of 10,071 patients were included. Cholelithiasis (56.0%), hyperlipidemia (25.3%), and alcohol (6.5%) were the top three etiologies. The proportion of acute biliary pancreatitis (ABP) showed a decreasing trend, while the proportion of hypertriglyceridemic pancreatitis (HTGP) and alcoholic AP showed an increasing trend (all ptrend < 0.001). The incidence of organ failure and necrotizing pancreatitis was higher in patients with HTGP than in those with AP induced by other etiologies (all p < 0.05). There was no statistically significant difference in mortality among patients with different etiologies. Patients with AP due to a mixed hypertriglyceridemia-alcoholic etiology had higher ICU admission rates and were more severe than those with AP induced by other mixed etiologies. CONCLUSION: In the past 15 years, the proportion of ABP has trended downward, while those of HTGP and alcoholic AP have risen. Among patients with mixed etiologies, those with a mixed hypertriglyceridemia-alcoholic etiology had a worse prognosis.

Discharge protocol in acute pancreatitis: an international survey and cohort analysis.

There are several overlapping clinical practice guidelines in acute pancreatitis (AP), however, none of them contains suggestions on patient discharge. The Hungarian Pancreatic Study Group (HPSG) has recently developed a laboratory data and symptom-based discharge protocol which needs to be validated. (1) A survey was conducted involving all members of the International Association of Pancreatology (IAP) to understand the characteristics of international discharge protocols. (2) We investigated the safety and effectiveness of the HPSG-discharge protocol. According to our international survey, 87.5% (49/56) of the centres had no discharge protocol. Patients discharged based on protocols have a significantly shorter median length of hospitalization (LOH) (7 (5;10) days vs. 8 (5;12) days) p < 0.001), and a lower rate of readmission due to recurrent AP episodes (p = 0.005). There was no difference in median discharge CRP level among the international cohorts (p = 0.586). HPSG-protocol resulted in the shortest LOH (6 (5;9) days) and highest median CRP (35.40 (13.78; 68.40) mg/l). Safety was confirmed by the low rate of readmittance (n = 35; 5%). Discharge protocol is necessary in AP. The discharge protocol used in this study is the first clinically proven protocol. Developing and testifying further protocols are needed to better standardize patients' care.

Elevated CK-MB levels are associated with adverse clinical outcomes in acute pancreatitis: a propensity score-matched study.

Aim: Cardiac injury, reflected by the measured concentrations of chemicals released from injured cardiac muscle, is common in acute pancreatitis (AP). However, there is no adequate evidence assessing the impact of cardiac injury on AP-related outcomes. Creatine kinase-myocardial band (CK-MB) mainly exists in the myocardium. Therefore, we sought to evaluate the relationship between the increase in CK-MB and the adverse clinical outcomes of AP. Methods: This propensity score-matched study analyzed AP patients admitted to the Department of Gastroenterology in the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University from June 2017 to July 2022. Propensity score matching and multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to explore the relationship between CK-MB elevation and AP outcome variables. Results: A total of 5,944 patients were screened for eligibility, of whom 4,802 were ultimately enrolled. Overall, 896 (18.66%) of AP patients had elevated (>24 U/ml) CK-MB levels, and 895 (99.89%) were paired with controls using propensity score matching. The propensity score-matched cohort analysis demonstrated that mortality (OR, 5.87; 95% CI, 3.89-8.84; P < 0.001), severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) (OR, 2.74; 95% CI, 2.23-3.35; P < 0.001), and infected necrotizing pancreatitis (INP) (OR, 3.40; 95% CI, 2.34-4.94; P < 0.001) were more frequent in the elevated CK-MB (>24 U/ml) group than in the normal CK-MB (≤ 24 U/ml) group. Using the multivariate logistic regression analysis, elevated CK-MB levels were independently associated with increased mortality (OR, 2.753, 95% CI, 2.095-3.617, P < 0.001), SAP incidence (OR, 2.223, CI, 1.870-2.643, P < 0.001), and INP incidence (OR, 1.913, 95% CI, 1.467-2.494, P < 0.001). CK-MB elevation was an independent risk factor for adverse clinical outcomes in AP patients. Conclusion: CK-MB elevation was significantly related to adverse outcomes in AP patients, which makes it a potentially useful laboratory parameter for predicting adverse clinical outcomes of AP.

Albumin infusion may decrease the mortality of hypoalbuminemia patients with severe acute pancreatitis: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: At present, the relationship between severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) and albumin infusion is not clear. We aimed to identify the impact of serum albumin on the prognosis of SAP and the association between albumin infusions and mortality for hypoalbuminemia patients. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study that analyzed 1000 patients with SAP who were admitted to the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University between January 2010 and December 2021 using data from a prospectively maintained database. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was conducted to reveal the relationship between serum albumin within 1 week after admission and poor prognosis of SAP. Propensity score matching (PSM) analysis was adopted to evaluate the effect of albumin infusion for hypoalbuminemia patients with SAP. RESULTS: The prevalence of hypoalbuminemia (≤ 30 g/L) was 56.9% within 1 week after admission. Multivariate logistic regression identified that age (OR: 1.02; 95% CI: 1.00-1.04; P = 0.012), serum urea (OR: 1.08; 95% CI: 1.04-1.12; P < 0.001), serum calcium (OR: 0.27; 95% CI: 0.14-0.50; P < 0.001), lowest albumin level within 1 week after admission (OR: 0.93; 95% CI: 0.89-0.97; P = 0.002), and APACHE II score ≥ 15 (OR: 1.73; 95% CI: 1.19-2.51; P = 0.004) were independently associated with mortality. The PSM analysis demonstrated that mortality (OR: 0.52, 95% CI: 0.29-0.92, P = 0.023) was less common in albumin-infused than non-albumin-infused hypoalbuminemia patients. In subgroup analyses, doses > 100 g within 1 week after admission for hypoalbuminemia patients with albumin infusions was associated with lower mortality than doses ≤ 100 g (OR: 0.51, 95% CI: 0.28-0.90, P = 0.020). CONCLUSIONS: Hypoalbuminemia in early-stage SAP is significantly related to poor prognosis. However, albumin infusions could significantly decrease mortality in hypoalbuminemia patients with SAP. Additionally, infusing sufficient albumin within a week after admission may decrease mortality in hypoalbuminemia patients.

Defined, low threshold for caesarean section and multidisciplinary team management improves fetal outcome from acute pancreatitis in pregnancy.

BACKGROUND: Acute pancreatitis in pregnancy (APIP) is associated with increased maternal and fetal mortality. OBJECTIVES: We sought to determine whether a low threshold for cesarean section (C-section) in severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) or Predict SAP improves maternal and fetal outcomes in patients with APIP. METHODS: We identified patients with APIP at a single institution from a prospective database and studied fetal and maternal health in APIP before (2005-2014) and after (2015-2019) introduction of multidisciplinary team management with a defined, lowered threshold for C-section. The primary end point was fetal mortality comprising abortion and perinatal death. Risk factors associated with fetal mortality were analyzed by univariable and multivariable logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: A total of 165 patients with APIP were eligible for analysis. There was a highly significant increase in patients undergoing C-section from 37 (30.8%) of 120 during 2005-2014 to 27 (60%) of 45 in 2015-2019 (P = 0.001), with a highly significant fall in fetal mortality from 37 (30.8%) of 120 to 3 (6.7%) of 45 between the same periods (P = 0.001), when maternal mortality fell from 6 to zero (P = 0.19). Maternal early systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) (odds ratio [OR] 6.98, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.53, 30.80, P = 0.01) and SAP (OR 3.64, 95%CI 1.25, 10.60, P = 0.02) were two independent risk factors associated with fetal mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Multidisciplinary collaboration and a defined, low threshold for C-section improve fetal outcomes in patients with APIP.

The severity and infection of acute pancreatitis may increase the risk of bleeding in patients undergoing EUS-guided drainage and endoscopic necrosectomy: a large retrospective cohort.

BACKGROUND: There has been great progress in the use of endoscopic ultrasound (EUS)-guided drainage in acute pancreatitis patients using a novel lumen-apposing metal stent (LAMS) in the last decade, but some patients experience bleeding. Our research analyzed the preprocedural risk factors for bleeding. METHODS: From July 13, 2016 to June 23, 2021, we retrospectively analyzed all patients who received endoscopic drainage by the LAMS in our hospital. Univariate and multivariate statistical analyses were used to identify the independent risk factors. We plotted ROC curves based on the independent risk factors. RESULTS: A total of 205 patients were analyzed and 5 patients were excluded. A total of 200 patients were included in our research. Thirty (15%) patients presented with bleeding. In the multivariate analysis, computed tomography severity index score (CTSI) score [odds ratio (OR), 2.66; 95% CI: 1.31-5.38; P = 0.007], positive blood cultures [odds ratio (OR), 5.35; 95% CI: 1.31-21.9; P = 0.02], and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score [odds ratio (OR), 1.14; 95% CI: 1. 01-1.29; P = 0.045] were associated with bleeding. The area under the ROC curve of the combined predictive indicator was 0.79. CONCLUSION: Bleeding in endoscopic drainage by the LAMS is significantly associated with the CTSI score, positive blood cultures, and APACHE II score. This result could help clinicians make more appropriate choices.

LOXL1-AS1 Aggravates Myocardial Ischemia/Reperfusion Injury Through the miR-761/PTEN Axis.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Myocardial ischemia and reperfusion injury (MIRI) has high morbidity and mortality worldwide. We aimed to explore the role of long noncoding RNA lysyl oxidase like 1 antisense RNA 1 (LOXL1-AS1) in cardiomyocyte pyroptosis. METHODS: Hypoxia/reoxygenation (H/R) injury was constructed in human cardiomyocyte (HCM). The level of LOXL1-AS1, miR-761, phosphatase and tensin homolog (PTEN) and pyroptosis-related proteins was monitored by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction or western blot. Flow cytometry examined the pyroptosis level. Lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), creatine kinase-MB and cardiac troponin I levels were detected by test kits. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay measured the release of inflammatory cytokines. Dual-luciferase assay validated the binding relationship among LOXL1-AS1, miR-761, and PTEN. Finally, ischemia/reperfusion (I/R) animal model was constructed. Hematoxylin and eosin staining assessed morphological changes of myocardial tissue. NOD-like receptor pyrin domain-containing protein 3 (NLRP3) and casepase-1 expression was determined by immunohistochemistry. RESULTS: After H/R treatment, LOXL1-AS1 and PTEN were highly expressed but miR-761 level was suppressed. LOXL1-AS1 inhibition or miR-761 overexpression increased cell viability, blocked the release of LDH and inflammatory cytokines (interleukin [IL]-1ß, IL-18), inhibited pyroptosis level, and downregulated pyroptosis-related proteins (ASC, cleaved caspase-1, gasdermin D-N, NLRP3, IL-1ß, and IL-18) levels in HCMs. LOXL1-AS1 sponged miR-761 to up-regulate PTEN. Knockdown of miR-761 reversed the effect of LOXL1-AS1 down regulation on H/R induced HCM pyroptosis. LOXL1-AS1 aggravated the MIRI by regulating miR-761/PTEN axis in vivo. CONCLUSIONS: LOXL1-AS1 targeted miR-761 to regulate PTEN expression, then enhance cardiomyocyte pyroptosis, providing a new alternative target for the treatment of MIRI.

Alcohol Consumption within 48 hours before Onset Is Associated with Adverse Clinical Outcomes in Hypertriglyceridemic Pancreatitis.

(1) Background: Some patients with hypertriglyceridemic pancreatitis (HTGP) drink occasionally or moderately, but do not meet the diagnostic criteria for alcoholic pancreatitis. This study aims to investigate whether occasional or moderate alcohol consumption affects the clinical outcomes of patients with HTGP. (2) Methods: This retrospective study included 373 patients with HTGP from January 2007 to December 2021. HTGP patients with occasional or moderate alcohol (OMA) consumption before onset were divided into the OMA group, and HTGP patients without alcohol (WA) consumption were divided into the WA group. The OMA group was further divided into two groups: the drinking within 48 h before onset (DW) group, and the without drinking within 48 h before onset (WDW) group. The clinical data of the two groups were compared and multivariable logistic regression was used to analyze independent risk factors for the primary outcomes. (3) Results: The proportion of men (95.7% vs. 67.6%, p < 0.001) and smoking history (61.7% vs. 15.1%, p < 0.001) in the OMA group were higher than those in the WA group. Occasional or moderate alcohol consumption was independently associated with a high incidence of SAP (adjusted odds ratio (AdjOR), 1.57; 95% CI, 1.02-2.41; p = 0.041), and necrotizing pancreatitis (AdjOR, 1.60; 95% CI, 1.04-2.48; p = 0.034). After dividing the OMA group into two subgroups, we found that drinking within 48 h before onset was independently associated with a high incidence of SAP (AdjOR, 3.09; 95% CI, 1.66-5.77; p < 0.001), and necrotizing pancreatitis (AdjOR, 2.71; 95% CI, 1.46-5.05; p = 0.002). (4) Conclusion: Occasional or moderate alcohol consumption is associated with poor clinical outcomes in patients with HTGP, particularly if they drank alcohol within 48 h before the onset of the disease.

Serum triglyceride levels are associated with recurrence in patients with acute hypertriglyceridemic pancreatitis.

Aim: To analyze the clinical profile of patients with acute hypertriglyceridemic pancreatitis (HTGP) and explore risk factors for recurrence. Methods: A retrospective observational study was conducted in patients who experienced an attack of HTGP for the first time. Patients were followed until the recurrence of acute pancreatitis (AP) or 1 year. The detailed clinical profile was compared between patients with or without recurrence. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was conducted to explore independent risk factors for recurrence. Results: A total of 108 HTGP patients were included in this study with 73.1% being male, and the median age being 37 (interquartile range, IQR, 30.3-44.8) years. Recurrence occurred in 70 patients (64.8%). Compared with the nonrecurrent group, serum triglyceride (TG) levels before discharge [4.1 (2.8,6.3) mmol/L vs. 2.9 (2.2,4.2) mmol/L; p = 0.002], at 1 month [3.7 (2.3,9.7) mmol/L vs. 2.0 (1.4,2.7) mmol/L; p = 0.001], at 6 months [6.1 (3.1,13.1) mmol/L vs. 2.5 (1.1,3.5) mmol/L; p = 0.003] and 12 months [9.6 (3.5,20.0) mmol/L vs. 2.7 (1.6,5.5) mmol/L; p = 0.001] after discharge were higher in the recurrent group. Poor control of TG levels (TG > 3.1 mmol/l) at the 1-month follow-up after discharge and a high Charlson's Comorbidity Index score (≥ 2 points) increased the risk of recurrence of HTGP. Conclusion: High TG levels during follow-up and Charlson's Comorbidity Index score were independently associated with recurrence in patients with HTGP.

Modulation effects of different treatments on periaqueductal gray resting state functional connectivity in knee osteoarthritis knee pain patients.

BACKGROUND: The analgesic effect of acupuncture is widely recognized, but the mechanical characteristics of acupuncture for pain relief, compared to non-steroidal anti-inflammatory (NSAIDs) and placebo medication, remain unknown. AIMS: To compare the modulation effects of acupuncture treatment with NSAIDs and placebo medication on descending pain modulation system (DPMS) in knee osteoarthritis (KOA) patients. METHODS: This study recruited 180 KOA patients with knee pain and 41 healthy controls (HCs). Individuals with KOA knee pain were divided randomly into groups of verum acupuncture (VA), sham acupuncture (SA), celecoxib (SC), placebo (PB), and waiting list (WT), with 36 patients in each group. VA and SA groups included ten sessions of puncturing acupoints or puncturing non-acupoints acupuncture treatment for two successive weeks. Celecoxib capsules were continuously given orally to patients in the SC group at a dosage of 200 mg daily for 2 weeks. In the PB group, patients received a placebo capsule once a day for 2 weeks at the same dosage as celecoxib capsules. In the WL group, patients did not receive any treatment. Patients underwent a resting-state BOLD-fMRI scan pre- and post-receiving the therapy, whereas HCs only underwent a baseline scan. Seed (ventrolateral periaqueductal gray, vlPAG, a key node in DPMS) based resting-state functional connectivity (rs-FC) was applied in the data analysis. RESULTS: All groups demonstrated improved knee pain scores relative to the initial state. There was no statistical difference between the VA and SA groups in all clinical outcomes, and vlPAG rs-FC alterations. KOA knee pain individuals reported higher vlPAG rs-FC in the bilateral thalamus than HCs. KOA knee pain patients in the acupuncture group (verum + sham, AG) exhibited increased vlPAG rs-FC with the right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) and the right angular, which is associated with knee pain improvement. In contrast with the SC and PB group, the AG exhibited significantly increased vlPAG rs-FC with the right DLPFC and angular. Contrary to the WT group, the AG showed greater vlPAG rs-FC with the right DLPFC and precuneus. CONCLUSIONS: Acupuncture treatment, celecoxib, and placebo medication have different modulation effects on vlPAG DPMS in KOA knee pain patients. Acupuncture could modulate vlPAG rs-FC with brain regions associated with cognitive control, attention, and reappraisal for knee pain relief in KOA patients, compared with celecoxib and placebo medication.

Predicting Persistent Acute Respiratory Failure in Acute Pancreatitis: The Accuracy of Two Lung Injury Indices.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Early and accurate identification of patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) at high risk of persistent acute respiratory failure (PARF) is crucial. We sought to determine the accuracy of simplified Lung Injury Prediction Score (sLIPS) and simplified Early Acute Lung Injury (sEALI) for predicting PARF in ward AP patients. METHODS: Consecutive AP patients in a training cohort from West China Hospital of Sichuan University (n = 912) and a validation cohort from The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University (n = 1033) were analyzed. PARF was defined as oxygen in arterial blood/fraction of inspired oxygen < 300 mmHg that lasts for > 48 h. The sLIPS was composed by shock (predisposing condition), alcohol abuse, obesity, high respiratory rate, low oxygen saturation, high oxygen requirement, hypoalbuminemia, and acidosis (risk modifiers). The sEALI was calculated from oxygen 2 to 6 L/min, oxygen > 6 L/min, and high respiratory rate. Both indices were calculated on admission. RESULTS: PARF developed in 16% (145/912) and 22% (228/1033) (22%) of the training and validation cohorts, respectively. In these patients, sLIPS and sEALI were significantly increased. sLIPS ≥ 2 predicted PARF in the training (AUROC 0.87, 95% CI 0.84-0.89) and validation (AUROC 0.81, 95% CI 0.78-0.83) cohorts. sLIPS was significantly more accurate than sEALI and current clinical scoring systems in both cohorts (all P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Using routinely available clinical data, the sLIPS can accurately predict PARF in ward AP patients and outperforms the sEALI and current existing clinical scoring systems.

Clinical characteristics and risk factors of organ failure and death in necrotizing pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND: Organ failure (OF) and death are considered the most significant adverse outcomes in necrotizing pancreatitis (NP). However, there are few NP-related studies describing the clinical traits of OF and aggravated outcomes. PURPOSE: An improved insight into the details of OF and death will be helpful to the management of NP. Thus, in our research, we addressed the risk factors of OF and death in NP patients. METHODS: We performed a study of 432 NP patients from May 2017 to December 2021. All patients with NP were followed up for 36 months. The primary end-points were risk factors of OF and death in NP patients. The risk factors were evaluated by logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: NP patients with OF or death patients were generally older, had a higher APACHE II score, longer hospital stay, longer ICU stay, as well as a higher incidence of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP), shock and pancreatic necrosis. Independent risk factors related to OF included BMI, APACHE II score and SAP (P < 0.05). Age, shock and APACHE II score (P < 0.05) were the most significant factors correlated with the risk of death in NP patients. Notably, increased mortality was linked to the number of failed organs. CONCLUSIONS: NP is a potentially fatal disease with a long hospital or ICU stay. Our study indicated that the incidence of OF and death in NP patients was 69.9% and 10.2%, respectively. BMI, SAP, APACHE II score, age and shock are potential risk factors of OF and death in NP patients. Clinicians should focus on these factors for early diagnosis and appropriate therapy.

Recurrence for patients with first episode of hypertriglyceridemia-induced acute pancreatitis: A prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Data on recurrent hypertriglyceridemia-induced acute pancreatitis (HTG-AP) are scarce. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the incidence and risk factors for recurrence of HTG-AP, and the effect of triglyceride (TG) lowering drugs post index attack on recurrence. METHODS: This study was a prospective cohort study of adult patients with first episode of HTG-AP from December 2019 to February 2021 who were followed until recurrence or death, or February 2022. The cumulative incidence function and Fine and Gray's competing-risk model were applied to the analyses. RESULTS: A total of 317 patients were enrolled, and the 12-month and 18-month cumulative recurrence incidences were 8% and 22%, respectively. The cumulative recurrence incidence was 2 times higher in patients whose serum TG levels post index attack were ≥5.65 mmol/L (subdistribution hazard ratio [SHR], 2.00; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.05-3.80; P = 0.034) compared to patients with TG <5.65 mmol/L. The recurrence rate was 3.3 times higher in patients whose glucose levels post index attack were ≥7.0 mmol/L (SHR, 3.31; 95% CI, 1.56-7.03; P = 0.002) than in patients with glucose <7.0 mmol/L). Compared to TG lowering drugs for less than 1 month post index attack, treatment for longer than 12 months decreased the incidence of recurrence by 75% (SHR, 0.25; 95% CI, 0.08-0.80; P = 0.019). CONCLUSIONS: The HTG-AP recurrence incidence is high and closely associated with high levels of TGs and glucose post index attack. Long-term TG lowering drugs treatment significantly decreases this recurrence.

Interleukin-6 is better than C-reactive protein for the prediction of infected pancreatic necrosis and mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis.

Introduction: This study aimed to identify whether interleukin-6 (IL-6) is better than C-reactive protein (CRP) for the prediction of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP), infected pancreatic necrosis (IPN), and mortality. Methods: Sixty-seven patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) who were hospitalized within 48 h of onset and received serum CRP and IL-6 tests from September 2018 to September 2019 were included. Spearman's correlation was performed to assess their associations with severity. The areas under the curve (AUCs) for the prediction of SAP, organ failure, pancreatic necrosis, IPN, and mortality were estimated using receiver operating characteristic curves. Result: Serum CRP and IL-6 levels were significantly positively correlated with the severity of AP (p < 0.05). The AUC for the prediction of SAP based on the CRP level was 0.78 (95% CI, 0.66-0.89) and that based on the IL-6 level was 0.69 (95% CI, 0.56-0.82). For the prediction of organ failure and pancreatic necrosis, CRP was more accurate than IL-6 (AUC 0.80 vs. 0.72 and 0.75 vs. 0.68, respectively). However, CRP was less accurate than IL-6 for predicting mortality and IPN (AUC 0.70 vs. 0.75 and 0.65 vs. 0.81, respectively). Systemic inflammatory response syndrome plus CRP was more accurate than systemic inflammatory response syndrome plus IL-6 (AUC 0.79 vs. 0.72) for the prediction of SAP. Conclusions: IL-6 was more accurate than CRP for predicting mortality and IPN in patients with AP.

Elevated hypertriglyceridemia and decreased gallstones in the etiological composition ratio of acute pancreatitis as affected by seasons and festivals: A two-center real-world study from China.

Objective: The purpose of this study was to observe the annual variation in the etiology of acute pancreatitis (AP) and its relationship with seasons and festivals. Methods: From 2011 to 2017, 5146 adult patients with AP were studied, including 4110 patients from the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University (South center) and 1036 patients from the First Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University (North center). We analyzed the overall annual variation in the etiology of AP and then compared the differences in etiology between the two regions, as well as the effects of seasons and festivals on the etiology of AP. Results: Gallstones, hypertriglyceridemia (HTG) and alcohol were the top three etiologies of AP. Gallstone AP showed a downward trend (P<0.001), and HTG-AP and alcohol AP showed an upward trend (both P<0.01). Among the etiologies of AP, gallstones and HTG were affected by seasons and festivals. The composition ratio of HTG-AP increased, while gallstone AP decreased in winter and in months with long holidays (all P<0.01). The composition ratio of gallstone AP in the south center was higher than that in the north center (59.5% vs. 49%), especially in summer (62.9% vs. 44.0%) and autumn (61.5% vs. 45.7%, all P<0.001). Conclusions: The composition ratio of HTG-AP increased while gallstone AP decreased in the past 7 years, and they were affected by seasons and festivals.

Prognostic Value of Arterial Lactate Metabolic Clearance Rate in Moderate and Severe Acute Pancreatitis.

Purpose: High lactate levels at hospital admission are significantly associated with poor prognosis in acute pancreatitis patients. Early high lactate clearance is a vital marker for predicting persistent organ failure and mortality in critical illness; however, its value in acute pancreatitis remains unclear. Method: Data were collected from patients who were diagnosed with moderately severe acute pancreatitis and severe acute pancreatitis from January 2017 to December 2020. Initial lactate (within 2 hours after admission) and repeat lactate at 24 hours after admission were measured to determine lactate clearance. Low clearance was defined as a reduction in repeat lactate of less than 30% compared to the first measurement. High clearance was defined as a repeat lactate decrease ≥30% of the first measurement or both first and second lactate levels <2 mmol/L. Baseline data, laboratory data, mortality rate, persistent organ failure rate, and other outcomes such as the incidence of septic pancreatic necrosis and sepsis and the length of hospital stay and intensive care unit (ICU) stay were compared in the low and high lactate clearance groups. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to assess the value of lactate clearance for predicting death. Result: Among 4425 acute pancreatitis patients, 3040 patients were diagnosed with moderate or severe acute pancreatitis, and 1028 patients had initial lactate measured. Finally, 390 patients who had initial and 24-hour repeat lactate data were included in the study. Patients who had elevated initial lactate had poor outcomes, and 51 patients in the initial elevated lactate group died. In the lactate normalization group analysis, 293 patients had 24-hour lactate normalization; compared with patients in the nonnormalization group, they had a lower rate of mortality (12.6% vs. 33%). In the lactate clearance group analysis, 70 (21.9%) patients had a low clearance after 24 hours; compared with patients in the high clearance group, they had a higher rate of developing persistent multiorgan failure (P = 0.045), and the incidence of death was higher (15% vs. 28.6%, P = 0.007). Multivariate logistic analysis showed that 24-hour lactate clearance (OR: 2.007; 95% CI:1.032-3.903, P = 0.04), elevated initial lactate (OR: 2.011; 95% CI:1.023-3.953, P = 0.043), blood urea nitrogen (OR: 2.316; 95% CI:1.061-5.056, P = 0.035), and white blood count (OR: 1.982; 95% CI:1.026-3.829, P = 0.042) were independent predictors of hospital mortality. Conclusion: The 24-hour clearance of lactate is a reliable marker to predict the outcome of moderate and severe acute pancreatitis, and low lactate clearance may indicate that the patient's condition will worsen, requiring aggressive treatments to improve patient outcomes.