Assessing "dangerous climate change": required reduction of carbon emissions to protect young people, future generations and nature.

We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of ∼500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of ∼1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2°C global warming, would spur "slow" feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4°C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.

Predation as the primary selective force in recurrent evolution of gigantism in Poecilozonites land snails in Quaternary Bermuda.

During the last half million years, pulses of gigantism in the anagenetic lineage of land snails of the subgenus Poecilozonites on Bermuda were correlated with glacial periods when lower sea level resulted in an island nearly an order of magnitude larger than at present. During those periods, the island was colonized by large vertebrate predators that created selection pressure for large size and rapid growth in the snails. Extreme reduction in land area from rising seas, along with changes in ecological conditions at the onset of interglacial episodes, marked extinction events for large predators, after which snails reverted to much smaller size. The giant snails were identical in morphology during the last two glacials when the predators included a large flightless rail Rallus recessus (marine isotope stages (MIS) 4-2) and a crane Grus latipes and a duck Anas pachysceles (MIS 6). In a preceding glacial period (MIS 10), when the fauna also included the tortoise Hesperotestudo bermudae, the snails were not only large, but the shells were much thicker, presumably to prevent crushing by tortoises. Evolution of Poecilozonites provides an outstanding example of dramatic morphological change in response to environmental pressures in the absence of cladogenesis.

Probable extirpation of a breeding colony of Short-tailed Albatross (Phoebastria albatrus) on Bermuda by Pleistocene sea-level rise.

Albatrosses (Diomedeidae) do not occur in the North Atlantic Ocean today except as vagrants, although five species were present in the early Pliocene. No fossil breeding sites of albatrosses were known previously. The timing of extinction of albatrosses in the North Atlantic was likewise unknown. Deposits that formed near present-day sea level along the southeastern shore of Bermuda contain remains of a former breeding colony and include intact eggshells and bones of embryos, juveniles, and adults of Short-tailed Albatross (Phoebastria albatrus), a critically endangered species now confined to a few islets in the northwestern Pacific Ocean. These deposits are correlated with the middle Pleistocene Lower Town Hill Formation, which at other sites have a radiometric age of 405,000 years ago. This equates with the marine isotope stage 11 interglacial, which culminated in a rise in sea-level to >+20 m. Bones of a juvenile Short-tailed Albatross were also found in beach deposits at +21.3 m from this same interglacial. We interpret the extirpation of albatrosses on Bermuda as probably resulting from lack of nesting sites protected from storm surges over the little emergent land that remained at the height of the marine isotope stage 11 sea level rise.