Climate change induced declines in fuel moisture may turn currently fire-free Pyrenean mountain forests into fire-prone ecosystems.

Fuel moisture limits the availability of fuel to wildfires in many forest areas worldwide, but the effects of climate change on moisture constraints remain largely unknown. Here we addressed how climate affects fuel moisture in pine stands from Catalonia, NE Spain, and the potential effects of increasing climate aridity on burned area in the Pyrenees, a mesic mountainous area where fire is currently rare. We first quantified variation in fuel moisture in six sites distributed across an altitudinal gradient where the long-term mean annual temperature and precipitation vary by 6-15 °C and 395-933 mm, respectively. We observed significant spatial variation in live (78-162%) and dead (10-15%) fuel moisture across sites. The pattern of variation was negatively linked (r = |0.6|-|0.9|) to increases in vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and in the Aridity Index. Using seasonal fire records over 2006-2020, we observed that summer burned area in the Mediterranean forests of Northeast Spain and Southern France was strongly dependent on VPD (r = 0.93), the major driver (and predictor) of dead fuel moisture content (DFMC) at our sites. Based on the difference between VPD thresholds associated with large wildfire seasons in the Mediterranean (3.6 kPa) and the maximum VPD observed in surrounding Pyrenean mountains (3.1 kPa), we quantified the "safety margin" for Pyrenean forests (difference between actual VPD and that associated with large wildfires) at 0.5 kPa. The effects of live fuel moisture content (LFMC) on burned area were not significant under current conditions, a situation that may change with projected increases in climate aridity. Overall, our results indicate that DFMC in currently fire-free areas in Europe, like the Pyrenees, with vast amounts of fuel in many forest stands, may reach critical dryness thresholds beyond the safety margin and experience large wildfires after only mild increases in VPD, although LFMC can modulate the response.

Effects of land use and seasonality on stream water quality in a small tropical catchment: The headwater of Córrego Água Limpa, São Paulo (Brazil).

Stream water quality is controlled by the interaction of natural and anthropogenic factors over a range of temporal and spatial scales. Among these anthropogenic factors, land cover changes at catchment scale can affect stream water quality. This work aims to evaluate the influence of land use and seasonality on stream water quality in a representative tropical headwater catchment named as Córrego Água Limpa (Sao Paulo, Brasil), which is highly influenced by intensive agricultural activities and urban areas. Two systematic sampling approach campaigns were implemented with six sampling points along the stream of the headwater catchment to evaluate water quality during the rainy and dry seasons. Three replicates were collected at each sampling point in 2011. Electrical conductivity, nitrates, nitrites, sodium superoxide, Chemical Oxygen Demand (DQO), colour, turbidity, suspended solids, soluble solids and total solids were measured. Water quality parameters differed among sampling points, being lower at the headwater sampling point (0m above sea level), and then progressively higher until the last downstream sampling point (2500m above sea level). For the dry season, the mean discharge was 39.5ls-1 (from April to September) whereas 113.0ls-1 were averaged during the rainy season (from October to March). In addition, significant temporal and spatial differences were observed (P<0.05) for the fourteen parameters during the rainy and dry period. The study enhance significant relationships among land use and water quality and its temporal effect, showing seasonal differences between the land use and water quality connection, highlighting the importance of multiple spatial and temporal scales for understanding the impacts of human activities on catchment ecosystem services.