A multi-center analysis of readmission after cardiac surgery: Experience of The Northern New England Cardiovascular Disease Study Group.

BACKGROUND: Readmissions after cardiac surgery are common and associated with increased morbidity, mortality and cost of care. Policymakers have targeted coronary artery bypass grafting to achieve value-oriented health care milestones. We explored the causes of readmission following cardiac surgery among a regional consortium of hospitals. METHODS: Using administrative data, we identified patients readmitted to the same institution within 30 days of cardiac surgery. We performed standardized review of readmitted patients' medical records to identify primary and secondary causes of readmission. We evaluated causes of readmission by procedure and tested for univariate associations between characteristics of readmitted patients and nonreadmitted patients in our clinical registry. RESULTS: Of 2218 cardiac surgery patients, 272 were readmitted to the index hospital within 30 days for a readmission rate of 12.3%. Median time to readmission was 9 days (interquartile range 4-16 days) and only 13% of patients were evaluated in-office before readmission. Readmitted patients were more likely to have had valve surgery (31.3% vs 22.7%) than patients not readmitted. Readmitted patients were also more likely to have preoperative creatinine more than or equal to 2 mg/dL (P = .015) or congestive heart failure (CHF) (P = .034), require multiple blood transfusions or sustained inotropic support (P < .001), and experience postoperative atrial fibrillation (P = .022) or renal insufficiency (P < .001). Infection (26%), pleural or pericardial effusion (19%), arrhythmia (16%), and CHF (11%) were the most common primary etiologies leading to readmission. CONCLUSIONS: Ensuring early follow-up for high-risk patient groups while improving early detection and management of the principal drivers of readmission represent promising targets for decreasing readmission rates.

Accepted but Unacceptable: Peripheral IV Catheter Failure.

Peripheral intravenous (IV) catheter insertion, the most common invasive hospital procedure performed worldwide, is associated with a variety of complications and an unacceptably high overall failure rate of 35% to 50% in even the best of hands. Catheter failure is costly to patients, caregivers, and the health care system. Although advances have been made, analysis of the mechanisms underlying the persistent high rate of peripheral IV failure reveals opportunities for improvement.

Accepted but Unacceptable: Peripheral IV Catheter Failure: 2019 Follow-up.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Still considered a "hot topic" 4 years later, JIN is pleased to reprint this classic article from May/June 2015, Issue 3. Since publication, "Accepted but Unacceptable: Peripheral IV Catheter Failure" has been downloaded nearly 400 times and cited dozens of times in other related research. Based on these data, we asked the lead author to update readers on the status of catheter failure and what has been improved since 2015.

Accepted but unacceptable: peripheral IV catheter failure.

Peripheral intravenous (IV) catheter insertion, the most common invasive hospital procedure performed worldwide, is associated with a variety of complications and an unacceptably high overall failure rate of 35% to 50% in even the best of hands. Catheter failure is costly to patients, caregivers, and the health care system. Although advances have been made, analysis of the mechanisms underlying the persistent high rate of peripheral IV failure reveals opportunities for improvement.

Impact of perioperative acute kidney injury as a severity index for thirty-day readmission after cardiac surgery.

BACKGROUND: Of patients undergoing cardiac surgery in the United States, 15% to 20% are re-hospitalized within 30 days. Current models to predict readmission have not evaluated the association between severity of postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) and 30-day readmissions. METHODS: We collected data from 2,209 consecutive patients who underwent either coronary artery bypass or valve surgery at 7 member hospitals of the Northern New England Cardiovascular Disease Study Group Cardiac Surgery Registry between July 2008 and December 2010. Administrative data at each hospital were searched to identify all patients readmitted to the index hospital within 30 days of discharge. We defined AKI stages by the AKI Network definition of 0.3 or 50% increase (stage 1), twofold increase (stage 2), and a threefold or 0.5 increase if the baseline serum creatinine was at least 4.0 (mg/dL) or new dialysis (stage 3). We evaluate the association between stages of AKI and 30-day readmission using multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: There were 260 patients readmitted within 30 days (12.1%). The median time to readmission was 9 (interquartile range, 4 to 16) days. Patients not developing AKI after cardiac surgery had a 30-day readmission rate of 9.3% compared with patients developing AKI stage 1 (16.1%), AKI stage 2 (21.8%), and AKI stage 3 (28.6%, p < 0.001). Adjusted odds ratios for AKI stage 1 (1.81; 1.35, 2.44), stage 2 (2.39; 1.38, 4.14), and stage 3 (3.47; 1.85 to 6.50). Models to predict readmission were significantly improved with the addition of AKI stage (c-statistic 0.65, p = 0.001) and net reclassification rate of 14.6% (95% confidence interval: 5.05% to 24.14%, p = 0.003). CONCLUSIONS: In addition to more traditional patient characteristics, the severity of postoperative AKI should be used when assessing a patient's risk for readmission.

Effect of preoperative pulmonary hypertension on outcomes in patients with severe aortic stenosis following surgical aortic valve replacement.

Pulmonary hypertension (PH) is prevalent in patients with aortic stenosis (AS); however, previous studies have demonstrated inconsistent results regarding the association of PH with adverse outcomes after aortic valve replacement (AVR). The goal of this study was to evaluate the effects of preoperative PH on outcomes after AVR. We performed a regional prospective cohort study using the Northern New England Cardiovascular Disease Study Group database to identify 1,116 consecutive patients from 2005 to 2010 who underwent AVR ± coronary artery bypass grafting for severe AS with a preoperative assessment of pulmonary pressures by right-sided cardiac catheterization. PH was defined as a mean pulmonary artery pressure of ≥25 mm Hg, with severity based on the pulmonary artery systolic pressure-mild, 35 to 44 mm Hg; moderate, 45 to 59 mm Hg; and severe, ≥60 mm Hg. We found that PH was present in 536 patients (48%). Postoperative acute kidney injury, low-output heart failure, and in-hospital mortality increased with worsening severity of PH. In multivariate logistic regression, severe PH was independently associated with postoperative acute kidney injury (adjusted odds ratio 4.1, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.7 to 10, p = 0.002) and in-hospital mortality (adjusted odds ratio 6.9, 95% CI 2.5 to 19.1, p <0.001). There was a significant association between PH and decreased 5-year survival (adjusted log-rank p value = 0.006), with severe PH being associated with the poorest survival (adjusted hazard ratio 2.4, 95% CI 1.3 to 4.2, p = 0.003). In conclusion, severe PH in patients with severe AS is associated with increased rates of in-hospital adverse events and decreased 5-year survival after AVR.

Preoperative white blood cell count and risk of 30-day readmission after cardiac surgery.

Approximately 1 in 5 patients undergoing cardiac surgery are readmitted within 30 days of discharge. Among the primary causes of readmission are infection and disease states susceptible to the inflammatory cascade, such as diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and gastrointestinal complications. Currently, it is not known if a patient's baseline inflammatory state measured by crude white blood cell (WBC) counts could predict 30-day readmission. We collected data from 2,176 consecutive patients who underwent cardiac surgery at seven hospitals. Patient readmission data was abstracted from each hospital. The independent association with preoperative WBC count was determined using logistic regression. There were 259 patients readmitted within 30 days, with a median time of readmission of 9 days (IQR 4-16). Patients with elevated WBC count at baseline (10,000-12,000 and >12,000 mm(3)) had higher 30-day readmission than those with lower levels of WBC count prior to surgery (15% and 18% compared to 10%-12%, P = 0.037). Adjusted odds ratios were 1.42 (0.86, 2.34) for WBC counts 10,000-12,000 and 1.81 (1.03, 3.17) for WBC count > 12,000. We conclude that WBC count measured prior to cardiac surgery as a measure of the patient's inflammatory state could aid clinicians and continuity of care management teams in identifying patients at heightened risk of 30-day readmission after discharge from cardiac surgery.

Impact of preoperative left ventricular ejection fraction on long-term survival after aortic valve replacement for aortic stenosis.

BACKGROUND: The survival of patients who undergo aortic valve replacement (AVR) for severe aortic stenosis with reduced preoperative ejection fractions (EFs) is not well described in the literature. METHODS AND RESULTS: Patients undergoing AVR for severe aortic stenosis were analyzed using the Northern New England Cardiovascular Disease Study Group surgical registry. Patients were stratified by preoperative EF (≥50%, 40%-49%, and <40%) and concomitant coronary artery bypass grafting. Crude and adjusted survival across strata of EF was estimated for patients up to 8 years beyond their index admission. A total of 5277 patients underwent AVR for severe aortic stenosis between 1992 and 2008. There were 727 (14%) patients with preoperative EF <40%. Preoperative EF had minimal effect on postoperative morbidity. There was no difference in 30-day mortality across EF strata among the isolated AVR cohort. Preserved EF conferred 30-day survival benefit among the AVR+coronary artery bypass grafting population (EF≥50%, 96%; EF<40%, 91%; P=0.003). Patients with preserved EF had significantly improved 6-month and 8-year survival compared with their reduced EF counterparts. CONCLUSIONS: Survival after AVR or AVR+coronary artery bypass grafting was most favorable among patients with preoperative preserved EF. However, patients with mild to moderately depressed EF experienced a substantial survival benefit compared with the natural history of medically treated patients. Furthermore, minor reductions of EF carried equivalent increased risk to those with more compromised function suggesting patients are best served when an AVR is performed before even minor reductions in myocardial function.

Limited blood transfusion does not impact survival in octogenarians undergoing cardiac operations.

BACKGROUND: We previously reported that transfusion of 1 to 2 units of red blood cells (RBCs) confers a 16% increased hazard of late death after cardiac surgical treatment. We explored whether a similar effect existed among octogenarians. METHODS: We enrolled 17,026 consecutive adult patients undergoing cardiac operations from 2001 to 2008 in northern New England. Patients receiving more than 2 units of RBCs or undergoing emergency operations were excluded. Early (to 6 months) and late (to 3 years, among those surviving longer than 6 months) survival was confirmed using the Social Security Death Index. We estimated the relationship between RBCs and survival, and any interaction by age (<80 years versus ≥80 years) or procedure. We calculated the adjusted hazard ratio (HR), and plotted adjusted survival curves. RESULTS: Patients receiving RBCs had more comorbidities irrespective of age. Patients 80 years of age or older underwent transfusion more often than patients younger than 80 years (51% versus 30%; p<0.001). There was no evidence of an interaction by age or procedure (p>0.05). Among patients younger than 80 years, RBCs significantly increased a patient's risk of early death [HR, 2.03; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.47, 2.80] but not late death 1.21 (95%CI, 0.88, 1.67). RBCs did not increase the risk of early [HR, 1.47; 95% CI, 0.84, 2.56] or late (HR, 0.92 95% CI, 0.50, 1.69) death in patients 80 years or older. CONCLUSIONS: Octogenarians receive RBCs more often than do younger patients. Although transfusion of 1 to 2 units of RBCs increases the risk of early death in patients younger than 80 years, this effect was not present among octogenarians. There was no significant effect of RBCs in late death in either age group.

Variability in surgeons' perioperative practices may influence the incidence of low-output failure after coronary artery bypass grafting surgery.

BACKGROUND: Postoperative low-output failure (LOF) is an important contributor to morbidity and mortality after coronary artery bypass grafting surgery. We sought to understand which pre- and intra-operative factors contribute to postoperative LOF and to what degree the surgeon may influence rates of LOF. METHODS AND RESULTS: We identified 11 838 patients undergoing nonemergent, isolated coronary artery bypass grafting surgery using cardiopulmonary bypass by 32 surgeons at 8 centers in northern New England from 2001 to 2009. Our cohort included patients with preoperative ejection fractions >40%. Patients with preoperative intraaortic balloon pumps were excluded. LOF was defined as the need for ≥2 inotropes at 48 hours, an intra- or post-operative intraaortic balloon pumps, or return to cardiopulmonary bypass (for hemodynamic reasons). Case volume varied across the 32 surgeons (limits, 80-766; median, 344). The overall rate of LOF was 4.3% (return to cardiopulmonary bypass, 2.6%; intraaortic balloon pumps, 1.0%; inotrope usage, 0.8%; combination, 1.0%). The predicted risk of LOF did not differ across surgeons, P=0.79, and the observed rates varied from 1.1% to 10.2%, P<0.001. Patients operated by low-rate surgeons had shorter clamp and bypass times, antegrade cardioplegia, longer maximum intervals between cardioplegia doses, lower cardioplegia volume per anastomosis or minute of ischemic time, and less hot-shot use. Patients operated on by higher LOF surgeons had higher rates of postoperative acute kidney injury. CONCLUSIONS: Rates of LOF significantly varied across surgeons and could not be explained solely by patient case mix, suggesting that variability in perioperative practices influences risk of LOF.

Does tight glucose control prevent myocardial injury and inflammation?

Hyperglycemia has been postulated to be cardiotoxic. We addressed the hypothesis that uncontrolled blood glucose induces myocardial damage in diabetic patients undergoing isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery receiving continuous insulin infusion in the immediate postoperative period. Our primary aim was to assess the degree of tight glycemic control for each patient and to link the degree of glycemic control to intermediate outcome of myocardial damage. We prospectively enrolled 199 consecutive patients with diabetes undergoing isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery from October 2003 through August 2005. Preoperative hemoglobin A1c and glucose measures were collected from the surgical admission. We measured biomarkers of myocardial damage (cardiac troponin I) and metabolic dysfunction (blood glucose and hemoglobin A1c) to identify a difference among patients under tight (90-100% of glucose measures < or = 150 mg/dL) or loose (<90%) glycemic control. All patients received continuous insulin infusion in the immediate postoperative period. We discovered 45.6% of the patients were in tight control. We found tight glycemic control resulted in no significant difference in troponin I release. Mean cardiac troponin I for tight and loose control was 4.9 and 8.5 (ng/mL), p value .3.We discovered patients varied with their degree of control, even with established protocols to maintain glucose levels within the normal range. We were unable to verify tight glycemic control compared to loose control was significantly associated with decreased cardiac troponin I release. Future studies are needed to evaluate the cardiotoxic mechanisms of hyperglycemia postulated in this study.

Effect of prior cardiac operations on survival after coronary artery bypass grafting.

BACKGROUND: We examined a recent regional experience to determine the effect of a prior cardiac operation on short-term and midterm outcomes after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). METHODS: We identified 20,703 patients who underwent nonemergent CABG at 8 centers in northern New England from 2000 to 2008, of whom 818 (3.8%) had undergone prior cardiac operations. Prior CABG using a minimal or full sternotomy was considered a prior sternotomy. Survival data out to 4 years were obtained from a link with the Social Security Administration Death Index. Hazard ratios were estimated using a Cox proportional hazards regression model, and adjusted survival curves were estimated using inverse probability weighting. In a separate analysis, 1,182 patients were matched 1:1 by a patient's propensity for having undergone prior CABG. RESULTS: Patients with prior sternotomies had a greater burden of comorbid diseases and increased acuity and had a greater likelihood of returning to the operating room for bleeding and low cardiac output failure. Prior sternotomy was associated with an increased risk of death out to 4 years for patients undergoing CABG, with an unmatched hazard ratio of 1.34 (95% confidence interval, 1.10 to 1.64) and a matched hazard ratio of 1.36 (95% confidence interval, 1.01 to 1.81). CONCLUSIONS: Analyses of our recent regional experience with nonemergent CABG showed that a prior cardiac operation was associated with a nearly twofold increased hazard of death at up to 4 years of follow-up.

Long-term outcomes of endoscopic vein harvesting after coronary artery bypass grafting.

BACKGROUND: Use of endoscopic saphenous vein harvesting has developed into a routine surgical approach at many cardiothoracic surgical centers. The association between this technique and long-term morbidity and mortality has recently been called into question. The present report describes the use of open versus endoscopic vein harvesting and risk of mortality and repeat revascularization in northern New England during a time period (2001 to 2004) in which both techniques were being performed. METHODS AND RESULTS: From 2001 to 2004, 8542 patients underwent isolated coronary artery bypass grafting procedures, 52.5% with endoscopic vein harvesting. Surgical discretion dictated the vein harvest approach. The main outcomes were death and repeat revascularization (percutaneous coronary intervention or coronary artery bypass grafting) within 4 years of the index admission. The use of endoscopic vein harvesting increased from 34% in 2001 to 75% in 2004. In general, patients undergoing endoscopic vein harvesting had greater disease burden. Endoscopic vein harvesting was associated with an increased adjusted risk of bleeding requiring a return to the operating room (2.4 versus 1.7; P=0.03) but a decreased risk of leg wound infections (0.2 versus 1.1; P<0.001). Use of endoscopic vein harvesting was associated with a significant reduction in long-term mortality (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.74; 95% confidence interval, 0.60 to 0.92) but a nonsignificant increased risk of repeat revascularization (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.29; 95% confidence interval, 0.96 to 1.74). Similar results were obtained in propensity-stratified analysis. CONCLUSIONS: During 2001 to 2004 in northern New England, the use of endoscopic vein harvesting was not associated with harm. There was a nonsignificant increase in repeat revascularization, and survival was not decreased.

Cardiac surgery-associated acute kidney injury: a comparison of two consensus criteria.

BACKGROUND: Cardiac surgery-related acute kidney injury has short- and long-term impact on patients' risk for further morbidity and mortality. Consensus statements have yielded criteria--such as the risk, injury, failure, loss, and end-stage kidney disease (RIFLE) criteria, and the Acute Kidney Injury Network (AKIN) criteria--to define the type and consequence of acute kidney injury. We sought to estimate the ability of both the RIFLE and and AKIN criteria to predict the risk of in-hospital mortality in the setting of cardiac surgery. METHODS: Data were collected on 25,086 patients undergoing cardiac surgery in Northern New England from January 2001 to December 2007, excluding 339 patients on preoperative dialysis. The AKIN and RIFLE criteria were used to classify patients postoperatively, using the last preoperative and the highest postoperative serum creatinine. We compared the diagnostic properties of both criteria, and calculated the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve. RESULTS: Acute kidney injury occurred in 30% of patients using the AKIN criteria and in 31% of patients using the RIFLE criteria. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve for in-hospital mortality estimated by AKIN and RIFLE criteria were 0.79 (95% confidence interval: 0.77 to 0.80) and 0.78 (95% confidence interval: 0.76 to 0.80), respectively (p = 0.369). CONCLUSIONS: The AKIN and RIFLE criteria are accurate early predictors of mortality. The high incidence of cardiac surgery postoperative acute kidney injury should prompt the use of either AKIN or RIFLE criteria to identify patients at risk and to stimulate institutional measures that target acute kidney injury as a quality improvement initiative.

Using biomarkers to improve the preoperative prediction of death in coronary artery bypass graft patients.

The current risk prediction models for mortality following coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery have been developed on patient and disease characteristics alone. Improvements to these models potentially may be made through the analysis of biomarkers of unmeasured risk. We hypothesize that preoperative biomarkers reflecting myocardial damage, inflammation, and metabolic dysfunction are associated with an increased risk of mortality following CABG surgery and the use of biomarkers associated with these injuries will improve the Northern New England (NNE) CABG mortality risk prediction model. We prospectively followed 1731 isolated CABG patients with preoperative blood collection at eight medical centers in Northern New England for a nested case-control study from 2003-2007. Preoperative blood samples were drawn at the center and then stored at a central facility. Frozen serum was analyzed at a central laboratory on an Elecsys 2010, at the same time for Cardiac Troponin T, N-Terminal pro-Brain Natriuretic Peptide, high sensitivity C-Reactive Protein, and blood glucose. We compared the strength of the prediction model for mortality using multivariable logistic regression, goodness of fit and tested the equality of the receiving operating characteristic curve (ROC) area. There were 33 cases (dead at discharge) and 66 randomly matched controls (alive at discharge).The ROC for the preoperative mortality model was improved from .83 (95% confidence interval: .74-.92) to .87 (95% confidence interval: .80-.94) with biomarkers (p-value for equality of ROC areas .09). The addition of biomarkers to the NNE preoperative risk prediction model did not significantly improve the prediction of mortality over patient and disease characteristics alone. The added measurement of multiple biomarkers outside of preoperative risk factors may be an unnecessary use of health care resources with little added benefit for predicting in-hospital mortality.

Long-term survival of the very elderly undergoing aortic valve surgery.

BACKGROUND: Increasing numbers of the very elderly are undergoing aortic valve procedures. We describe the short- and long-term survivorship for this cohort. METHODS AND RESULTS: We conducted a cohort study of 7584 consecutive patients undergoing open aortic valve surgery without (51.1%; AVR) or with (48.9%; AVR + CABG) concomitant coronary artery bypass graft surgery between November 10, 1987 through June 30, 2006. Patient records were linked to the Social Security Administration's Death Master File. Survivorship was stratified by age and concomitant CABG surgery. During 39 835 person-years of follow-up, there were 2877 deaths. Among AVR, there were 3304 patients <80 years of age, 419 patients 80 to 84 years, and 156 patients > or =85 years (24 patients >90 years). Among AVR+CABG patients, there were 2890 patients <80 years of age, 577 patients 80 to 84 years, and 238 patients > or =85 years (22 patients >90 years). Median survivorship for patients undergoing isolated AVR was 11.5 years (<80 years), 6.8 years (80 to 84 years), 6.2 years (> or =85 years); for patients undergoing AVR+CABG, median survivorship was 9.4 years (<80 years), 6.8 years (80 to 84 years), and 7.1 years (> or =85 years). Among both procedures, adjusted survivorship was significantly different across strata of age (P<0.001). These findings are similar to life expectancy of the general population from actuarial tables: 80 to 84 years (7 years) and > or =85 years (5 years). CONCLUSIONS: Survivorship among octogenarians is favorable, with more than half the patients surviving more than 6 years after their surgery. Concomitant CABG surgery does not diminish median survivorship among patients >80 years of age.

The association of perioperative red blood cell transfusions and decreased long-term survival after cardiac surgery.

BACKGROUND: Exposure to red blood cell (RBC) transfusions has been associated with increased mortality after cardiac surgery. We examined long-term survival for cardiac surgical patients who received one or two RBC units during index hospitalization. METHODS: Nine thousand seventy-nine consecutive patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft, valve, or coronary artery bypass graft/valve surgery at eight centers in northern New England during 2001-2004 were examined after exclusions. A probabilistic match between the regional registry and the Social Security Administration's Death Master File determined mortality through June 30, 2006. Cox Proportional Hazard and propensity methods were used to calculate adjusted hazard ratios. RESULTS: Thirty-six percent of patients (n = 3254) were exposed to one or two RBC units. Forty-three percent of RBCs were given intraoperatively, 56% in the postoperative period and 1% were preoperative. Patients transfused were more likely to be anemic, older, smaller, female and with more comorbid illness. Survival was significantly decreased for all patients exposed to 1 or 2 U of RBCs during hospitalization for cardiac surgery compared with those who received none (P < 0.001). After adjustment for patient and disease characteristics, patients exposed to 1 or 2 U of RBCs had a 16% higher long-term mortality risk (adjusted hazard ratios = 1.16, 95% CI: 1.01-1.34, P = 0.035). CONCLUSIONS: Exposure to 1 or 2 U of RBCs was associated with a 16% increased hazard of decreased survival after cardiac surgery.

Long-term survival after cardiac surgery is predicted by estimated glomerular filtration rate.

BACKGROUND: Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) before coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery is a key risk factor of in-hospital mortality. However, in patients with normal renal function before CABG, acute kidney injury develops after the procedure, making postoperative renal function assessment necessary for evaluation. Postoperative eGFR and its association with long-term survival have not been well studied. METHODS: We studied 13,593 consecutive CABG patients in northern New England from 2001 to 2006. Patients with preoperative dialysis were excluded. Data were linked to the Social Security Association Death Master File to assess long-term survival. Kaplan-Meier and log-rank techniques were used. Patients were stratified by established categories of postoperative eGFR (90 or greater, 60 to 89, 30 to 59, 15 to 29, and less than 15 mL x min(-1) x 1.73 m(-2)). RESULTS: Median follow-up was 2.8 years (mean, 2.7; range, 0 to 5.5). Patients with moderate to severe acute kidney injury (less than 60) after CABG had significantly worse survival than patients with little or no acute kidney injury (90 or greater). CONCLUSIONS: Patients having moderate to severe acute kidney injury after CABG surgery had worse 5-year survival compared with patients who had normal or near-normal renal function.

Multivariable prediction of renal insufficiency developing after cardiac surgery.

BACKGROUND: Renal insufficiency after coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery is associated with increased short-term and long-term mortality. We hypothesized that preoperative patient characteristics could be used to predict the patient-specific risk of developing postoperative renal insufficiency. METHODS AND RESULTS: Data were prospectively collected on 11,301 patients in northern New England who underwent isolated CABG surgery between 2001 and 2005. Based on National Kidney Foundation definitions, moderate renal insufficiency was defined as a GFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 and severe renal insufficiency as a GFR <30. Patients with at least moderate renal insufficiency at baseline were eliminated from the analysis, leaving 8363 patients who became our study cohort. A prediction model was developed to identify variables that best predicted the risk of developing severe renal insufficiency using multiple logistic regression, and the predictive ability of the model quantified using a bootstrap validated C-Index (Area Under ROC) and Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic. Three percent of the patients with normal renal function before CABG surgery developed severe renal insufficiency (229/8363). In a multivariable model the preoperative patient characteristics most strongly associated with postoperative severe renal insufficiency included: age, gender, white blood cell count >12,000, prior CABG, congestive heart failure, peripheral vascular disease, diabetes, hypertension, and preoperative intraaortic balloon pump. The predictive model was significant with chi2 150.8, probability value <0.0001. The model discriminated well, ROC 0.72 (95%CI: 0.68 to 0.75). The model was well calibrated according to the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. CONCLUSIONS: We developed a robust prediction rule to assist clinicians in identifying patients with normal, or near normal, preoperative renal function who are at high risk of developing severe renal insufficiency. Physicians may be able to take steps to limit this adverse outcome and its associated increase in morbidity and mortality.

Perioperative increases in serum creatinine are predictive of increased 90-day mortality after coronary artery bypass graft surgery.

BACKGROUND: Impaired renal function after coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery is a key risk factor for in-hospital mortality. However, perioperative increases in serum creatinine and the association with mortality has not been well-studied. We assessed the hypothesis that perioperative increases in creatinine are associated with increased 90-day mortality. METHODS AND RESULTS: We studied 1391 patients in northern New England undergoing CABG in 2001 and evaluated preoperative and postoperative creatinine. Patients with preoperative dialysis were excluded. Data were linked to the National Death Index to assess 90-day survival. Kaplan-Meier and log-rank techniques were used. Patients were stratified by percent increase in creatinine from baseline: <25%, 25% to 49%, 50% to 99%, > or =100%. We assessed 90-day survival and calculated adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for creatinine groups, adjusting for age and sex. Patients with the largest creatinine increases (50% to 99% or > or =100%) had significantly higher 90-day mortality compared with patients with a smaller increase (<50%; P<0.001). Adjusted HR and 95% CI confirmed patients in the higher 2 groups had an increased risk of mortality compared with the <25% (referent); however, the 25% to 49% group was not different from the referent: 1.80 (95% CI: 0.73 to 4.44), 6.57 (95% CI, 3.03 to 14.27), and 22.10 (95% CI, 11.25 to 43.39). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with large creatinine increases (> or = 50%) after CABG surgery have a higher 90-day mortality compared with patients with small increases. Efforts to identify patients with impaired renal function and to preserve renal function before cardiac surgery may yield benefits for patients in the future.