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Background: Hospital admission due to breathlessness carries a significant burden to patients and healthcare systems, particularly impacting people in low-income countries. Prompt appropriate treatment is vital to improve outcomes, but this relies on accurate diagnostic tests which are of limited availability in resource-constrained settings. We will provide an accurate description of acute breathlessness presentations in a multicentre prospective cohort study in Malawi, a low resource setting in Southern Africa, and explore approaches to strengthen diagnostic capacity. Objectives: Primary objective: Delineate between causes of breathlessness among adults admitted to hospital in Malawi and report disease prevalence. Secondary objectives : Determine patient outcomes, including mortality and hospital readmission 90 days after admission; determine the diagnostic accuracy of biomarkers to differentiate between heart failure and respiratory infections (such as pneumonia) including brain natriuretic peptides, procalcitonin and C-reactive protein. Methods: This is a prospective longitudinal cohort study of adults (≥18 years) admitted to hospital with breathlessness across two hospitals: 1) Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Blantyre, Malawi; 2) Chiradzulu District Hospital, Chiradzulu, Malawi. Patients will be consecutively recruited within 24 hours of emergency presentation and followed-up until 90 days from hospital admission. We will conduct enhanced diagnostic tests with robust quality assurance and quality control to determine estimates of disease pathology. Diagnostic case definitions were selected following a systematic literature search. Discussion: This study will provide detailed epidemiological description of adult hospital admissions due to breathlessness in low-income settings, which is currently poorly understood. We will delineate between causes using established case definitions and conduct nested diagnostic evaluation. The results have the potential to facilitate development of interventions targeted to strengthen diagnostic capacity, enable prompt and appropriate treatment, and ultimately improve both patient care and outcomes.
BACKGROUND: People admitted to hospital with symptoms of breathlessness are often severely ill and need quick, accurate assessment to facilitate timely initiation of appropriate treatments. In low resource settings, such as Malawi, limited access to diagnostic equipment impedes patient assessment. Failure to identify and treat the underlying diagnosis may lead to preventable death. AIMS: This cohort study aims to delineate between common, treatable causes of breathlessness among adult patients admitted to hospital in Malawi and measure survival. We will also evaluate the performance of blood markers to diagnose and differentiate between conditions. The results will help us develop context-appropriate diagnostic and treatment algorithms based on resources available in the health system Methods in brief: We will recruit adult patients who present to hospital with breathlessness in a central national referral hospital (Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Blantyre), and a district hospital (Chiradzulu District Hospital, Chiradzulu). We will conduct enhanced diagnostic tests to determine causes of breathlessness against internationally accepted diagnostic guidelines. Patients will be followed up throughout their hospital admission and after discharge, until 90 days. INTERPRETATION: This study aligns with World Health Assembly resolutions on 'Strengthening diagnostics capacity' and on 'Integrated emergency, critical and operative care for universal health coverage and protection from health emergencies'. The results of this study will have the potential to facilitate development of interventions targeted to strengthen diagnostic capacity, enable prompt and appropriate treatment, and ultimately improve care and outcomes for acutely unwell patients.
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BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted tuberculosis (TB) health services, including treatment support and access to drugs, as patients were not able to access health facilities. While the effect of this disruption on treatment outcomes has been studied in isolated treatment centres, cities and provinces, the impact of the pandemic on TB treatment outcomes at a country and regional level has not been evaluated. METHODS: We used treatment outcomes for new and relapse TB cases reported to the World Health Organization (WHO) from 49 high TB, TB/HIV and drug-resistant TB burden countries from 2012 to 2019. We developed multinomial logistic regression models for trends in TB treatment success, failure, death and loss to follow up. We predicted TB treatment outcomes for 2020 and 2021, comparing these to observations, by computing ratios between observed and predicted probabilities. We aggregated these risk ratios (RR) for six WHO-defined regions using random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: Across 49 countries and four TB treatment outcomes, 17 (out of 196) country-outcome pairs in 2020 and 21 in 2021 had evidence of systematic differences between observed and predicted TB treatment outcome probabilities. Regionally, only four (out of 24) region-outcome pairs had evidence of systematic differences in 2020 and four in 2021, where the European region accounted for four of these in total. Globally, there was evidence of systematic differences in treatment failure in both 2020 (RR: 1.14, 95%CI: 1.01-1.28, p = 0.0381) and 2021 (RR: 1.36, 95%CI: 1.03-1.78, p = 0.0277), deaths in 2020 (RR: 1.08, 95%CI: 1.03-1.13, p = 0.0010) and losses to follow up in 2020 (RR: 0.91, 95%CI: 0.86-0.97, p = 0.0059). CONCLUSIONS: While for some countries and regions there were significant differences between observed and predicted treatment outcomes probabilities, there was insufficient evidence globally to identify systematic differences between observed and expected TB treatment outcome probabilities because of COVID-19-associated disruptions in general. However, larger numbers of treatment failures and deaths on treatment than expected were observed globally, suggesting a need for further investigation.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Tuberculosis , Humans , COVID-19/epidemiology , Tuberculosis/drug therapy , Tuberculosis/epidemiology , Treatment Outcome , Antitubercular Agents/therapeutic use , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2 , Global HealthABSTRACT
Salmonella Typhi is a human-restricted pathogen that is transmitted by the faecal-oral route and causative organism of typhoid fever. Using health facility data from 2016 to 2020, this study focuses on modelling the spatial variation in typhoid risk in Ndirande township in Blantyre. To pursue this objective, we developed a marked inhomogeneous Poisson process model that allows us to incorporate both individual-level and environmental risk factors. The results from our analysis indicate that typhoid cases are spatially clustered, with the incidence decreasing by 54% for a unit increase in the water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) score. Typhoid intensity was also higher in children aged below 18 years than in adults. However, our results did not show evidence of a strong temporal variation in typhoid incidence. We also discuss the inferential benefits of using point pattern models to characterise the spatial variation in typhoid risk and outline possible extensions of the proposed modelling framework.
Subject(s)
Salmonella typhi , Typhoid Fever , Humans , Typhoid Fever/epidemiology , Typhoid Fever/microbiology , Salmonella typhi/isolation & purification , Adolescent , Child , Malawi/epidemiology , Adult , Child, Preschool , Male , Female , Young Adult , Incidence , Infant , Risk Factors , Sanitation , Urban PopulationABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: In Malawi, the national pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) demonstrated less herd immunity than the USA, likely due to higher natural pneumococcal carriage rates. We assessed PCV13 efficacy against experimental pneumococcal carriage in healthy Malawian adults. We explored how natural carriage (pneumococcal carriage of any other serotype apart from 6B) influenced experimental carriage rates and vaccine efficacy. METHODS: Healthy adults aged 18-40 were randomly assigned PCV13 (n=98) or saline (n=106), followed by intranasal SPN 6B inoculation at 20,000 (n=40), 80,000 (n=74), or 160,000 (n=90) CFU/100µl, 28 days post-vaccination. We evaluated natural and experimental pneumococcal carriage before and after vaccination on days 2, 7, and 14 post-inoculation using culture and multiplex qPCR targeting lytA/cpsA genes and compared carriage rates by vaccination status. RESULTS: Of 204 participants, 19.6% (40) exhibited experimental carriage, detected by culture and 25.5% (52) by qPCR. Vaccinated individuals had lower experimental carriage rates (10.2%, n=10/98) compared to the placebo group (28.3%, n=30/106). This difference in vaccine efficacy was more pronounced in participants without natural carriage (PCV13=8% n=6/75 vs. placebo=25.9%, n=21/81) compared to those with natural carriage (PCV13=14.8%, n=4/27 vs. placebo=26.5%, n=9/34). Using a log-binomial model, vaccine effectiveness (VE) was 62%, whether assessed by culture or qPCR. Natural carriers had a lower VE of 52% compared to participants with no natural carriage (VE=69%). CONCLUSION: We have shown that PCV13 VE estimate (62%) is robust whether carriage is assessed by culture or qPCR. PCV13 had lower VE in natural carriers compared to those without natural carriage at the inoculation visit.
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Tuberculosis (TB) transmission and prevalence are dynamic over time, and heterogeneous within populations. Public health programmes therefore require up-to-date, accurate epidemiological data to appropriately allocate resources, target interventions, and track progress towards End TB goals. Current methods of TB surveillance often rely on case notifications, which are biased by access to healthcare, and TB disease prevalence surveys, which are highly resource-intensive, requiring many tens of thousands of people to be tested to identify high-risk groups or capture trends. Surveys of "latent TB infection", or immunoreactivity to Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb), using tests such as interferon-gamma release assays (IGRAs) could provide a way to identify TB transmission hotspots, supplementing information from disease notifications, and with greater spatial and temporal resolution than is possible to achieve in disease prevalence surveys. This cross-sectional survey will investigate the prevalence of Mtb immunoreactivity amongst young children, adolescents and adults in Blantyre, Malawi, a high HIV-prevalence city in southern Africa. Through this study we will estimate the annual risk of TB infection (ARTI) in Blantyre and explore individual- and area-level risk factors for infection, as well as investigating geospatial heterogeneity of Mtb infection (and its determinants), and comparing these to the distribution of TB disease case-notifications. We will also evaluate novel diagnostics for Mtb infection (QIAreach QFT) and sampling methodologies (convenience sampling in healthcare settings and community sampling based on satellite imagery), which may increase the feasibility of measuring Mtb infection at large scale. The overall aim is to provide high-resolution epidemiological data and provide new insights into methodologies which may be used by TB programmes globally.
Subject(s)
Mycobacterium tuberculosis , Tuberculosis , Malawi/epidemiology , Humans , Cross-Sectional Studies , Mycobacterium tuberculosis/immunology , Adult , Adolescent , Tuberculosis/epidemiology , Tuberculosis/diagnosis , Prevalence , Child , Female , Male , Interferon-gamma Release Tests/methods , Young Adult , Risk FactorsABSTRACT
Providing emergency care in low resource settings relies on delivery by lower cadres of health workers (LCHW). We describe the development, implementation and mixed methods evaluation of a mobile health (mHealth) triage algorithm based on the WHO Emergency, Triage, Assessment, and Treatment (ETAT) for primary-level care. We conducted an observational study design of implementation research. Key stakeholders were engaged throughout implementation. Clinicians and LCHW at eight primary health centres in Blantyre district were trained to use an mHealth algorithm for triage. An mHealth patient surveillance system monitored patients from presentation through referral to tertiary and final outcome. A total of 209,174 children were recorded by ETAT between April 2017 and September 2018, and 155,931 had both recorded mHealth and clinician triage outcome data. Concordance between mHealth triage by lower cadres of HCW and clinician assessment was 81·6% (95% CI [81·4, 81·8]) over all outcomes (kappa: 0·535 (95% CI [0·530, 0·539]). Concordance for mHealth emergency triage was 0.31 with kappa 0.42. The most common mHealth recorded emergency sign was breathing difficulty (74·1% 95% CI [70·1, 77·9]) and priority sign was raised temperature (76·2% (95% CI [75·9, 76·6]). A total of 1,644 referrals out of 3,004 (54·7%) successfully reached the tertiary site. Both providers and carers expressed high levels of satisfaction with the mHealth ETAT pathway. An mHealth triage algorithm can be used by LCHWs with moderate concordance with clinician triage. Implementation of ETAT through an mHealth algorithm documented successful referrals from primary to tertiary, but half of referred patients did not reach the tertiary site. Potential harms of such systems, such as cases requiring referral being missed during triage, require further evaluation. The ASPIRE mHealth primary ETAT approach can be used to prioritise acute illness and support future resource planning within both district and national health system.
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BACKGROUND: Ciprofloxacin is the first-line drug for treating typhoid fever in many countries in Africa with a high disease burden, but the emergence of non-susceptibility poses a challenge to public health programmes. Through enhanced surveillance as part of vaccine evaluation, we investigated the occurrence and potential determinants of ciprofloxacin non-susceptibility in Blantyre, Malawi. METHODS: We conducted systematic surveillance of typhoid fever cases and antibiotic prescription in two health centres in Blantyre, Malawi, between Oct 1, 2016, and Oct 31, 2019, as part of the STRATAA and TyVAC studies. In addition, blood cultures were taken from eligible patients presenting at Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Blantyre, as part of routine diagnosis. Inclusion criteria were measured or reported fever, or clinical suspicion of sepsis. Microbiologically, we identified Salmonella enterica serotype Typhi (S Typhi) isolates with a ciprofloxacin non-susceptible phenotype from blood cultures, and used whole-genome sequencing to identify drug-resistance mutations and phylogenetic relationships. We constructed generalised linear regression models to investigate associations between the number of ciprofloxacin prescriptions given per month to study participants and the proportion of S Typhi isolates with quinolone resistance-determining region (QRDR) mutations in the following month. FINDINGS: From 46 989 blood cultures from Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, 502 S Typhi isolates were obtained, 30 (6%) of which had either decreased ciprofloxacin susceptibility, or ciprofloxacin resistance. From 11 295 blood cultures from STRATAA and TyVAC studies, 241 microbiologically confirmed cases of typhoid fever were identified, and 198 isolates from 195 participants sequenced (mean age 12·8 years [SD 10·2], 53% female, 47% male). Between Oct 1, 2016, and Aug 31, 2019, of 177 typhoid fever cases confirmed by whole-genome sequencing, four (2%) were caused by S Typhi with QRDR mutations, compared with six (33%) of 18 cases between Sept 1 and Oct 31, 2019. This increase was associated with a preceding spike in ciprofloxacin prescriptions. Every additional prescription of ciprofloxacin given to study participants in the preceding month was associated with a 4·2% increase (95% CI 1·8-7·0) in the relative risk of isolating S Typhi with a QRDR mutation (p=0·0008). Phylogenetic analysis showed that S Typhi isolates with QRDR mutations from September and October, 2019, belonged to two distinct subclades encoding two different QRDR mutations, and were closely related (4-10 single-nucleotide polymorphisms) to susceptible S Typhi endemic to Blantyre. INTERPRETATION: We postulate a causal relationship between increased ciprofloxacin prescriptions and an increase in fluoroquinolone non-susceptibility in S Typhi. Decreasing ciprofloxacin use by improving typhoid diagnostics, and reducing typhoid fever cases through the use of an efficacious vaccine, could help to limit the emergence of resistance. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and National Institute for Health and Care Research (UK).
Subject(s)
Typhoid Fever , Typhoid-Paratyphoid Vaccines , Humans , Male , Female , Child , Salmonella typhi/genetics , Ciprofloxacin/pharmacology , Ciprofloxacin/therapeutic use , Typhoid Fever/drug therapy , Typhoid Fever/epidemiology , Malawi/epidemiology , PhylogenyABSTRACT
Recent evidence shows rapidly changing tuberculosis (TB) epidemiology in Southern and Eastern Africa, with need for subdistrict prevalence estimates to guide targeted interventions. We conducted a pulmonary TB prevalence survey to estimate current TB burden in Blantyre city, Malawi. From May 2019 to March 2020, 115 households in middle/high-density residential Blantyre, were randomly-selected from each of 72 clusters. Consenting eligible participants (household residents ≥ 18 years) were interviewed, including for cough (any duration), and offered HIV testing and chest X-ray; participants with cough and/or abnormal X-ray provided two sputum samples for microscopy, Xpert MTB/Rif and mycobacterial culture. TB disease prevalence and risk factors for prevalent TB were calculated using complete-case analysis, multiple imputation, and inverse probability weighting. Of 20,899 eligible adults, 15,897 (76%) were interviewed, 13,490/15,897 (85%) had X-ray, and 1,120/1,394 (80%) sputum-eligible participants produced at least one specimen, giving 15,318 complete cases (5,895, 38% men). 29/15,318 had bacteriologically-confirmed TB (189 per 100,000 complete-case (cc) / 150 per 100,000 with inverse weighting (iw)). Men had higher burden (cc: 305 [95% CI:144-645] per 100,000) than women (cc: 117 [95% CI:65-211] per 100,000): cc adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 2.70 (1.26-5.78). Other significant risk factors for prevalent TB on complete-case analysis were working age (25-49 years) and previous TB treatment, but not HIV status. Multivariable analysis of imputed data was limited by small numbers, but previous TB and age group 25-49 years remained significantly associated with higher TB prevalence. Pulmonary TB prevalence for Blantyre was considerably lower than the 1,014 per 100,000 for urban Malawi in the 2013-14 national survey, at 150-189 per 100,000 adults, but some groups, notably men, remain disproportionately affected. TB case-finding is still needed for TB elimination in Blantyre, and similar urban centres, but should focus on reaching the highest risk groups, such as older men.
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BACKGROUND: Cryptosporidium is a gastrointestinal pathogen that presents a serious opportunistic infection in immunocompromised individuals including those living with human immunodeficiency syndrome. The CRYPTOFAZ trial, previously published, was conducted in Malawi to evaluate the efficacy of clofazimine in response to an unmet need for drugs to treat cryptosporidiosis in HIV populations. A combination of rapid diagnostic tests, ELISA, qPCR, and conventional sequencing were employed to detect Cryptosporidium in 586 individuals during pre-screening and monitor oocyst shedding and identify enteric co-pathogens in 22 enrolled/randomized participants during the in-patient period and follow-up visits. METHODOLOGY: Oocyst shedding as measured by qPCR was used to determine primary trial outcomes, however pathogen was detected even at trial days 41-55 in individuals randomized to either clofazimine or placebo arms of the study. Therefore, in this work we re-examine the trial outcomes and conclusions in light of data from the other diagnostics, particularly ELISA. ELISA data was normalized between experiments prior to comparison to qPCR. The amount of all identified enteric pathogens was examined to determine if co-pathogens other than Cryptosporidium were major causative agents to a participant's diarrhea. CONCLUSION: ELISA had higher sample-to-sample variability and proved to be equally or less sensitive than qPCR in detecting Cryptosporidium positive samples. Compared to qPCR, ELISA had equal or greater specificity in detecting Cryptosporidium negative samples. Sequencing identified several Cryptosporidium species including viatorum which has never been identified in Malawi and Southern Africa. In addition to Cryptosporidium, enterotoxigenic E. coli was also identified as a pathogen in diarrheagenic amounts in 4 out of 22 participants.
Subject(s)
Cryptosporidiosis , Cryptosporidium , Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli , Humans , Animals , Cryptosporidiosis/diagnosis , Cryptosporidiosis/drug therapy , Cryptosporidium/genetics , Clofazimine , Polymerase Chain Reaction , Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay , OocystsABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: The effect of childhood pneumococcal conjugate vaccine implementation in Malawi is threatened by absence of herd effect. There is persistent vaccine-type pneumococcal carriage in both vaccinated children and the wider community. We aimed to use a human infection study to measure 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) efficacy against pneumococcal carriage. METHODS: We did a double-blind, parallel-arm, randomised controlled trial investigating the efficacy of PCV13 or placebo against experimental pneumococcal carriage of Streptococcus pneumoniae serotype 6B (strain BHN418) among healthy adults (aged 18-40 years) from Blantyre, Malawi. We randomly assigned participants (1:1) to receive PCV13 or placebo. PCV13 and placebo doses were prepared by an unmasked pharmacist to maintain research team and participant masking with identification only by a randomisation identification number and barcode. 4 weeks after receiving either PCV13 or placebo, participants were challenged with 20â000 colony forming units (CFUs) per naris, 80â000 CFUs per naris, or 160â000 CFUs per naris by intranasal inoculation. The primary endpoint was experimental pneumococcal carriage, established by culture of nasal wash at 2, 7, and 14 days. Vaccine efficacy was estimated per protocol by means of a log-binomial model adjusting for inoculation dose. The trial is registered with the Pan African Clinical Trials Registry, PACTR202008503507113, and is now closed. FINDINGS: Recruitment commenced on April 27, 2021 and the final visit was completed on Sept 12, 2022. 204 participants completed the study protocol (98 PCV13, 106 placebo). There were lower carriage rates in the vaccine group at all three inoculation doses (0 of 21 vs two [11%] of 19 at 20â000 CFUs per naris; six [18%] of 33 vs 12 [29%] of 41 at 80â000 CFUs per naris, and four [9%] of 44 vs 16 [35%] of 46 at 160â000 CFUs per naris). The overall carriage rate was lower in the vaccine group compared with the placebo group (ten [10%] of 98 vs 30 [28%] of 106; Fisher's p value=0·0013) and the vaccine efficacy against carriage was estimated at 62·4% (95% CI 27·7-80·4). There were no severe adverse events related to vaccination or inoculation of pneumococci. INTERPRETATION: This is, to our knowledge, the first human challenge study to test the efficacy of a pneumococcal vaccine against pneumococcal carriage in Africa, which can now be used to establish vaccine-induced correlates of protection and compare alternative strategies to prevent pneumococcal carriage. This powerful tool could lead to new means to enhance reduction in pneumococcal carriage after vaccination. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust.
Subject(s)
Pneumococcal Vaccines , Streptococcus pneumoniae , Adult , Child , Humans , Malawi/epidemiology , Vaccines, Conjugate , Serogroup , Pneumococcal Vaccines/therapeutic useABSTRACT
We used national facility-level data from all government hospitals in Malawi to examine the effects of the second and third COVID-19 waves on maternal and neonatal outcomes and access to care during September 6, 2020-October 31, 2021. The COVID-19 pandemic affected maternal and neonatal health not only through direct infections but also through disruption of the health system, which could have wider indirect effects on critical maternal and neonatal outcomes. In an interrupted time series analysis, we noted a cumulative 15.4% relative increase (63 more deaths) in maternal deaths than anticipated across the 2 COVID-19 waves. We observed a 41% decrease in postnatal care visits at the onset of the second COVID-19 wave and 0.2% by the third wave, cumulative to 36,809 fewer visits than anticipated. Our findings demonstrate the need for strengthening health systems, particularly in resource-constrained settings, to prepare for future pandemic threats.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Pregnancy , Infant, Newborn , Female , Humans , Malawi/epidemiology , COVID-19/epidemiology , Pandemics , Postnatal Care , FamilyABSTRACT
Despite decades of genetic studies on late-onset Alzheimer's disease, the underlying molecular mechanisms remain unclear. To better comprehend its complex etiology, we use an integrative approach to build robust predictive (causal) network models using two large human multi-omics datasets. We delineate bulk-tissue gene expression into single cell-type gene expression and integrate clinical and pathologic traits, single nucleotide variation, and deconvoluted gene expression for the construction of cell type-specific predictive network models. Here, we focus on neuron-specific network models and prioritize 19 predicted key drivers modulating Alzheimer's pathology, which we then validate by knockdown in human induced pluripotent stem cell-derived neurons. We find that neuronal knockdown of 10 of the 19 targets significantly modulates levels of amyloid-beta and/or phosphorylated tau peptides, most notably JMJD6. We also confirm our network structure by RNA sequencing in the neurons following knockdown of each of the 10 targets, which additionally predicts that they are upstream regulators of REST and VGF. Our work thus identifies robust neuronal key drivers of the Alzheimer's-associated network state which may represent therapeutic targets with relevance to both amyloid and tau pathology in Alzheimer's disease.
Subject(s)
Alzheimer Disease , Induced Pluripotent Stem Cells , Humans , Alzheimer Disease/metabolism , tau Proteins/genetics , tau Proteins/metabolism , Induced Pluripotent Stem Cells/metabolism , Amyloid beta-Peptides/genetics , Amyloid beta-Peptides/metabolism , Neurons/metabolism , Jumonji Domain-Containing Histone Demethylases/metabolismABSTRACT
Background: The B.1.1.529 (Omicron) variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has resulted in the fourth COVID-19 pandemic wave across the southern African region, including Malawi. The seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and their association with epidemiological trends of hospitalisations and deaths are needed to aid locally relevant public health policy decisions. Methods: We conducted a population-based serosurvey from December 27, 2021 to January 17, 2022, in 7 districts across Malawi to determine the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Serum samples were tested for antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 receptor binding domain using WANTAI SARS-CoV-2 Receptor Binding Domain total antibody commercial enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). We also evaluated COVID-19 epidemiologic trends in Malawi, including cases, hospitalisations and deaths from April 1, 2021 through April 30, 2022, collected using the routine national COVID-19 reporting system. A multivariable logistic regression model was developed to investigate the factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity. Findings: Serum samples were analysed from 4619 participants (57% female; 60% aged 18-50 years), of whom 878/3794 (23%) of vaccine eligible adults had received a single dose of any COVID-19 vaccine. The overall assay-adjusted seroprevalence was 83.7% (95% confidence interval (CI), 79.3%-93.4%). Seroprevalence was lowest among children <13 years of age (66%) and highest among adults 18-50 years of age (82%). Seroprevalence was higher among vaccinated compared to unvaccinated participants (1 dose, 94% vs. 77%, adjusted odds ratio 4.89 [95% CI, 3.43-7.22]; 2 doses, 97% vs. 77%, aOR 6.62 [95% CI, 4.14-11.3]). Urban residents were more likely to be seropositive than those from rural settings (91% vs. 78%, aOR 2.76 [95% CI, 2.16-3.55]). There was at least a two-fold reduction in the proportion of hospitalisations and deaths among the reported cases in the fourth wave compared to the third wave (hospitalisations, 10.7% (95% CI, 10.2-11.3) vs. 4.86% (95% CI, 4.52-5.23), p < 0.0001; deaths, 3.48% (95% CI, 3.18-3.81) vs. 1.15% (95% CI, 1.00-1.34), p < 0.0001). Interpretation: We report reduction in proportion of hospitalisations and deaths from SARS-CoV-2 infections during the Omicron variant dominated wave in Malawi, in the context of high SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and low COVID-19 vaccination coverage. These findings suggest that COVID-19 vaccination policy in high seroprevalence settings may need to be amended from mass campaigns to targeted vaccination of reported at-risk populations. Funding: Supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (INV-039481).
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In sub-Saharan Africa, simple biomarkers of liver fibrosis are needed to scale-up hepatitis B treatment. We conducted an individual participant data meta-analysis of 3,548 chronic hepatitis B patients living in eight sub-Saharan African countries to assess the World Health Organization-recommended aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index and two other fibrosis biomarkers using a Bayesian bivariate model. Transient elastography was used as a reference test with liver stiffness measurement thresholds at 7.9 and 12.2kPa indicating significant fibrosis and cirrhosis, respectively. At the World Health Organization-recommended cirrhosis threshold (>2.0), aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index had sensitivity (95% credible interval) of only 16.5% (12.5-20.5). We identified an optimised aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index rule-in threshold (>0.65) for liver stiffness measurement >12.2kPa with sensitivity and specificity of 56.2% (50.5-62.2) and 90.0% (89.0-91.0), and an optimised rule-out threshold (<0.36) with sensitivity and specificity of 80.6% (76.1-85.1) and 64.3% (62.8-65.8). Here we show that the World Health Organization-recommended aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index threshold is inappropriately high in sub-Saharan Africa; improved rule-in and rule-out thresholds can optimise treatment recommendations in this setting.
Subject(s)
Hepatitis B, Chronic , Humans , Hepatitis B, Chronic/diagnosis , Bayes Theorem , ROC Curve , Platelet Count , Aspartate Aminotransferases , Fibrosis , Liver Cirrhosis/diagnosis , Africa , BiomarkersABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Typhoid conjugate vaccines are being introduced in low-income and middle-income countries to prevent typhoid illness in children. Vaccine effectiveness studies assess vaccine performance after introduction. The test-negative design is a commonly used method to estimate vaccine effectiveness that has not been applied to typhoid vaccines because of concerns over blood culture insensitivity. The overall aim of the study was to evaluate the appropriateness of using a test-negative design to assess typhoid Vi polysaccharide-tetanus toxoid conjugate vaccine (Vi-TT) effectiveness using a gold standard randomised controlled trial database. METHODS: Using blood culture data from a randomised controlled trial of Vi-TT in Malawi, we simulated a test-negative design to derive vaccine effectiveness estimates using three different approaches and compared these to randomised trial efficacy results. In the randomised trial, 27â882 children aged 9 months to 12 years were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive a single dose of Vi-TT or meningococcal capsular group A conjugate vaccine between Feb 21 and Sept 27, 2018, and were followed up for blood culture-confirmed typhoid fever until Sept 30, 2021. FINDINGS: For all three test-negative design approaches, vaccine effectiveness estimates (test-negative design A, 80·3% [95% CI 66·2 to 88·5] vs test-negative design B, 80·5% [66·5 to 88·6] vs test-negative design C, 80·4% [66·9 to 88·4]) were almost identical to the randomised trial results (80·4% [95% CI 66·4 to 88·5]). Receipt of Vi-TT did not affect the risk of non-typhoid fever (vaccine efficacy against non-typhoid fever -0·4% [95% CI -4·9 to 3·9] vs -1% [-5·6 to 3·3] vs -2·5% [-6·4 to 1·3] for test-negative design A, test-negative design B, and test-negative design C, respectively). INTERPRETATION: This study validates the test-negative design core assumption for typhoid vaccine effectiveness estimation and shows the accuracy and precision of the estimates compared with the randomised controlled trial. These results show that the test-negative design is suitable for assessing typhoid conjugate vaccine effectiveness in post-introduction studies using blood culture surveillance. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Subject(s)
Typhoid Fever , Typhoid-Paratyphoid Vaccines , Child , Humans , Vaccines, Conjugate , Vaccine Efficacy , Malawi , Salmonella typhi , Typhoid Fever/prevention & control , Typhoid Fever/epidemiologyABSTRACT
Background: Non-typhoidal Salmonella (NTS) are a major cause of bloodstream infections amongst children in sub-Saharan Africa. A clear understanding of the seroepidemiology and correlates of protection for invasive NTS (iNTS) in relation to key risk factors (malaria, anaemia, malnutrition) in children in Africa is needed to inform strategies for disease control including vaccine implementation. Methodology: The SAiNTS study is a prospective community cohort study with paired serology samples from 2500 Malawian children 0-5 years at baseline and three months to measure age-stratified acquisition of lipopolysaccharide (LPS) O-antigen antibody (IgG) and serum bactericidal activity to the main serovars causing iNTS ( Salmonella Typhimurium and S. Enteritidis). Children are selected from mapped and censused randomly selected households in Chikwawa, Malawi; an area with substantial malaria burden. The sampling framework is set within a malaria vaccination (RTS,S/ AS01) phase 4 cluster randomized trial, known as the Epidemiology Study of Malaria Transmission Intensity (EPI-MAL), allowing exploration of the impact of malaria vaccination on acquisition of immunity to NTS. Risk factor data for invasive disease will be collected using rapid diagnostic tests for malaria and anaemia, anthropometry for malnutrition, and a validated questionnaire for indicators of socioeconomic status, water and sanitation. All data will be recorded through electronic case report forms using the REDCap and the Open Data Kit (ODK) platforms. Stool sample analysis includes NTS culture and pan-Salmonella polymerase chain reaction to assess enteric exposure and biomarkers of environmental enteric dysfunction. Cases with iNTS disease will be followed up for comparison with community controls. Conclusions: The final cohort of 2500 children will allow investigation into the impact of risk factors for iNTS on the acquisition of immunity in children 0-5 years in an endemic setting, including comparisons to partner seroepidemiology studies in three other sub-Saharan African sites (1000 children per site). The data generated will be key to informing iNTS disease control measures including targeted risk factor interventions and vaccine implementation through investigation of correlates of protection and identifying windows of immune susceptibility in at-risk populations.
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a common and severe complication of community acquired infection, but data on impact in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are lacking. We determined prevalence, risk factors and outcomes of infection associated kidney disease in adults in Malawi. DESIGN: A prospective cohort study of adults admitted to hospital with infection, from February 2021 to June 2021, collecting demographic, clinical, laboratory and ultrasonography data. SETTING: Adults admitted to a regional hospital in Southern Region, Malawi. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcomes were prevalence of kidney disease and mortality by Cox proportional hazard model. AKI was defined according to Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) guidelines. Secondary outcomes were risk factors for AKI identified by logistic regression and prevalence of chronic kidney disease at 3 months. RESULTS: We recruited 101 patients presenting to hospital with infection. Median age was 38 years (IQR: 29-48 years), 88 had known HIV status of which 53 (60%) were living with HIV, and of these 42 (79%) were receiving antiretroviral therapy. AKI was present in 33/101 at baseline, of which 18/33 (55%) cases were severe (KDIGO stage 3). At 3 months, 28/94 (30%) participants had died, while 7/61 (11%) of survivors had chronic kidney disease. AKI was associated with older age (age: 60 years vs 40 years, OR: 3.88, 95% CI 1.82 to 16.64), and HIV positivity (OR: 4.08, 95% CI 1.28 to 15.67). Living with HIV was independently associated with death (HR: 3.97, 95% CI 1.07 to 14.69). CONCLUSIONS: Kidney disease is common among hospitalised adults with infection in Malawi, with significant kidney impairment identified at 3 months. Our study highlights the difficulty in diagnosing acute and chronic kidney disease, and the need for more accurate methods than creatinine based estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) equations for populations in Africa. Patients with kidney impairment identified in hospital should be prioritised for follow-up.
Subject(s)
Acute Kidney Injury , Renal Insufficiency, Chronic , Adult , Humans , Middle Aged , Prevalence , Malawi/epidemiology , Prospective Studies , Risk Factors , Hospitals , Acute Kidney Injury/epidemiology , Acute Kidney Injury/etiology , Renal Insufficiency, Chronic/complications , Renal Insufficiency, Chronic/epidemiologyABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis remains a major public health priority and is the second leading cause of mortality from infectious disease worldwide. TB case detection rates are unacceptably low for men, the elderly and children. Disruptions in TB services due to the COVID-19 pandemic may have exacerbated these and other inequalities. METHODS: We modelled trends in age- and sex- disaggregated case notifications for all forms of new and relapse TB reported to the World Health Organization for 45 high TB, TB/HIV and MDR-TB burden countries from 2013 to 2019. We compared trend predicted notifications to observed notifications in 2020 to estimate the number of people with TB likely to have missed or delayed diagnosis. We estimated the risk ratio (RR) of missed or delayed TB diagnosis for children (aged < 15 years) or the elderly (aged ≥ 65 years) compared to adults (aged 15-64 years) and women compared to men (both aged ≥ 15 years) using a random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: An estimated 195,449 children (95% confidence interval, CI: 189,673-201,562, 37.8% of an expected 517,168), 1,126,133 adults (CI: 1,107,146-1,145,704, 21.8% of an expected 5,170,592) and 235,402 elderly (CI: 228,108-243,202, 28.5% of an expected 826,563) had a missed or delayed TB diagnosis in 2020. This included 511,546 women (CI: 499,623-523,869, 22.7%, of an expected 2,250,097) and 863,916 men (CI: 847,591-880,515, 23.0% of an expected 3,763,363). There was no evidence globally that the risk of having TB diagnosis missed or delayed was different for children and adults (RR: 1.09, CI: 0.41-2.91), the elderly and adults (RR: 1.40, CI: 0.62-3.16) or men and women (RR: 0.59, CI: 0.25-1.42). However, there was evidence of disparities in risk by age and/or sex in some WHO regions and in most countries. CONCLUSIONS: There is no evidence at an aggregate global level of any difference by age or sex in the risk of disruption to TB diagnosis as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, in many countries, disruptions in TB services have been greater for some groups than others. It is important to recognise these context-specific inequalities when prioritising key populations for catch-up campaigns.