Improving care pathways for children with severe illness through implementation of the ASPIRE mHealth primary ETAT package in Malawi.

Providing emergency care in low resource settings relies on delivery by lower cadres of health workers (LCHW). We describe the development, implementation and mixed methods evaluation of a mobile health (mHealth) triage algorithm based on the WHO Emergency, Triage, Assessment, and Treatment (ETAT) for primary-level care. We conducted an observational study design of implementation research. Key stakeholders were engaged throughout implementation. Clinicians and LCHW at eight primary health centres in Blantyre district were trained to use an mHealth algorithm for triage. An mHealth patient surveillance system monitored patients from presentation through referral to tertiary and final outcome. A total of 209,174 children were recorded by ETAT between April 2017 and September 2018, and 155,931 had both recorded mHealth and clinician triage outcome data. Concordance between mHealth triage by lower cadres of HCW and clinician assessment was 81·6% (95% CI [81·4, 81·8]) over all outcomes (kappa: 0·535 (95% CI [0·530, 0·539]). Concordance for mHealth emergency triage was 0.31 with kappa 0.42. The most common mHealth recorded emergency sign was breathing difficulty (74·1% 95% CI [70·1, 77·9]) and priority sign was raised temperature (76·2% (95% CI [75·9, 76·6]). A total of 1,644 referrals out of 3,004 (54·7%) successfully reached the tertiary site. Both providers and carers expressed high levels of satisfaction with the mHealth ETAT pathway. An mHealth triage algorithm can be used by LCHWs with moderate concordance with clinician triage. Implementation of ETAT through an mHealth algorithm documented successful referrals from primary to tertiary, but half of referred patients did not reach the tertiary site. Potential harms of such systems, such as cases requiring referral being missed during triage, require further evaluation. The ASPIRE mHealth primary ETAT approach can be used to prioritise acute illness and support future resource planning within both district and national health system.

Evaluating the relationship between ciprofloxacin prescription and non-susceptibility in Salmonella Typhi in Blantyre, Malawi: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: Ciprofloxacin is the first-line drug for treating typhoid fever in many countries in Africa with a high disease burden, but the emergence of non-susceptibility poses a challenge to public health programmes. Through enhanced surveillance as part of vaccine evaluation, we investigated the occurrence and potential determinants of ciprofloxacin non-susceptibility in Blantyre, Malawi. METHODS: We conducted systematic surveillance of typhoid fever cases and antibiotic prescription in two health centres in Blantyre, Malawi, between Oct 1, 2016, and Oct 31, 2019, as part of the STRATAA and TyVAC studies. In addition, blood cultures were taken from eligible patients presenting at Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Blantyre, as part of routine diagnosis. Inclusion criteria were measured or reported fever, or clinical suspicion of sepsis. Microbiologically, we identified Salmonella enterica serotype Typhi (S Typhi) isolates with a ciprofloxacin non-susceptible phenotype from blood cultures, and used whole-genome sequencing to identify drug-resistance mutations and phylogenetic relationships. We constructed generalised linear regression models to investigate associations between the number of ciprofloxacin prescriptions given per month to study participants and the proportion of S Typhi isolates with quinolone resistance-determining region (QRDR) mutations in the following month. FINDINGS: From 46 989 blood cultures from Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, 502 S Typhi isolates were obtained, 30 (6%) of which had either decreased ciprofloxacin susceptibility, or ciprofloxacin resistance. From 11 295 blood cultures from STRATAA and TyVAC studies, 241 microbiologically confirmed cases of typhoid fever were identified, and 198 isolates from 195 participants sequenced (mean age 12·8 years [SD 10·2], 53% female, 47% male). Between Oct 1, 2016, and Aug 31, 2019, of 177 typhoid fever cases confirmed by whole-genome sequencing, four (2%) were caused by S Typhi with QRDR mutations, compared with six (33%) of 18 cases between Sept 1 and Oct 31, 2019. This increase was associated with a preceding spike in ciprofloxacin prescriptions. Every additional prescription of ciprofloxacin given to study participants in the preceding month was associated with a 4·2% increase (95% CI 1·8-7·0) in the relative risk of isolating S Typhi with a QRDR mutation (p=0·0008). Phylogenetic analysis showed that S Typhi isolates with QRDR mutations from September and October, 2019, belonged to two distinct subclades encoding two different QRDR mutations, and were closely related (4-10 single-nucleotide polymorphisms) to susceptible S Typhi endemic to Blantyre. INTERPRETATION: We postulate a causal relationship between increased ciprofloxacin prescriptions and an increase in fluoroquinolone non-susceptibility in S Typhi. Decreasing ciprofloxacin use by improving typhoid diagnostics, and reducing typhoid fever cases through the use of an efficacious vaccine, could help to limit the emergence of resistance. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and National Institute for Health and Care Research (UK).

Prevalence of bacteriologically-confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis in urban Blantyre, Malawi 2019-20: Substantial decline compared to 2013-14 national survey.

Recent evidence shows rapidly changing tuberculosis (TB) epidemiology in Southern and Eastern Africa, with need for subdistrict prevalence estimates to guide targeted interventions. We conducted a pulmonary TB prevalence survey to estimate current TB burden in Blantyre city, Malawi. From May 2019 to March 2020, 115 households in middle/high-density residential Blantyre, were randomly-selected from each of 72 clusters. Consenting eligible participants (household residents ≥ 18 years) were interviewed, including for cough (any duration), and offered HIV testing and chest X-ray; participants with cough and/or abnormal X-ray provided two sputum samples for microscopy, Xpert MTB/Rif and mycobacterial culture. TB disease prevalence and risk factors for prevalent TB were calculated using complete-case analysis, multiple imputation, and inverse probability weighting. Of 20,899 eligible adults, 15,897 (76%) were interviewed, 13,490/15,897 (85%) had X-ray, and 1,120/1,394 (80%) sputum-eligible participants produced at least one specimen, giving 15,318 complete cases (5,895, 38% men). 29/15,318 had bacteriologically-confirmed TB (189 per 100,000 complete-case (cc) / 150 per 100,000 with inverse weighting (iw)). Men had higher burden (cc: 305 [95% CI:144-645] per 100,000) than women (cc: 117 [95% CI:65-211] per 100,000): cc adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 2.70 (1.26-5.78). Other significant risk factors for prevalent TB on complete-case analysis were working age (25-49 years) and previous TB treatment, but not HIV status. Multivariable analysis of imputed data was limited by small numbers, but previous TB and age group 25-49 years remained significantly associated with higher TB prevalence. Pulmonary TB prevalence for Blantyre was considerably lower than the 1,014 per 100,000 for urban Malawi in the 2013-14 national survey, at 150-189 per 100,000 adults, but some groups, notably men, remain disproportionately affected. TB case-finding is still needed for TB elimination in Blantyre, and similar urban centres, but should focus on reaching the highest risk groups, such as older men.

Examination of ELISA against PCR for assessing treatment efficacy against Cryptosporidium in a clinical trial context.

BACKGROUND: Cryptosporidium is a gastrointestinal pathogen that presents a serious opportunistic infection in immunocompromised individuals including those living with human immunodeficiency syndrome. The CRYPTOFAZ trial, previously published, was conducted in Malawi to evaluate the efficacy of clofazimine in response to an unmet need for drugs to treat cryptosporidiosis in HIV populations. A combination of rapid diagnostic tests, ELISA, qPCR, and conventional sequencing were employed to detect Cryptosporidium in 586 individuals during pre-screening and monitor oocyst shedding and identify enteric co-pathogens in 22 enrolled/randomized participants during the in-patient period and follow-up visits. METHODOLOGY: Oocyst shedding as measured by qPCR was used to determine primary trial outcomes, however pathogen was detected even at trial days 41-55 in individuals randomized to either clofazimine or placebo arms of the study. Therefore, in this work we re-examine the trial outcomes and conclusions in light of data from the other diagnostics, particularly ELISA. ELISA data was normalized between experiments prior to comparison to qPCR. The amount of all identified enteric pathogens was examined to determine if co-pathogens other than Cryptosporidium were major causative agents to a participant's diarrhea. CONCLUSION: ELISA had higher sample-to-sample variability and proved to be equally or less sensitive than qPCR in detecting Cryptosporidium positive samples. Compared to qPCR, ELISA had equal or greater specificity in detecting Cryptosporidium negative samples. Sequencing identified several Cryptosporidium species including viatorum which has never been identified in Malawi and Southern Africa. In addition to Cryptosporidium, enterotoxigenic E. coli was also identified as a pathogen in diarrheagenic amounts in 4 out of 22 participants.

Effect of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine on experimental carriage of Streptococcus pneumoniae serotype 6B in Blantyre, Malawi: a randomised controlled trial and controlled human infection study.

BACKGROUND: The effect of childhood pneumococcal conjugate vaccine implementation in Malawi is threatened by absence of herd effect. There is persistent vaccine-type pneumococcal carriage in both vaccinated children and the wider community. We aimed to use a human infection study to measure 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) efficacy against pneumococcal carriage. METHODS: We did a double-blind, parallel-arm, randomised controlled trial investigating the efficacy of PCV13 or placebo against experimental pneumococcal carriage of Streptococcus pneumoniae serotype 6B (strain BHN418) among healthy adults (aged 18-40 years) from Blantyre, Malawi. We randomly assigned participants (1:1) to receive PCV13 or placebo. PCV13 and placebo doses were prepared by an unmasked pharmacist to maintain research team and participant masking with identification only by a randomisation identification number and barcode. 4 weeks after receiving either PCV13 or placebo, participants were challenged with 20 000 colony forming units (CFUs) per naris, 80 000 CFUs per naris, or 160 000 CFUs per naris by intranasal inoculation. The primary endpoint was experimental pneumococcal carriage, established by culture of nasal wash at 2, 7, and 14 days. Vaccine efficacy was estimated per protocol by means of a log-binomial model adjusting for inoculation dose. The trial is registered with the Pan African Clinical Trials Registry, PACTR202008503507113, and is now closed. FINDINGS: Recruitment commenced on April 27, 2021 and the final visit was completed on Sept 12, 2022. 204 participants completed the study protocol (98 PCV13, 106 placebo). There were lower carriage rates in the vaccine group at all three inoculation doses (0 of 21 vs two [11%] of 19 at 20 000 CFUs per naris; six [18%] of 33 vs 12 [29%] of 41 at 80 000 CFUs per naris, and four [9%] of 44 vs 16 [35%] of 46 at 160 000 CFUs per naris). The overall carriage rate was lower in the vaccine group compared with the placebo group (ten [10%] of 98 vs 30 [28%] of 106; Fisher's p value=0·0013) and the vaccine efficacy against carriage was estimated at 62·4% (95% CI 27·7-80·4). There were no severe adverse events related to vaccination or inoculation of pneumococci. INTERPRETATION: This is, to our knowledge, the first human challenge study to test the efficacy of a pneumococcal vaccine against pneumococcal carriage in Africa, which can now be used to establish vaccine-induced correlates of protection and compare alternative strategies to prevent pneumococcal carriage. This powerful tool could lead to new means to enhance reduction in pneumococcal carriage after vaccination. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust.

Effects of COVID-19 on Maternal and Neonatal Outcomes and Access to Antenatal and Postnatal Care, Malawi.

We used national facility-level data from all government hospitals in Malawi to examine the effects of the second and third COVID-19 waves on maternal and neonatal outcomes and access to care during September 6, 2020-October 31, 2021. The COVID-19 pandemic affected maternal and neonatal health not only through direct infections but also through disruption of the health system, which could have wider indirect effects on critical maternal and neonatal outcomes. In an interrupted time series analysis, we noted a cumulative 15.4% relative increase (63 more deaths) in maternal deaths than anticipated across the 2 COVID-19 waves. We observed a 41% decrease in postnatal care visits at the onset of the second COVID-19 wave and 0.2% by the third wave, cumulative to 36,809 fewer visits than anticipated. Our findings demonstrate the need for strengthening health systems, particularly in resource-constrained settings, to prepare for future pandemic threats.

Predictive network analysis identifies JMJD6 and other potential key drivers in Alzheimer's disease.

Despite decades of genetic studies on late-onset Alzheimer's disease, the underlying molecular mechanisms remain unclear. To better comprehend its complex etiology, we use an integrative approach to build robust predictive (causal) network models using two large human multi-omics datasets. We delineate bulk-tissue gene expression into single cell-type gene expression and integrate clinical and pathologic traits, single nucleotide variation, and deconvoluted gene expression for the construction of cell type-specific predictive network models. Here, we focus on neuron-specific network models and prioritize 19 predicted key drivers modulating Alzheimer's pathology, which we then validate by knockdown in human induced pluripotent stem cell-derived neurons. We find that neuronal knockdown of 10 of the 19 targets significantly modulates levels of amyloid-beta and/or phosphorylated tau peptides, most notably JMJD6. We also confirm our network structure by RNA sequencing in the neurons following knockdown of each of the 10 targets, which additionally predicts that they are upstream regulators of REST and VGF. Our work thus identifies robust neuronal key drivers of the Alzheimer's-associated network state which may represent therapeutic targets with relevance to both amyloid and tau pathology in Alzheimer's disease.

Omicron B.1.1.529 variant infections associated with severe disease are uncommon in a COVID-19 under-vaccinated, high SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence population in Malawi.

Background: The B.1.1.529 (Omicron) variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has resulted in the fourth COVID-19 pandemic wave across the southern African region, including Malawi. The seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and their association with epidemiological trends of hospitalisations and deaths are needed to aid locally relevant public health policy decisions. Methods: We conducted a population-based serosurvey from December 27, 2021 to January 17, 2022, in 7 districts across Malawi to determine the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Serum samples were tested for antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 receptor binding domain using WANTAI SARS-CoV-2 Receptor Binding Domain total antibody commercial enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). We also evaluated COVID-19 epidemiologic trends in Malawi, including cases, hospitalisations and deaths from April 1, 2021 through April 30, 2022, collected using the routine national COVID-19 reporting system. A multivariable logistic regression model was developed to investigate the factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity. Findings: Serum samples were analysed from 4619 participants (57% female; 60% aged 18-50 years), of whom 878/3794 (23%) of vaccine eligible adults had received a single dose of any COVID-19 vaccine. The overall assay-adjusted seroprevalence was 83.7% (95% confidence interval (CI), 79.3%-93.4%). Seroprevalence was lowest among children <13 years of age (66%) and highest among adults 18-50 years of age (82%). Seroprevalence was higher among vaccinated compared to unvaccinated participants (1 dose, 94% vs. 77%, adjusted odds ratio 4.89 [95% CI, 3.43-7.22]; 2 doses, 97% vs. 77%, aOR 6.62 [95% CI, 4.14-11.3]). Urban residents were more likely to be seropositive than those from rural settings (91% vs. 78%, aOR 2.76 [95% CI, 2.16-3.55]). There was at least a two-fold reduction in the proportion of hospitalisations and deaths among the reported cases in the fourth wave compared to the third wave (hospitalisations, 10.7% (95% CI, 10.2-11.3) vs. 4.86% (95% CI, 4.52-5.23), p < 0.0001; deaths, 3.48% (95% CI, 3.18-3.81) vs. 1.15% (95% CI, 1.00-1.34), p < 0.0001). Interpretation: We report reduction in proportion of hospitalisations and deaths from SARS-CoV-2 infections during the Omicron variant dominated wave in Malawi, in the context of high SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and low COVID-19 vaccination coverage. These findings suggest that COVID-19 vaccination policy in high seroprevalence settings may need to be amended from mass campaigns to targeted vaccination of reported at-risk populations. Funding: Supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (INV-039481).

Systematic review and individual-patient-data meta-analysis of non-invasive fibrosis markers for chronic hepatitis B in Africa.

In sub-Saharan Africa, simple biomarkers of liver fibrosis are needed to scale-up hepatitis B treatment. We conducted an individual participant data meta-analysis of 3,548 chronic hepatitis B patients living in eight sub-Saharan African countries to assess the World Health Organization-recommended aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index and two other fibrosis biomarkers using a Bayesian bivariate model. Transient elastography was used as a reference test with liver stiffness measurement thresholds at 7.9 and 12.2kPa indicating significant fibrosis and cirrhosis, respectively. At the World Health Organization-recommended cirrhosis threshold (>2.0), aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index had sensitivity (95% credible interval) of only 16.5% (12.5-20.5). We identified an optimised aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index rule-in threshold (>0.65) for liver stiffness measurement >12.2kPa with sensitivity and specificity of 56.2% (50.5-62.2) and 90.0% (89.0-91.0), and an optimised rule-out threshold (<0.36) with sensitivity and specificity of 80.6% (76.1-85.1) and 64.3% (62.8-65.8). Here we show that the World Health Organization-recommended aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index threshold is inappropriately high in sub-Saharan Africa; improved rule-in and rule-out thresholds can optimise treatment recommendations in this setting.

Typhoid conjugate vaccine effectiveness in Malawi: evaluation of a test-negative design using randomised, controlled clinical trial data.

BACKGROUND: Typhoid conjugate vaccines are being introduced in low-income and middle-income countries to prevent typhoid illness in children. Vaccine effectiveness studies assess vaccine performance after introduction. The test-negative design is a commonly used method to estimate vaccine effectiveness that has not been applied to typhoid vaccines because of concerns over blood culture insensitivity. The overall aim of the study was to evaluate the appropriateness of using a test-negative design to assess typhoid Vi polysaccharide-tetanus toxoid conjugate vaccine (Vi-TT) effectiveness using a gold standard randomised controlled trial database. METHODS: Using blood culture data from a randomised controlled trial of Vi-TT in Malawi, we simulated a test-negative design to derive vaccine effectiveness estimates using three different approaches and compared these to randomised trial efficacy results. In the randomised trial, 27 882 children aged 9 months to 12 years were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive a single dose of Vi-TT or meningococcal capsular group A conjugate vaccine between Feb 21 and Sept 27, 2018, and were followed up for blood culture-confirmed typhoid fever until Sept 30, 2021. FINDINGS: For all three test-negative design approaches, vaccine effectiveness estimates (test-negative design A, 80·3% [95% CI 66·2 to 88·5] vs test-negative design B, 80·5% [66·5 to 88·6] vs test-negative design C, 80·4% [66·9 to 88·4]) were almost identical to the randomised trial results (80·4% [95% CI 66·4 to 88·5]). Receipt of Vi-TT did not affect the risk of non-typhoid fever (vaccine efficacy against non-typhoid fever -0·4% [95% CI -4·9 to 3·9] vs -1% [-5·6 to 3·3] vs -2·5% [-6·4 to 1·3] for test-negative design A, test-negative design B, and test-negative design C, respectively). INTERPRETATION: This study validates the test-negative design core assumption for typhoid vaccine effectiveness estimation and shows the accuracy and precision of the estimates compared with the randomised controlled trial. These results show that the test-negative design is suitable for assessing typhoid conjugate vaccine effectiveness in post-introduction studies using blood culture surveillance. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Inequalities in the impact of COVID-19-associated disruptions on tuberculosis diagnosis by age and sex in 45 high TB burden countries.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis remains a major public health priority and is the second leading cause of mortality from infectious disease worldwide. TB case detection rates are unacceptably low for men, the elderly and children. Disruptions in TB services due to the COVID-19 pandemic may have exacerbated these and other inequalities. METHODS: We modelled trends in age- and sex- disaggregated case notifications for all forms of new and relapse TB reported to the World Health Organization for 45 high TB, TB/HIV and MDR-TB burden countries from 2013 to 2019. We compared trend predicted notifications to observed notifications in 2020 to estimate the number of people with TB likely to have missed or delayed diagnosis. We estimated the risk ratio (RR) of missed or delayed TB diagnosis for children (aged < 15 years) or the elderly (aged ≥ 65 years) compared to adults (aged 15-64 years) and women compared to men (both aged ≥ 15 years) using a random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: An estimated 195,449 children (95% confidence interval, CI: 189,673-201,562, 37.8% of an expected 517,168), 1,126,133 adults (CI: 1,107,146-1,145,704, 21.8% of an expected 5,170,592) and 235,402 elderly (CI: 228,108-243,202, 28.5% of an expected 826,563) had a missed or delayed TB diagnosis in 2020. This included 511,546 women (CI: 499,623-523,869, 22.7%, of an expected 2,250,097) and 863,916 men (CI: 847,591-880,515, 23.0% of an expected 3,763,363). There was no evidence globally that the risk of having TB diagnosis missed or delayed was different for children and adults (RR: 1.09, CI: 0.41-2.91), the elderly and adults (RR: 1.40, CI: 0.62-3.16) or men and women (RR: 0.59, CI: 0.25-1.42). However, there was evidence of disparities in risk by age and/or sex in some WHO regions and in most countries. CONCLUSIONS: There is no evidence at an aggregate global level of any difference by age or sex in the risk of disruption to TB diagnosis as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, in many countries, disruptions in TB services have been greater for some groups than others. It is important to recognise these context-specific inequalities when prioritising key populations for catch-up campaigns.

Comparison of maternal and neonatal outcomes of COVID-19 before and after SARS-CoV-2 omicron emergence in maternity facilities in Malawi (MATSurvey): data from a national maternal surveillance platform.

BACKGROUND: Outcomes of omicron-associated COVID-19 in pregnancy have not been reported from low-resource settings, and data from sub-Saharan Africa before the emergence of omicron are scarce. Using a national maternal surveillance platform (MATSurvey), we aimed to compare maternal and neonatal outcomes of COVID-19 in Malawi during the omicron wave to the preceding waves of beta and delta. METHODS: All pregnant and recently pregnant patients, up to 42 days following delivery, admitted to 33 health-care facilities throughout Malawi with symptomatic, test-proven COVID-19 during the second (beta [B.1.351]: January to April, 2021), third (delta [B.1.617.2]: June to October, 2021), and fourth (omicron [B.1.1.529]: December 2021 to March, 2022) waves were included, with no age restrictions. Demographic and clinical features, maternal outcomes of interest (severe maternal outcome [a composite of maternal near-miss events and maternal deaths] and maternal death), and neonatal outcomes of interest (stillbirth and death during maternal stay in the health-care facility of enrolment) were compared between the fourth wave and the second and third waves using Fisher's exact test. Adjusted odds ratios (ORs) for maternal outcomes were estimated using mixed-effects logistic regression. FINDINGS: Between Jan 1, 2021, and March 31, 2022, 437 patients admitted to 28 health-care facilities conducting MATSurvey had symptoms of COVID-19. SARS-CoV-2 infection was confirmed in 261 patients; of whom 76 (29%) had a severe maternal outcome and 45 (17%) died. These two outcomes were less common during the fourth wave (omicron dominance) than the second wave (adjusted OR of severe maternal outcome: 3·96 [95% CI 1·22-12·83], p=0·022; adjusted OR of maternal death: 5·65 [1·54-20·69], p=0·0090) and the third wave (adjusted OR: 3·18 [1·03-9·80], p=0·044; adjusted OR: 3·52 [0·98-12·60], p=0·053). Shortness of breath was the only symptom associated with poor maternal outcomes of interest (p<0·0001), and was less frequently reported in the fourth wave (23%) than in the second wave (51%; p=0·0007) or third wave (50%; p=0·0004). The demographic characteristics and medical histories of patients were similar across the three waves. During the second and third waves, 12 (13%) of 92 singleton neonates were stillborn or died during maternal stay in the health-care facility of enrolment, compared with 0 of the 25 born in the fourth wave (p=0·067 vs preceding waves combined). INTERPRETATION: Maternal and neonatal outcomes from COVID-19 were less severe during the fourth wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Malawi, during omicron dominance, than during the preceding beta and delta waves. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and the National Institute for Health and Care Research. TRANSLATION: For the Chichewa translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Waning of antibody levels induced by a 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine, using a 3 + 0 schedule, within the first year of life among children younger than 5 years in Blantyre, Malawi: an observational, population-level, serosurveillance study.

BACKGROUND: Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) induce serotype-specific IgG antibodies, effectively reducing vaccine-serotype carriage and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD). IgG production wanes approximately 1 month after vaccination in absence of serotype-specific exposure. With uncertainty surrrounding correlate of protection (CoP) estimates and with persistent vaccine-serotype carriage and vaccine-serotype IPD after PCV13 introduction, we aimed to profile population-level immunogenicity among children younger than 5 years in Blantyre, Malawi. METHODS: For this serosurveillance study, we used a random subset of samples from a prospective population-based serosurvey in Blantyre, Malawi, done between Dec 16, 2016, and June 27, 2018. Sample selection was based on age category optimisation among children younger than 5 years, adequate sample volume, and available budget. We measured serotype-specific IgGs against the 13 vaccine serotypes (1, 3, 4, 5, 6A, 6B, 7F, 9V, 14, 18C, 19A, 19F, and 23F) and two non-vaccine serotypes (12F and 33F), as well as IgGs against three pneumococcal proteins (PsaA, NanA, and Ply), using ELISA and a direct-binding electrochemiluminescence-based multiplex assay. We estimated population-level, serotype-specific immunogenicity profiles using a linear spline regression model. Analyses included samples stratified to 20 3-month age strata (eg, age <3 months to 57-59 months). FINDINGS: We evaluated 638 plasma samples: 556 primary samples and 82 unique secondary samples (each linked to one primary sample). Immunogenicity profiles revealed a consistent pattern among vaccine serotypes except serotype 3: a vaccine-induced IgG peak followed by waning to a nadir and subsequent increase in titre. For serotype 3, we observed no apparent vaccine-induced increase. Heterogeneity in parameters included age range at post-vaccination nadir (from 11·2 months [19A] to 27·3 months [7F]). The age at peak IgG titre ranged from 2·69 months (5) to 6·64 months (14). Titres dropped below CoPs against IPD among nine vaccine serotypes (1, 3, 4, 5, 6B, 7F, 9V, 18C, and 23F) and below CoPs against carriage for ten vaccine serotypes (1, 4, 5, 6B, 7F, 9V, 14, 18C, 19F, and 23F). Increasing antibody concentrations among older children and seroincident events were consistent with ongoing vaccine-serotype exposure. INTERPRETATION: A 3 + 0 PCV13 schedule with high uptake has not led to sustained population-level antibody immunity beyond the first year of life. Indeed, post-vaccine antibody concentrations dropped below putative CoPs for several vaccine serotypes, potentially contributing to persistent vaccine-serotype carriage and residual vaccine-serotype IPD in Malawi and other similar settings. Policy decisions should consider alternative vaccine strategies, including a booster dose, to achieve sustained vaccine-induced antibody titres, and thus control. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome UK, and National Institute for Health and Care Research.

Optimized methods for detecting Salmonella Typhi in the environment using validated field sampling, culture and confirmatory molecular approaches.

AIMS: This study evaluated detection methods for Salmonella Typhi (S. Typhi) in the environment, to establish a novel pathway from field sampling to isolation of viable organisms and molecular confirmation from complex environmental samples, thus enabling environmental surveillance of typhoid. METHODS AND RESULTS: Multiple media were assessed using clinical isolates from the Public Health England's (PHE) Culture collection. The culture pathway selected consisted of a primary 2% bile broth and secondary Selenite F broth, followed by modified Chromogenic Agar for Salmonella Esterase (mCASE). A qPCR assay was adapted from a validated S. Typhi PCR panel for confirmation of isolates, with comparison to biochemical and serological tests showing good specificity. Sampling locations in Blantyre, Malawi were used to compare sampling methods. Viable S. Typhi were isolated from a mixture of trap and grab river water samples on six occasions. CONCLUSIONS: Culture of viable S. Typhi from environmental samples was possible using effective capture and culture techniques. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF STUDY: Whilst several studies have attempted to detect S. Typhi from the environment, this is the first successful attempt to isolate the organism from river water since the 1980s. Supplementing clinical data with environmental screening offers the potential for enhanced surveillance, which might inform interventions and assess vaccination programmes.

Hepatitis B Vaccination Impact and the Unmet Need for Antiviral Treatment in Blantyre, Malawi.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis B is the leading cause of cirrhosis and liver cancer in sub-Saharan Africa. To reduce mortality, antiviral treatment programs are needed. We estimated prevalence, vaccine impact, and need for antiviral treatment in Blantyre, Malawi. METHODS: We conducted a household study in 2016-2018. We selected individuals from a census using random sampling and estimated age-sex-standardized hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) seroprevalence. Impact of infant hepatitis B vaccination was estimated by binomial log-linear regression comparing individuals born before and after vaccine implementation. In HBsAg-positive adults, eligibility for antiviral therapy was assessed. RESULTS: Of 97386 censused individuals, 6073 (median age 18 years; 56.7% female) were sampled. HBsAg seroprevalence was 5.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.3%-6.1%) among adults and 0.3% (95% CI, .1%-.6%) among children born after vaccine introduction. Estimated vaccine impact was 95.8% (95% CI, 70.3%-99.4%). Of HBsAg-positive adults, 26% were HIV-positive. Among HIV-negative individuals, 3%, 6%, and 9% were eligible for hepatitis B treatment by WHO, European, and American hepatology association criteria, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Infant HBV vaccination has been highly effective in reducing HBsAg prevalence in urban Malawi. Up to 9% of HBsAg-positive HIV-negative adults are eligible, but have an unmet need, for antiviral therapy.

Accuracy of computer-aided chest X-ray in community-based tuberculosis screening: Lessons from the 2016 Kenya National Tuberculosis Prevalence Survey.

Community-based screening for tuberculosis (TB) could improve detection but is resource intensive. We set out to evaluate the accuracy of computer-aided TB screening using digital chest X-ray (CXR) to determine if this approach met target product profiles (TPP) for community-based screening. CXR images from participants in the 2016 Kenya National TB Prevalence Survey were evaluated using CAD4TBv6 (Delft Imaging), giving a probabilistic score for pulmonary TB ranging from 0 (low probability) to 99 (high probability). We constructed a Bayesian latent class model to estimate the accuracy of CAD4TBv6 screening compared to bacteriologically-confirmed TB across CAD4TBv6 threshold cut-offs, incorporating data on Clinical Officer CXR interpretation, participant demographics (age, sex, TB symptoms, previous TB history), and sputum results. We compared model-estimated sensitivity and specificity of CAD4TBv6 to optimum and minimum TPPs. Of 63,050 prevalence survey participants, 61,848 (98%) had analysable CXR images, and 8,966 (14.5%) underwent sputum bacteriological testing; 298 had bacteriologically-confirmed pulmonary TB. Median CAD4TBv6 scores for participants with bacteriologically-confirmed TB were significantly higher (72, IQR: 58-82.75) compared to participants with bacteriologically-negative sputum results (49, IQR: 44-57, p<0.0001). CAD4TBv6 met the optimum TPP; with the threshold set to achieve a mean sensitivity of 95% (optimum TPP), specificity was 83.3%, (95% credible interval [CrI]: 83.0%-83.7%, CAD4TBv6 threshold: 55). There was considerable variation in accuracy by participant characteristics, with older individuals and those with previous TB having lowest specificity. CAD4TBv6 met the optimal TPP for TB community screening. To optimise screening accuracy and efficiency of confirmatory sputum testing, we recommend that an adaptive approach to threshold setting is adopted based on participant characteristics.

Reduction in Severity of All-Cause Gastroenteritis Requiring Hospitalisation in Children Vaccinated against Rotavirus in Malawi.

Rotavirus is the major cause of severe gastroenteritis in children aged <5 years. Introduction of the G1P[8] Rotarix® rotavirus vaccine in Malawi in 2012 has reduced rotavirus-associated hospitalisations and diarrhoeal mortality. However, the impact of rotavirus vaccine on the severity of gastroenteritis presented in children requiring hospitalisation remains unknown. We conducted a hospital-based surveillance study to assess the impact of Rotarix® vaccination on the severity of gastroenteritis presented by Malawian children. Stool samples were collected from children aged <5 years who required hospitalisation with acute gastroenteritis from December 2011 to October 2019. Gastroenteritis severity was determined using Ruuska and Vesikari scores. Rotavirus was detected using enzyme immunoassay. Rotavirus genotypes were determined using nested RT-PCR. Associations between Rotarix® vaccination and gastroenteritis severity were investigated using adjusted linear regression. In total, 3159 children were enrolled. After adjusting for mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC), age, gender and receipt of other vaccines, all-cause gastroenteritis severity scores were 2.21 units lower (p < 0.001) among Rotarix®-vaccinated (n = 2224) compared to Rotarix®-unvaccinated children (n = 935). The reduction in severity score was observed against every rotavirus genotype, although the magnitude was smaller among those infected with G12P[6] compared to the remaining genotypes (p = 0.011). Each one-year increment in age was associated with a decrease of 0.43 severity score (p < 0.001). Our findings provide additional evidence on the impact of Rotarix® in Malawi, lending further support to Malawi's Rotarix® programme.

Palliative care and catastrophic costs in Malawi after a diagnosis of advanced cancer: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Inclusive universal health coverage requires access to quality health care without financial barriers. Receipt of palliative care after advanced cancer diagnosis might reduce household poverty, but evidence from low-income and middle-income settings is sparse. METHODS: In this prospective study, the primary objective was to investigate total household costs of cancer-related health care after a diagnosis of advanced cancer, with and without the receipt of palliative care. Households comprising patients and their unpaid family caregiver were recruited into a cohort study at Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital in Malawi, between Jan 16 and July 31, 2019. Costs of cancer-related health-care use (including palliative care) and health-related quality-of-life were recorded over 6 months. Regression analysis explored associations between receipt of palliative care and total household costs on health care as a proportion of household income. Catastrophic costs, defined as 20% or more of total household income, sale of assets and loans taken out (dissaving), and their association with palliative care were computed. FINDINGS: We recruited 150 households. At 6 months, data from 89 (59%) of 150 households were available, comprising 89 patients (median age 50 years, 79% female) and 64 caregivers (median age 40 years, 73% female). Patients in 55 (37%) of the 150 households died and six (4%) were lost to follow-up. 19 (21%) of 89 households received palliative care. Catastrophic costs were experienced by nine (47%) of 19 households who received palliative care versus 48 (69%) of 70 households who did not (relative risk 0·69, 95% CI 0·42 to 1·14, p=0·109). Palliative care was associated with substantially reduced dissaving (median US$11, IQR 0 to 30 vs $34, 14 to 75; p=0·005). The mean difference in total household costs on cancer-related health care with receipt of palliative care was -36% (95% CI -94 to 594; p=0·707). INTERPRETATION: Vulnerable households in low-income countries are subject to catastrophic health-related costs following a diagnosis of advanced cancer. Palliative care might result in reduced dissaving in these households. Further consideration of the economic benefits of palliative care is justified. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust; National Institute for Health Research; and EMMS International.