ABSTRACT
We analyse JO_SCPLOWUNEC_SCPLOW : a detailed model of Covid-19 transmission with high spatial and demographic resolution, developed as part of the RAMP initiative. JO_SCPLOWUNEC_SCPLOW requires substantial computational resources to evaluate, making model calibration and general uncertainty analysis extremely challenging. We describe and employ the Uncertainty Quantification approaches of Bayes linear emulation and history matching, to mimic the JO_SCPLOWUNEC_SCPLOW model and to perform a global parameter search, hence identifying regions of parameter space that produce acceptable matches to observed data.
ABSTRACT
BackgroundFavipiravir is an oral, RNA-dependent RNA polymerase inhibitor with in vitro activity against SARS-CoV2. Despite limited data, favipiravir is administered to patients with COVID-19 in several countries. MethodsWe conducted a phase 2 double-blind randomized controlled outpatient trial of favipiravir in asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic adults with a positive SARS-CoV2 RT-PCR within 72 hours of enrollment. Participants were randomized 1:1 to receive placebo or favipiravir (1800 mg BID Day 1, 800mg BID Days 2-10). The primary outcome was SARS-CoV-2 shedding cessation in a modified intention-to-treat (mITT) cohort of participants with positive enrollment RT-PCRs. Using SARS-CoV-2 deep sequencing, we assessed favipiravirs impact on mutagenesis. ResultsFrom July 8, 2020 - March 23, 2021, we randomized 149 participants with 116 included in the mITT cohort. The participants mean age was 43 years (SD 12.5) and 57 (49%) were women. We found no difference in time to shedding cessation by treatment arm overall (HR 0.76 favoring placebo, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.48 - 1.20) or in sub-group analyses (age, sex, high-risk comorbidities, seropositivity or symptom duration at enrollment). We observed no difference in time to symptom resolution (initial: HR 0.84, 95% CI 0.54 - 1.29; sustained: HR 0.87, 95% CI 0.52 - 1.45). We detected no difference in accumulation of transition mutations in the viral genome during treatment. ConclusionsOur data do not support favipiravir use at commonly used doses in outpatients with uncomplicated COVID-19. Further research is needed to ascertain if higher doses of favipiravir are effective and safe for patients with COVID-19. Trial registration numberNCT04346628 SummaryIn this phase 2 double-blind randomized controlled outpatient trial of favipiravir in asymptomatic or uncomplicated patients with COVID-19, we found no difference in time to shedding cessation or time to symptom resolution by treatment arm.
ABSTRACT
With high levels of the Delta variant of COVID-19 circulating in England during September 2021, schools are set to reopen with few school-based non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). In this paper, we present simulation results obtained from the individual-based model, JO_SCPLOWUNEC_SCPLOW, for English school opening after a prior vaccination campaign using an optimistic set of assumptions about vaccine efficacy and the likelihood of prior-reinfection. We take a scenario-based approach to modelling potential interventions to assess relative changes rather than real-world forecasts. Specifically, we assess the effects of vaccinating those aged 16-17, those aged 12-17, and not vaccinating children at all relative to only vaccinating the adult population, addressing what might have happened had the UK began teenage vaccinations earlier. Vaccinating children in the 12-15 age group would have had a significant impact on the course of the epidemic, saving thousands of lives overall in these simulations. In the absence of such a vaccination campaign our simulations show there could still be a significant positive impact on the epidemic (fewer cases, fewer deaths) by continuing NPI strategies in schools. Our analysis suggests that the best results in terms of lives saved are likely derived from a combination of the now planned vaccination campaign and NPIs in schools.
