Drought risk for agricultural systems in South Africa: Drivers, spatial patterns, and implications for drought risk management.

The regular drought episodes in South Africa highlight the need to reduce drought risk by both policy and local community actions. Environmental and socioeconomic factors in South Africa's agricultural system have been affected by drought in the past, creating cascading pressures on the nation's agro-economic and water supply systems. Therefore, understanding the key drivers of all risk components through a comprehensive risk assessment must be undertaken in order to inform proactive drought risk management. This paper presents, for the first time, a national drought risk assessment for irrigated and rainfed systems, that takes into account the complex interaction between different risk components. We use modeling and remote sensing approaches and involve national experts in selecting vulnerability indicators and providing information on human and natural drivers. Our results show that all municipalities have been affected by drought in the last 30 years. The years 1981-1982, 1992, 2016 and 2018 were marked as the driest years during the study period (1981-2018) compared to the reference period (1986-2015). In general, the irrigated systems are remarkably less often affected by drought than rainfed systems; however, most farmers on irrigated land are smallholders for whom drought impacts can be significant. The drought risk of rainfed agricultural systems is exceptionally high in the north, central and west of the country, while for irrigated systems, there are more separate high-risk hotspots across the country. The vulnerability assessment identified potential entry points for disaster risk reduction at the local municipality level, such as increasing environmental awareness, reducing land degradation and increasing total dam and irrigation capacity.

Course, Moderators, and Predictors of Acute Coronary Syndrome-Induced Post-traumatic Stress: A Secondary Analysis From the Myocardial Infarction-Stress Prevention Intervention Randomized Controlled Trial.

Acute coronary syndromes (ACS) induce post-traumatic stress symptoms (PTSS) in one out of eight patients. Effects of preventive interventions, the course and potential moderators of ACS-induced PTSS are vastly understudied. This study explored whether a preventive behavioral intervention leads to a decrease in myocardial infarction (MI)-induced PTSS between two follow-up assessments. Sociodemographic, clinical and psychological factors were additionally tested as both moderators of change over time in PTSS and predictors of PTSS across two follow-ups. Within 48 h after reaching stable circulatory conditions, 104 patients with MI were randomized to a 45-min one-session intervention of either trauma-focused counseling or stress counseling (active control). Sociodemographic, clinical, and psychological data were collected at baseline, and PTSS were assessed with the Clinician-Administered Post-traumatic Stress Disorder Scale 3 and 12 months post-MI. PTSS severity showed no change over time from 3 to 12 months post-MI, either in all patients or through the intervention [mean group difference for total PTSS = 1.6 (95% CI -1.8, 4.9), re-experiencing symptoms = 0.8 (95% CI -0.7, 2.2), avoidance/numbing symptoms = 0.1 (95% CI -1.6, 1.7) and hyperarousal symptoms = 0.6 (95% CI -0.9, 2.1)]. Patients receiving one preventive session of trauma-focused counseling showed a decrease from 3 to 12 months post-MI in avoidance symptoms with higher age (p = 0.011) and direct associations of clinical burden indices with total PTSS across both follow-ups (p's ≤ 0.043; interaction effects). Regardless of the intervention, decreases in re-experiencing, avoidance and hyperarousal symptoms from 3 to 12 months post-MI occurred, respectively, in men (p = 0.006), participants with low education (p = 0.014) and with more acute stress symptoms (p = 0.021). Peritraumatic distress (p = 0.004) and lifetime depression (p = 0.038) predicted total PTSS across both follow-ups. We conclude that PTSS were persistent in the first year after MI and not prevented by an early one-session intervention. A preventive one-session intervention of trauma-focused counseling may be inappropriate for certain subgroups of patients, although this observation needs confirmation. As predictors of the development and persistence of PTSS, sociodemographic and psychological factors could help to identify high-risk patients yet at hospital admission.

Early Psychological Counseling for the Prevention of Posttraumatic Stress Induced by Acute Coronary Syndrome: The MI-SPRINT Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Acute coronary syndrome (ACS)-induced posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and clinically significant PTSD symptoms (PTSS) are found in 4 and 12% of patients, respectively. We hypothesized that trauma-focused counseling prevents the incidence of ACS-induced PTSS. METHODS: Within 48 h of hospital admission, 190 patients with high distress during ACS were randomized to a single-session intervention of either trauma-focused counseling or an active control intervention targeting the general role of stress in patients with heart disease. Blind interviewer-rated PTSS (primary outcome) and additional health outcomes were assessed at 3 months of follow-up. Trial results about prevalence were compared with data from previous studies on the natural incidence of ACS-induced PTSS/PTSD. RESULTS: Intention-to-treat analyses revealed no difference in interviewer-rated PTSS between trauma-focused counseling (mean, 11.33; 95% Cl, 9.23-13.43) and stress counseling (9.88; 7.36-12.40; p = 0.40), depressive symptoms (6.01, 4.98-7.03, vs. 4.71, 3.65-5.77; p = 0.08), global psychological distress (5.15, 4.07-6.23, vs. 3.80, 2.60-5.00; p = 0.11), and the risk for cardiovascular-related hospitalization/all-cause mortality (OR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.37-1.23). Self-rated PTSS indicated less beneficial effects with trauma-focused (6.54; 4.95-8.14) versus stress counseling (3.74; 2.39-5.08; p = 0.017). The completer analysis (154 cases) confirmed these findings. The prevalence rates of interviewer-rated PTSD (0.5%, 1/190) and self-rated PTSS were in this trial much lower than in meta-analyses and observation studies from the same cardiology department. CONCLUSIONS: Benefits were not seen for trauma-focused counseling when compared with an active control intervention. Nonetheless, in distressed ACS patients, individual, single-session, early psychological counseling shows potential as a means to prevent posttraumatic responses, but trauma-focused early treatments should probably be avoided.

Myocardial Infarction - Stress PRevention INTervention (MI-SPRINT) to reduce the incidence of posttraumatic stress after acute myocardial infarction through trauma-focused psychological counseling: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) may occur in patients after exposure to a life-threatening illness. About one out of six patients develop clinically relevant levels of PTSD symptoms after acute myocardial infarction (MI). Symptoms of PTSD are associated with impaired quality of life and increase the risk of recurrent cardiovascular events. The main hypothesis of the MI-SPRINT study is that trauma-focused psychological counseling is more effective than non-trauma focused counseling in preventing posttraumatic stress after acute MI. METHODS/DESIGN: The study is a single-center, randomized controlled psychological trial with two active intervention arms. The sample consists of 426 patients aged 18 years or older who are at 'high risk' to develop clinically relevant posttraumatic stress symptoms. 'High risk' patients are identified with three single-item questions with a numeric rating scale (0 to 10) asking about 'pain during MI', 'fear of dying until admission' and/or 'worrying and feeling helpless when being told about having MI'. Exclusion criteria are emergency heart surgery, severe comorbidities, current severe depression, disorientation, cognitive impairment and suicidal ideation. Patients will be randomly allocated to a single 45-minute counseling session targeting either specific MI-triggered traumatic reactions (that is, the verum intervention) or the general role of psychosocial stress in coronary heart disease (that is, the control intervention). The session will take place in the coronary care unit within 48 hours, by the bedside, after patients have reached stable circulatory conditions. Each patient will additionally receive an illustrated information booklet as study material. Sociodemographic factors, psychosocial and medical data, and cardiometabolic risk factors will be assessed during hospitalization. The primary outcome is the interviewer-rated posttraumatic stress level at three-month follow-up, which is hypothesized to be at least 20% lower in the verum group than in the control group using the t-test. Secondary outcomes are posttraumatic stress levels at 12-month follow-up, and psychosocial functioning and cardiometabolic risk factors at both follow-up assessments. DISCUSSION: If the verum intervention proves to be effective, the study will be the first to show that a brief trauma-focused psychological intervention delivered within a somatic health care setting can reduce the incidence of posttraumatic stress in acute MI patients. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01781247.

Early administration of oropharyngeal colostrum to extremely low birth weight infants.

BACKGROUND: Human milk reduces morbidities in extremely low birth weight (ELBW) infants. However, clinical instability often precludes ELBW infants from receiving early enteral feeds. This study compared clinical outcomes before and after implementing an oropharyngeal colostrum (COL) protocol in a cohort of inborn (born at our facility) ELBW infants. STUDY DESIGN: This is a retrospective cohort study of inborn ELBW infants admitted to the Duke Intensive Care Nursery from January 2007 to September 2011. In November 2010, we initiated a COL protocol for infants not enterally fed whose mothers were providing breastmilk. Infants received 0.1 mL of fresh COL to each cheek every 4 hours for 5 days beginning in the first 48 postnatal hours. We assessed demographics, diagnoses, feeding history, and mortality and for the presence of medical necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC), surgical NEC, and spontaneous perforation. Between-group comparisons were made using Fisher's exact test or Wilcoxon rank sum testing where appropriate. RESULTS: Of the 369 infants included, 280 (76%) were born prior to the COL protocol (Pre-COL Cohort [PCC]), and 89 (24%) were born after (COL Cohort [CC]). Mortality and the percentage of infants with surgical NEC and spontaneous perforations were statistically similar between the groups. The CC weighed an average (interquartile range) of 1,666 (1,399, 1,940) g at 36 weeks versus 1,380 (1,190, 1,650) g for the PCC (p<0.001). In a multivariable analysis with birth weight as a covariable, weight at 36 weeks was significantly greater (37 g; p<0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Initiating oropharyngeal COL in ELBW infants in the first 2 postnatal days appears feasible and safe and may be nutritionally beneficial. Further research is needed to determine if early COL administration reduces neonatal morbidity and mortality.

A randomized controlled trial of cognitive therapy, a self-help booklet, and repeated assessments as early interventions for posttraumatic stress disorder.

BACKGROUND: It is unclear what psychological help should be offered in the aftermath of traumatic events. Similarly, there is a lack of clarity about the best way of identifying people who are unlikely to recover from early posttraumatic symptoms without intervention. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether cognitive therapy or a self-help booklet given in the initial months after a traumatic event is more effective in preventing chronic posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) than repeated assessments. DESIGN: Randomized controlled trial. Patients Motor vehicle accident survivors (n = 97) who had PTSD in the initial months after the accident and met symptom criteria that had predicted persistent PTSD in a large naturalistic prospective study of a comparable population. SETTING: Patients were recruited from attendees at local accident and emergency departments. INTERVENTIONS: Patients completed a 3-week self-monitoring phase. Those who did not recover with self-monitoring (n = 85) were randomly assigned to receive cognitive therapy (n = 28), a self-help booklet based on principles of cognitive behavioral therapy (n = 28), or repeated assessments (n = 29). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Symptoms of PTSD as assessed by self-report and independent assessors unaware of the patient's allocation. Main assessments were at 3 months (posttreatment, n = 80) and 9 months (follow-up, n = 79). RESULTS: Twelve percent (n = 12) of patients recovered with self-monitoring. Cognitive therapy was more effective in reducing symptoms of PTSD, depression, anxiety, and disability than the self-help booklet or repeated assessments. At follow-up, fewer cognitive therapy patients (3 [11%]) had PTSD compared with those receiving the self-help booklet (17 [61%]; odds ratio, 12.9; 95% confidence interval, 3.1-53.1) or repeated assessments (16 [55%]; odds ratio, 10.3; 95% confidence interval, 2.5-41.7). There was no indication that the self-help booklet was superior to repeated assessments. On 2 measures, high end-state functioning at follow-up and request for treatment, the outcome for the self-help group was worse than for the repeated assessments group. CONCLUSIONS: Cognitive therapy is an effective intervention for recent-onset PTSD. A self-help booklet was not effective. The combination of an elevated initial symptom score and failure to improve with self-monitoring was effective in identifying a group of patients with early PTSD symptoms who were unlikely to recover without intervention.