Habitat suitability modelling to improve understanding of seagrass loss and recovery and to guide decisions in relation to coastal discharge.

Habitat suitability modelling was used to test the relationship between coastal discharges and seagrass occurrence based on data from Adelaide (South Australia). Seven variables (benthic light including epiphyte shading, temperature, salinity, substrate, wave exposure, currents and tidal exposure) were simulated using a coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model and interrogated against literature-derived thresholds for nine local seagrass species. Light availability was the most critical driver across the study area but wave exposure played a key role in shallow nearshore areas. Model validation against seagrass mapping data showed 86 % goodness-of-fit. Comparison against later mapping data suggested that modelling could predict ~745 ha of seagrass recovery in areas previously classified as 'false positives'. These results suggest that habitat suitability modelling is reliable to test scenarios and predict seagrass response to reduction of land-based loads, providing a useful tool to guide (investment) decisions to prevent loss and promote recovery of seagrasses.

A probabilistic framework for windows of opportunity: the role of temporal variability in critical transitions.

The establishment of young organisms in harsh environments often requires a window of opportunity (WoO). That is, a short time window in which environmental conditions drop long enough below the hostile average level, giving the organism time to develop tolerance and transition into stable existence. It has been suggested that this kind of establishment dynamics is a noise-induced transition between two alternate states. Understanding how temporal variability (i.e. noise) in environmental conditions affects establishment of organisms is therefore key, yet not well understood or included explicitly in the WoO framework. In this paper, we develop a coherent theoretical framework for understanding when the WoO open or close based on simple dichotomous environmental variation. We reveal that understanding of the intrinsic timescales of both the developing organism and the environment is fundamental to predict if organisms can or cannot establish. These insights have allowed us to develop statistical laws for predicting establishment probabilities based on the period and variance of the fluctuations in naturally variable environments. Based on this framework, we now get a clear understanding of how changes in the timing and magnitude of climate variability or management can mediate establishment chances.

Modelling spatial and temporal patterns in bioturbator effects on sediment resuspension: A biophysical metabolic approach.

Tidal flats are biogeomorphic landscapes, shaped by physical forces and interaction with benthic biota. We used a metabolic approach to assess the overarching effect of bioturbators on tidal landscapes. The benthic bivalve common cockle (Cerastoderma edule) was used as model organism. The effect of C. edule on sediment resuspension was approximated as a function of the overall population metabolic rate per unit of area. We combined i) laboratory observations on how C. edule affect sediment resuspension along gradients of bioturbation activity, sediment cohesiveness and hydrodynamic force with ii) spatial data on the natural distribution of intertidal C. edule populations. This allowed us to build an integrated model of the C. edule effect on sediment resuspension along the tidal gradient. Owing to the temperature dependence of metabolic rate, the model also accounted for seasonal variation in bioturbators activity. Laboratory experiments indicated that sediment resuspension is positively related to the metabolic rate of the C. edule population especially in cohesive sediments. Based on this observation, we predicted a clear spatial and seasonal pattern in the relative importance of C. edule contribution to sediment resuspension along a tidal transect. At lower elevations, our model indicates that hydrodynamics overrules biotic effects; at higher elevations, inter-tidal hydrodynamics should be too low to suspend bioturbated sediments. The influence of C. edule on sediment resuspension is expected to be maximal at the intermediate elevation of a mudflat, owing to the combination of moderate hydrodynamic stress and high bioturbator activity. Also, bio-mediated sediment resuspension is predicted to be particularly high in the warm season. Research into metabolic dependency of bio-mediated sediment resuspension may help to place phenomenological observations in the broader framework of metabolic theories in ecology and to formulate general expectations on the coastal ecosystem functioning.

Wave effects on seedling establishment of three pioneer marsh species: survival, morphology and biomechanics.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: It is important to have an in-depth mechanistic understanding of tidal marsh establishment and dynamics to ensure the long-term persistence of these valuable ecosystems. As wave forcing may be expected to impact seedling establishment, we studied the effect of water-imposed drag forces on seedling survival, morphology and biomechanical properties of three marsh pioneer species that are dominant along the salinity gradient in many areas around the world: Spartina anglica (salt to brackish), Scirpus maritimus (brackish) and Phragmites australis (brackish to fresh). METHODS: Using a newly developed plant-shaking mesocosm (PSM) that mimicked water-imposed wave drag forces, the effect of wave stress on seedling survival was examined, together with impacts on morphology and biomechanical properties. KEY RESULTS: After 7 weeks of exposure to wave stress, lowered seedling survival and growth for all species was revealed. Wave treatments increased the root/shoot biomass ratio to enhance anchorage and made seedlings more flexible (i.e. reduced flexural rigidity), which might be regarded as a mixed outcome between a stress avoidance and stress tolerance strategy. CONCLUSIONS: The different biomechanical responses between the three dominant marsh pioneer species, overall, make them less resistant to external stress. Therefore, our results indicate that the likelihood of marshes becoming established is reduced if wave energy increases. Despite the different biomechanical response of these three pioneer species to waves, the seedlings of all species were found to have low resistance to external stresses.

Ecosystem engineering creates a new path to resilience in plants with contrasting growth strategies.

Plant species can be characterized by different growth strategies related to their inherent growth and recovery rates, which shape their responses to stress and disturbance. Ecosystem engineering, however, offers an alternative way to cope with stress: modifying the environment may reduce stress levels. Using an experimental study on two seagrass species with contrasting traits, the slow-growing Zostera marina vs. the fast-growing Zostera japonica, we explored how growth strategies versus ecosystem engineering may affect their resistance to stress (i.e. addition of organic material) and recovery from disturbance (i.e. removal of above-ground biomass). Ecosystem engineering was assessed by measuring sulphide levels in the sediment porewater, as seagrass plants can keep sulphide levels low by aerating the rhizosphere. Consistent with predictions, we observed that the fast-growing species had a high capacity to recover from disturbance. It was also more resistant to stress and still able to maintain high standing stock with increasing stress levels because of its ecosystem engineering capacity. The slow-growing species was not able to maintain its standing stock under stress, which we ascribe to a weak capacity for ecosystem engineering regarding this particular stress. Overall, our study suggests that the combination of low-cost investment in tissues with ecosystem engineering to alleviate stress creates a new path in the growth trade-off between investment in strong tissues or fast growth. It does so by being both fast in recovery and more resistant. As such low-cost ecosystem engineering may occur in more species, we argue that it should be considered in assessing plant resilience.

A process based model of cohesive sediment resuspension under bioturbators' influence.

Macrozoobenthos may affect sediment stability and erodibility via their bioturbating activities, thereby impacting both the short- and long-term development of coastal morphology. Process-based models accounting for the effect of bioturbation are needed for the modelling of erosion dynamics. With this work, we explore whether the fundamental allometric principles of metabolic activity scaling with individual and population size may provide a framework to derive general patterns of bioturbation effect on cohesive sediment resuspension. Experimental flumes were used to test this scaling approach across different species of marine, soft-sediment bioturbators. The collected dataset encompasses a range of bioturbator functional diversity, individual densities, body sizes and overall population metabolic rates. Measurements were collected across a range of hydrodynamic stress from 0.02 to 0.25 Pa. Overall, we observed that bioturbators are able to slightly reduce the sediment resuspension at low hydrodynamic stress, whereas they noticeably enhance it at higher levels of stress. Along the whole hydrodynamic stress gradient, the quantitative effect of bioturbators on sediment resuspension can be efficiently described by the overall metabolic rate of the bioturbating benthic communities, with significant variations across the bioturbators' taxonomic and functional diversity. One of the tested species (the gallery-builder Polychaeta Hediste diversicolor) had an effect that was partially deviating from the general trend, being able to markedly reduce sediment resuspension at low hydrodynamic stress compared to other species. By combining bioturbators' influence with hydrodynamic force, we were able to produce a process-based model of biota-mediated sediment resuspension.

The combined influence of body size and density on cohesive sediment resuspension by bioturbators.

We propose an empirical framework to scale the effects of bioturbation on sediment resuspension to population bioturbation activity, approximated as population metabolic rate. Individual metabolic rates have been estimated as functions of body size and extrapolated to population level. We used experimental flumes to test this approach across different types of marine, soft-sediment bioturbators. We observed that a large part of the variance in biota-mediated sediment resuspension can be explained by a positive relationship with population metabolic rate. Other mechanisms can strongly influence the outcome, such as bioturbation of deep sediment strata, biotic interactions with hydrodynamic stress and overlapping areas of influence must be further investigated. By relating the biota-mediated changes in resuspended sediment to metabolism, we can place our observations within the broader context of the metabolic theory of ecology and to formulate general expectations about changes in biota-mediated sediment resuspension in response to changes in population structure and climate change.

Latitudinal Patterns in European Seagrass Carbon Reserves: Influence of Seasonal Fluctuations versus Short-Term Stress and Disturbance Events.

Seagrass meadows form highly productive and valuable ecosystems in the marine environment. Throughout the year, seagrass meadows are exposed to abiotic and biotic variations linked to (i) seasonal fluctuations, (ii) short-term stress events such as, e.g., local nutrient enrichment, and (iii) small-scale disturbances such as, e.g., biomass removal by grazing. We hypothesized that short-term stress events and small-scale disturbances may affect seagrass chance for survival in temperate latitudes. To test this hypothesis we focused on seagrass carbon reserves in the form of starch stored seasonally in rhizomes, as these have been defined as a good indicator for winter survival. Twelve Zostera noltei meadows were monitored along a latitudinal gradient in Western Europe to firstly assess the seasonal change of their rhizomal starch content. Secondly, we tested the effects of nutrient enrichment and/or biomass removal on the corresponding starch content by using a short-term manipulative field experiment at a single latitude in the Netherlands. At the end of the growing season, we observed a weak but significant linear increase of starch content along the latitudinal gradient from south to north. This agrees with the contention that such reserves are essential for regrowth after winter, which is more severe in the north. In addition, we also observed a weak but significant positive relationship between starch content at the beginning of the growing season and past winter temperatures. This implies a lower regrowth potential after severe winters, due to diminished starch content at the beginning of the growing season. Short-term stress and disturbances may intensify these patterns, because our manipulative experiments show that when nutrient enrichment and biomass loss co-occurred at the end of the growing season, Z. noltei starch content declined. In temperate zones, the capacity of seagrasses to accumulate carbon reserves is expected to determine carbon-based regrowth after winter. Therefore, processes affecting those reserves might affect seagrass resilience. With increasing human pressure on coastal systems, short- and small-scale stress events are expected to become more frequent, threatening the resilience of seagrass ecosystems, particularly at higher latitudes, where populations tend to have an annual cycle highly dependent on their storage capacity.

Behavioral self-organization underlies the resilience of a coastal ecosystem.

Self-organized spatial patterns occur in many terrestrial, aquatic, and marine ecosystems. Theoretical models and observational studies suggest self-organization, the formation of patterns due to ecological interactions, is critical for enhanced ecosystem resilience. However, experimental tests of this cross-ecosystem theory are lacking. In this study, we experimentally test the hypothesis that self-organized pattern formation improves the persistence of mussel beds (Mytilus edulis) on intertidal flats. In natural beds, mussels generate self-organized patterns at two different spatial scales: regularly spaced clusters of mussels at centimeter scale driven by behavioral aggregation and large-scale, regularly spaced bands at meter scale driven by ecological feedback mechanisms. To test for the relative importance of these two spatial scales of self-organization on mussel bed persistence, we conducted field manipulations in which we factorially constructed small-scale and/or large-scale patterns. Our results revealed that both forms of self-organization enhanced the persistence of the constructed mussel beds in comparison to nonorganized beds. Small-scale, behaviorally driven cluster patterns were found to be crucial for persistence, and thus resistance to wave disturbance, whereas large-scale, self-organized patterns facilitated reformation of small-scale patterns if mussels were dislodged. This study provides experimental evidence that self-organization can be paramount to enhancing ecosystem persistence. We conclude that ecosystems with self-organized spatial patterns are likely to benefit greatly from conservation and restoration actions that use the emergent effects of self-organization to increase ecosystem resistance to disturbance.

Vegetation recovery in tidal marshes reveals critical slowing down under increased inundation.

A declining rate of recovery following disturbance has been proposed as an important early warning for impending tipping points in complex systems. Despite extensive theoretical and laboratory studies, this 'critical slowing down' remains largely untested in the complex settings of real-world ecosystems. Here, we provide both observational and experimental support of critical slowing down along natural stress gradients in tidal marsh ecosystems. Time series of aerial images of European marsh development reveal a consistent lengthening of recovery time as inundation stress increases. We corroborate this finding with transplantation experiments in European and North American tidal marshes. In particular, our results emphasize the power of direct observational or experimental measures of recovery over indirect statistical signatures, such as spatial variance or autocorrelation. Our results indicate that the phenomenon of critical slowing down can provide a powerful tool to probe the resilience of natural ecosystems.

Sprouting as a gardening strategy to obtain superior supplementary food: evidence from a seed-caching marine worm.

Only a handful of non-human animals are known to grow their own food by cultivating high-yield fungal or algal crops as staple food. Here we report an alternative strategy utilized by an omnivorous marine worm, Hediste diversicolor, to supplement its diet: gardening by sprouting seeds. In addition to having many other known feeding modes, we showed using video recordings and manipulative mesocosm experiments that this species can also behave like gardeners by deliberately burying cordgrass seeds in their burrows, which has been previously shown to reduce the loss of seeds to water. These seeds, however, are protected by the seed husk, and we used feeding experiments to show that they were not edible for H. diversicolor until they had sprouted or the seed husk had been artificially removed. Additionally, sprouts were shown to be highly nutritious, permitting higher growth rates in H. diversicolor than the low-quality basal food, detritus. We propose both a proximate cause (seed husk as a physical barrier) and ultimate cause (nutritional demand) for this peculiar feeding behavior. Our findings suggest that sprouting may be a common strategy used by seed-collecting animals to exploit nutrients from well-protected seeds.

Phase separation driven by density-dependent movement: A novel mechanism for ecological patterns.

Many ecosystems develop strikingly regular spatial patterns because of small-scale interactions between organisms, a process generally referred to as spatial self-organization. Self-organized spatial patterns are important determinants of the functioning of ecosystems, promoting the growth and survival of the involved organisms, and affecting the capacity of the organisms to cope with changing environmental conditions. The predominant explanation for self-organized pattern formation is spatial heterogeneity in establishment, growth and mortality, resulting from the self-organization processes. A number of recent studies, however, have revealed that movement of organisms can be an important driving process creating extensive spatial patterning in many ecosystems. Here, we review studies that detail movement-based pattern formation in contrasting ecological settings. Our review highlights that a common principle, where movement of organisms is density-dependent, explains observed spatial regular patterns in all of these studies. This principle, well known to physics as the Cahn-Hilliard principle of phase separation, has so-far remained unrecognized as a general mechanism for self-organized complexity in ecology. Using the examples presented in this paper, we explain how this movement principle can be discerned in ecological settings, and clarify how to test this mechanism experimentally. Our study highlights that animal movement, both in isolation and in unison with other processes, is an important mechanism for regular pattern formation in ecosystems.

Tiny is mighty: seagrass beds have a large role in the export of organic material in the tropical coastal zone.

Ecosystems in the tropical coastal zone exchange particulate organic matter (POM) with adjacent systems, but differences in this function among ecosystems remain poorly quantified. Seagrass beds are often a relatively small section of this coastal zone, but have a potentially much larger ecological influence than suggested by their surface area. Using stable isotopes as tracers of oceanic, terrestrial, mangrove and seagrass sources, we investigated the origin of particulate organic matter in nine mangrove bays around the island of Phuket (Thailand). We used a linear mixing model based on bulk organic carbon, total nitrogen and δ13C and δ15N and found that oceanic sources dominated suspended particulate organic matter samples along the mangrove-seagrass-ocean gradient. Sediment trap samples showed contributions from four sources oceanic, mangrove forest/terrestrial and seagrass beds where oceanic had the strongest contribution and seagrass beds the smallest. Based on ecosystem area, however, the contribution of suspended particulate organic matter derived from seagrass beds was disproportionally high, relative to the entire area occupied by mangrove forests, the catchment area (terrestrial) and seagrass beds. The contribution from mangrove forests was approximately equal to their surface area, whereas terrestrial contributions to suspended organic matter under contributed compared to their relative catchment area. Interestingly, mangrove forest contribution at 0 m on the transects showed a positive relationship with the exposed frontal width of the mangrove, indicating that mangrove forest exposure to hydrodynamic energy may be a controlling factor in mangrove outwelling. However we found no relationship between seagrass bed contribution and any physical factors, which we measured. Our results indicate that although seagrass beds occupy a relatively small area of the coastal zone, their role in the export of organic matter is disproportional and should be considered in coastal management especially with respect to their importance as a nutrient source for other ecosystems and organisms.

Pattern formation at multiple spatial scales drives the resilience of mussel bed ecosystems.

Self-organized complexity at multiple spatial scales is a distinctive characteristic of biological systems. Yet, little is known about how different self-organizing processes operating at different spatial scales interact to determine ecosystem functioning. Here we show that the interplay between self-organizing processes at individual and ecosystem level is a key determinant of the functioning and resilience of mussel beds. In mussel beds, self-organization generates spatial patterns at two characteristic spatial scales: small-scale net-shaped patterns due to behavioural aggregation of individuals, and large-scale banded patterns due to the interplay of between-mussel facilitation and resource depletion. Model analysis reveals that the interaction between these behavioural and ecosystem-level mechanisms increases mussel bed resilience, enables persistence under deteriorating conditions and makes them less prone to catastrophic collapse. Our analysis highlights that interactions between different forms of self-organization at multiple spatial scales may enhance the intrinsic ability of ecosystems to withstand both natural and human-induced disturbances.

Cover versus recovery: contrasting responses of two indicators in seagrass beds.

Despite being a highly valuable key-stone ecosystem, seagrass meadows are threatened and declining worldwide, creating urgent need for indicators of their health status. We compared two indicators for seagrass health: standing leaf area index versus relative recovery from local disturbance. Disturbance was created by removing aboveground biomass and recording the rate of regrowth for Zostera marina meadows exposed to contrasting wave regimes and nutrient stress levels. Within the experimental period, relative regrowth in gaps was around 50% in most plots, except for the ambient nutrient treatment at the sheltered site, where it exceeded 100%. The two indicators showed an opposite response to disturbance: the higher the standing leaf area index, the lower the relative recovery from disturbance. This conflicting response raises the question on the proper interpretation of such indicators to estimate seagrass health and resilience, and how to ideally monitor seagrass ecosystems in order to predict collapse.

Biogenic gradients in algal density affect the emergent properties of spatially self-organized mussel beds.

Theoretical models highlight that spatially self-organized patterns can have important emergent effects on the functioning of ecosystems, for instance by increasing productivity and affecting the vulnerability to catastrophic shifts. However, most theoretical studies presume idealized homogeneous conditions, which are rarely met in real ecosystems. Using self-organized mussel beds as a case study, we reveal that spatial heterogeneity, resulting from the large-scale effects of mussel beds on their environment, significantly alters the emergent properties predicted by idealized self-organization models that assume homogeneous conditions. The proposed model explicitly considers that the suspended algae, the prime food for the mussels, are supplied by water flow from the seaward boundary of the bed, which causes in combination with consumption a gradual depletion of algae over the simulated domain. Predictions of the model are consistent with properties of natural mussel patterns observed in the field, featuring a decline in mussel biomass and a change in patterning. Model analyses reveal a fundamental change in ecosystem functioning when this self-induced algal depletion gradient is included in the model. First, no enhancement of secondary productivity of the mussels comparing with non-patterns states is predicted, irrespective of parameter setting; the equilibrium amount of mussels is entirely set by the input of algae. Second, alternate stable states, potentially present in the original (no algal gradient) model, are absent when gradual depletion of algae in the overflowing water layer is allowed. Our findings stress the importance of including sufficiently realistic environmental conditions when assessing the emergent properties of self-organized ecosystems.

A mixed modeling approach to predict the effect of environmental modification on species distributions.

Human infrastructures can modify ecosystems, thereby affecting the occurrence and spatial distribution of organisms, as well as ecosystem functionality. Sustainable development requires the ability to predict responses of species to anthropogenic pressures. We investigated the large scale, long term effect of important human alterations of benthic habitats with an integrated approach combining engineering and ecological modelling. We focused our analysis on the Oosterschelde basin (The Netherlands), which was partially embanked by a storm surge barrier (Oosterscheldekering, 1986). We made use of 1) a prognostic (numerical) environmental (hydrodynamic) model and 2) a novel application of quantile regression to Species Distribution Modeling (SDM) to simulate both the realized and potential (habitat suitability) abundance of four macrozoobenthic species: Scoloplos armiger, Peringia ulvae, Cerastoderma edule and Lanice conchilega. The analysis shows that part of the fluctuations in macrozoobenthic biomass stocks during the last decades is related to the effect of the coastal defense infrastructures on the basin morphology and hydrodynamics. The methodological framework we propose is particularly suitable for the analysis of large abundance datasets combined with high-resolution environmental data. Our analysis provides useful information on future changes in ecosystem functionality induced by human activities.

Habitat collapse due to overgrazing threatens turtle conservation in marine protected areas.

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are key tools for combatting the global overexploitation of endangered species. The prevailing paradigm is that MPAs are beneficial in helping to restore ecosystems to more 'natural' conditions. However, MPAs may have unintended negative effects when increasing densities of protected species exert destructive effects on their habitat. Here, we report on severe seagrass degradation in a decade-old MPA where hyper-abundant green turtles adopted a previously undescribed below-ground foraging strategy. By digging for and consuming rhizomes and roots, turtles create abundant bare gaps, thereby enhancing erosion and reducing seagrass regrowth. A fully parametrized model reveals that the ecosystem is approaching a tipping point, where consumption overwhelms regrowth, which could potentially lead to complete collapse of the seagrass habitat. Seagrass recovery will not ensue unless turtle density is reduced to nearly zero, eliminating the MPA's value as a turtle reserve. Our results reveal an unrecognized, yet imminent threat to MPAs, as sea turtle densities are increasing at major nesting sites and the decline of seagrass habitat forces turtles to concentrate on the remaining meadows inside reserves. This emphasizes the need for policy and management approaches that consider the interactions of protected species with their habitat.

How superdiffusion gets arrested: ecological encounters explain shift from Lévy to Brownian movement.

Ecological theory uses Brownian motion as a default template for describing ecological movement, despite limited mechanistic underpinning. The generality of Brownian motion has recently been challenged by empirical studies that highlight alternative movement patterns of animals, especially when foraging in resource-poor environments. Yet, empirical studies reveal animals moving in a Brownian fashion when resources are abundant. We demonstrate that Einstein's original theory of collision-induced Brownian motion in physics provides a parsimonious, mechanistic explanation for these observations. Here, Brownian motion results from frequent encounters between organisms in dense environments. In density-controlled experiments, movement patterns of mussels shifted from Lévy towards Brownian motion with increasing density. When the analysis was restricted to moves not truncated by encounters, this shift did not occur. Using a theoretical argument, we explain that any movement pattern approximates Brownian motion at high-resource densities, provided that movement is interrupted upon encounters. Hence, the observed shift to Brownian motion does not indicate a density-dependent change in movement strategy but rather results from frequent collisions. Our results emphasize the need for a more mechanistic use of Brownian motion in ecology, highlighting that especially in rich environments, Brownian motion emerges from ecological interactions, rather than being a default movement pattern.