Postfire biodiversity database for eastern Iberia.

In the summer of 2012, two fires affected Mediterranean ecosystems in the eastern Iberian Peninsula. The size of these fires was at the extreme of the historical variability (megafires). Animals are traditionally assumed to recolonize from source populations outside of the burned area (exogenous regeneration) while plants recover from endogenous regeneration (resprouting and seeding). However, there is increasing evidence of in situ fire survival in animals. To evaluate the effect of large-scale fires on biodiversity and the mechanism of recovery, in 2013, we set up 12 plots per fire, covering burned vegetation at different distances from the fire perimeter and unburned vegetation. In each plot, we followed the postfire recovery of arthropods, reptiles (including some of their parasites), and plants for 2 to 5 years. Here we present the resulting database (POSTDIV) of taxon abundance. POSTDIV totals 19,906 records for 457 arthropod taxa (113,681 individuals), 12 reptile taxa (503 individuals), 4 reptile parasites (234 individuals), and 518 plant taxa (cover-abundance). We provide examples in the R language to query the database.

Logistic-growth models measuring density feedback are sensitive to population declines, but not fluctuating carrying capacity.

Analysis of long-term trends in abundance of animal populations provides insights into population dynamics. Population growth rates are the emergent interplay of inter alia fertility, survival, and dispersal. However, the density feedbacks operating on some vital rates ("component feedback") can be decoupled from density feedbacks on population growth rates estimated using abundance time series ("ensemble feedback"). Many of the mechanisms responsible for this decoupling are poorly understood, thereby questioning the validity of using logistic-growth models versus vital rates to infer long-term population trends. To examine which conditions lead to decoupling, we simulated age-structured populations of long-lived vertebrates experiencing component density feedbacks on survival. We then quantified how imposed stochasticity in survival rates, density-independent mortality (catastrophes, harvest-like removal of individuals) and variation in carrying capacity modified the ensemble feedback in abundance time series simulated from age-structured populations. The statistical detection of ensemble density feedback from census data was largely unaffected by density-independent processes. Long-term population decline caused from density-independent mortality was the main mechanism decoupling the strength of component versus ensemble density feedbacks. Our study supports the use of simple logistic-growth models to capture long-term population trends, mediated by changes in population abundance, when survival rates are stochastic, carrying capacity fluctuates, and populations experience moderate catastrophic mortality over time.

Bone need not remain an elephant in the room for radiocarbon dating.

Radiocarbon (14C) analysis of skeletal remains by accelerator mass spectrometry is an essential tool in multiple branches of science. However, bone 14C dating results can be inconsistent and not comparable due to disparate laboratory pretreatment protocols that remove contamination. And, pretreatments are rarely discussed or reported by end-users, making it an 'elephant in the room' for Quaternary scientists. Through a questionnaire survey, I quantified consensus on the reliability of collagen pretreatments for 14C dating across 132 experts (25 countries). I discovered that while more than 95% of the audience was wary of contamination and would avoid gelatinization alone (minimum pretreatment used by most 14C facilities), 52% asked laboratories to choose the pretreatment method for them, and 58% could not rank the reliability of at least one pretreatment. Ultrafiltration was highly popular, and purification by XAD resins seemed restricted to American researchers. Isolating and dating the amino acid hydroxyproline was perceived as the most reliable pretreatment, but is expensive, time-consuming and not widely available. Solid evidence supports that only molecular-level dating accommodates all known bone contaminants and guarantees complete removal of humic and fulvic acids and conservation substances, with three key areas of progress: (i) innovation and more funded research is required to develop affordable analytical chemistry that can handle low-mass samples of collagen amino acids, (ii) a certification agency overseeing dating-quality control is needed to enhance methodological reproducibility and dating accuracy among laboratories, and (iii) more cross-disciplinary work with better 14C reporting etiquette will promote the integration of 14C dating across disciplines. Those developments could conclude long-standing debates based on low-accuracy data used to build chronologies for animal domestications, human/megafauna extirpations and migrations, archaeology, palaeoecology, palaeontology and palaeoclimate models.

ACDC, a global database of amphibian cytochrome-b sequences using reproducible curation for GenBank records.

Genetic data are a crucial and exponentially growing resource across all biological sciences, yet curated databases are scarce. The widespread occurrence of sequence and (meta)data errors in public repositories calls for comprehensive improvements of curation protocols leading to robust research and downstream analyses. We collated and curated all available GenBank cytochrome-b sequences for amphibians, a benchmark marker in this globally declining vertebrate clade. The Amphibia's Curated Database of Cytochrome-b (ACDC) consists of 36,514 sequences representing 2,309 species from 398 genera (median = 2 with 50% interquartile ranges of 1-7 species/genus). We updated the taxonomic identity of >4,800 sequences (ca. 13%) and found 2,359 (6%) conflicting sequences with 84% of the errors originating from taxonomic misidentifications. The database (accessible at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.9944759 ) also includes an R script to replicate our study for other loci and taxonomic groups. We provide recommendations to improve genetic-data quality in public repositories and flag species for which there is a need for taxonomic refinement in the face of increased rate of amphibian extinctions in the Anthropocene.

An optimized method for the extraction of ancient eukaryote DNA from marine sediments.

Marine sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) provides a powerful means to reconstruct marine palaeo-communities across the food web. However, currently there are few optimized sedaDNA extraction protocols available to maximize the yield of small DNA fragments typical of ancient DNA (aDNA) across a broad diversity of eukaryotes. We compared seven combinations of sedaDNA extraction treatments and sequencing library preparations using marine sediments collected at a water depth of 104 m off Maria Island, Tasmania, in 2018. These seven methods contrasted frozen versus refrigerated sediment, bead-beating induced cell lysis versus ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid (EDTA) incubation, DNA binding in silica spin columns versus in silica-solution, diluted versus undiluted DNA in shotgun library preparations to test potential inhibition issues during amplification steps, and size-selection of low molecular-weight (LMW) DNA to increase the extraction efficiency of sedaDNA. Maximum efficiency was obtained from frozen sediments subjected to a combination of EDTA incubation and bead-beating, DNA binding in silica-solution, and undiluted DNA in shotgun libraries, across 45 marine eukaryotic taxa. We present an optimized extraction protocol integrating these steps, with an optional post-library LMW size-selection step to retain DNA fragments of ≤500 base pairs. We also describe a stringent bioinformatic filtering approach for metagenomic data and provide a comprehensive list of contaminants as a reference for future sedaDNA studies. The new extraction and data-processing protocol should improve quantitative paleo-monitoring of eukaryotes from marine sediments, as well as other studies relying on the detection of highly fragmented and degraded eukaryote DNA in sediments.

Intraspecific variation in lizard heat tolerance alters estimates of climate impact.

Research addressing the effects of global warming on the distribution and persistence of species generally assumes that population variation in thermal tolerance is spatially constant or overridden by interspecific variation. Typically, this rationale is implicit in sourcing one critical thermal maximum (CTmax ) population estimate per species to model spatiotemporal cross-taxa variation in heat tolerance. Theory suggests that such an approach could result in biased or imprecise estimates and forecasts of impact from climate warming, but limited empirical evidence in support of those expectations exists. We experimentally quantify the magnitude of intraspecific variation in CTmax among lizard populations, and the extent to which incorporating such variability can alter estimates of climate impact through a biophysical model. To do so, we measured CTmax from 59 populations of 15 Iberian lizard species (304 individuals). The overall median CTmax across all individuals from all species was 42.8°C and ranged from 40.5 to 48.3°C, with species medians decreasing through xeric, climate-generalist and mesic taxa. We found strong statistical support for intraspecific differentiation in CTmax by up to a median of 3°C among populations. We show that annual restricted activity (operative temperature > CTmax ) over the Iberian distribution of our study species differs by a median of >80 hr per 25-km2 grid cell based on different population-level CTmax estimates. This discrepancy leads to predictions of spatial variation in annual restricted activity to change by more than 20 days for six of the study species. Considering that during restriction periods, reptiles should be unable to feed and reproduce, current projections of climate-change impacts on the fitness of ectotherm fauna could be under- or over-estimated depending on which population is chosen to represent the physiological spectra of the species in question. Mapping heat tolerance over the full geographical ranges of single species is thus critical to address cross-taxa patterns and drivers of heat tolerance in a biologically comprehensive way.

A comprehensive database of quality-rated fossil ages for Sahul's Quaternary vertebrates.

The study of palaeo-chronologies using fossil data provides evidence for past ecological and evolutionary processes, and is therefore useful for predicting patterns and impacts of future environmental change. However, the robustness of inferences made from fossil ages relies heavily on both the quantity and quality of available data. We compiled Quaternary non-human vertebrate fossil ages from Sahul published up to 2013. This, the FosSahul database, includes 9,302 fossil records from 363 deposits, for a total of 478 species within 215 genera, of which 27 are from extinct and extant megafaunal species (2,559 records). We also provide a rating of reliability of individual absolute age based on the dating protocols and association between the dated materials and the fossil remains. Our proposed rating system identified 2,422 records with high-quality ages (i.e., a reduction of 74%). There are many applications of the database, including disentangling the confounding influences of hypothetical extinction drivers, better spatial distribution estimates of species relative to palaeo-climates, and potentially identifying new areas for fossil discovery.

Climate change not to blame for late Quaternary megafauna extinctions in Australia.

Late Quaternary megafauna extinctions impoverished mammalian diversity worldwide. The causes of these extinctions in Australia are most controversial but essential to resolve, because this continent-wide event presaged similar losses that occurred thousands of years later on other continents. Here we apply a rigorous metadata analysis and new ensemble-hindcasting approach to 659 Australian megafauna fossil ages. When coupled with analysis of several high-resolution climate records, we show that megafaunal extinctions were broadly synchronous among genera and independent of climate aridity and variability in Australia over the last 120,000 years. Our results reject climate change as the primary driver of megafauna extinctions in the world's most controversial context, and instead estimate that the megafauna disappeared Australia-wide ∼13,500 years after human arrival, with shorter periods of coexistence in some regions. This is the first comprehensive approach to incorporate uncertainty in fossil ages, extinction timing and climatology, to quantify mechanisms of prehistorical extinctions.

Predictors of contraction and expansion of area of occupancy for British birds.

Geographical range dynamics are driven by the joint effects of abiotic factors, human ecosystem modifications, biotic interactions and the intrinsic organismal responses to these. However, the relative contribution of each component remains largely unknown. Here, we compare the contribution of life-history attributes, broad-scale gradients in climate and geographical context of species' historical ranges, as predictors of recent changes in area of occupancy for 116 terrestrial British breeding birds (74 contractors, 42 expanders) between the early 1970s and late 1990 s. Regional threat classifications demonstrated that the species of highest conservation concern showed both the largest contractions and the smallest expansions. Species responded differently to climate depending on geographical distribution-northern species changed their area of occupancy (expansion or contraction) more in warmer and drier regions, whereas southern species changed more in colder and wetter environments. Species with slow life history (larger body size) tended to have a lower probability of changing their area of occupancy than species with faster life history, whereas species with greater natal dispersal capacity resisted contraction and, counterintuitively, expansion. Higher geographical fragmentation of species' range also increased expansion probability, possibly indicating a release from a previously limiting condition, for example through agricultural abandonment since the 1970s. After accounting statistically for the complexity and nonlinearity of the data, our results demonstrate two key aspects of changing area of occupancy for British birds: (i) climate is the dominant driver of change, but direction of effect depends on geographical context, and (ii) all of our predictors generally had a similar effect regardless of the direction of the change (contraction versus expansion). Although we caution applying results from Britain's highly modified and well-studied bird community to other biogeographic regions, our results do indicate that a species' propensity to change area of occupancy over decadal scales can be explained partially by a combination of simple allometric predictors of life-history pace, average climate conditions and geographical context.

Spatial climate patterns explain negligible variation in strength of compensatory density feedbacks in birds and mammals.

The use of long-term population data to separate the demographic role of climate from density-modified demographic processes has become a major topic of ecological investigation over the last two decades. Although the ecological and evolutionary mechanisms that determine the strength of density feedbacks are now well understood, the degree to which climate gradients shape those processes across taxa and broad spatial scales remains unclear. Intuitively, harsh or highly variable environmental conditions should weaken compensatory density feedbacks because populations are hypothetically unable to achieve or maintain densities at which social and trophic interactions (e.g., competition, parasitism, predation, disease) might systematically reduce population growth. Here we investigate variation in the strength of compensatory density feedback, from long-term time series of abundance over 146 species of birds and mammals, in response to spatial gradients of broad-scale temperature precipitation variables covering 97 localities in 28 countries. We use information-theoretic metrics to rank phylogenetic generalized least-squares regression models that control for sample size (time-series length) and phylogenetic non-independence. Climatic factors explained < 1% of the remaining variation in density-feedback strength across species, with the highest non-control, model-averaged effect sizes related to extreme precipitation variables. We could not link our results directly to other published studies, because ecologists use contrasting responses, predictors and statistical approaches to correlate density feedback and climate--at the expense of comparability in a macroecological context. Censuses of multiple populations within a given species, and a priori knowledge of the spatial scales at which density feedbacks interact with climate, seem to be necessary to determine cross-taxa variation in this phenomenon. Despite the availability of robust modelling tools, the appropriate data have not yet been gathered for most species, meaning that we cannot yet make any robust generalisations about how demographic feedbacks interact with climate.

Climate change heats matrix population models.

Metabolic theory predicts that demographic rates can be expressed as a function of environmental temperature. Amarasekare & Coutinho (2013) build a novel matrix model where demographic rates (fertility, mortality, development) vary according to expected rates of climate warming. They challenge recent studies that claim low population viability of tropical species based on rmax estimated from the Euler-Lotka equation, because the latter assumes a constant stage distribution that is unrealistic under fast rates of warming and for organisms with long development. In those cases, the measurement of the temperature responses of life-history traits could be based in niche theory.

Strength of density feedback in census data increases from slow to fast life histories.

Life-history theory predicts an increasing rate of population growth among species arranged along a continuum from slow to fast life histories. We examine the effects of this continuum on density-feedback strength estimated using long-term census data from >700 vertebrates, invertebrates, and plants. Four life-history traits (Age at first reproduction, Body size, Fertility, Longevity) were related statistically to Gompertz strength of density feedback using generalized linear mixed-effects models and multi-model inference. Life-history traits alone explained 10 to 30% of the variation in strength across species (after controlling for time-series length and phylogenetic nonindependence). Effect sizes were largest for body size in mammals and longevity in birds, and density feedback was consistently stronger for smaller-bodied and shorter-lived species. Overcompensatory density feedback (strength <-1) occurred in 20% of species, predominantly at the fast end of the life-history continuum, implying relatively high population variability. These results support the idea that life history leaves an evolutionary signal in long-term population trends as inferred from census data. Where there is a lack of detailed demographic data, broad life-history information can inform management and conservation decisions about rebound capacity from low numbers, and propensity to fluctuate, of arrays of species in areas planned for development, harvesting, protection, and population recovery.

Decoupling of component and ensemble density feedbacks in birds and mammals.

A component density feedback represents the effect of change in population size on single demographic rates, whereas an ensemble density feedback captures that effect on the overall growth rate of a population. Given that a population's growth rate is a synthesis of the interplay of all demographic rates operating in a population, we test the hypothesis that the strength of ensemble density feedback must augment with increasing strength of component density feedback, using long-term censuses of population size, fertility, and survival rates of 109 bird and mammal populations (97 species). We found that compensatory and depensatory component feedbacks were common (each detected in approximately 50% of the demographic rates). However, component feedback strength only explained <10% of the variation in ensemble feedback strength. To explain why, we illustrate the different sources of decoupling between component and ensemble feedbacks. We argue that the management of anthropogenic impacts on populations using component feedbacks alone is ill-advised, just as managing on the basis of ensemble feedbacks without a mechanistic understanding of the contributions made by its components and environmental variability can lead to suboptimal decisions.

Density dependence: an ecological Tower of Babel.

The concept of density dependence represents the effect of changing population size on demographic rates and captures the demographic role of social and trophic mechanisms (e.g. competition, cooperation, parasitism or predation). Ecologists have coined more than 60 terms to denote different statistical and semantic properties of this concept, resulting in a formidable lexicon of synonymies and polysemies. We have examined the vocabulary of density dependence used in the modern ecological literature from the foundational lexicon developed by Smith, Allee, Haldane, Neave and Varley. A few simple rules suffice to abate terminological inconsistency and to enhance the biological meaning of this important concept. Correct citation of original references by ecologists and research journals could ameliorate terminological standards in our discipline and avoid linguistic confusion of mathematically and theoretically complex patterns.

Surrogacía taxonómica en bosque montano andino / Taxonomic surrogacy in andean montane forests

En ecología, los surrogados son variables ambientales o bióticas que representan la biodiversidad de un área. Su uso permite afrontar limitaciones logísticas y/o desconocimiento taxonómico para muestrear e identificar especies, y se ha convertido en una herramienta importante en conservación y gestión. En este trabajo, ilustramos un método de surrogacía basado en ordenaciones multivariadas, y lo aplicamos a datos de cobertura arbórea en el bosque montano de Chanchamayo (Andes, Perú).

Ecological surrogates are environmental or biotic proxies for biodiversity quantification. Their application circumvents logistic constraints and taxonomic voids to sample and identify species, and has become an important tool in conservation and management. In this study, we illustrate a surrogate method using multivariate ordinations, and we apply it to tree data from the Chanchamayo montane forest (Andes, Peru).