Identifying Age Cohorts Responsible for Peste Des Petits Ruminants Virus Transmission among Sheep, Goats, and Cattle in Northern Tanzania.

Peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRV) causes a contagious disease of high morbidity and mortality in global sheep and goat populations. To better control this disease and inform eradication strategies, an improved understanding of how PPRV transmission risk varies by age is needed. Our study used a piece-wise catalytic model to estimate the age-specific force of infection (FOI, per capita infection rate of susceptible hosts) among sheep, goats, and cattle from a cross-sectional serosurvey dataset collected in 2016 in Tanzania. Apparent seroprevalence increased with age, reaching 53.6%, 46.8%, and 11.6% (true seroprevalence: 52.7%, 52.8%, 39.2%) for sheep, goats, and cattle, respectively. Seroprevalence was significantly higher among pastoral animals than agropastoral animals across all ages, with pastoral sheep and goat seroprevalence approaching 70% and 80%, respectively, suggesting pastoral endemicity. The best fitting piece-wise catalytic models merged age groups: two for sheep, three for goats, and four for cattle. The signal of these age heterogeneities were weak, except for a significant FOI peak among 2.5-3.5-year-old pastoral cattle. The subtle age-specific heterogeneities identified in this study suggest that targeting control efforts by age may not be as effective as targeting by other risk factors, such as production system type. Further research should investigate how specific husbandry practices affect PPRV transmission.

Pastoral production is associated with increased peste des petits ruminants seroprevalence in northern Tanzania across sheep, goats and cattle.

Peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRV) causes a contagious disease of high morbidity and mortality in small ruminant populations globally. Using cross-sectional serosurvey data collected in 2016, our study investigated PPRV seroprevalence and risk factors among sheep, goats and cattle in 20 agropastoral (AP) and pastoral (P) villages in northern Tanzania. Overall observed seroprevalence was 21.1% (95% exact confidence interval (CI) 20.1-22.0) with 5.8% seroprevalence among agropastoral (95% CI 5.0-6.7) and 30.7% among pastoral villages (95% CI 29.3-32.0). Seropositivity varied significantly by management (production) system. Our study applied the catalytic framework to estimate the force of infection. The associated reproductive numbers (R0) were estimated at 1.36 (95% CI 1.32-1.39), 1.40 (95% CI 1.37-1.44) and 1.13 (95% CI 1.11-1.14) for sheep, goats and cattle, respectively. For sheep and goats, these R0 values are likely underestimates due to infection-associated mortality. Spatial heterogeneity in risk among pairs of species across 20 villages was significantly positively correlated (R2: 0.59-0.69), suggesting either cross-species transmission or common, external risk factors affecting all species. The non-negligible seroconversion in cattle may represent spillover or cattle-to-cattle transmission and must be investigated further to understand the role of cattle in PPRV transmission ahead of upcoming eradication efforts.

Geographic distribution of hematopoietic cancers in the Nile delta of Egypt.

BACKGROUND: Previous evidence indicated that incidence rates of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) are high in Egypt although little is known about risk factors. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using data from the population-based cancer registry of Gharbiah governorate in Egypt, we assessed the 1999-2005 incidence of hematopoietic cancers (HCs) based on the ICD-O3 by age- and sex-specific urban-rural distribution. RESULTS: NHL showed the highest incidence among all HCs (11.7 per 100 000). Urban incidence of HCs was higher than rural incidence. Incidence rates of Hodgkin's lymphoma (HL) and NHL were high especially among urban males up to the 64-year age category. Rural incidence of HL and NHL was high below age 20. Among the districts of the governorate, we observed NHL incidence pattern similar to that observed for hepatocellular carcinoma because of the possible link to hepatitis C virus for both cancers. Comparison to the published HCs data from Algeria, Cyprus, and Jordan showed the highest NHL rate in Egypt than the other countries in the region. CONCLUSIONS: Future studies should define the role of environmental exposures in hematopoietic carcinogenesis in this population. In-depth studies should also investigate the role of access to health care in the urban-rural variation of HC distribution in this population.