Predicting mutational routes to new adaptive phenotypes.

Predicting evolutionary change poses numerous challenges. Here we take advantage of the model bacterium Pseudomonas fluorescens in which the genotype-to-phenotype map determining evolution of the adaptive 'wrinkly spreader' (WS) type is known. We present mathematical descriptions of three necessary regulatory pathways and use these to predict both the rate at which each mutational route is used and the expected mutational targets. To test predictions, mutation rates and targets were determined for each pathway. Unanticipated mutational hotspots caused experimental observations to depart from predictions but additional data led to refined models. A mismatch was observed between the spectra of WS-causing mutations obtained with and without selection due to low fitness of previously undetected WS-causing mutations. Our findings contribute toward the development of mechanistic models for forecasting evolution, highlight current limitations, and draw attention to challenges in predicting locus-specific mutational biases and fitness effects.

Strong parasitoid-mediated selection in experimental populations of aphids.

Clonal diversity in asexual populations may be maintained if different clones are favoured under different environmental conditions. For aphids, parasitoids are an important variable of the biotic environment. To test whether parasitoids can mediate selection among host clones, we used experimental populations consisting of 10 clones of the peach-potato aphid, Myzus persicae, and allowed them to evolve for several generations either without parasitoids or in the presence of two species of parasitoid wasps. In the absence of parasitoids, strong shifts in clonal frequencies occurred, mostly in favour of clones with high rates of increase. The parasitoid Diaeretiella rapae hardly affected aphid densities but changed the outcome of competition by favouring one entirely resistant clone and disfavouring a highly susceptible clone. Aphidius colemani, the more infective parasitoid, strongly reduced aphid densities and dramatically changed host clonal frequencies. The most resistant clone, not a successful clone without parasitoids, became totally dominant. These results highlight the potential of temporal or spatial variation in parasitoid densities to maintain clonal diversity in their aphid hosts.