Bringing Micro to the Macro: How Citizen Science Data Enrich Geospatial Visualizations to Advance Health Equity.

Social and spatial contexts affect health, and understanding nuances of context is key to informing successful interventions for health equity. Layering mixed methods and mixed scale data sources to visualize patterns of health outcomes facilitates analysis of both broad trends and person-level experiences across time and space. We used micro-scale citizen scientist-collected data from four Bay Area communities along with aggregate epidemiologic and population-level data sets to illustrate barriers to, and facilitators of, physical activity in low-income aging adults. These data integrations highlight the synergistic value added by combining data sources, and what might be missed by relying on either a micro- or macro-level data source alone. Mixed methods and granularity data integration can generate a deeper understanding of environmental context, which in turn can inform more relevant and attainable community, advocacy, and policy improvements.

Cardiovascular Diseases, Medications, and ALS: A Population-Based Case-Control Study.

INTRODUCTION: We investigated the associations between antecedent all-cause CVD diagnoses, cause-specific CVD diagnosis, and CVD medication prescriptions with the risk of developing amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a population-based case-control study of U.S. Medicare enrollees from 2006 to 2013. The final sample included 3,714 incident ALS cases and 18,570 controls (matched on age, sex, enrollment length, and county). Information was collected from Medicare Parts A, B, and D administrative claims data on hypertension, ischemic heart disease, heart failure, acute myocardial infarction, atrial fibrillation, prescriptions of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, angiotensin II receptors blockers, calcium channel blockers, beta blockers, and antiarrhythmics. Associations were evaluated using conditional logistic regression adjusting for age, sex, race/ethnicity, geographical location, alcohol and tobacco use, and socioeconomic status. RESULTS: The odds ratio (OR) for having one or more ICD-9 codes for any cardiovascular disease diagnosis at least 24 months prior to the date of ALS diagnosis was 0.85 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.78-0.92). Cardiovascular conditions that were inversely associated with ALS included heart failure (OR = 0.79; 95% CI 0.70-0.89), atrial fibrillation (OR = 0.81; 95% CI 0.77-0.92), and hypertension (OR = 0.91; 95% CI 0.84-0.98). Exposures to several classes of cardiovascular medications were inversely associated with ALS risk even after adjusting for confounding by indication, including ACE inhibitors (OR = 0.84, 95% CI 0.77-0.91), calcium channel blockers (OR = 0.64, 95% CI 0.59-0.70), and beta blockers (OR = 0.76, 95% CI 0.71-0.83). DISCUSSION/CONCLUSION: These findings merit additional research, including animal studies and pilot clinical trials, to further evaluate and evidence the effects of ACEIs, CCBs, and BBs on the risk of developing and clinical expression of ALS.

The timed 25-foot walk in a large cohort of multiple sclerosis patients.

BACKGROUND: The timed 25-foot walk (T25FW) is a key clinical outcome measure in multiple sclerosis patient management and clinical research. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate T25FW performance and factors associated with its change in the Multiple Sclerosis Outcome Assessments Consortium (MSOAC) Placebo Database (n = 2465). METHODS: We created confirmed disability progression (CDP) variables for T25FW and Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) outcomes. We used intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) and Bland Altman plots to evaluate reliability. We evaluated T25FW changes and predictive validity using a mixed-effects model, survival analysis, and nested case-control analysis. RESULTS: The mean baseline score for the T25FW in this study population was 9.2 seconds, median = 6.1 (standard deviation = 11.0, interquartile range (IQR) = 4.8, 9.0). The T25FW measure demonstrated excellent test-retest reliability (ICC = 0.98). Walk times increased with age, disability, disease type, and disease duration; relapses were not associated with an increase. Patients with T25FW progression had a faster time to EDSS-CDP compared to those without (hazards ratio (HR): 2.6; confidence interval (CI): 2.2, 3.1). Changes in the T25FW were more likely to precede changes in EDSS. CONCLUSION: This research confirms the association of the T25FW with disability and provides some evidence of predictive validity. Our findings support the continued use of the T25FW in clinical practice and clinical trials.

Association Between Income Inequality and County-Level COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in the US.

Importance: Socioeconomically marginalized communities have been disproportionately affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Income inequality may be a risk factor for SARS-CoV-2 infection and death from COVID-19. Objective: To evaluate the association between county-level income inequality and COVID-19 cases and deaths from March 2020 through February 2021 in bimonthly time epochs. Design, Setting, and Participants: This ecological cohort study used longitudinal data on county-level COVID-19 cases and deaths from March 1, 2020, through February 28, 2021, in 3220 counties from all 50 states, Puerto Rico, and the District of Columbia. Main Outcomes and Measures: County-level daily COVID-19 case and death data from March 1, 2020, through February 28, 2021, were extracted from the COVID-19 Data Repository by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, Maryland. Exposure: The Gini coefficient, a measure of unequal income distribution (presented as a value between 0 and 1, where 0 represents a perfectly equal geographical region where all income is equally shared and 1 represents a perfectly unequal society where all income is earned by 1 individual), and other county-level data were obtained primarily from the 2014 to 2018 American Community Survey 5-year estimates. Covariates included median proportions of poverty, age, race/ethnicity, crowding given by occupancy per room, urbanicity and rurality, educational level, number of physicians per 100 000 individuals, state, and mask use at the county level. Results: As of February 28, 2021, on average, each county recorded a median of 8891 cases of COVID-19 per 100 000 individuals (interquartile range, 6935-10 666 cases per 100 000 individuals) and 156 deaths per 100 000 individuals (interquartile range, 94-228 deaths per 100 000 individuals). The median county-level Gini coefficient was 0.44 (interquartile range, 0.42-0.47). There was a positive correlation between Gini coefficients and county-level COVID-19 cases (Spearman ρ = 0.052; P < .001) and deaths (Spearman ρ = 0.134; P < .001) during the study period. This association varied over time; each 0.05-unit increase in Gini coefficient was associated with an adjusted relative risk of COVID-19 deaths: 1.25 (95% CI, 1.17-1.33) in March and April 2020, 1.20 (95% CI, 1.13-1.28) in May and June 2020, 1.46 (95% CI, 1.37-1.55) in July and August 2020, 1.04 (95% CI, 0.98-1.10) in September and October 2020, 0.76 (95% CI, 0.72-0.81) in November and December 2020, and 1.02 (95% CI, 0.96-1.07) in January and February 2021 (P < .001 for interaction). The adjusted association of the Gini coefficient with COVID-19 cases also reached a peak in July and August 2020 (relative risk, 1.28 [95% CI, 1.22-1.33]). Conclusions and Relevance: This study suggests that income inequality within US counties was associated with more cases and deaths due to COVID-19 in the summer months of 2020. The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the vast disparities that exist in health outcomes owing to income inequality in the US. Targeted interventions should be focused on areas of income inequality to both flatten the curve and lessen the burden of inequality.

Approximate Bayesian computation for spatial SEIR(S) epidemic models.

Approximate Bayesia n Computation (ABC) provides an attractive approach to estimation in complex Bayesian inferential problems for which evaluation of the kernel of the posterior distribution is impossible or computationally expensive. These highly parallelizable techniques have been successfully applied to many fields, particularly in cases where more traditional approaches such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) are impractical. In this work, we demonstrate the application of approximate Bayesian inference to spatially heterogeneous Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) stochastic epidemic models. These models have a tractable posterior distribution, however MCMC techniques nevertheless become computationally infeasible for moderately sized problems. We discuss the practical implementation of these techniques via the open source ABSEIR package for R. The performance of ABC relative to traditional MCMC methods in a small problem is explored under simulation, as well as in the spatially heterogeneous context of the 2014 epidemic of Chikungunya in the Americas.