Multi-cancer risk stratification based on national health data: a retrospective modelling and validation study.

BACKGROUND: Health care is experiencing a drive towards digitisation, and many countries are implementing national health data resources. Although a range of cancer risk models exists, the utility on a population level for risk stratification across cancer types has not been fully explored. We aimed to close this gap by evaluating pan-cancer risk models built on electronic health records across the Danish population with validation in the UK Biobank. METHODS: In this retrospective modelling and validation study, data for model development and internal validation were derived from the following Danish health registries: the Central Person Registry, the Danish National Patient Registry, the death registry, the cancer registry, and full-text medical records from secondary care records in the capital region. The development data included adults aged 16-86 years without previous malignant cancers in the time period from Jan 1, 1995, to Dec 31, 2014. The internal validation period was from Jan 1, 2015, to April 10, 2018, and the data included all adults without a previous indication of cancer aged 16-75 years on Dec 31, 2014. The external validation cohort from the UK Biobank included all adults without a previous indication of cancer aged 50-75 years. We used time-dependent Bayesian Cox hazard models built on the combined medical history of Danish individuals. A set of 1392 covariates from available clinical disease trajectories, text-mined basic health factors, and family histories were used to train predictive models of 20 major cancer types. The models were validated on cancer incidence between 2015 and 2018 across Denmark and on individuals in the UK Biobank. The primary outcomes were discrimination and calibration performance. FINDINGS: From the Danish registries, we included 6 732 553 individuals covering 60 million hospital visits, 90 million diagnoses, and a total of 193 million life-years between Jan 1, 1978, and April 10, 2018. Danish registry data covering the period from Jan 1, 2015, to April 10, 2018, were used to internally validate risk models, containing a total of 4 248 491 individuals who remained at risk of a primary malignant cancer diagnosis and 67 401 cancer cases recorded. For the external validation, we evaluated the same time period in the UK Biobank covering 377 004 individuals with 11 486 cancer cases. The predictive performance of the models on Danish data showed good discrimination (concordance index 0·81 [SD 0·08], ranging from 0·66 [95% CI 0·65-0·67] for cervix uteri cancer to 0·91 [0·90-0·92] for liver cancer). Performance was similar on the UK Biobank in a direct transfer when controlling for shifts in the age distribution (concordance index 0·66 [SD 0·08], ranging from 0·55 [95% CI 0·44-0·66] for cervix uteri cancer to 0·78 [0·77-0·79] for lung cancer). Cancer risks were associated, in addition to heritable components, with a broad range of preceding diagnoses and health factors. The best overall performance was seen for cancers of the digestive system (oesophageal, stomach, colorectal, liver, and pancreatic) but also thyroid, kidney, and uterine cancers. INTERPRETATION: Data available in national electronic health databases can be used to approximate cancer risk factors and enable risk predictions in most cancer types. Model predictions generalise between the Danish and UK health-care systems. With the emergence of multi-cancer early detection tests, electronic health record-based risk models could supplement screening efforts. FUNDING: Novo Nordisk Foundation and the Danish Innovation Foundation.

Pancreatic cancer symptom trajectories from Danish registry data and free text in electronic health records.

Pancreatic cancer is one of the deadliest cancer types with poor treatment options. Better detection of early symptoms and relevant disease correlations could improve pancreatic cancer prognosis. In this retrospective study, we used symptom and disease codes (ICD-10) from the Danish National Patient Registry (NPR) encompassing 6.9 million patients from 1994 to 2018,, of whom 23,592 were diagnosed with pancreatic cancer. The Danish cancer registry included 18,523 of these patients. To complement and compare the registry diagnosis codes with deeper clinical data, we used a text mining approach to extract symptoms from free text clinical notes in electronic health records (3078 pancreatic cancer patients and 30,780 controls). We used both data sources to generate and compare symptom disease trajectories to uncover temporal patterns of symptoms prior to pancreatic cancer diagnosis for the same patients. We show that the text mining of the clinical notes was able to complement the registry-based symptoms by capturing more symptoms prior to pancreatic cancer diagnosis. For example, 'Blood pressure reading without diagnosis', 'Abnormalities of heartbeat', and 'Intestinal obstruction' were not found for the registry-based analysis. Chaining symptoms together in trajectories identified two groups of patients with lower median survival (<90 days) following the trajectories 'Cough→Jaundice→Intestinal obstruction' and 'Pain→Jaundice→Abnormal results of function studies'. These results provide a comprehensive comparison of the two types of pancreatic cancer symptom trajectories, which in combination can leverage the full potential of the health data and ultimately provide a fuller picture for detection of early risk factors for pancreatic cancer.

Pancreatic cancer is one of the deadliest cancer types. Scientists predict it will become the second largest cause of cancer-related deaths in 2030. It has few or no symptoms at early stages and often goes undetected for an extended period. As a result, patients are often diagnosed at an advanced stage when they have few treatment options and lower survival rates. Only 11 percent of patients with pancreatic cancer survive five years past their diagnosis. Earlier detection and surgery to remove the tumor increase patient survival to 42% at five years. Those who undergo surgery at the earliest stage have an 84% survival rate at five years. Developing ways to screen for and detect pancreatic cancer early could improve patient survival. Identifying early symptoms is critical. So far, studies show links between weight loss, abdominal pain, lower back pain, and new-onset diabetes and pancreatic cancer. But clinicians often overlook these symptoms or do not associate them with cancer. National health registries may be data sources that scientists can use to zoom in on early pancreatic symptoms and create alerts for clinicians. Hjaltelin, Novitski et al. identified potential pancreatic cancer symptoms using patient registry data and electronic health records. Hjaltelin, Novitski et al. extracted potential pancreatic cancer-related disease or symptom trajectories from 7 million patients listed in the Danish National Patient Registry. They also scoured clinical notes in 34,000 patients' electronic health records for symptoms. The electronic health records yielded more promising symptoms than the registry. But both data sources produced complementary information. The analysis showed that some symptoms, like jaundice, were associated with higher survival rates because they may lead to earlier diagnosis. The data so far suggest that symptoms leading up to a pancreatic cancer diagnosis may be nonspecific and not occur in a particular order. As the cancer progresses, symptoms may become more specific and severe. Further assessment of the study's results is necessary. Tools like artificial intelligence or advanced text mining may allow scientists identify more definitive early symptom trajectories and help clinicians identify patients earlier.

Reduced vitamin D-induced cathelicidin production and killing of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in macrophages from a patient with a non-functional vitamin D receptor: A case report.

Tuberculosis (TB) presents a serious health problem with approximately a quarter of the world's population infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M. tuberculosis) in an asymptomatic latent state of which 5-10% develops active TB at some point in their lives. The antimicrobial protein cathelicidin has broad antimicrobial activity towards viruses and bacteria including M. tuberculosis. Vitamin D increases the expression of cathelicidin in many cell types including macrophages, and it has been suggested that the vitamin D-mediated antimicrobial activity against M. tuberculosis is dependent on the induction of cathelicidin. However, unraveling the immunoregulatory effects of vitamin D in humans is hampered by the lack of suitable experimental models. We have previously described a family in which members suffer from hereditary vitamin D-resistant rickets (HVDRR). The family carry a mutation in the DNA-binding domain of the vitamin D receptor (VDR). This mutation leads to a non-functional VDR, meaning that vitamin D cannot exert its effect in family members homozygous for the mutation. Studies of HVDRR patients open unique possibilities to gain insight in the immunoregulatory roles of vitamin D in humans. Here we describe the impaired ability of macrophages to produce cathelicidin in a HVDRR patient, who in her adolescence suffered from extrapulmonary TB. The present case is a rare experiment of nature, which illustrates the importance of vitamin D in the pathophysiology of combating M. tuberculosis.

Identification of hyper-rewired genomic stress non-oncogene addiction genes across 15 cancer types.

Non-oncogene addiction (NOA) genes are essential for supporting the stress-burdened phenotype of tumours and thus vital for their survival. Although NOA genes are acknowledged to be potential drug targets, there has been no large-scale attempt to identify and characterise them as a group across cancer types. Here we provide the first method for the identification of conditional NOA genes and their rewired neighbours using a systems approach. Using copy number data and expression profiles from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) we performed comparative analyses between high and low genomic stress tumours for 15 cancer types. We identified 101 condition-specific differential coexpression modules, mapped to a high-confidence human interactome, comprising 133 candidate NOA rewiring hub genes. We observe that most modules lose coexpression in the high-stress state and that activated stress modules and hubs take part in homoeostasis maintenance processes such as chromosome segregation, oxireductase activity, mitotic checkpoint (PLK1 signalling), DNA replication initiation and synaptic signalling. We furthermore show that candidate NOA rewiring hubs are unique for each cancer type, but that their respective rewired neighbour genes largely are shared across cancer types.